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| As the legislative year comes to a close, it's time to take yet another look at the performance of the Welsh Government and opposition. (Pic : cityofcardiff.com) |
Carwyn Jones (Lab, Bridgend)
First Minister & Minister for the Welsh Language
C+ overall; D Welsh language (C for effort)
Until the torrid last fortnight, the First Minister had rarely been seriously challenged in the Senedd - except on specific issues in Bridgend which could have been embarrassing, as well as stalled work on the Williams Commission. You can argue there should've been a full cabinet reshuffle this month as the splitting of Alun Davies' old portfolio is clunky - though it's been said a full reshuffle before 2016 is likely.
I believe the heart's there when it comes to the Welsh language. It's just Y Gynhadledd Fawr didn't tell us anything we didn't already know. Despite all that's been said there's been very little evidence of action, leading to the (rather ineffectual) protests from Cymdeithas yr Iaith. Welsh language campaigners have always been an awkward squad, but Carwyn's lucky it's not the 1960s anymore. I'm sure his recent Twitter "spat" underlines to him how much of an uphill battle he's got here.
You can argue that May's results were disappointing for Labour, who seemed confident they would take two seats without putting any work in. UKIP's surge caught them off guard and it's also reflected in recent polling which suggests Labour could lose seats in 2016. They neglect the fact that a lot of people aren't happy with what they're doing in Wales and, yes, they're just as likely to lose votes to UKIP too.The opposition
Huw Lewis (Lab, Merthyr Tydfil & Rhymney)
Minister for Education
C+
There've been three big problems Huw Lewis has had to deal with with year, two of which he inherited. The first being the poor PISA results, which resulted in the extensive OECD investigation. The second was a significant increase in the amount spent to fund Welsh tuition fee policies. Somehow, Huw managed to kick a review of higher education funding into touch and we won't see the results of the Diamond Review until September 2016.
His response to January's GCSE marking row showed a willingness to act quickly under pressure and to accept criticism gracefully. His decision to create a separate law on special education needs also showed he was prepared to listen to committees and AMs. He has a lot on his plate, obviously, but I'd argue that he's coping with it relatively well. Education's still a results game, though.
Edwina Hart (Lab, Gower)
Minister for the Economy, Science & Transport
B
It's hard for Edwina Hart to take all the credit, but she's certainly playing a role in the fleeting semblance of an economic recovery taking place in Wales, with unemployment now below the UK average. The main developments in her portfolio this year have been the early groundwork laid for the South Wales Metro scheme – which is about 10 years overdue – and the creation of city regions. Another major coup was managing to get Pinewood Studios to set up a base in Wales.
She's a worker, not a shirker, but it remains to be seen if other flagship policies like her version of enterprise zones are going to bear fruit. Also – even speaking as a rather private person myself, and especially after Wednesday's announcement – I believe she needs to do more to keep the rest of the Assembly informed of what she's up to outside the chamber. She's a poor communicator, but good at her job.
Jane Hutt (Lab, Vale of Glamorgan)
Minister for Finance
C+
Quite a bit of work's been done to increase procurement from Welsh-based companies. Though it's disappointing that, in an election year, more hasn't been done/said regarding the future of EU funds in Wales, which even senior Labour figures are beginning to feel haven't been used wisely. I don't think Jane has been forceful enough on the "lockstep provisions" in the Wales Bill either, which has now simply become something to bash the opposition with.
These remain straightened times for the Welsh budget, and Jane Hutt is continuing to do a reasonable enough job without pulling any rabbits out of hats. She did, however, dish out a tough deal to Welsh local government and further education colleges in the 2014-15 budget which seemed harsh in some respects.
Mark Drakeford (Lab, Cardiff West)
Minister for Health & Social Services
D (C for effort)
Another year where the Welsh NHS stumbles from problem to problem.
It's clear Mark's made an impact, but not to such an extent that the issues plaguing health services have been turned around. We're still waiting for progress in ambulance response times, mortality rates and the future of certain specialist services. Considering his background, I would've expected him to have understood the need for evidence-based laws too, which is a shame.
He's so far resisted Welsh Conservative calls for a "Keogh-style inquiry". I'd agree that a full blown public inquiry is unnecessary because action is more important than another bloody panel or committee - but we're one big tragedy or scandal away from it.
Even if Mark remains the best-suited person for the job, his response (or lack of) to concerns from families affected by problems in Abertawe Bro Morgannwg health board, and campaigners from Pembrokeshire, verged on a high-handed arrogance which is – unfortunately – becoming typical behaviour from Welsh ministers.
Lesley Griffiths (Lab, Wrexham)
Minister for Local Government & Leader of the House
C+
In terms of local government, this year's been dominated by the budget cuts and the Williams Commission, both of which Lesley seemed to play second fiddle to the First Minister and Jane Hutt in terms of being the public face. Ultimately, it'll be her responsibility to implement those recommendations and manage angry council chiefs – which will be a challenge in itself.
I welcome the ongoing commitments made to increase transparency in local government - things like webcasts and social media use in council chambers. There was also a major report into improving the diversity of local government, though it remains to be seen if anything will actually happen as a result. The Welsh Government's reasonable track record in dealing with community safety continues with the pledge for 500 extra PCSOs met and sustained, albeit being an underwhelming pledge in itself.
Carl Sargeant (Lab, Alyn & Deeside)
Minister for Housing & Regeneration
B-
Carl's dished out quite a bit of regeneration funding, including (the slightly controversial) Vibrant and Viable Places. The Welsh Government clearly want results this time round and don't want to hand out grants and funds for the sake of it.
He's also overseen the passage of the comprehensive Housing Act. It's not everyone's cup of tea, but he's shown a clear commitment to reducing homelessness and an unyielding commitment to addressing domestic abuse – the new Bill being very much his baby, I suppose.
His management of the planning system is likely to become a thorn in his side, as controversy continues over Local Development Plans and opencast mining. The forthcoming Planning Bill looks set to centralise decision-making in light of planning still being – in many respects – only part-devolved. It's right to question whether Welsh priorities are relevant here or are being thrown aside as part of EnglandandWales?
Jeff Cuthbert (Lab, Caerphilly)
Minister for Communities & Tackling Poverty
C
A minister struggling to find a purpose, though that's not entirely his fault. He's done some good work on credit unions, which seem to become bigger year by year. However, cuts to Funky Dragon risk undermining the National Assembly's engagement with youth at large.
The Well-being of Future Generations Bill – which really should've been up there as one of the most important pieces of legislation in the Assembly's history – turned out to be a woolly disappointment. I was also surprised at his negative attitude to the "FinEdBill" which would, in part, complement his brief and what he's trying to do.
Presumably, policing will eventually fall under this portfolio (if it's devolved on time) and that will increase the visibility and importance of this cabinet position. Until then, although he means well he can't really do much and a lot of his ministerial functions seem to cross over with local government. It's a confused portfolio that needs a firmer sense of purpose more in chime with devolved powers as all the big levers are reserved to Westminster.
John Griffiths (Lab, Newport East)
Minister for Culture
C
This portfolio has certainly been the Welsh Government's blind spot due to the challenging environment caused by harsh cuts to local authority budgets and wider austerity – where the arts, sport and culture are almost always the first up on the chopping board; a situation that's continued unabated.
He's clearly getting out and about and seems to be balancing many plates with skill. John also seems keen to listen to the rest of the Assembly. But you get the impression he's under pressure to try and deliver things he knows he won't be able to deliver, so he sits on the fence too often. He was perhaps always more comfortable with the environment brief and that's probably why it was given back to him.
Alun Davies (Lab, Blaenau Gwent)
(Former) Minister for Food & Natural Resources
F
A mixed record - that displayed both his strengths and weaknesses - has been tarnished by a few moments of rank stupidity.
Theodore Huckle QC
Counsel General
B
He's been a busy guy it's fair to say, and now has two Supreme Court "victories" under his belt with the third case on the way. AMs are starting to make better use of their opportunity to question him in plenary, though Simon Thomas AM (Plaid, Mid & West Wales) remains the most likely person to put him on the spot.
After the big UK reshuffle, he's outlasted his Whitehall "adversary" Dominic Grieve QC, though that could be because the Prime Minister was getting fed up with losing court cases to the Welsh Government. It remains to be seen whether new Attorney General, Jeremy Wright, will be more forceful in future encounters. Until we have a reserved powers model, further call-ins of Welsh laws are inevitable.
Junior Ministers
Gwenda Thomas (Lab, Neath)
Deputy Minister for Children & Social Services
B-
The Social Services and Wellbeing Act 2014 is the most challenging and complex law since devolution, and the proposed bill on Social Service Regulation promised to be another one. It's led to the creation of a new National Adoption Service and guarantees minimum rights for carers – Wales' unsung heroes. Gwenda's also overseen the transfer of care for the elderly from hospital to the community – but this hasn't been done urgently enough, leading to negative story lines and serious failures in hospital care. Another solid, but very testing year.
Vaughan Gething (Lab, Cardiff S. & Penarth)
Deputy Minister for Tackling Poverty
C+
He suffers from the same problem as his reporting minister Jeff Cuthbert. It's a small department with a small budget but an important remit. It's hard to tell what Vaughan actually does, but it appears to boil down to the micromanagement of schemes like Flying Start – though he appears to be making very good progress there.
He's shown inside and outside the Senedd chamber that he's a very capable and confident public speaker – something of a rarity in Welsh politics - but he needs a bit more time in the ministerial incubator. He'll almost certainly be bumped up to a more senior cabinet position prior to 2016 in order to properly challenge him, as you get the impression he isn't being so at the moment.
Ken Skates (Lab, Clwyd South)
Deputy Minister for Skills
B+
A quiet success story, overseeing a significant increase in the number of apprenticeships and successful job applicants through Jobs Growth Wales, playing a big part in reducing overall unemployment levels – albeit with youth unemployment still remaining relatively high.There was recent criticism that Jobs Growth Wales isn't reaching those most in need of a job or training – but all in all he's performing well, added to by the recent announcement of a new 10 year plan to address skills shortages in the private sector.
It's good to focus on vocational skills and apprenticeships but the Welsh Government should start thinking about graduates and postgraduates. Cuts to Young Enterprise could be a backwards step and he seems too fond on using Assemblese. He definitely looks the more likely of the "newbies" to make the step up to a full ministerial post at the moment.
Opposition Leaders
Andrew Davies (Con, South Wales Central)
C+
I'm sure many people will disagree, but compared to previous years this has been a good one for the Leader of the Opposition. He had a very strong end to the Assembly year, and came into his own during the recent debate on safe standing.
I don't question for a moment his sincerity on the NHS. It's just after seeing what's happening in England, it's not as if the Conservatives can be trusted to run the NHS properly either. The failings are almost identical just with different numbers involved. The Welsh Tory housing proposals seemed, in some respects, odd and based off poor maths. While a campaign against junk mail seemed whimsical. He's also perhaps way too easy to wind up compared to the more calm disposition of the First Minister.
Back in February it looked like he was a goner after the sudden sacking of four shadow cabinet members (subsequently reinstated) over the "lockstep" row. He was criticised for both the sackings and the manner by which he did it, but as I said at the time he was left with no other choice.
He's been half-vindicated by recent developments with regard Scotland (they won't have a "lockstep"), further added to by David Jones' exit from UK cabinet. If that had rumbled on another year I would've been surprised to see him lead the Welsh Tories into the 2016 elections, but his position is arguably stronger than ever now.
Leanne Wood (Plaid, South Wales Central)
B- personally; C party
July 2013 : "My gut instinct tells me the coming year will be tough, but manageable".
I was probably right. Plaid had made little progress in the polls until recently but, to be fair, they haven't gone backwards either. They also managed to get another set of budget concessions though (alongside the Lib Dems), a convincing by-election win on Anglesey and are producing a steady stream of good policy ideas and proposed laws. Leanne also made the right decision to streamline her "cabinet".
You don't last in frontline politics for 40 years unless you've got something between your ears, so Dafydd Elis-Thomas AM (Plaid, Dwyfor Meirionnydd) was correct, just his usual self. The attack on UKIP at the party's spring conference was miscalculated, and in hindsight there's irony in that UKIP's strong performance saved Jill Evans' seat – to a great deal of relief, I'd imagine.
Plaid are now part of the same "establishment elite" anti-politics voters turning to UKIP are railing against, exemplified to a certain extent by the classic groupthink in relation to Michael Haggett. They can't keep counting on their increasingly demographically-squeezed heartland vote to sweep them home either, while they're always outnumbered in the south and north east.
Next year looks promising in terms of target seats, but if Plaid want to seriously challenge in 2016, they need to stop looking in the mirror - basking in their inflated self-esteem as a party - and see May's result as a much needed kick up the arse before the electorate kicks it for them. Pride comes before a fall and all that.
Kirsty Williams (Lib Dem, Brecon & Radnor)
B personally; D party
Kirsty Williams has consistently proven to be a capable stateswoman, arguably being the most effective opposition leader in terms of picking apart the Welsh Government. She also won a ballot and will introduce a law on minimum nursing levels in hospitals – and I'll come back to that when the Bill's introduced.
Unfortunately, her party's prospects aren't looking good due to the metastasis of the very deadly cleggoma and secondary infection of dannyalexanderitis. I suppose the most galling aspect of that is that Lib Dem AMs haven't really put a foot wrong and have usually been pretty good at holding ministers to account.
You can't really read much from the European elections as the Lib Dems have always performed poorly, but it's not looking good for them in 2015 or 2016. It would be a shame if Kirsty is left a party of one – losing very capable AMs in the process - as the Welsh electorate sends the clowns in to Cardiff Bay.
Special Mention : The latest Standards Commissioner report (pdf) showed that there were no admissible complaints about AMs in the year April 2013- March 2014. I don't know if they deserve a gold sticker or a trip to Folly Farm or something....
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