I could've commented on
this when Carwyn Jones made the original announcement back in December. I doubt he would've made that announcement unless an
agreement was inevitable at the time, but it was worth waiting until
the deal to buy Cardiff Airport was announced properly, which
happened last week.
First thing's first, Cardiff Airport is important to Cardiff and its environs alone. As our capital, we should expect it to have decent air links – especially to be taken seriously for business. But this isn't economically essential for "Wales". North Wales has Liverpool and Manchester, mid Wales has Birmingham, while the far south east of Wales is probably within Bristol's catchment area anyway. Cardiff's catchment area should be everything west of Monmouthshire and south of Builth Wells – probably around 1.5-2million people.
I've touched on some of the issues surrounding Cardiff Airport and its future before, but let's be clear, once passenger figures start to reach 700,000-800,000 levels – which is entirely possible in the next 5 years based on the trends – there's a real possibility the whole thing could become so commercially unviable that closure could be an option. Something has to be done.
As far as I'm concerned this was the right decision. I'm pleased that the Welsh Government have taken some concerted and decisive action for once.
I can understand why the Tories are getting their knickers in a twist over this, as they're ideologically opposed to public ownership of anything, even if the airport will be "run commercially".
I'm also opposed to public ownership of things like airports, but I'm not opposed to public-private partnerships, not-for-profits or co-operative models of ownership and management. Sometimes that can be done completely within the private sector, sometimes – especially in the case of Wales - the state needs to help things along.
First thing's first, Cardiff Airport is important to Cardiff and its environs alone. As our capital, we should expect it to have decent air links – especially to be taken seriously for business. But this isn't economically essential for "Wales". North Wales has Liverpool and Manchester, mid Wales has Birmingham, while the far south east of Wales is probably within Bristol's catchment area anyway. Cardiff's catchment area should be everything west of Monmouthshire and south of Builth Wells – probably around 1.5-2million people.
I've touched on some of the issues surrounding Cardiff Airport and its future before, but let's be clear, once passenger figures start to reach 700,000-800,000 levels – which is entirely possible in the next 5 years based on the trends – there's a real possibility the whole thing could become so commercially unviable that closure could be an option. Something has to be done.
As far as I'm concerned this was the right decision. I'm pleased that the Welsh Government have taken some concerted and decisive action for once.
I can understand why the Tories are getting their knickers in a twist over this, as they're ideologically opposed to public ownership of anything, even if the airport will be "run commercially".
I'm also opposed to public ownership of things like airports, but I'm not opposed to public-private partnerships, not-for-profits or co-operative models of ownership and management. Sometimes that can be done completely within the private sector, sometimes – especially in the case of Wales - the state needs to help things along.
My biggest concern surrounds the Welsh Government hiding behind that old "commercial sensitivity/confidentiality" chestnut when questions were asked about this deal in the Senedd. When they finally revealed the numbers involved last week, my enthusiasm for this started to ebb.
I'm not a property expert or surveyor, but £52million seems a steep price tag for an airport that's barely keeping its annual passenger figures above the 1million mark. If I had to guess, I would've put the valuation at perhaps a half to two-thirds that.
Sion Barry also had a rather....optimistic....take on this in the Western Mail. I doubt Severnside airport is a goer now, and he seems to have ignored the presence of British Airways Maintenance, which is probably more important to the south Wales economy than the airport is.
Like it or not, it's done now. So what are the Welsh Government and the holding company put in charge of the airport going to do next?
Opportunities and threats
That could take pressure off the London airports, with Cardiff Airport effectively acting as a mini "Heathrow West". That could expand Cardiff's catchment area, as well as save fuel for aircraft travelling from North, Central and South America, perhaps Australasia too (via Los Angeles).
Bristol might end up taking more "bucket and spade" short haul European flights as a result, but Cardiff should try and retain/attract some economically important air links to major European capitals. That might require a greater mix of airlines using the airport, and that was one of the first things the new chair pointed towards. I presume that's what Carwyn Jones and Edwina Hart have in mind too.
I think worries around transport - especially road transport - are overblown. People drive from the valleys to Bristol Airport because Bristol offers more choice in terms of flights and destinations. It certainly isn't easier to get to than Cardiff, and I think it's a lazy excuse so people can get around coming out and saying "Cardiff Airport is rubbish" to avoid appearing unpatriotic. That's no reason to ignore transport issues though.
Cardiff Airport - or should that be Rhoose village - already has a railway station, but it's about 2km from the terminal itself. There have been mooted proposals for a direct rail link to the airport terminal, but it's meeting opposition.
If that did happen, then I think there would need to be significant improvements from the west – that means train services to/from Swansea and west Wales being able to use the airport station. That would require significant junction/capacity improvements at Bridgend though, which aren't part of any Network Rail or Welsh Government plans.
The Welsh Government and civil service are very good at underpinning their plans with extensive - perhaps over the top - strategies and frameworks. Delivery is a whole other matter.
I'm starting to get worried, as there was – as the new chair has strongly hinted – no concrete business plan for the airport in place when the Welsh Government bought it. They're working on that now.
The Tories and Bristol Airport are going to whinge about this forever and a day. I'm actually surprised at the Conservative's stance on this, as it seems they'd be quite happy to let Cardiff Airport fall by the wayside and let Bristol take as much potential business traffic as possible. They're right to criticise the price tag, but at least the Welsh Government are doing something.
As for Bristol Airport, it's rather arrogant of them to assume south Wales should always remain within their domain. One leading reason they took off ahead of Cardiff was that they secured several low-cost carriers - like EasyJet - at the right time. The roles could very easily have been reversed.
When you weigh up all the variables, in many respects Cardiff should be the predominant airport in south west Britain. The reasons it isn't include persistent mismanagement and things like the Severn Bridge tolls. Fingers crossed that's about to change.
I don't think Carwyn Jones or Edwina Hart need be hung out to dry on this – yet – as they need a chance to see this though. They deserve friendly criticism on this and be given a two to three year window to be judged upon. If it fails, they'll need to take the can for it, but I'll give them credit for trying and being bold for once.
Plaid and the Lib Dems are right to ask for details of the Welsh Government's (and assorted partners) plans for the airport. They're being a sensible opposition about this, perhaps seeing the dire situation at Cardiff Airport for what it is. The Tories aren't, and come across as throwing a wobbler over very little.
But the wider issue remains. The Welsh Government wouldn't have spent £52million on an airport without some sort of "plan" or "strategy" underpinning that rather ballsy decision....would they?
