Nobody cared –
Turnout across the board seems to be atrocious, and quite similar to
last year's referendum turnout. In hindsight, that probably makes the referendum turnout look a lot better than it was. This might've given Labour a boost,
but I don't think it all comes down to turnout. It's a real shame,
but I'm not really surprised anymore. Politics is becoming a massive
turn-off for many people - for whatever reason - and it's going to be
an uphill struggle to try and get them back.
People are fed up with austerity – That's not to say Labour wouldn't be doing similar if they were in the same position as the Coalition. The media turned this into a referendum on the Coalition - and it certainly helped Labour - though I'm sure local factors came into play as well in some cases. In the midst of a double-dip, you would hope that the UK Government will rethink their deficit reduction plans, perhaps focusing on developing infrastructure to boost competitiveness in all parts outside London. Easier said than done.
Decapitation! - One thing that really stood out was how many council leaders lost their seat, or came close to losing their seats - for all parties. Some really significant players are gone. Russell Roberts in RCT will make the headlines, but the one that stood out is the Lib Dem's Rodney Berman in Cardiff. He might have come across as slightly haughty and smug, but I don't really see what he did wrong. He always appeared to be a pretty decent figurehead for the city.
People are fed up with austerity – That's not to say Labour wouldn't be doing similar if they were in the same position as the Coalition. The media turned this into a referendum on the Coalition - and it certainly helped Labour - though I'm sure local factors came into play as well in some cases. In the midst of a double-dip, you would hope that the UK Government will rethink their deficit reduction plans, perhaps focusing on developing infrastructure to boost competitiveness in all parts outside London. Easier said than done.
Decapitation! - One thing that really stood out was how many council leaders lost their seat, or came close to losing their seats - for all parties. Some really significant players are gone. Russell Roberts in RCT will make the headlines, but the one that stood out is the Lib Dem's Rodney Berman in Cardiff. He might have come across as slightly haughty and smug, but I don't really see what he did wrong. He always appeared to be a pretty decent figurehead for the city.
Is that "sending a
message"? Or is it something more personal? Do the Welsh dislike
"Big Time Charlies"? It would make elected mayor scenarios
very interesting indeed.
Bridgend at a glance
Detailed results are available here.
Labour 39 (+12)
Independents 10 (-4)
Lib Dems 3 (-3)
Conservatives 1 (-5)
Plaid Cymru 1 (n/c)
Congratulations to those who've been re-elected or newly elected. Commiserations to those who missed out this time around or who lost their seats.
My predictions weren't that far off all in all. Labour did slightly better than expected, taking seats in many of the wards I dubbed "too close to call" quite comfortably, along with others. They had a particularly excellent result in Brackla, taking all four seats.
Despite Labour's successes, there were still a few shocks. Alana Davies - a cabinet member - bucked the county trend and lost her Porthcawl seat to an Independent. Several long-serving councillors also lost their seats, such as : the Hacking's in Brackla, Bob Burns in Oldcastle and David Unwin in Newcastle. Peter Foley also came within 7 votes of losing his seat in Morfa.
The Lib Dems got off lightly it seems – in fact I think they'll be secretly "happy" with their performance, keeping 3 seats. The Independent vote held up remarkably well across the county. In many wards, Plaid were standing for the first time and gave a reasonable account of themselves, without really excelling.
It seemed to be the Conservatives who really suffered in Bridgend, losing 5 of their 6 seats. That's a pretty miserable performance for a party that has a decent base in the southern half of the county. What went wrong there?
Party by party national analysis
Was 2011 a high tide mark?
Losing overall control of Monmouthshire borders on incompetence. As mentioned before, they took a real hammering in Bridgend and even worse hammerings in Cardiff and the Vale of Glamorgan. However, it looks as though they held up reasonably well in north Wales and they still have a respectable number of councillors across Wales as a whole.
Pressure will be starting to pile on Andrew Davies. He hasn't seemed to capture the imagination of the public, the Conservatives are in serious danger of undoing all of the good work Nick Bourne did in "detoxifying" the brand, there seem to be serious organisation issues within the party and they are guilty by association with regard the UK Coalition. If they can create a clear narrative within the Assembly, they'll be able to turn things around, but it's increasingly looking like an uphill struggle. For those reasons, this is a worse result than they are making out.
It was always on the cards – a tremendous night for Labour in Wales. They pretty much recovered most - if not all - of their 2008 losses, retaking the major urban areas of Wales and the Valley authorities. Labour picked up seats from every single opposition party, and the independents, without breaking too much of a sweat. Depending on the result of the by-election in Gwynedd, Labour are now the only party in overall control of any Welsh local authority.
Cardiff will be the feather in their cap, but I think they'll be delighted to have a massive stranglehold on Caerphilly, RCT, Bridgend and NPT as well as thumping swings from the Tories in the Vale of Glamorgan. It was a great performance across the board.
Did Wales "send the Westminster Coalition a message"? Not really. Not even Ed Milliband will really care that the Valleys have turned red again. The Midlands and the south of England will be the main battleground in 2015, but it helps the cause to know that there'll be a fair few Labour MP's returned from Wales as usual.
The focus on Westminster issues, at least at the top level, played its part in victory once again. They won't be able to do that forever, though. Two words – hospital reorganisations.
An embarrassing result in Cardiff, and real leatherings in Wrexham, Newport and Swansea. But less so elsewhere. At a local level, they are an effective party and to be fair, always have been. They are clearly paying the price for their perceived mistakes at UK level. Did they deserve that? Probably not, but it's easier to kick the junior partner in a coalition. They seemed resigned to fate in these elections, losing candidates through simple withdrawal or defections.
Maybe it's time for some of the more prominent Lib Dems to stop highlighting every minor "success" or "concession" they get in Westminster and focus more on what they can do in Wales.
A bad night, but nowhere near as bad as it could've been. When austerity bites, people run back to Daddy Labour. Parties like Plaid - that compete largely on the same ground - will be squeezed out. The results in Caerphilly, Cardiff and Neath Port Talbot do require addressing and a significant rebuilding on the ground. The results in Rhondda Cynon Taf will likely be embarrassing to Leanne Wood on a personal level.
However, aside from the disappointment, there's a bit of hope there. Their core vote turned out - especially in the "heartland". Also, on the surface of it, it looks as though Plaid's overall share of the vote won't have dipped anywhere near as much as the Tories or Lib Dems. There's no need to be too downbeat really, but Plaid are going to have to become more than a party that thrives when Labour are unpopular. How they do that is a hard question to answer.
Is the "age of the independent" over in Welsh local politics? Not quite, but they took a hit in most parts of the country. They do, however, remain in firm control of Pembrokeshire, and still hold sway in many other authorities. I think the question many people are starting to ask themselves is – what do independents actually stand for? Is it right that they can form a group and get away with not having a manifesto or a set of aims?
Should they be forced to form a registered party if they have over X number of seats? Perhaps, should registered independents be banned from forming political groups?
None of the "other" parties appear to have made much headway in Wales. The Green campaign has been an abject failure. I'm genuinely surprised they didn't pick up seats in Cardiff, as they've been quite vocal on local planning and transport issues in the city for many years now.
There were no far-right or far-left successes. I don't think the likes of the BNP or the National Front will ever make even a minor impact on Welsh politics the way things are going. That pleases me.
UKIP appear to have kept the seat that they had, and added one. The UKIP situation will be one to watch on a UK-wide level. Could they be emerging as a major player on the populist right, but without the "racist" baggage? That would be an interesting development, and would cause a headache for the Tories, and perhaps even Labour in some parts of England, if they can convince enough white, working-class voters to jump ship.
Bridgend at a glance
Detailed results are available here.
Labour 39 (+12)
Independents 10 (-4)
Lib Dems 3 (-3)
Conservatives 1 (-5)
Plaid Cymru 1 (n/c)
Congratulations to those who've been re-elected or newly elected. Commiserations to those who missed out this time around or who lost their seats.
My predictions weren't that far off all in all. Labour did slightly better than expected, taking seats in many of the wards I dubbed "too close to call" quite comfortably, along with others. They had a particularly excellent result in Brackla, taking all four seats.
Despite Labour's successes, there were still a few shocks. Alana Davies - a cabinet member - bucked the county trend and lost her Porthcawl seat to an Independent. Several long-serving councillors also lost their seats, such as : the Hacking's in Brackla, Bob Burns in Oldcastle and David Unwin in Newcastle. Peter Foley also came within 7 votes of losing his seat in Morfa.
The Lib Dems got off lightly it seems – in fact I think they'll be secretly "happy" with their performance, keeping 3 seats. The Independent vote held up remarkably well across the county. In many wards, Plaid were standing for the first time and gave a reasonable account of themselves, without really excelling.
It seemed to be the Conservatives who really suffered in Bridgend, losing 5 of their 6 seats. That's a pretty miserable performance for a party that has a decent base in the southern half of the county. What went wrong there?
Party by party national analysis
Conservatives
Was 2011 a high tide mark?
Losing overall control of Monmouthshire borders on incompetence. As mentioned before, they took a real hammering in Bridgend and even worse hammerings in Cardiff and the Vale of Glamorgan. However, it looks as though they held up reasonably well in north Wales and they still have a respectable number of councillors across Wales as a whole.
Pressure will be starting to pile on Andrew Davies. He hasn't seemed to capture the imagination of the public, the Conservatives are in serious danger of undoing all of the good work Nick Bourne did in "detoxifying" the brand, there seem to be serious organisation issues within the party and they are guilty by association with regard the UK Coalition. If they can create a clear narrative within the Assembly, they'll be able to turn things around, but it's increasingly looking like an uphill struggle. For those reasons, this is a worse result than they are making out.
Labour
It was always on the cards – a tremendous night for Labour in Wales. They pretty much recovered most - if not all - of their 2008 losses, retaking the major urban areas of Wales and the Valley authorities. Labour picked up seats from every single opposition party, and the independents, without breaking too much of a sweat. Depending on the result of the by-election in Gwynedd, Labour are now the only party in overall control of any Welsh local authority.
Cardiff will be the feather in their cap, but I think they'll be delighted to have a massive stranglehold on Caerphilly, RCT, Bridgend and NPT as well as thumping swings from the Tories in the Vale of Glamorgan. It was a great performance across the board.
Did Wales "send the Westminster Coalition a message"? Not really. Not even Ed Milliband will really care that the Valleys have turned red again. The Midlands and the south of England will be the main battleground in 2015, but it helps the cause to know that there'll be a fair few Labour MP's returned from Wales as usual.
The focus on Westminster issues, at least at the top level, played its part in victory once again. They won't be able to do that forever, though. Two words – hospital reorganisations.
Liberal Democrats
An embarrassing result in Cardiff, and real leatherings in Wrexham, Newport and Swansea. But less so elsewhere. At a local level, they are an effective party and to be fair, always have been. They are clearly paying the price for their perceived mistakes at UK level. Did they deserve that? Probably not, but it's easier to kick the junior partner in a coalition. They seemed resigned to fate in these elections, losing candidates through simple withdrawal or defections.
Maybe it's time for some of the more prominent Lib Dems to stop highlighting every minor "success" or "concession" they get in Westminster and focus more on what they can do in Wales.
Plaid Cymru
A bad night, but nowhere near as bad as it could've been. When austerity bites, people run back to Daddy Labour. Parties like Plaid - that compete largely on the same ground - will be squeezed out. The results in Caerphilly, Cardiff and Neath Port Talbot do require addressing and a significant rebuilding on the ground. The results in Rhondda Cynon Taf will likely be embarrassing to Leanne Wood on a personal level.
However, aside from the disappointment, there's a bit of hope there. Their core vote turned out - especially in the "heartland". Also, on the surface of it, it looks as though Plaid's overall share of the vote won't have dipped anywhere near as much as the Tories or Lib Dems. There's no need to be too downbeat really, but Plaid are going to have to become more than a party that thrives when Labour are unpopular. How they do that is a hard question to answer.
Independents & Minor
Parties
Is the "age of the independent" over in Welsh local politics? Not quite, but they took a hit in most parts of the country. They do, however, remain in firm control of Pembrokeshire, and still hold sway in many other authorities. I think the question many people are starting to ask themselves is – what do independents actually stand for? Is it right that they can form a group and get away with not having a manifesto or a set of aims?
Should they be forced to form a registered party if they have over X number of seats? Perhaps, should registered independents be banned from forming political groups?
None of the "other" parties appear to have made much headway in Wales. The Green campaign has been an abject failure. I'm genuinely surprised they didn't pick up seats in Cardiff, as they've been quite vocal on local planning and transport issues in the city for many years now.
There were no far-right or far-left successes. I don't think the likes of the BNP or the National Front will ever make even a minor impact on Welsh politics the way things are going. That pleases me.
UKIP appear to have kept the seat that they had, and added one. The UKIP situation will be one to watch on a UK-wide level. Could they be emerging as a major player on the populist right, but without the "racist" baggage? That would be an interesting development, and would cause a headache for the Tories, and perhaps even Labour in some parts of England, if they can convince enough white, working-class voters to jump ship.
