Senedd Watch - May 2013

• The Welsh Government introduced the Further & Higher Education (Governance and Information) Bill. The Bill grants further education colleges powers to merge, dissolve themselves and change their governance arrangements. If passed, Welsh Ministers will also be supplied data relevant to student finance from HMRC.
• During a Welsh Conservative debate, Shadow Health Spokesman, Darren Millar AM (Con, Clwyd West), suggested issuing fines for missed NHS appointments. Although Health Minister Mark Drakeford (Lab, Cardiff West) agreed the public needed to take more responsibility, other AMs attacked the suggestion as “simplistic”.
• The Assembly's Standards Committee published a report into lobbying at the National Assembly. They recommended a new code of conduct for AMs' work with lobbyists, rejecting a lobbyist register. They also recommended new rules for Cross-Party Groups to improve transparency and record-keeping.
• The Standards Committee also recommended a series of changes to sanctions used against AMs - including withdrawal of privileges and suspension without pay - following a review into standards procedures.
• The Welsh Government suspended a proposed Control of Dogs Bill, opting to work with the UK Government to develop joint legislation. Natural Resources and Food Minister, Alun Davies (Lab, Blaenau Gwent), said a Welsh-only bill could be revived if no agreement was reached. Julie Morgan AM (Lab, Cardiff North) – who campaigned for a Welsh law – expressed disappointment at the decision.
• The delayed Anglesey local council election on May 2^nd produced an inconclusive result. Plaid Cymru became the single largest group, winning 12 seats (out of 30), topping the poll with 32% of the vote. However, four Independent groups claimed the most seats between them, winning 14. A coalition deal between Independents and Labour was announced on May 9^th. Local Government Minister, Lesley Griffiths (Lab, Wrexham), announced Welsh Government intervention in the local authority would end on May 31^st.
• UKIP MEP for Wales, John Bufton - who is standing down in 2014 - claimed his party were capable of winning National Assembly seats following a good showing in English local authority elections. UKIP won 7% of the popular vote in Anglesey, pushing the Welsh Conservatives into last place.
• Plaid Cymru MP Hywel Williams said Wales misses out on up to £21million in research and development funding annually from the UK's seven research councils. He suggested Wales establish its own research council to work to Welsh priorities.
• The National Assembly passed a motion demanding action following Prof. Siobhan McClelland's report into ambulance services – which have failed to meet response targets - highlighting critical problems within the Wales Ambulance Service Trust. Before the debate, the Health Minister announced £9.5million of ambulance fleet upgrades.
• Finance Minister Jane Hutt (Lab, Vale of Glamorgan) announced a £76.5million capital investment package on May 7th, including : £30million towards improving housing supply for counteract any threat from the UK Government's “bedroom tax”, a £25million investment in schools, £10million towards flood protection and £11.5million towards a new railway station for Ebbw Vale.
• The Queen's Speech outlined proposed legislation to reform Assembly elections, including five year terms, the lifting of a ban on jointly standing in constituencies and regions, and banning AMs from being MPs at the same time. Labour criticised the proposals as a “lucky losers bill” as it would perceivably benefit opposition parties.
• Communities and Tackling Poverty Minister Huw Lewis (Lab, Merthyr Tydfil & Rhymney) told the Assembly's Enterprise & Business Committee that the UK Government's universal credit threatened entitlements due to eligibility changes. He described it as “a potential car crash”. Plaid Cymru said the Welsh Government's anti-poverty plans were in “disarray” , as it was unclear what the Welsh Government intended to do in response. On May 14^th, the minister announced an extra £19million towards the “Flying Start” childcare scheme, which runs 140 projects.
• Ken Skates AM (Lab, Clwyd South) suggested the National Eisteddfod could be hosted in an English city as part of the festival's “modernisation” process, taking advantage of ex-pat communities.
• Plaid Cymru Economy Spokesperson and former Heritage Minister, Alun Ffred Jones AM, became the second senior Plaid politician to announce they were standing down in 2016, having represented Arfon since 2003.
• Darren Millar AM called on the Welsh Government to scrap plans to reduce the number of A&E departments in south Wales after “unprecedented” demand for emergency services, calling the proposal – The South Wales Programme - “unacceptable”. The First Minister said, “talk of a crisis....is the time to change things. Doing nothing's not an option.”
• The South Wales Programme was unveiled by five local health boards in south Wales and Powys on May 22nd. The preferred option for hospital reorganisation – out of four - would see Royal Glamorgan Hospital in Llantrisant lose its specialist A&E, children's and maternity services. The plans are open to public consultation until July 2013.
• The UK Government published a draft Bill for an “in-out referendum” on UK membership of the European Union, to be held by the end of 2017. Senior Welsh Conservative MPs and AMs – including Darren Millar AM and Paul Davies AM (Con, Preseli Pembrokeshire) - said they would vote no if the referendum were held at present. The First Minister said the European debate “hijacked” the Queen's Speech, warning that “Welsh farming would end” if £350million of EU funds disappeared.
• Unemployment in Wales fell by 6,000 in the three months to March 2013 to stand at 8.2%, compared to the UK average of 7.8%.
• The Welsh Government dropped plans to relax film industry rules regarding smoking indoors, following evidence provided to an Assembly Task and Finish Group. Elin Jones AM (Plaid, Ceredigion) welcomed the decision, however the Welsh Conservatives claimed it could harm the creative industries in Wales, saying the Welsh Government had, “caved in to political pressure.”
• Lynne Neagle AM (Lab, Torfaen) demanded - on behalf of local campaigners - that the Welsh Government block plans for an open-cast mine near Blaenavon, which were provisionally approved by the Welsh Government. Campaigners believe the proposed mine violates the 500 metre exclusion zone in the controversial Mineral Technical Advice Note (MTAN) guidance.
• The Assembly approved a motion without amendment by Jenny Rathbone AM (Lab, Cardiff Central) calling on the Welsh Government to raise awareness of risks associated with high-caffeine “energy drinks” being available to children.
• Llywydd Rosemary Butler (Lab, Newport West) expressed concerns that Welsh democracy was “damaged” by a perceived Anglo-centric focus by the media, reducing coverage on Welsh matters. In the first of a series of conferences, media experts and professionals criticised AMs' lack of engagement during Senedd debates.
• The Social Services & Well-being Bill was criticised by the Welsh Local Government Association, who believe claims it would be “cost neutral” don't hold up to closer scrutiny. Similar concerns were expressed by the NHS Confederation. Deputy Minister for Children & Social Services, Gwenda Thomas (Lab, Neath) said “transitional funding” would be available, but disagreed that there would be any additional costs.
• Housing and Regeneration Minister, Carl Sargeant (Lab, Alyn & Deeside), published a White Paper on rent legislation, proposing two simple types of tenancy arrangements, and measures aimed at helping landlords combat anti-social behaviour as well as protect domestic violence victims. Shelter Cymru described it as a “step forward”, however the Residential Landlords Association were concerned that the costs of legislation could be better used building houses.
• Education Minister Leighton Andrews (Lab, Rhondda) announced that parents of regularly truant children will be fined £120 from September 2013. Opposition politicians called the move “lazy” and a “retrograde step”. Teaching unions were also worried it could undermine successful attempts at reducing truancy.
• The Legislative and Constitutional Affairs Committee criticised the Welsh Government's handling of changes to council tax benefits in December 2012, saying that there was confusion between the political process and legislative process, as well as a lack of communication between Cardiff and Westminster. The Assembly was recalled from Christmas recess to debate new regulations as a result of the problems.
• Leighton Andrews said he would explore joint regulation of exams with Northern Ireland after English Education Secretary, Michael Gove, said differences between the devolved nations and England made separate exam systems inevitable. Simon Thomas AM (Plaid, Mid & West Wales) called for an independent Welsh exam regulator to be established “as soon as possible” to “restore confidence” in the Welsh exams system.
• First Minister Carwyn Jones announced that Cardiff University will lead a consortium of organisations and groups that will form a Public Policy Institute, which was originally put out to tender in August 2012 as a 2011 Welsh Labour manifesto commitment.
• The Assembly's Enterprise and Business Committee published their integrated transport inquiry report, calling for the devolution of certain rail, bus regulatory and infrastructure powers, an integrated ticketing system and the possible creation of Passenger Transport Executives to run public transport.
• The Welsh Government announced that a non-emergency “111” service for the NHS would be launched in Wales, despite concerns about an equivalent service in England, which has currently failed to cope with demand.
• Referral targets for urgent cancer treatment were missed, despite a pledge from the First Minister that they would be met by March 2013. 84% of urgent cancer patients saw a specialist within 62 days, despite a target of 95%. The Welsh Government blamed severe weather, and said the overall trend had improved. Targets for ambulance response times were also missed, but with an improvement on previous months.
• Plaid Cymru leader, Leanne Wood, called for new trains to be provided following rail electrification, rather than “hand-me-down” rolling stock. The Welsh Government said they'll work to, “ensure the best deal for Wales.”

Projects announced in May include : £1.6million in European funding towards a seabed tidal energy scheme in Pembrokeshire, £160million from the Welsh Government towards a £400million affordable housing building programme of 7,500 units by 2016, a re-routing of the proposed Caernarfon bypass (which could save up to £10million), £1.5million towards wildlife protection, a £10million Property Development Fund and a £40million 3-16 y.o. “super school” in Neath Port Talbot.

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Active Travel Bill - Learning lessons from elsewhere

"Build it and they won't come?"
Is the Active Travel Bill a missed opportunity to match education - and
incentives to push modal shift - with improved cycling facilities?
(Pic : roadswerenotbuiltforcars.com)

The Active Travel Bill was introduced earlier this year, and is currently making its way through the first committee stage, which is due to finish this week.

To recap, the Bill intends to place a duty on local authorities to map and plan "active travel routes" (English : Cycle and pedestrian lanes), allowing them to identify gaps, improve facilities and hopefully provide better quality routes to encourage walking and cycling.

Amongst the issues raised in committee is whether legislation is required, as opposed to a new strategy instead. There's also some confusion over departmental responsibilities – Culture Minister John Griffiths (Lab, Newport East) is the lead minister for the Bill, even though it's a transport responsibility - as well as the exact guidance local authorities will be issued with if the Bill is passed.

Another concern was that the legal requirement to carry out the mapping exercise might only apply to settlements with more than 2,000 residents – which would affect rural parts of the country, and bypass 23% of the Welsh population. That's not to mention the overarching issue of funding too.

I don't think you can deny that one of the main concerns about cycling (or walking) is safety. The main way nations, citing examples elsewhere in Europe, have tried to overcome that is by developing fully-segregated cycling facilities.

Sustrans recently announced plans for a segregated cycle route between Cardiff and Newport, which is estimated would cost just £500,000. That would buy you a few metres of motorway or half a railway station. So these things are relatively cheap, it's just a matter of finding the money and having the levels of use to justify spending it.

The Bill, as it stands, spells out that local authorities will need to "secure continuous improvement" to active travel networks. It's unclear if that means prioritising segregation over things like (cheaper) painted cycle lanes, we'll have to wait and see. Suzy Davies AM (Con, South Wales West) has a short debate in the Assembly on this issue on Wednesday.

However, there are warnings about going whole hog in developing cycling facilities without the underlying "nudge factors" to get people on their bikes in the first place.

There's one town in the UK which is, arguably, the ideal template for creating and sustaining a cycling culture. It has a fully segregated cycling and walking network, linking residential areas to major employers, the town centre core, as well as key transport infrastructure – the sort of thing the Active Travel Bill wants to encourage Welsh councils to develop.

Except, despite all that, it's been a massive failure. At its peak, it's reported only 14% of people used cycles as their main form of transport, and now the figure's just 3%.

Welcome to Stevenage

Does the fact things like this are seen as "radical" in the UK, highlight
the uphill struggle the Welsh Government and Sustrans have?
(Pic : The Telegraph)

Stevenage was developed as a new town in the 1960s and 70s, so we only have Cwmbran as a direct comparison in Wales. We can't apply the same criteria to most Welsh towns, which are older and have different geographies, but I think the underlying themes are still relevant.

Despite everything being designed from the outset with cyclists and pedestrians in mind - including traffic-free routes, underpasses and segregation between pedestrians and cyclists - it never caught on. People still opted to use their cars for short journeys, even if the facilities available were up to the standards of the Dutch.

So, even if you provide some of the best cycling facilities possible, if you don't get people to think "bike before car" – whether that's through discouraging car travel deliberately (i.e. low speed limits, speed humps, car park charges), or through education – it probably won't work.

Recent developments in London are another example of the uphill climb facing the Welsh Government and Sustrans. London has already developed a network of "cycle superhighways", and is now experimenting with Dutch-style cycle-friendly roundabouts (where cyclists have right of way when crossing the exits) and cycle traffic signals.

I think it highlights how backward the UK is when it comes to cycling when developments like these are flagged up as "radical innovations", so mind-blowing, that they need to be confined to the academic bubble for further study as if they were alien concepts. They've been used elsewhere in the world for decades.

I still think, broadly speaking, the draft law is a good one. It just falls short of what it could have been. Judging by some of the committee evidence, I think others feel the same way deep down.

One of the big let downs in the Active Travel Bill is that it's heavily focused on the practical mapping exercise, with little emphasis on the "softer/social" changes required to encourage people out of their cars – just like Stevenage.

It should've had provisions in there for things like cycle proficiency training, speed limits and minimum standards for cycling facilities. Of course, all that could be included in any official guidance drawn up by the Welsh Government.

We can do better than just monitoring cycle lanes, ticking a box for each new metre of tarmac put down. Tarmac that – without the right cultural shift – is unlikely to be used as intended.

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Wales : The Green and Grey Desert

What are we trying to do to Wales
through "sustainable development?"
(Pic : btaoregon.org)

Following on from my look at census demographics, and three excellent Click on Wales articles, it's worth considering the future of the Welsh economy and fitting that around sustainable development.

Former Plaid MP and AM, Cynog Dafis, wrote about squaring sustainable development with economic development. Cardiff University economics professor Calvin Jones addressed economic growth itself, mooting a "steady state" economy for Wales. Subsequently, Dr Kelvin Mason added to the debate, focusing on sustainable development activism.

No country for young men and women

It's an uncomfortable fact, but the Welsh (or people living in Wales) are amongst the most pig-headed, small-c conservative, cantankerous people in Europe. We generally oppose things for the sake of opposing them because we're used to someone else – historically the British state apparatus – taking whatever they want. In response, we try to "protect what's ours" by keeping things exactly how they are; pristine, green, damp and largely dead.

In many respects, anti-Welsh/anti-Welsh language comments are the same thing with different criteria. There's something in the Welsh psyche about wanting to be the Llywelyn statue in Cardiff City Hall – a raised fist against "something", just not knowing precisely what, and not really knowing why.

Nothing that threatens, as Cynog puts it – the "priceless and unsullied landscape....preserved from development and radical change" - is allowed. Nothing to ruin views from expensive ex-farmhouses. Nothing to make a country seem "alive". So it seems nothing always wins, and a few people get to raise their fists in defiance to make it so.

What remains is a massive folk museum. A slowly fossilising nation that exists like a pensioner sitting in a chair waiting for the Grim Reaper. It's not a country for the young, but – as the census statistics show – we're going to need them.

The only way to keep them is having a functioning economy, coupled with a high standard of living for young families. The former doesn't matter to the retired, their toiling days over and they understandably don't want any excitement. That excitement being anything from wind farms, a new bypass, houses or constitutional change. True, it isn't just the retired either, that's just a stereotype. It's also true that economic prosperity shouldn't be the only measure of well-being.

Sometimes those worries are justified. Open-cast mines are nothing but giant holes that make the land unusable for decades. You can still do things around wind farms, the footprint of which consists largely of the turbine bases themselves.

Nuclear energy has side issues - like waste and decommissioning - that makes it nothing but an expensive, panicked stop gap due to poor long-term energy planning. Nuclear's proven technology, but I'd take biomass or tidal as sloppy seconds every time.

The jury's out on fracking. Based on providing communities with a steady supply of gas over several decades, it might qualify as "sustainable". If it's burnt as quickly as possible in the National Grid to make quick profits (based on Welsh experience, that's what'll happen) then it most certainly doesn't qualify.

Is there room for compromise between "sustainability" and economic development? Is that even desirable? As Prof. Jones points out, should we rethink "growth" itself?

Economy or Ecology?

"Sustainable development" generally means balancing what's taken out – like natural resources - with what's put back (i.e. greenhouse gas reductions) enabling it to be managed at that level indefinitely.

Call me cynical, but "sustainable" has become a meaningless slogan to smooth through unpopular policies. Search any Senedd debate and see how many times "sustainable/sustainability" pops up – regardless of relevance. As a word, it's been raped.

Nothing quite representes the battle between sustainability, conservation of the landscape and economic development in Wales quite like wind farms.

As Cynog Dafis says, the fact we can generate clean energy directly from wind, sun or tides is a miracle of modern technology – even if we've used wind and watermills routinely before.

You can see two wind farms from prominent north-facing hills in Bridgend on a clear day – Heol y Cyw and I think the other's Fforch Nest. They neither add or take anything away from the landscape as most of the time they're shrouded in low cloud. That's different if you're right next to them, of course.

As for noise and health, pylons carrying electricity from Aberthaw can be pretty noisy, and it's unclear if they have a health impact. There's one less than 200m from me while it's practically in the back garden of someone living on the local estate.

I accept it because it keeps the lights on, just as wind turbines play their small part in doing so too. Likewise, agriculture is probably the single most damaging activity humanity's done to the environment, but we accept that because it keeps bellies full and fields full of animals and crops. So, as you might expect, I don't see the point of keeping otherwise unproductive upland moors as they are for the sake of it.

Using the wind farm example, if they're manufactured, replaced and maintained by Welsh companies, and if the energy generated is supplied by Welsh companies or co-owned by local communities, that means jobs and economic benefits for Wales with minimal impact on the ecosystem - "sustainable development".

Lights on, factories working, jobs, money, "engineering graduates required", clean energy, community ownership. No massive holes in the ground. No grey blocks built next to the sea full of burning coal or submerged uranium.

However, as wind farms spring up, the "Welsh/community economic element" is missing – perhaps because no Welsh companies took advantage in the first place because they knew what the reaction would be from the locals.

Environmental protection should be a top consideration for sustainable development, but if you don't match that with economic sustainability too – that means rural and urban Wales paying its way - it doesn't work. It's too one-sided. All you would be left with is the equivalent of a garden full of weeds and rocks. It'll be overgrown with life, but slowly choked off and dying as a result.

Not everybody's happy with change, as opposing it keeps the noise and excitement – subsequently the youthful vitality - well away. I don't know what point it proves, other than leaving Wales an unkempt future graveyard.

I don't fancy living in a graveyard. Look at "brain drain" figures and many others my age have forsaken the vaunted "peace" and "tranquillity" and decided they don't fancy it either.



Post-Growth Problems : The "War on Stuff"

A world without growth is likely to be a world
with less "stuff". Try telling them that.
(Pic : Lunson Mitchenall)

An issue with economic growth is that economists and politicians expect growth to continue forever. They're ill-prepared for disasters like the 1930s, 70s oil shock or 2008.

Economic growth – by and large – is a mirage anyway. London's the wealthiest part of the UK thanks in main to global financial institutions, but that means diddly squat to those living in poverty around Canary Wharf. Ditto areas of rural Wales with sustained below average levels of economic inactivity - thanks in main to the public sector - but low productivity.

It's an economic pulse. It's a good indication of whether an economy's thriving or not, but you can't use it alone to tell if it's well overall.

A lot's been said about Wales benefiting from the green economy because we have the natural assets to take advantage of it. Prof. Jones makes a strong case that these developments aren't enough to meet either "sustainability" or economic growth.

I don't think his argument was Luddite or Malthusian, in fact it made sense. We don't have an ecosystem in isolation. Technology can meet our national targets, but pointless if our half-dozen fossil fuel plants get supplanted by thirty coal-fired power stations elsewhere in the world.

Technology can help, but only if we're smart about it. That could be to develop and export it – proving schemes like the Swansea Bay lagoon work - and show emerging economies currently reliant on fossil fuels that there are viable alternatives. That has to be coupled with global moves to stabilise the population, as well as local actions like energy conservation and changes to how and why we buy and use things.

The chase for "endless growth" is no doubt causing global unsustainability. However, thinking like that makes economics seem a mystical force, not an artificial human construct. Throughout history, when something doesn't work to our benefit, we change how it works – that applies to economics as much as energy generation and manufacturing.

We've seen moves towards practical steps in Wales, like Leanne Wood's Greenprint for the Valleys and The Collective Entrepreneur. But those approaches are still – largely – based on growth, just redefined and repackaged.

With regard "post growth economics" - as mooted by Prof. Jones and others - several problems arise.

Firstly, it's a generational "War on Stuff", and the Welsh like "stuff" as much as anyone else. I loath consumerism, I can't emphasise that enough, but it's hard to picture returning to "the simple days of old" that those acting as Wales' curators are perhaps keen to cling to.

It's twee to believe Welsh people - amongst all others - are going to give up their "stuff" so we can dance through the forest like The Smurfs and live in ecovillages. We'll need to be told to, maybe forced to once exhausted supplies of "stuff" can't meet demand. All that has unfortunate implications.

Next, the elephant in the room – global population growth.

Europe's population is stabilising and ageing, which has problems in itself. It's under-developed nations who'll get shafted (or not as the case may be). That's where population growth – and demand for food, energy and resources - is driven from. The poorest have large families because children die of preventable diseases, and bring in an income via more heads working for very little.

Also, they're not to blame for global unsustainability, but they'll have to be told to have fewer children so we in the developed world can feel more smug about saving them from themselves. Those emerging economies who've spent a century catching up to us will have to take our calls for them to stop with a straight face too.

Then there's the problem of innovation. It's not that a "post growth" economy wouldn't innovate, it's that any viable innovation – no matter how small - will result in some sort of growth.

What would a steady state economy look like? Would growth in one economic sector have to be offset by an engineered decline elsewhere to maintain artificial equilibrium? Hasn't Wales been living through a version of "steady state economics" since the 1980s? Look where it's got us.

I like the idea of rethinking why we work, and the concept of "useful work" – so much so I might come back to it another time. But people doing "useful work" will still want to get paid and buy "stuff" unless they've undergone a mass re-education.

Useful work will be assigned a value. That could be done via a virtual, inflation-proof or negative interest currency, the value of "useful work" based on factors including effort, resources used and (mental & physical) sacrifice. Your nurse could be paid more than a footballer, and your politician can be paid less than a binman.

It works in Star Trek because they have infinite resources via molecular resequencing - the ultimate version of recycling - and infinite energy sources unknown to modern science. "Money" and "wealth" are useless concepts in an economy like that.

Except, we still have finite resources, and scarcity generates "worth" in itself. The only workable, but massively imperfect way of managing that in human history is the market. So far from throwing in the towel on growth, we should probably ensure sustainable products and concepts become cheap, desirable and marketable.

For example, housing. I'd prefer to see low-carbon, modular homes made out of fast-regenerating materials like timber (and "smart materials"), built along walkable grid pattern streets, close to public transport hubs, replace sprawling estates of brick and mortar cul-de-sacs. Keep the individualist concept of "what is mine", but change how that looks and works.

Those advocating stable state economics need to be careful they don't end up on the same side, philosophically speaking, as those opposed to development for the sake of opposition or to "preserve something" - a country photographed for the front of chocolate boxes. A country stuck in a glass bottle, full of tiny waxworks for people to gawp at. A nice country to die in.

We couldn't be bothered to maintain it properly as it was "too hard work". We'd rather sit and stare at it through the window, maybe getting someone in to trim things back every now and again. In the end, Wales ends up a weed-ridden garden.

We'll think the neighbours will sit back and admire that too, and our commitment to letting nature reclaim its own, but instead it's practically an invitation to chuck whatever rubbish they have over the fence.

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Ambulance required for the Wales Ambulance Trust

After thirteen reports or audits since 2006 - will the Welsh Government
finally take action on the long-standing problems in the Wales Ambulance Trust?
(Pic : BBC Wales)

A major review into the Welsh Ambulance Trust – chaired by Prof. Siobhan McClelland – reported back last week. You can read the report for yourself here (pdf).

The Assembly debated the findings yesterday, and unanimously approved a – by their standards – pretty strongly-worded, 10-point motion demanding significant actions in response.

Just before that debate, Health Minister Mark Drakeford (Lab, Cardiff West) announced a £9.5million upgrade to the ambulance fleet – no doubt welcome but, for reasons that will become apparent, unlikely to make much of a difference.

The Wales Ambulance Service Trust (WAST)

The WAST was formed in 1998 – so before the Assembly came into being - after a review recommended the four regional ambulance trusts were merged into a national service. The idea was this would remove "artificial boundaries" and be more cost effective. At the time of the McClelland review, WAST employed 2,500 staff and had a budget of £159million, with a fleet of over 300 vehicles and 90 ambulance stations.

We might think of the ambulance service in terms of pure emergency services. However, the WAST provides more than that:

• Unscheduled care – The emergency "blue light" ambulance service we all recognise, responding to 999 calls, as well as occasional urgent transport from GP surgeries.
• Planned patient care services (PCS) – Non-emergency transport to take people to pre-planned/scheduled outpatient clinics. I guess these include the "ambulance buses" you see from time to time.
• Health Courier Services – A sub-section of the PCS work, including moving hospital and clinical items. I'm not sure if this includes urgent organ transplants too.

There are other ambulance services not provided by WAST:

• Wales Air Ambulance – A charitable organisation reliant on a mix of fundraising and state-support from local health boards (LHBs) and the Welsh Government. Its three crews generally act as an ambulance in places ambulances can't go, or for quick cross-country transport to specialists.
• Emergency co-responders and first responders – These are usually volunteers, or specially trained individuals (like firefighters), who provide emergency care until a paramedic arrives on scene.

The Key Issues

Governance & Accountability

After growing concerns about its performance, and the fact it's been under heavy scrutiny since it was established, it's said WAST, "has been reviewed....more than any part of the Welsh NHS." It's claimed there've been at least THIRTEEN reviews or audits of WAST since 2006 – this is the latest – so it's totting up at roughly two a year.

Of those reviews, at least two were in-depth – internal and independent - between 2006 and 2009. There was also an opportunity to look at governance arrangements when the LHBs were reorganised in 2009.

In terms of governance, at the moment ambulance services are :

• Commissioned by the Welsh Health Specialised Services Committee, or WHSSC (never heard of them).
• Accountable to the LHBs.
• Governed by the Welsh Government.

So there are – in effect – three bosses.

Stakeholders said there was a "lack of ownership and co-ordination" of ambulance services due to these confused commissioning arrangements. There were also concerns about a lack of accountability to LHBs – who WAST are contractually obligated to provide services for.

It boils down to the question of who are WAST answerable to? It appears nobody knows. These stakeholders were clear though that they wanted ambulances services to "run locally" but "overseen nationally". Isn't that what the arrangements are like anyway?

Not plugging or anything. I'll just leave this here.

Funding, Management & Staff

In terms of funding, for unscheduled/emergency care the arrangements are pretty straightforward. The Welsh Government funds LHBs who fund WHSSC and eventually money makes its way to WAST.

"Funding per call" is around £195, which is lower than similar ambulance trusts in England. Though staff think they get enough funds to run the service, it's said funding isn't being properly targeted towards delivering desired service outcomes (i.e the 8 minute target) – for example, regional differences in funding, where SE Wales gets 68% of calls but doesn't get 68% of funds.

The management structure is one of these bureaucratic mazes which depress me each time I see one. It's said problems in management haven't been dealt with down the years, despite changes in top personnel. Some concerns were raised about the leadership skills of senior managers too.

There are high sickness levels amongst ambulance staff, which is usually one of the first signs of low morale or poor working practices. Considering the scrutiny they're under, you can understand why. You would expect ambulance service staff to have more overtime, but it's suggested staff rosters are "inconsistent" and "lacked capacity at peak times".

I think it's worth pointing out that nobody blames paramedics or frontline ambulance staff for these problems. They appear to be lions led by donkeys – management and political.

Performance

In the last few weeks, we learned only 53.3% of emergency calls were responded to within the 8 minute target time laid down by the Welsh Government (who aim for 65%).

WAST dealt with 530,000+ calls in 2012-13, and the number of calls they received significantly increased since 2005-06. "Life threatening calls" have increased by 30% alone over that period.

WAST consistently failed to reach the 8 minute target during 2012-13, though they've done better in previous years. They've also failed to reach targets for lesser emergencies that need a response in 30 minutes to an hour.

There are several reasons given for this. Most of them are perfectly reasonable and unavoidable, I'm afraid to say :

• Poor weather hampering ambulances.
• Topography and geography. I think we'll all have seen ambulances on "blue light" calls stuck in traffic jams or narrow side streets.
• Particular problems in sparsely populated areas. You can't guarantee where an emergency call will come from as well as factoring in the long distances travelled.
• Handover delays at A&E departments. Every hour an ambulance is held up at an A&E department is an hour that ambulance is out of action, putting more pressure on the fewer ambulances left on the road.

It's said that while speed is important in some medical emergencies – like a heart attack - an 8 minute target is a "blanket measure". This is a critical point I'll come back to later.

Recommendations

There were four key recommendations, and 12 recommendations overall :

• Emergency ambulance services should be considered a clinical service (focused on unscheduled care), with PCS services separated. I think that translates as, "Stop using emergency ambulances to transport people who can/should make their own way to hospital."
• PCS services should be provided by LHBs themselves. AMs from all parties have backed these first two recommendations.
• Development of a non-emergency "111" service to, presumably, discourage people using 999 for medical non-emergencies. It's worth noting current problems in the English 111 service though.
• A clear need for funding and accountability changes.

Relating to that last point, the report proposes three strategic options:

1. Retaining a national ambulance service as a "special health board" funded directly by the Welsh Government. It would clear up the "three bosses" issue, as ambulance services would be directly accountable to the Welsh Government. However, it might not be fully integrated into locally-run PCS services. Plus there's the problem of setting up a new health board in the first place.
2. A new commissioning model, with ambulance services commissioned directly by LHBs. WAST would remain, but services would be accountable to and funded by individual LHBs, creating a "local focus". Some of the drawbacks include a lack of commissioning skills in the Welsh NHS, and it might not be different enough from current arrangements.
3. Ambulance services run and funded by LHBs alone. WAST would be dissolved and ambulance services locally controlled in their entirety. This is probably the most radical proposed change. It would increase "competition" between LHBs in terms of performance, and the LHB would be entirely accountable for ambulance services. However, there is the issue of staff transfers as well as the prospect of bigger differences in performance between different LHBs.

999 problems

I don't think WAST's problems come down entirely to management and governance. Look at the list of reasons for poor performances. Wales (generally) has poor roads and long travel times to hospitals in some areas – which are set to become even longer (in some cases) thanks to the hospital reorganisations. That's probably why members of the public are worried about downgrading local A&Es.

We don't have the infrastructure to enable across-the-board 8 minute response times. Maybe the Welsh Government's targets are too high, and we need a redefinition of what a "life threatening emergency" is. We're in danger of becoming obsessed with the target, not the standard of care.

An example was given where if an ambulance reaches an emergency in 7 minutes and the patient dies – they've hit the target. If it's 9 minutes and they live – they've missed it.

In terms of the strategic options, I'd go for option three – dissolving WAST and handing ambulance services over to LHBs. It might make it clearer which parts of Wales have problems with response times so the Welsh Government can pinpoint what's causing them and take appropriate action.

The fact there've been thirteen reviews or audits in seven years reflects badly on Cardiff Bay. They must've shelved so many of these things you've got to wonder why they're commissioned in the first place!

This latest review is unlikely to go that way. However, I'm bracing myself for only minimal changes as I have low expectations when it comes to Welsh Government and LHB responses to health issues now. They're either incredibly pushy – as in the case of hospital reorganisations - or ultra-conservative and risk-averse.

The Welsh Government didn't set up a national ambulance service, but it's been their responsibility since 1999 to sort out problems. They clearly haven't, or been too scared to make significant changes for whatever reason.

For all the reviews, questions and motions, the key question remains paramount:

How many people have been put in unnecessary danger because of this?

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Census 2011 : Demographics II - Its meaning for Wales

What are the possible consequences of an ageing population?
(Pic : The Guardian)

• Census 2011 : What's stunting Welsh?
• Census 2011 : Losing our religion?
• Census 2011 : National Identity & Ethnicity
• Census 2011 : Disability, Carers & Health
• Census 2011 : Qualifications
• Census 2011 : Demographics I – How old is Wales?

Firstly, I forgot to include the data I used yesterday (2001, 2011).

Following on from yesterday's post, I'm going to look at some of the possible implications of the demographic/age changes in more detail. But to summarise – for those of you who can't be bothered to sift through the last post:

• Wales' mean age was 40.6, median 41 – second highest of the regions of EnglandandWales.
• 18.3% of Wales' population in 2011 was aged 65+ - a rise of 0.9% on 2001 – with much higher levels in rural central and northern Wales.
• 45.2% of Welsh residents were aged between 30-64 – a fall of 2.3% on 2001.
• The percentage of school age children fell by 3.4% nationally, but there was no change with regard pre-school children (0-4 y.o.).
• The percentage of young adults (18-29) rose by 1.8% on 2001, seeing bigger rises in urban areas of Wales, with the notable exception of Ceredigion.

Impact on the Welsh language

Back in January, I posted my musings on the fall in Welsh speakers. I made several guesses as to why that happened.

Firstly, the mortality and migration issues. Y Fro – Anglesey aside - isn't as old as I was expecting. However, all 4 Y Fro counties do have above-average levels of pensioners, and they've also seen some of the biggest increases in pensionable populations since 2001 – again, in particular Anglesey.

When you cross-reference this with the falls in Welsh speakers, I think this will have had an impact in Ceredigion and possibly Carmarthenshire, but less so in Anglesey or Gwynedd. The latter two didn't see as sharp a drop in Welsh-speakers as the southern half of Y Fro. So I think mortality at least – an older population, including a fair chunk of Welsh speakers, dying naturally - is just one small bit player in a complicated set of circumstances.

It's hard to tell whether "elderly migration" had a similar impact. As far I can tell, the figures aren't broken down by age. I suspect it will have, especially if those migrating aren't Welsh-speakers. But as I pointed out then, significant numbers of migrants to Y Fro are from other Welsh local authorities – especially into Ceredigion – while English migration isn't as pronounced compared to European immigration or those from further afield.

When you look at the rise in "young adults" in Ceredigion alone, I was probably right to include the expansion of university education – and an increased in-migration of non Welsh-speaking 18-21 year olds – as a possible factor.

There's clearly a shift towards the young in terms of Welsh speakers overall. But
will falls in  numbers of school age children in Y Fro cause problems when
planning Welsh-medium school  places in the future? As well as impact
the number of Welsh speaker nationally.
(Pic : BBC Wales)

One thing I did say, was that there was cause to be upbeat because of a clear, positive "demographic shift" towards the young in terms of numbers and percentage of Welsh-speakers. Blog Menai has also pointed out that amongst the over-20s, Welsh speakers are on average younger than non-Welsh speakers. However, viewing this in itself as a possible saviour of the Welsh language might be a little over-optimistic.

Ceredigion already had one of the lowest percentages of school age children, and it's quite likely that in 2021, school age children might fall into a single figure percentage of the Ceredigion population. Gwynedd and Anglesey also have fairly "low" percentages of school-age children resident. Although there's a definite demographic "bulge", with Welsh-speakers overall becoming younger, in terms of strength in numbers it's unlikely to make that much of a difference.

There'll be more Welsh-speaking young people (under 30s) in 20-30 years time for sure – perhaps 30%+ of the population even outside Y Fro.  But they're still going to be outnumbered by pensioners in terms of sheer numbers. Quite a few of them are likely to leave and bring up children elsewhere. So as much as shoring up the heartland is important, it's equally important to meet demand for Welsh-medium education elsewhere in Wales too.

So my guess is the physical number of Welsh speakers will go up nationally. But if that doesn't exceed the pace of general population growth - topped up by non-Welsh speaking elderly migrants - then Welsh speakers as a percentage of the population will stagnate or continue a slow decline  (inside and outside Y Fro) or struggle to breach 20% of the Welsh population.

But it's worth pointing out that demographic projections aren't an exact science and tend to "wobble" quite often.

Impact on the economy

The main factor here is the "productive population" - the numbers of working age people with jobs, generating wealth measured as gross value added (GVA).

GVA is divided amongst the total population to get headline GVA per capita figures. That means pensioners, temporary and long-term unemployed or disabled and school age children are included - not just the "working" working age population.

GVA is rural areas is low anyway. That's perhaps because sectors like agriculture and tourism don't generate as much for the economy as a whole compared to financial services or manufacturing - the latter two generally based in urban areas and city regions.

In parts of Wales with higher numbers of disabled people, pensioners, or higher numbers of those in full-time study too (in the case of Gwynedd and Ceredigion) - the "productive population" is going to be significantly lower than somewhere like Cardiff. Therefore, an already weak GVA is divided by more (statistically) "unproductive" heads, producing weaker GVA per capita figures that it perhaps otherwise should be.

So there's probably a warning that, although GVA is useful in measuring economic strength, it isn't the be all and end all of an economic story on the ground.

Impact on key public services

The main issue here as I see it is the dependency ratio. Dependency ratios measure the relative demographic "burden" placed on an area's working age population by those outside the labour market (children and pensioners). You can have separate child dependency ratios and old dependency ratios too.

The higher the dependency ratio, the more a government has to spend or provide things like education, pensions and social services for children and the elderly. It's fair to point out though that some pensioners might still be in the labour market, and the retirement age is rising to 66 by 2020.

It's calculated to international standards by:

• The number of full-time school children (defined as 0-15 by international measures) and pensioners (65+) added together
• Divided by the working age population (15-64)
• Times by 100

Dependency ratios nationally and in each local authority in 2011
(Click to enlarge)

In Wales, the dependency ratio is at 54.6, compared to 51 for the UK as a whole. That means Wales bares a slightly higher "burden" of dependents than the rest of the UK. We probably knew that anyway.

However, at individual local authority level, some of the figures are jaw-dropping. Five local authorities have a dependency ratio above 60.

Old age dependency ratios are perhaps more important here, as they're usually out of the workforce permanently and place a greater relative burden on health and personal social services, whilst school-age children will eventually join the workforce.

Some Welsh local authorities currently have levels of old age dependency that the UK as a whole isn't expecting to see until the 2050s! (30-40) And all of them are in the "West Wales & The Valleys" EU region. Remember what I said about GVA figures earlier. Is it any wonder why the Welsh economy struggles if these are the sorts of numbers bandied about?

With the old age dependency ratio in Wales increasing, who's
going to pay for all the extra elderly in the future? Will people
my age have to work for significantly longer than current pensioners?
(Pic : The Guardian)

Wales, as a whole, has an old age dependency ratio of 28.4. So there's roughly 3 working age people for every 1 pensioner. In some Welsh authorities, it's already lower than that that.

That doesn't necessarily mean there'll be strain on things like social services and health, as long as people have a long healthy life expectancy so they don't need to rely on those things in the first place.

If we don't live healthier lives in old age, then it'll t means we'll need to consider immigration of 16-40 year olds to work, pay tax and support pensioners; as well as a higher birth rate – especially in rural Wales - to provide more sustainable levels of working age people down the line.

It's also significantly more expensive to provide services in sparsely-populated rural areas than urban areas for a whole host of reasons. It will probably be better (for the state) for the elderly to live somewhere like Cardiff compared to Conwy. But peace and quiet is something retired people might want. We either need to either quietly discourage that, or come up with ways to live with it.

When you factor in things like a higher relative percentage of working age people with disabilities too – who aren't counted as dependents, but who don't work - there are still major challenges facing parts of Wales.
Impact on politics

It's unclear. The number of pensioners hasn't massively changed nationally since 2001, but in individual constituencies and regions, the numbers of pensioners could have an impact on politics locally.

It's anecdotal evidence, but older people are generally more conservative, more eurosceptic and in Y Fro neither likely or unlikely to speak Welsh as well as being cultural nationalists (both Welsh and "British"). They also turn out more at election time.

Another thing that the figures highlight is that 40-70 year olds are too dominant in politics at all levels in Wales. Maybe that's for good reason, because people want to elect someone with "life experience". Perhaps now you can see why those aged under 30 are switching off from politics altogether, or more interested in taking up single-issue causes/activism as opposed to institutions like local councils, the Assembly,  Westminster and the European Parliament.

There's a massive risk of creating a generation gap in Welsh politics that will be hard to close because young people will never become interested in mainstream party politics in the first place. It's entirely plausible that political parties in Wales will struggle to recruit new members and candidates in the long-term, because politics has effectively turned its back on an entire generation.

There are numerous examples proving younger people can be elected to office at all levels. But having one or two "token" young politicians in local government, or putting them in the ghetto of student/"yoof" politics, doesn't cut it if politics wants to be representative.

For example, based on the census figures, the Assembly should currently have at least 9 AMs aged between 18-29 and 10-11AMs aged over 65. Though they're not far off the latter, they fall way, way short of the former.

Unfortunate implications in The Valleys

The general "youth" in the valleys could be down to at least two factors.

The first one is shorter life expectancies than the rest of Wales, dragging average ages – especially means – downwards.

The second one could be a result of people having children younger, including teenage pregnancies. This means that the percentages of young adults and school age children are boosted, as there would have been more young adults and 15-16 year olds having children than the Welsh average over the census period – though the numbers of teenage pregnancies are falling.

Now, teenage pregnancies aren't a "good thing". However, in the long-term it could help keep old age dependency ratios in the Valleys at a more sustainable level, but that'll only work if the economy improves. Those kids being born to younger parents will need to be well brought up, well-educated and have decent jobs waiting for them when they're older.

How can we keep Wales "young"?


I don't know what a "good" old age dependency ratio would be, but I'd guess we should aim to get it down towards 20% nationally, allowing a bit of variation between local authorities.

First and foremost – boost the birth rate. However, it's nowhere near as easy as that, as having children is dependent on a whole host of other things.

Do we need to place less emphasis on owning property
as an investment? Do we need to come up with ways to build homes
cheaply and retain younger families?
(Pic : prefabs.com)

There's the issues of housing and housing costs in general. We should probably not place as much emphasis on homes as an investment, as well as encouraging long-term renting and perhaps see a sustained, managed decline in house prices. One way to do that would be to increase supply, and I've covered that before. We need to build more starter homes, and those homes have to be affordable, perhaps using innovative methods of construction.


Next, there's the question of tackling under-employment. We need better paid and higher-value added jobs, particularly in rural parts of Wales, to prevent young adults and those in their 30s-40s from migrating away, leaving only the old - a ticking time bomb with regard key public services. Expanding apprenticeships and providing large numbers of low-paying, low-skilled jobs is fine as a stop gap, but there needs to be something better too, so young families can actually establish themselves.

Retaining graduates – especially home grown ones - once they've graduated is linked to the above. It doesn't seem to be too much of a problem in places like Cardiff. However, if you stem the "brain drain" across Wales, it might convince employers and companies that they can set up higher-value added enterprises, which means better jobs, more money in the local economy and hopefully, eventually lead to more children.

How does Wales retain graduates from Welsh universities?
More importantly, how do we convince employers that we have
the right skill set in the first place?
(Pic : BBC Wales)

New communities designed from the outset to be family-friendly, as well as family-friendly working practises, would also go some way as to encourage a higher birth rate. The valleys, from an objective perspective, are in many cases ideal to bring up young children. We should make more of that, but that means getting to grips with some of the long-standing problems too. That'll mean a lot more than third sector "projects" and housing renewals.

I also mentioned earlier "positive discouragement" with regard elderly people moving to rural Wales, and instead moving to urban parts of Wales to spread the older population out a bit more. By "positive discouragement" I mean doing things that might benefit a rural community as a whole, but put people off "seeking peace and quiet" : windfarms and energy projects, black metal festivals next to nursing homes, active agriculture (with all the noise and smells), planned expansion of larger rural towns, dogging, business parks, road improvements etc.

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Census 2011 : Demographics I - How old is Wales?

Is Wales getting older? Are parts of Wales getting younger even?
It's a mixed bag. The 2011 census throws up surprises
and not-so big surprises.
(Pic : The Guardian)

• Census 2011 : What's stunting Welsh?
• Census 2011 : Losing our religion?
• Census 2011 : National Identity & Ethnicity
• Census 2011 : Disability, Carers & Health
• Census 2011 : Qualifications

Next stop on the 2011 "census tour", and it's one of the big ones. Only two more areas to go after this. Is Wales getting older? What implications will changing age demographics have on Welsh public services? And how does all this fit in with previous posts – like those on the Welsh language and disability?

I'm not going to bother breaking these figures down by gender, as that would complicate things further. You'll all know that women live longer on average than men anyway.

The Welsh Age Profile

In 2011, the mean age in Wales was 40.6, which isn't too different from the median age (41). So people aged 41 in Wales are at the "half way point" in terms of age if you split the population into two equal groups. I couldn't find any similar figures for 2001, so I can't tell how this has changed, but I suspect it's slightly upwards. You'll probably agree once you've read the rest of this.

Wales is slightly older than England (mean 39.3, median 39) and the only English region older than Wales was the South West of England (mean 41.6, median 42). In Cornwall, the figures were a mean of 43.3 and a median of 45.

The median age of the resident population in 2011
(Click to enlarge)

Within Wales, there are very big variations between individual local authorities.


Cardiff is significantly "younger" than the rest of Wales, with a median age of 33. Swansea (39) and Newport (38) are distant third and second places. The south Wales valleys are generally around the Welsh average, with the median age ranging between 40-42.

Conwy is the "oldest" county in Wales, with a median age of 46 and the highest mean of 44.6. Powys (median 46, mean 43.9), Anglesey (median 45, mean 43.4) and Monmouthshire (median 45, mean 43) closely follow .

In Y Fro, somewhat surprisingly, Gwynedd (median 42, mean 41.6) and Ceredigion (median 42, mean 41.7) are not really that different from the Welsh average. I would've expected Ceredigion at least to be "older", but that's probably the impact of the universities dragging the averages down. If you removed students from those two counties, then I suspect Y Fro would probably be significantly "older" on average than the figures suggest.

The Retired and Elderly (Aged 65+)

In 2011, 18.3% of the Welsh population were aged 65 or over. What will perhaps surprise you, is that it's only risen by 0.9% between 2001 and 2011. Although it's still 1 in 5 of the population near enough, I was expecting higher.

Resident population aged 65+ in 2011
(Click to enlarge)

Once again, there are differences between Welsh local authorities. Cardiff has significantly fewer pensioners than any other part of Wales (13.2%). Newport, the Gwent Valleys and Merthyr Tydfil are a cluster of local authorities with fewer pensioners too, ranging between 16-17% of the population. The likes of Bridgend and Swansea (both 17.9%) follow close behind.

In the north and west though, there's clearly a much greyer population, but we probably already knew that anyway. Conwy is way out ahead of everywhere else with nearly a quarter of the population (24.4%) aged 65+. Powys (22.8), Anglesey (22.4%) and Pembrokeshire (21.8%) come closest to that. What is noticeable though is that Wrexham (17%) and Flintshire (17.6%) have South Walian low levels of pensioners.

In terms of how things have changed compared to 2001, Anglesey has seen by far and away the sharpest increase in pensioners (+3.5%), closely followed by Powys (+2.9%) and Monmouthshire (+2.8%).

What is a little surprising is that – Anglesey aside - things haven't changed very much in north Wales. It's mid and west Wales (and Monmouthshire) which is seeing a big greying of the population.

Change in the percentage of residents
aged 65+ between 2001-2011
(Click to enlarge)

You could even say that south Wales - and that's where most people live, especially Cardiff and Swansea - might not have aged as quickly as the government and local authorities are concerned about.

In terms of specific age groups, although the numbers of 60-74 year olds increased nationally by around 2.1% compared to 2001, there's a drop off at ages 75-84, presumably because that's the age group where most people die naturally.

2.4% of the population of Wales were aged 85+ in 2011 - a rise overall of 0.4% on 2001. Living that long probably comes down to luck and genetics – including the length of your telomeres if you want to get technical - as there's no set pattern across Wales. Torfaen, for example, has seen the same percentage growth of 85-89 year olds as Ceredigion (+0.5%).

Children & Young Adults

Some 45.2% of the Welsh population are "adults", which I'm defining as aged between 30-64. However, the number of 30-45 year olds fell by 2.3% between 2001 and 2011 – the sharpest fall of any census age group – and there were noticeably sharper falls in rural local authorities like Powys, Monmouthshire and Ceredigion.

For the sake of brevity (stop laughing), I'm not going to look into that. What I am going to look at though are younger age groups, namely school age children (5-17) and young adults (18-29). The young adult group will be particularly interesting for economic, cultural and demographic reasons.

School age children

Overall, while the percentage of pre-school children (aged 0-4) hasn't changed at all nationally from 2001, the percentage of school age children fell by 3.4%. Carmarthenshire aside, it's Y Fro counties that have the lowest percentages. Ceredigion had the lowest at 11.4%, followed by Anglesey and Gwynedd (both 12.8%).

Resident population aged between
5-17 in 2011
(Click to enlarge)

Change in resident population aged
between 5-17 (2001-2011)
(Click to enlarge)

Somewhat surprisingly, Cardiff (12.9% ) and Swansea (13%) also had lower than average school age populations. That's probably a distortion caused by a larger number of people overall.

The Gwent area and the Vale of Glamorgan had the highest school age populations, with Newport having the highest percentage nationally at 15.1%. Many of the south Wales valley authorities also had above average numbers of children.

In terms of how it's changed, it's a fairly uniform fall across Wales. Most local authorities saw a fall of around 3-4% in their school age populations, with the joint sharpest falls in Merthyr Tydfil and Blaenau Gwent (-4.7%).


In Y Fro, although the falls in the school age population aren't that different to the rest of the country, because of smaller total populations in authorities like Anglesey and Ceredigion, the effect of the "loss of the young" will likely be amplified much more than in the urban south or north east.

Young adults

The number of young adults on the other hand has increased compared to 2001 – a national rise of 1.8%. 15.8% of the Welsh population were aged between 18 and 29 in 2011.

Cardiff (24.1%) and Swansea (18.4%) – as you might expect – had some of the highest percentages of young adult residents. What was a little surprising is that Ceredigion had the second highest nationally at 21.2%. I think the reason for that's obvious – Aberystwyth & Trinity St David's Universities. Gwynedd also had a relatively high number of young adults at 16.8% of the population.

Percentage of the resident population
aged between 18-29 in 2011
(Click to enlarge)

Change in resident population aged 18-29
between 2001-2011
(Click to enlarge)

In terms of low levels, you've got to point to rural areas of Wales like Powys (11.4%), Anglesey (12.4%), Pembrokeshire (12.6%) and the lowest in Monmouthshire (11%). All of those authorities also lack a university, it's worth pointing out.

In terms of how these numbers have changed on 2001, what's fairly obvious is that Cardiff is by some way acting as a youth magnet with a gain of 4.1%, followed by Newport (+3.1%) and Ceredigion once again (+3.1%). Merthyr Tydfil also saw a big rise of (3.1%). Is that a hint that young adults priced out of Cardiff might be moving north? Or is it just a natural demographic shift?

Some local authorities though had fairly low levels of growth. Flintshire almost flat lines at +0.2% , similarly many north Wales authorities, with the exception of Gwynedd (+1.9%).

Other southern local authorities you would've expected to see sharper growth didn't. Bridgend's young adult population only grew by 1.1%, as did Neath Port Talbot. While Rhondda Cynon Taf only saw a 1% increase.

Because there's so much here that needs to be looked into, this post has been split. The second part will be posted tomorrow and will revisit some other things – like the Welsh language – as well as what all this could mean for the Welsh economy, politics and public services.

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