Census 2011 : Qualifications

Not "fik" at all by the looks of it.
Judging by 2011 census data, Wales is - on the whole -
rather well-qualified, but divided between three large "camps".
(Pic : Swansea University)

• Census 2011 : What's stunting Welsh?
• Census 2011 : Losing our religion?
• Census 2011 : National Identity & Ethnicity
• Census 2011 : Disability,Carers & Health

It's time for another look at the 2011 census data, this time the highest level of qualifications held by  the Welsh working age population (16-65 year olds).

There are three broad categories as I see it : those with degree-level qualifications, those with no qualifications, and everyone else in between (without degrees, but with school-leaver, further education and technical qualifications like apprenticeships).

Degree Level (Level 4) Qualifications

Level 4 qualifications include bachelor's degrees and higher education certificates. A chunk of people holding these qualifications will probably also possess higher (Level 5,6,7+) qualifications like master's degrees or doctorates too.

Percentage of the working age population
with a degree-level qualification in 2011.
(Click to enlarge)

First, it's worth looking at the overall distribution of higher level qualifications in Wales. In 2011, an average 24% of the working age population in each local authority held a minimum of a degree level qualification. That compares to a local authority average of just 17% in 2001 – a 7% rise in the space of 10 years. That's could be down to a rapid expansion in university education during the Blair years.


In terms of patterns, the first thing to note is that the M4 corridor generally has a higher number of level 4 qualification holders than the rest of Wales. Monmouthshire (33.1%), Cardiff (32.3%) and the Vale of Glamorgan (29.8%) had the highest percentages overall. What also stands out is that rural parts of Wales, in general, tend to be home to above-average numbers of degree level qualification holders.

In terms of low numbers, the south Wales valleys have the overall lowest rates. Blaenau Gwent has the lowest percentage at 15.7%, with Merthyr Tydfil (17.8%), Caerphilly (18.7%) and Neath Port Talbot (18.8%) not far behind.

Change in the percentage of the population
with a degree-level qualification 2001-2011
(Click to enlarge)

What was a little surprising though is that north east Wales also had low numbers of level 4 qualification holders compared to the Welsh average. You wouldn't have expected that when you think of the number of manufacturing companies based there, however there could be an explanation for this. I'll come back to that later.

Next, it's worth looking at how things have changed compared to 2001. There were sharp rises in the number of Level 4 qualification holders across Wales, with some of the fastest rises in unsuspecting areas – Anglesey (+8.1%), Vale of Glamorgan (+8.7%), Monmouthshire (+8.7%) and Conwy (+7.9%).

The lowest rise was still a rather creditable 5.9% in Neath Port Talbot, with all Welsh local authorities seeing an average rise of between 6-7% compared to 2001 – even in the Valleys.

No Qualifications

Next, it's time to look at the working age population saying they didn't hold any qualifications.

Percentage of the working age
population with no qualifications in 2011.
(Click to enlarge)

In 2011, just under 26% of the Welsh working age population possessed no qualifications, with a local authority average/mean of 26.3%. This is another big change from 2001, when the local authority average was a whopping 33.3%. So the number of unqualified individuals has fallen by at least 7% nationally in the last ten years.


With the exception of Ceredigion (19.8% unqualified), it's mostly a reverse of degree level figures. Cardiff and the M4 corridor generally has fewer unqualified working age people than the rest of Wales. It's also worth pointing out that north east Wales makes up for its relative lack of higher-qualified individuals by having fewer unqualified residents – in particular Flintshire (23.5%).

The south Wales valleys authorities generally have higher unqualified populations than the urban and rural authorities. The highest percentage was in Blaenau Gwent (36%), with Merthyr Tydfil (34.8%), Rhondda Cynon Taf (31.8%) and Caerphilly (31.4%) not far behind.

Change in the percentage of working age people
with no qualifications 2001-2011.
(Click to enlarge)

But it's not all doom and gloom, especially when you look at how the numbers have changed over the last ten years.


The sharpest drops in unqualified people have been in those south Wales valleys authorities, similar to how they saw the sharpest drops in disabled people too. Some of these falls have been quite dramatic. 9.6% fall in Merthyr Tydfil, 9% in Blaenau Gwent, 8.1% in both Neath Port Talbot and Bridgend, 8.7% in RCT and 8.4% in Caerphilly.

It's actually the "better off" areas that have stagnated here (Vale of Glamorgan, Monmouthshire etc.) – if you call call "mere" 5-6% falls in unqualified people stagnation.

So overall, the situation with regard unqualified people – whilst remaining a challenge in post-industrial Wales – has improved significantly since 2001.

Those in between

The majority of working age people in Wales either have no qualifications, or degree-level qualifications – a total of 50.5% of the population fall into either one of those categories. But what about everyone else?

There's level 1 (GCSE D-G passes), level 2 (GCSE A*-C) and level 3 (A-Level) qualification holders, as well as those with technical qualifications and apprenticeships.

Those with apprenticeships were counted for the first time in 2011 as a separate category. They probably fell under the "other qualifications" category in 2001.

3.9% of the Welsh working age population had apprenticeship training in 2011, with the highest levels in Neath Port Talbot (5.1%), Flintshire (4.9%) and Anglesey (4.7%). Cardiff had the lowest (2.8%), while the south Wales valleys authorities were generally similar to the Welsh average/total (3-4%).

Those with "other qualifications" (presumably including apprenticeships in 2001) have only increased by 1% on average per local authority since 2001 – the biggest rises were in Cardiff (2%), Flintshire (1.9%) and Wrexham (1.8%).

Moves to create more apprenticeships have only happened in the last few years. But this might explain why the NE of Wales has lower than average numbers of degree-level qualified individuals. Apprenticeships and technical training might be more attractive and useful in terms of jobs and major employers in the area - like Airbus - compared to a degree. Similarly Neath Port Talbot and the steelworks.

There's been a shift from GCSEs (levels 1 & 2) towards A-Levels
and other further education qualifications (level 3) over the last ten years.
(Pic : BBC Wales)

Another bit of good news is that there's been a shift in numbers of people with level 1 and 2 qualifications to level 3. Overall, the numbers of people holding a maximum of a level 1 qualification (GCSE G-D equivalent) fell by 2% on 2001, whilst it fell by 4% at level 2 (GCSE A*-C equivalent). The sharpest falls here have been in rural Wales, with the south Wales valleys lagging behind slightly.

Those with level 3 (A-Level or equivalent) qualifications have risen by an average of 5.3% per local authority since 2001. Here, the valleys have seen some of the sharpest rises, like Merthyr (5.5%), Neath Port Talbot (5.8%), Caerphilly (6%) and Torfaen (6%).

This perhaps shows that the Welsh population is becoming better qualified below degree level, with people staying in education longer and getting further education qualifications as a result – especially in the valleys. The problem is trying to break into that hardcore 25-30% with no qualifications.

What can we learn from this?

Wales is better qualified now than in 2001 – This is the obvious one. Not only do more people hold qualifications, but the quality/level of those qualifications has improved too. The only issue is that it's unclear what academic subjects or technical areas those qualifications are in. They could be in subjects that aren't "economically relevant" one way or another. Though personally speaking, I'd rather people were learning for learning's sake – regardless of what subject that is.

Another big turnaround in The Valleys – Like the disability figures - where health has improved - there's been a dramatic change (downwards) in the levels of unqualified and (upwards) in the levels highly qualified individuals in the valleys. This could be another legacy of post-industrialisation.

Traditional heavy industries were largely categorised as "unskilled jobs" with no formal qualifications required to work in them. The economy's changed since, so I wouldn't be surprised if the higher levels of non-qualified people in the valleys are another hangover of the age of coal, iron and steel. As these people move into retirement age – and out of "working age" figures – I'd guess the numbers of unqualified people will continue to fall.
The changing nature of qualifications – It's unfair to say that all those with no qualifications aren't skilled. In many so-called "unskilled" jobs, one wrong move and you're dead. Before qualifications became more formalised, people working in farming, heavy industries and manufacturing will have had some sort of formal training, but wouldn't have had a piece of paper to signify that.

That could've been based on an optimistic notion that they would be there for life so wouldn't need transferable skills to take with them to another employer. Those types of training – especially in more technical areas like mine engineering or steel working - would probably be the equivalent to present NVQ standard (level 2 or 3). So levels of skilled workers aged 50-65 in post industrial EnglandandWales might be under-estimated slightly.

Wales has a competitive number of highly educated individuals - Although in terms of level 4 qualification holders Wales still lags behind the EnglandandWales average of 27.2% (dragged upwards by London and SE England), Wales (24.5%) compares favorably to English regions like:

• NE England (22.2%)
• NW England (24.4%)
• Yorks & Humber (23.3%)
• West Midlands (23.3%)
• East Midlands (23.6%)

Wales outperforms several English regions in terms of numbers
of degree-level qualification holders, and some parts of Wales
  perform similarly to Greater London. Why are we still lagging
behind economically then?
(Pic :The Guardian)

Was I right to include this as an economic advantage last year? There are pockets within Wales – especially Cardiff – that are very competitive even with Greater London.

Wales has an uncompetitive number of individuals with no qualifications – Here's the bad news. Although Wales might be doing well in terms of degree level qualification holders, we're not doing so well at EnglandandWales level in terms of of people holding no qualifications. At 25.9%, Wales has one of the highest percentages of working age people with no qualifications, only topped by the North East (26.5%) and West Midlands (26.6%). Some Welsh local authorities are towards the top of the table individually, doing much worse than individual English local authorities. Though once again, it's worth pointing out that things have improved overall.

No distinct correlation between qualification levels and the economy – Having large numbers of people with degree-level qualifications doesn't appear to result in any significant increase in economic output. Rural parts of Wales have large percentages of well-qualified individuals, yet it still lags behind in terms of economic productivity - as pointed out by both myself last year, and Syniadau more recently.

With better qualifications - and the investment put into attaining them -
comes an expectation of better paid, better jobs overall.
Does Wales have enough graduate jobs to match demand?
(Pic : University of Kent)

It's probably reasonable to suggest that having large numbers of highly-qualified individuals only boosts the economy in major urban centres. So it's linked, perhaps, to urbanisation and "city regions" rather than just a simple case of mass producing people with degrees and hoping that would boost economic performance itself. There's likely to be significant mass underemployment in Wales based on these figures, and it's little wonder Wales keeps draining graduates if that's true.


Professionalisation of vocational (public sector) roles? - It's worth trying to put degree-level qualifications in some perspective. Nursing, for example, was once a largely vocational role but it's now a requirement to hold a nursing degree to practice. Wales employs a larger proportion of people in health services, therefore it's reasonable to assume that changes like this will have contributed to an increase in the number of people with degrees. That's all well and good, but we need people with degrees in areas like science, engineering and maths too – as well as skilled apprentices - working in both private and public sectors.

Unclear impact of learning disabilities – Are those with no qualifications a hidden epidemic of learning disabilities? Some of the people with no qualifications could also have conditions that cause learning difficulties, like Down syndrome. Conditions like dyslexia and dyspraxia will affect a person's ability to attain higher level qualifications, or even general qualifications, through no fault of themselves.