Nadolig Llawen!

I've given consideration to packing this in. That's nothing to do with lack of interest, in fact I've exceeded my own expectations there. It's as though I've been blogging on autopilot. Perhaps an excuse for a break has come at the right time, though I felt like flipping a coin to decide if it would be permanent or not.

In the coming year, I'd like to look at : local government in Wales – which couldn't come soon enough in my opinion - broadcasting and who Wales' “twins” are around the world.

I'll hopefully finish my look at contentious public policy issues (including capital punishment) and there's Part II of the Silk Commission too. I've considered looking at the recent Census “stunting” of the Welsh language, but I think that's best left to fluent Welsh-speakers to be honest.

I'll give a full evaluation of David Melding's serialised proposals for a federal UK (if it's finished next year). I also do the usual stuff covering bigger stories in Bridgend, the Welsh economy and the Assembly.

There've been rumours of a Welsh Government reshuffle. There were some "interesting" searches directing here at the end of October/early November (that, in the wrong context, could've easily been misread!). Carwyn Jones was coy when asked on that, but I wouldn't be surprised if it did happen early in 2013.

Editing Neophobia has taken longer than I thought, but the final draft should be finished next week. I'm not sure how long formatting will take. Due to the recent tax issues I'm reconsidering whether to use Amazon as "publisher" and distributor, though I'm unlikely to change my mind for practical reasons. My guess is that it'll be out in February.

If, over the holidays, you're bored, you can't stand either your family or the crap on television or you just don't have a life, then here are the most read posts from the last year. It might give you an insight into what sort of posts are popular.

1. Cardiff Green Investment Bank Bid – Enough's Enough
2. Wales: An Economic Profile I – Primary Industries & Energy : The first in a six-part look at the state of the Welsh economy at present.
3. Defending Wales I – What are Wales' strategic defence needs? : The start of a five-part look into a possible independent Welsh defence policy. I might return to this in the future.
4. Forced Cymraeg - A special investigation : A tongue-in-cheek look into the thoughts behind the anti-Welsh language "movement". See also : Mysterious superhero rids Wales of Cymraeg.
5. Whither Porthcawl?
6. Kings of their castles : Do our government structures nurture corporate psychopathy? Or is Carmarthenshire Council just a running joke of a local authority? Consider the recent problems with the South Wales Guardian when reading it again.
7. Linking north and south Wales by rail
8. Offa's Gap – What? When? Where? & Why?
9. March 1^st 2036 – Cardiff, Wales
10. Leanne's Greenprint for The Valleys

Honourable mentions:

A Welsh Monarchy
The Big Independence Question (@ Cambria)
Could Wales host a Commonwealth Games?
Dirty deeds done dirt cheap?
The future of the Welsh media report

The only thing important or relevant enough over the next fortnight worthy of a blog is the Assembly recall for a vote on Council Tax benefit regulations. I think I've done enough this year to say, just this once, “I can't be arsed.”

Cyfarchion y Tymor pawb!

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What Wales gets from the European Union

It's bloated. It's bureaucratic. Its budget is yet to be (formally) decided.
What does Wales actually get from EU membership?
(Pic : capreform.eu)

I don't think issues surrounding the European Union are, really, at the forefront of most people's minds. It does look as though an agreement on the EU budget for 2013 is imminent after an EU Commission climbdown, but the agreement for the budget between member states for 2014-2020 remains at an impass. These matters impact Wales whether we like it or not.

The EU budget

A few weeks ago, Conservative backbenchers and Labour MPs voted against a rise in the EU's budget, and passed an amendment calling for a real-terms cut. You can argue this is a reasonable stand – if national governments have to make sacrifices, shouldn't Brussels?

The relationship between Wales and the EU is slightly different than many other parts of the UK. Although the EU failed to agree a budget at their last summit, any cuts or freeze will be noticeable here. A failure to agree to a budget would put long-term projects at risk.

Plaid Cymru MEP, Jill Evans, spelt out some benefits of Wales within the EU, working out that every Welsh person is getting back £40 more than is put in. That roughly works out at Wales being £120million better off as a whole.

That doesn't sound like much, but I think the benefits are much wider. It's also fair to say that some of this money may well have been (perceivably) mismanaged. I said this a few months ago:

"EU-funds appear to be used for things like public realm improvements, or incredibly niche schemes, spreading funds far too thinly. In the period 2007-2013, £1.5billion has been spent on the public sector (mainly universities), £99million on the third sector (including ~£6.1million to the likes of AWEMA), and just £23million in the private sector."

It's also worth pointing out that the EU's own strict guidelines, regulations and rules mean that an awful lot of effort needs to go into getting the funds in the first place. That doesn't mean that some of the people bidding for these funds are always suitable. Note Jac o' the North's account on that.

It's also right to point out that seeing grants as the be all and end all solution in Wales, or a natural "Welsh way of doing things", is perhaps creating an incredibly damaging, short-term, dependant mindset.

A Jocelyn Davies AM (Plaid, South Wales East) motion passed the Senedd – including support from Welsh Labour AMs – that pressed the Welsh Government to "make representations" to the UK Government, opposing the budget cut.

Are (UK) Labour equally concerned about the "threat" posed
by UKIP as the Tories seemingly are?
(Pic : The Times)

Now, I don't know why Westminster Labour have decided to lurch towards euroscepticism-lite. Maybe they're just hardening their stance to appear "tougher on Europe" than they were in government to stave of a UKIP threat amongst the working class.

I don't have any truck with UKIP's views, but in terms of public debate, they've opened a window – even if it only lets in muck spreading wafts. They're eccentric - with a Colonel Blimp jingoism and a twee view of the UK's place in the world – but deserve to, and will, be taken seriously in 2014 and 2015. However, I think it's too soon to be building them up as an electoral force. Due to FPTP, the chances of them gaining MPs will be slim.

Welsh Labour are, seemingly, more pro-Europe that the Westminster party. They might be disciplined on the surface, but there's a history of differences causing "tensions". The first chinks in Tony Blair's armour came from Wales in the shape of Rhodri Morgan.

If Carwyn Jones were taken seriously as a head of government by his own party, instead of being seen as a loyal provincial governor, I'd put £10 on him verses Ed within two rounds.

It's also heartening that Welsh politicians can debate these matters of importance in a reasoned and mature manner, while British politicians try to out-clown each other in the Westminster lobby on News 24 trying to prove who wants to cut the most.

How does Wales benefit from EU membership?

Broader benefits

Jobs – The First Minister acknowledges that at least 150,000 jobs were based wholly or entirely on EU membership, and 50,000 were employed directly by companies from other EU member states. You could also suggest EU membership imperils Welsh jobs – especially if operations move to more attractive places in eastern Europe. It's also fair to say these jobs wouldn't disappear overnight if the UK left.

Free trade & membership of the world's largest economy – As I highlighted back in September, Wales is less reliant on the EU for our exports than the UK as a whole. But having free and open access to a market of half a billion people in one of the wealthiest parts of the planet (in spite of what's going on) is a no-brainer.

Carwyn Jones recently said that 50,000 people in
Wales were employed by companies based elsewhere in the EU -
including ~500 at (German-owned) Siemens Diagnostics in Llanberis.
(Pic : Daily Post)

Free movement – Although the UK isn't part of the Schengen agreement, being able to move visa-free between large economies like England, Germany and France - as well as faster-growing economies like Poland - should be considered a huge benefit. It's a shame we tend to focus on those coming in instead of thinking about going out – in business terms especially. It also has spin offs like guaranteeing free health care in EU nations.

Peace & political stability – The timing of the EU being awarded the Nobel Peace Prize was...."amusing". The EU has developed a strength in its diversity - when it was once a weakness. Instead of Europe's great powers using smaller nations as chess pieces in their quest to dominate the continent (or further afield), disagreements are now thrashed out around negotiating tables in Brussels and Strasbourg. There's also a strong commitment to liberal democracy in all member states – though that's starting to slip in places like Hungary. It's just a shame the European institutions are so cumbersome, but maybe they need to be.

Harmonised pan-European regulations – Whenever we hear about EU laws, they are usually BS about straight bananas and weights and measures. What about mobile phone roaming? Environmental regulations? Standards on chemical safety and water quality? Car and air safety standards? Veterinary and agricultural standards? Cross-border crime fighting? It's also important to point out that the much-maligned European Court of Human Rights isn't part of the European Union.

Specifically important benefits for Wales

Agricultural Programmes – Includes the European Fisheries Fund, European Agricultural Rural Development Fund (worth about £195million to Wales between 2007-2013) and Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). The CAP alone is said to be worth £350million to Welsh farmers every year.

The Common Agricultural Policy is due for reform, but
without it, would Wales have much of a farming industry left?
(Pic : BBC Wales)

You can argue that farms shouldn't need subsidy, and should be encouraged to become more commercially viable – that's supposed to be amongst these funds main aims. These funds are in desperate need of reform – especially since EU enlargement - and make up a sizable chunk (€270billion) of the EU's total budget. I think attempts at reform have probably been blocked by the French and Spanish, who benefit disproportionately from the current arrangements. The UK does too, it has to be said.

Convergence Funds – Commonly referred to under the umbrella of "Objective One", or the more grand European Regional Development Fund (ERDF). These funds are worth up to £1billion over a 6 year period. It looks like West Wales & The Valleys might qualify again in 2013. That's not really good news, as convergence funds have to be match-funded by the Welsh Government and are a sign of a weak economy.

These funds have had a big impact on the university sector in particular. Jill Evans mentioned using EU funding to electrify the north Wales mainline recently, and that's the sort of project you would expect this money to be spent on. However, as noted earlier, I believe many of the projects over the last few decades have been well-meant, but haven't delivered anywhere near the outcomes – especially in terms of economic development and infrastructure – that West Wales & The Valleys desperately need.

"Objective One" is probably the most visible
sign of the EU in Wales. But is the money
being invested wisely?
(Pic : Ceredigion Council)

European Social Fund – Another branch of "Objective One". This is worth around £690million over six years. These funds are used on the "social schemes". For example : reducing economic inactivity, "social justice", up-skilling. But it also makes its way to the third sector, who haven't covered themselves in glory of late. The rules are incredibly specific and so full of hoops, that I doubt much money makes it to the front lines.

Specific Investment Funds – This includes the JESSICA framework (funds aimed at developing urban areas). It could be considered a branch of the main convergence funding. The Welsh Government have set up and Urban Development Fund and the Regeneration Investment Fund under this EU framework. It's supposed to be used on regeneration projects. In fact, a chunk of RIFW's cash is going to be spent on Neath town centre over the next few years. Again, the outcomes and management should be questioned. The JEREMIE initiative also helps/helped the Welsh Government's finance arm (Finance Wales) support small and medium businesses. It was/is worth £150million.

Erasmus– A pan-European exchange programme. Although it's said only 630 students (and 112 staff) from Wales have participated in the programme last year, compared to the all-UK figure (~12,000 participants) that's roughly what you would expect – perhaps slightly more than our population share. Cardiff University also hosted one of the largest overseas Erasmus contingents in the UK. Even brief periods living and studying in another EU state would obvious help cross-cultural understanding and – hopefully – international relations should they grow up to become business or political leaders.

What we also get, and what we'll get in the future

London Mayor, Boris Johnson, recently mooted a "pared down" relationship
with the EU - citing Switzerland and Norway. That might suit London, but
would it suit Wales, or the UK as a whole?
(Pic : BBC)

Bone-crushing levels of bureaucracy. No (Welsh) voice at the top tables. The pointless spectacle of moving between Strasbourg and Brussels. The ongoing "will they, won't they" fiscal union debacle. Nigel Farage. Uninspiring leaders at European level. And a voice for lunatics on the far-left and far-right in the European Parliament.

And it's fair to point out that there's significantly more subvention/subsidy from the UK that there is from the EU. We might be £40 better off in Europe, but thanks to leaky submarines, West Ham's new stadium and RBS – and other, more important things like social security – we're estimated to be about £4000 "better off" in the UK. Even if most of that is borrowed via the Treasury's credit card.

So although I clearly believe there are benefits to Welsh membership of the EU – via the UK at the moment – there's a need for reform.

The Lisbon Treaty went a long way towards doing that. It merged several institutions and created, in effect, a European constitution. But I think things are coming to a head due to the eurozone's fiscal problems.

My hunch is that the worst of the Euro fiscal crisis is behind us, but there's nothing ahead but a decade of stagnation. I think a new treaty is inevitable – probably creating a full fiscal union between eurozone members – and, ultimately, a "two-speed Europe".

Guess who'll be trundling along in the outside lane, indicating to take the next exit - with Wales in tow. Would that be in Wales' interests? It's a big question, and one that's perhaps too difficult to answer at the moment.

But, at the end of the day - whether you're Welsh, Slovene, German or French - we're all Europeans aren't we? If you even consider the British Isles a part of Europe. It appears the Leader of the Opposition in the Assembly doesn't.

Stronger together....

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Domestic Violence White Paper

I was going to post something on yesterday's council tax benefit ruckus from the Senedd. The Welsh Government cover themselves in brown, pongy glory once again.  I'm pretty sure Rhodri Glyn Thomas (Plaid, Carmarthen E & Dinefwr) warned of this happening a good 8-9 months ago. As there's very little to work off other than some strongly-worded statements, finger pointing and incompetence, I decided against.

He's got himself into another fine mess on that, but Local Government and Communities Minister, Carl Sargeant (Lab, Alyn & Deeside), recently launched a white paper drawing up proposals for a new law on domestic violence and violence against women. He's asking for consultation responses – some representations from major domestic violence groups have already been submitted, I believe – which are due by February 22^nd 2013.

The Problem

Domestic violence – defined as "patterns of controlling, coercive, threatening behaviour, violence or abuse" - is said to cost Wales up to £800million a year. That figure presumably covers costs of social services, healthcare and perhaps even extending into the economy if domestic violence victims are too intimidated to go out and work.

The Welsh Government have also make the (more than welcome) decision to make the domestic violence provisions gender neutral. If this had been women only – even though women make up the majority of victims - it would've neglected victims of domestic violence in same sex couples and male victims.

"Violence against women" – another core/specific part of the proposed legislation – is defined by the United Nations as "actions....likely to result in physical, sexual or psychological harm or suffering to women." This would include, presumably, things like stalking and harassment.

The Welsh Government believe that people have a "right to feel safe" and believe that legislation in this area will go some way to improve the services provided to victims.

Specific Proposals

Leadership & Accountability

The approach by the public sector in Wales to domestic violence is said to be "innovative". However, the Task & Finish Group preceding this white paper said there needed to be improvements to "leadership and accountability". They also want to improve consistency across Wales, as these issues are – in the main – the responsibility of local authority-run social services.

There are early proposals for a Welsh Government appointed adviser on the issue, but that falls short of the Commissioners for Children, Older People and the Welsh language, for example. The adviser would have the power to carry out investigations and contribute to funding decisions taken by the Welsh Government. Some of these powers will link in with those outlined in the proposed Social Services Bill from earlier this year (details here).

Our old friend - local authority collaboration – makes an appearance, again tying in with the Social Services Bill.

Education & Awareness

The white paper cites studies showing that between a quarter and a third of young women have been victims of some sort of unwanted sexual attention or harassment at some point. The Welsh Government want people to "engage" with the proposed Bill. They want to ensure that relationship education is on the school curriculum.

The Welsh Government want to dispel myths amongst the public about domestic violence and even rape victims – for example, the belief that revealing clothing makes a woman partially or wholly responsible for being sexually assaulted.

The aim, through education, is to reduce victim-blaming, make violence unacceptable and reduce "damaging gender stereotypes". The Welsh Government want to set national standards to ensure services relating to domestic violence aren't as varied as currently, by placing more statutory duties on education/prevention on local authorities.

To address inconsistencies in training to deal with abuse, there are proposals for a new national advice framework (groan!) for everyone ranging from the public to public leaders. The Welsh public sector will also have a statutory obligation to have a domestic & sexual violence policy.

Strengthening Services

The Welsh Government want to improve information sharing between relevant public bodies and groups so they can improve safety of victims at a much earlier stage, and help identify perpetrators sooner.

Welsh public bodies – like the NHS - will also be expected to "act and ask" by disclosing information to relevant agencies, and increasing referrals to relevant bodies dealing with abuse. They also want to provide safer accommodation for victims, so they don't feel obliged to stay at home with an abuser.

It's hinted more than once that the capital and resource costs of this might be difficult for local authorities and the NHS to meet. So, one more, "regional collaboration" crops up.

Conclusions

The broad aims are welcome – domestic violence is a particularly vicious crime because, more often than not, it traps the victims emotionally – but I do have some issues with a few of the proposals.

I might be open to accusations of hypocrisy considering what I said about replicating Scotland's Sexual Offences Act in Wales (if criminal justice powers are devolved), but I imagine most outward examples of domestic violence would be covered by current assault and harassment laws. The psychological abuse would be hard to define or (in some cases) prove.

It's a tricky thing to tackle by legislation alone. I think the Welsh Government realise this, and that's why they've focused on attitudes and services, but I fear this is going to get bogged down in public sector buzzwords and policy wonk talk.

The UN definition of "violence against women", as cited in the white paper, might refer to violence in specific circumstances – for example, in warzones, or using rape as a weapon. Maybe I'm wrong about that. I don't think that definition's entirely applicable to Wales, but obviously some aspects (i.e human trafficking) would be.

Like housing, I fear that local authorities elsewhere in the UK might see the more aggressive approach taken to tackle domestic abuse here - by a "progressive, caring" Welsh Government - as a way to pass problems onto us that they should be addressing themselves.

A proper course of relationship education in schools as part of PSE lessons would be wholeheartedly welcome, and I've mentioned that before. I just hope it's genuine and well-planned so it doesn't become another box-ticking exercise. It's this public education and awareness aspect that would make the big difference, seeing prevention as the best cure.

But let's not go over the top. Men still make up – by some significant margin – the perpetrators and victims of general violence. You would think that a "Violence Against Men" Bill, under the same benchmarks, would probably be laughed out of any legislature in the world. Once you take into account things like the 1995 Srebrenica massacre - Bosniak  men and boys were specifically targeted - the concept of gender-based violence against men might not be so laughable.

On the other hand, I can see why a "Violence Against Women" Bill makes sense, as it's usually (but not always) a symptom of something else, or a way to exert control rather than spontaneous.

However, the title of the white paper and (presumably) any future Bill might give the mistaken impression that it'll clamp down on the violence itself. Sadly, I don't think it would.

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Welsh Budget 2013-14

Finance Minister Jane Hutt's (Lab, Vale of Glamorgan) Welsh Government budget for the coming year passed the Senedd earlier by 25 votes to 18.

Here's a summary of the total spending allocations (combined revenue and capital spending plans) and their change compared to the plans in the 2012-13 supplementary budget from June this year.

Main Expenditure Group (Total spending)	Budget 2013-14	Change from 2012-13 Supplementary Budget
Health & Social Services	£6,430million	-£115million
Local Government & Communities	£5,204million	+£57million
Education & Skills	£2,048million	+£15million
Housing, Regeneration & Heritage	£488.2million	-£38.9million
Central Services & Administration	£350.2million	-£10.8million
Environment & Sustainability	£326.8million	-£13.7million
Business, Enterprise, Technology & Science	£315.3million	-£1.3million

In the final budget narrative, Jane Hutt notes:

• An extra £175million in capital spending over the next two years to support "strategically important projects" as outlined in the Welsh Infrastructure Plan.
• The above includes an extra £16million towards housing on public sector land (up to 1,800 new homes) and an extra £30million to the Wales Economic Growth Fund over the next two years.
• Allocating £6million in extra funding from reserves towards Business Rate Relief schemes in Enterprise Zones.
• The establishment of an Advisory Group to see how the proposed budget impacts equalities.
• A continuation of the Pupil Deprivation Grant from last year's deal between Labour and the Liberal Democrats. This has been increased by £4.7million.

It's also been announced today that there'll be an extra £200million for capital spending on schools - funded via local borrowing - while up to £300million will be raised via a not-for-profit mechanism (which sounds suspiciously like the "pie in the sky" and "uncosted" Build for Wales idea mooted by Plaid Cymru in 2011 and roundly criticised by opposition parties) to complete the A465 duelling. This budget passed because of a deal between Labour and Plaid Cymru. Plaid Cymru abstained from the vote, but they got:

• £20million in 2013-14 and £20million in 2014-15 to create new apprenticeships. This could be topped up to £60million via European and private sector funding. It's estimated this could create between 8,000 and 10,500 apprenticeships.
• £10million over the next two years towards a new joint science park facility for Bangor and Aberystwyth Universities. It's been hinted/rumoured that this might be based on Anglesey.

Last year, Plaid criticised the Liberal Democrats for "selling themselves cheaply". I said it seemed as if Kirsty Williams sold herself short as well. But is there that much of a difference between the two deals?

Plaid's deal might be a bit more "concrete" in terms of outcomes than the Pupil Premium – which seems, on the surface, a bit like throwing money at a problem - and the science park is a commitment to a specific project. So, I'd say Plaid (and Labour, as an expansion of apprenticeships would reduce unemployment) have marginally got a better deal, but it isn't some fantastic game changer.

The only difference between this year and last year really are the sums of money involved and Plaid being a bit more practical - which is welcome to see. But there's no need to go overboard hailing the deal's virtues just yet.

As for the budget as a whole, the overall impression is "steady as she goes." The total budget is down by ~£108million, but the figures I've given appear more dramatic because I used the supplementary budget (which I believe is a more accurate measure of what's actually spent) as the comparison, not last year's final budget. If I'd used 2012-13's final budget instead, then the figure would still be a cut, but a smaller one – probably around the £50million mark, which matches the cut to the block grant.

Regardless of which budget is used, there's another obvious cut to the health and social services budget as a whole (NHS spending itself is largely protected), which the Conservatives in particular – I'd imagine – are going to use as a stick beat the Welsh Government with.

There are ongoing worries there. This isn't the first year concerns have been raised regarding NHS efficiency savings. In fact, this year's obligatory Darren Millar (Con, Clwyd West) outburst matches last year's almost word for word. The only difference is that this year's spending gap is bigger, and it's getting worse. I think time's starting to run out for the Welsh Government and Local Health Boards to get a grip of the issue. As an ordinary member of the public, with family members who use NHS services regularly, I'll say this – we're starting to notice it.

There's an overall (real terms) 8.7% cut in capital budgets, so Jane Hutt's been a bit more careful about where that money's gone, focusing on getting return on that investment – and Plaid played a role in directing it.

But judging by Labour's shopping list in the Infrastructure Plan, borrowing powers couldn't come soon enough. It could make the difference, for example, between Newport waiting years for M4 improvements or decades. We'll see if Gorgeous George has any early Christmas presents tomorrow, but I don't think we should be getting our hopes up somehow.

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Senedd Watch - November 2012

It's been an busy month in Cardiff Bay by usual standards, so my apologies for this post's length.

• Plaid Cymru criticised Labour MPs from Wales for voting with some Westminster Conservatives against a rise in the European Union's budget – which could translate into cuts in structural and Common Agricultural Policy funds for Wales. On November 21^st, the Assembly approved a Plaid Cymru-sponsored motion calling for the Welsh Government to “make representations” opposing the move.
• Welsh-language broadcaster, S4C, celebrated its 30^th anniversary on 1^st November. Chief Executive, Ian Jones, said they were considering English-language dubs for some programmes via the red button. S4C were also carrying out a feasibility study with regard moving to three smaller sites.
• Julie Morgan AM (Lab, Cardiff North) called for the creation of a “green belt” around Cardiff, following Cardiff Council's draft Local Development Plan, which plans for 45,000 homes between 2006 and 2026.
• The Children's Commissioner called for a new inquiry into child abuse at north Wales children's homes in the 1970s and 1980s, after it was revealed senior public figures may have been involved as part of a paedophile ring. The First Minister urged victims to go to the police, and said he would look at the terms of reference to the original 1997-2000 Waterhouse Inquiry. Plaid Cymru leader, Leanne Wood, also joined the calls, saying that victims “should be heard”.
• UK Home Secretary, Teresa May, announced a new inquiry into the abuse on November 6th, which will be lead by the National Crime Agency. A separate inquiry will investigate the terms of reference of the Waterhouse Inquiry. On November 13^th, a cross-party group of AMs called on an outside police force to investigate North Wales Police's handling of the abuse.
• New regulations came into force in Wales granting children a “right to play”, and placing a duty on local authorities to assess play area provision and suitability. Deputy Minister for Social Services & Children, Gwenda Thomas (Lab, Neath), said Wales is “leading the way on promoting children's rights” and that play is “vital for children's development.”
• A report - commissioned by the Welsh Government - found that scrapping Severn bridge tolls would boost the south Wales economy by £107million. The First Minister called for control of the tolls to be devolved to Wales once the current toll concession expires in 2017-18.
• Mick Antoniw AM (Lab, Pontypridd) criticised Cardiff Metropolitan University for “misleading and bogus” advertising claims suggesting they were Wales' top “new university”, which damaged institutions like Glamorgan University. In a related development, Education Minister, Leighton Andrews (Lab, Rhondda), granted Cardiff Met a reprieve from a merger with Glamorgan and Newport Universities, which will allow the former two to merge in April 2013.
• The Assembly's Finance Committee expressed concerns that the Welsh Government's draft spending plans won't meet all of their proposed objectives once inflation has been taken into consideration. Committee Chair, Jocelyn Davies AM (Plaid, South Wales East), expressed particular concerns about local health board budgets, and legislation's impact on local authorities. On November 18^th, NHS Wales Chief Executive, David Sissling, said he was “confident” local health boards would balance their budgets.
• Environment Minister, John Griffiths (Lab, Newport East), set up a Task and Finish Group on Marine Conservation Zones, which will report back in April 2013. Antoinette Sandbach AM (Con, North Wales) said the number of consultation responses highlighted the “huge concern at these proposals.” Llyr Huws Gruffydd AM (Plaid, North Wales) said he was pleased that the Welsh Government listened to concerns, but that the new approach “should have been adopted from the outset.”
• Health Minister, Lesley Griffiths (Lab, Wrexham), announced an extensive review of the Welsh Ambulance Service, following failures to meet performance and budget targets. Peter Black AM (Lib Dem, South Wales West) said that too many reviews had been undertaken on ambulance services and told the minister to “get a grip of this issue.”
• Welsh Labour and Plaid Cymru agreed a 2013-14 budget deal, which includes an extra £40million for apprenticeships over two years - possibly rising to £60million - and capital investment in a science park for Bangor & Aberystwyth Universities. Plaid Cymru will abstain from the budget vote in December.
• Paul Davies AM (Con, Preseli Pembrokeshire) called the deal “cheap” and said it “hails the return of an ineffective tag team.” Welsh Liberal Democrat leader, Kirsty Williams, said her party wouldn't support the budget due to failures to close a school funding gap with England.
• Education Minister, Leighton Andrews, defended his handling of 2011-12 GCSE English Language marking. He told the Assembly's Children & Young Persons Committee that had he changed grade boundaries before results were released, he would've been “crucified in the media....because I would have had little evidence to base that judgement.” He added that it was important, as a minister, to step in when there was a “fundamental issue” at stake.
• The first Assembly Bill since the 2011 referendum was granted Royal Assent on 12^th November. The National Assembly (Official Languages) Act was described by the First Minister – also Keeper of the Welsh Seal - as “the beginning of a new era for the governance of Wales.”
• Elin Jones AM (Plaid, Ceredigion), said advice documents from 2006 - proving Welsh Government ministers wanted to protect actors from smoking - contradicts current proposals to ease regulations on enclosed smoking for the film and television industry.
• Local Government & Communities Minister, Carl Sargeant (Lab, Alyn & Deeside), reassured the public that there were “record” levels of salt grit stored around Wales. He said, “this will ensure....we're self-sufficient throughout the winter period without the need to re-stock.”
• As part of Aberystwyth University's Welsh Politics Annual Lecture, Leanne Wood announced that Plaid Cymru would “crowd source” their manifesto and open their candidate selection process – including open primaries. She also announced her intention to stand for a constituency seat in 2016.
• Darren Millar AM (Con, Clwyd West) accused the chair of the National Clinical Forum of undermining an independent report on hospital reorganisations in north Wales. The report was initially critical of changes, but was rewritten by the chair and re-submitted as the forum's own work to include support for some Betsi Cadwaladr LHB reforms.
• Welsh unemployment fell by 5,000 to stand at 8.2% in the 3 months to September 2012, compared to 7.8% for the UK as a whole. Business Minister, Edwina Hart (Lab, Gower), said youth unemployment was still too high, and asked the UK Government to extend rate relief schemes into 2013.
• Local Government & Communities Minister, Carl Sargeant, relaunched the Welsh Government's flagship anti-poverty scheme - Communities First. Changes will include “clustering” Communities First areas together and he said he would to provide “robust monitoring” of the scheme, following concerns it wasn't providing value for money.
• Concerns were raised that Welsh local authorities aren't doing enough to combat human trafficking. A BBC Wales investigation found that a quarter of local authorities had no policies on the issue. Joyce Watson AM (Lab, Mid & West Wales), said that the National Assembly were taking human trafficking “extremely seriously”, pointing to the creation of an all-Wales human trafficking coordinator.
• Winston Roddick (Ind, North Wales), Christopher Salmon (Con, Dyfed-Powys), Ian Johnson (Ind, Gwent) and Alun Michael (Lab, South Wales), were elected Wales' first Police & Crime Commissioners on November 15^th. There were concerns raised about turnout levels, which averaged ~15% in Wales.
• The Global Entrepreneurship Monitoring report found that levels of business start-ups amongst Welsh youngsters (18-29 y.o.) trebled between 2002 and 2011 - from a rate of 3.4% to 9.7%. However, the report also suggested that business confidence in Wales was low, with only 17.7% of entrepreneurs questioned saying there were “good opportunities” in the next six months.
• The Silk Commission published the first of two reports on Welsh devolution on 19^th November, covering fiscal devolution. Recommendations include : devolution of taxes such as stamp duty, air passenger duty, landfill tax and aggregates levies; capital borrowing powers and the ability to vary income tax from 2020 – subject to a fair funding agreement and a referendum. Under the proposals the Assembly will be responsible for raising a quarter of its budget. Deputy Llywydd, David Melding (Con, South Wales Central), suggested these new powers would require more AMs.
• Leighton Andrews announced a study into the structure of of education service delivery, which will report back in March 2013. He told the Senedd that the possibility of local authorities losing control of school funding decisions – effectively abolishing Local Education Authorities - is being considered. Angela Burns AM (Con, Carms West & South Pembs) said it was an “admission of 13 years of failure.” The Welsh Local Government Association said it would be “undemocratic.”
• Plaid Cymru leader, Leanne Wood, called on the Welsh Government to take class action against energy companies and banks over “market rigging”, which could pave the way for Welsh consumers taking similar action.
• The UK Supreme Court ruled unanimously that the Local Government Byelaws Bill was within the Assembly's competence, after it was called-in by the UK Attorney General over concerns about Secretary of State powers. The Welsh Secretary said the judgement, “clarified the boundaries of devolution” while the First Minister said it proved “the Welsh Government was in the right.”
• The Assembly rejected a Liberal Democrat motion - by 26 votes to 27 - calling for the Ministerial Code of Conduct to be policed independently of the Welsh Government (nominally the First Minister) and the Assembly Commission.
• The Wales Audit Office reported that the Welsh NHS is likely to face budget shortfalls of £70million in the current financial year - possibly up to £130million. Darren Millar AM said the Welsh NHS faced “financial meltdown” without a big cash injection from the Welsh Government. Elin Jones AM called on more honesty and action from the Health Minister, whilst the Liberal Democrats expressed “grave concern.” NHS Chief, David Sissling, told the Assembly's Public Accounts Committee on 27^th November that there was a £50million reserve in place.
• 53% of waste collected by Welsh local authorities in now being recycled according to Welsh Government statistics. Environment Minister, John Griffiths, said he was “delighted” and wanted to “build on our recycling success so....we can meet our....targets of 70% recycling by 2025 and zero-waste by 2050.”
• The Welsh Government launched a consultation on its draft Control of Dogs Bill, which will include : bringing 1991 Dangerous Dogs Act measures into effect on private property, measures to force owners to register out-of-control dogs and making muzzles compulsory for dangerous breeds. The Welsh Government are also considering compulsory chipping of dogs, as proposed in an earlier consultation.
• Politicians from all parties reacted with dismay to the announcement of 600 “white collar” steel redundancies across south Wales, and 200 job losses at a pizza factory in Flintshire. The Welsh Government pledged to provide support to those affected.
• One person was killed as a result of serious flooding of the River Elwy in Denbighshire on November 27th, after days of torrential rain and gales caused problems across Wales and much of the rest of the UK. The First Minister promised an investigation after in emerged that flood defences on land – bought by a housing developer, but formerly owned by the Welsh Government – failed.
• Deputy Minister for Skills, Jeff Cuthbert (Lab, Caerphilly), unveiled a qualifications review for 14-19 year olds, which will retain GCSEs, improve literacy and numeracy skills within qualifications, set up a new arms-length qualifications agency for Wales and make changes to the Welsh Baccalaureate.
• The Assembly approved a motion calling to end stigmas surrounding mental health. Four AMs - from all parties - disclosed their own experiences with mental illness as part of an initiative to “Get Wales Talking.”
• Vaughan Gething AM (Lab, Cardiff South & Penarth) launched a report, backed by the Co-operative Group, calling for the establishment of a not-for-profit “Rail Cymru” to run the all-Wales rail franchise from 2018. He described it as a “once in a generation opportunity”.
• The Welsh Government made a bizarre attempt to pull a repeat episode of S4C soap opera, Pobol y Cwm, following complaints they were denied a “right to reply” after a character criticised their handling of bovine TB. Peter Black AM – a known opponent of a badger cull - said the Welsh Government had “no respect for free speech and artistic integrity.”

Projects announced in November 2012 include : A feasibility study into a new postgraduate centre at the Old College in Aberystwyth, a Liberal Democrat-backed mortgage guarantee scheme for up to 3,000 new homes, a £42.5million RNLI investment in Wales for modern lifeboats and a relaunch of the £30million Economic Growth Fund.

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Creating a Welsh legal jurisdiction

Following this week's Supreme Court judgement, the legal authority
of the Welsh Assembly is solidified. However, is a Welsh legal jurisdiction -
or subsequently, reserved powers - required to cement it once and for all?
(Pic : BBC Wales)

Earlier this year, First Minister Carwyn Jones and the Counsel General, Theodore Huckle QC, launched a wide-ranging consultation on the creation of a Welsh legal jurisdiction. An inquiry is currently being led by the Assembly's Legislative & Constitutional Affairs Committee, all the details are available here. It looks as if they are preparing to report back on it fairly soon.

Now, this is going to be one for the anoraks, but it's an issue that's come to the fore recently (indirectly) because of the Supreme Court case involving the Local Government Byelaws Bill (A farce that should never have happened). As you probably know, the Welsh Government quite comprehensively won that argument.

What is a legal jurisdiction?

The Welsh Government's consultation document has a wider discussion on this (p 4-9), but I'll simplify things.

In short, a legal jurisdiction is a defined territory within which laws, and designated legal authority, apply. This could sometimes go so far to include a separate courts and legal system. Scotland and Northern Ireland are "separate legal jurisdictions". Wales and England are part of the same legal jurisdiction.

A brief history of EnglandandWales

Until Henry VIII's Laws in Wales Acts (LIWA), Wales was a half-way house legally. Although the Welsh had been subject to English common law, it was administered slightly differently. Marcher Lords retained some powers – and were quite influential - whilst some aspects of the civil court system remained distinctively Welsh.

The LIWA formally absorbed the Welsh legal system into the English model, creating a single legal jurisdiction for England and Wales (nominally England).

It established the "traditional counties", the Welsh language was no longer a language of the courts and Welsh people were effectively granted "English subject" status. All this helped the Welsh gentry assimilate themselves into the English aristocracy, and the effects of these things are with us in the present.

The LIWA have been called an Act of Union between England and Wales, but that's open to interpretation. The LIWA had nothing to do with political union, just merging the legal systems. Wales was brought into the union by Norman annexation over several centuries and the Statute of Rhuddlan - not political union in the same way as Scotland (1707) and Ireland (1800).

Parts of the LIWA were repealed by the Welsh Language Act in 1993, which put Welsh on equal standing with English in public life, as well as other bits of legislation before this. Wales also became part of the double act of "England and Wales", after the Wales bit was rather silent for several hundred years.

In subsequent years, Government of Wales Acts in 1998 and 2006 have formalised Wales' position within the Union as a distinct national/territorial unit. Since 2006, a distinct body of Welsh law has also developed, and since 2011, the Assembly has had greater law-making powers in devolved areas. The Assembly also has powers over community safety, tribunals and the family court system.

So, Wales already meets some of the definitions of a legal jurisdiction. However, legally, Welsh laws are part of EnglandandWales statute books – they just apply only to Wales. This isn't the situation in the other devolved administrations, or the Crown Dependencies. Confused?

And now - partly because of this, partly because of politics (see Daran Hill's recent piece at Click on Wales) - we have Welsh laws, passed by a Welsh legislature, being entangled in the Supreme Court. If Westminster tried that with Alex Salmond, Scotland would already be independent.

I always put EnglandandWales in italics because it's not a nation - it's a "thing", and now it's becoming a constitutional tumour. Welsh devolution reaches yet another pointless, unnecessary roadblock.

A Welsh legal jurisdiction : What's the point?

On the surface, this sounds like a very technical issue, but if it did happen, it would have wide-ranging impact on the devolution settlement.

Advantages

Would a Welsh legal jurisdiction make it easier
to devolve areas like policing?
(Pic : BBC Wales)

"Welsh laws, made in Wales, for Wales" – Those of us who bothered to vote said yes to this in 2011, logically this is a conclusion to that process. The National Assembly would have an unquestioned authority to make laws in defined devolved areas, within Wales, to suit Welsh needs. There would be no justification for Westminster "hand holding" and it might dampen (but not eliminate) the threat of Welsh Bills being called in by Welsh Secretaries or the Attourney General.

Equal footing (legally) with Scotland – It's a bit more complicated than saying EnglandandWales would be over once and for all, but it would be a huge step in this direction. Each constituent nation (minus Cornwall) would be their own legal jurisdiction for perhaps the first time ever. The UK would finally be inching towards a more formal federal-lite model.

It would make devolving criminal justice easier – I believe one of the reasons things like policing haven't been devolved yet, might be the lack of a legal jurisdiction for Welsh police forces to work in. It would be too confusing to decide who has authority over what - the police would uphold EnglandandWales laws, whilst being accountable to the National Assembly. That would be yet another constitutional mess. A Welsh legal jurisdiction would clear things up, and make it easier for a Welsh legal system to function – if responsibilities were devolved.

The creation of a Welsh "Legal Society" – This might be dependant on devolving criminal justice. Having (potentially) a Welsh Inns of Court, Welsh Bar association and Welsh Judiciary would give us some standing in terms of the British court system(s). I think, personally, it would be the most significant development in Welsh "nation building" since 1997. It could lead to the creation of more opportunities for Welsh law/legal graduates closer to home. For example, if you had some major legal hurdle in Wales to overcome, eventually you would only – realistically - be able to use a Welsh legal firm when currently you could just as easily use one in Bristol as you would Bridgend. Legal cases under Welsh law would have to be heard in Welsh courts too.

Disadvantages

Would it be too complicated - and too expensive - to start
to separate into English and Welsh judiciaries?
(Pic : UK Department of Justice)

It wouldn't lead to better laws being drafted – This is a big point. It wouldn't improve law-making by the Assembly, and wouldn't lead to improvements in scrutinising legislation. One of the more disturbing issues raised by the Byelaws case, is that no AMs, or Welsh Government ministers, picked up on any possible conflict. They were proven right in the end, but they need to be more careful. Ultimately, this will come down to the colour of the governments we have either side of the M4, and the legislative drafting skills of AMs and Assembly Commission staff.

It's worthless without criminal justice powers – Saying it should be devolved is easier than doing it. This is one of the points raised by Theodore Huckle, but not necessarily because he supports the move. Having a legal jurisdiction without any corresponding legal "teeth" (policing, prisons, probation, courts) would be a hollow, symbolic gesture. Devolving the police would be relatively simple, but the courts system would be more difficult as there's (currently) little of the administrative apparatus in place.

Duplication of functions previously shared – The effort required to create a stripped-down legal jurisdiction (in which Welsh laws only apply to Wales) would likely be minimal. The cost of criminal justice powers, or even a Welsh judiciary (with or without justice powers) would be an issue. I imagine justice spending could simply added to the block grant. But as I (sort of) pointed out in The Big Independence Question, there are discrepancies between how much is actually spent on criminal justice in Wales (out turn expenditure) and how much is reported by the Treasury, or even the Welsh Government's own figures. In short, there appears to be far more reported to be spent on certain things in Wales than is actually spent. That could be the same across whole (UK) government departments.

Increased differences between Wales and the rest of the UK – Is the chance to make criminal law to serve Welsh needs worth it? Or is the current system working so well, that it needn't be interfered with? For those reasons, it could have both a positive, and negative, impact on the Welsh legal profession in particular. My Bristol and Bridgend argument above could easily be the other way around. There's nothing fundamentally wrong with the (English) legal system as it is. But as I pointed out, in terms of devolution, I think a single EnglandandWales legal jurisdiction is starting to become a nuisance. Despite my allegiance, I can see both points to the argument.

The impact on devolution

Westminster would retain significant authority over many matters,
but are a Welsh legal jurisdiction and reserved powers intertwined?
(Pic : The Guardian)

Firstly, it has to be pointed out that even with the creation of a Welsh legal jurisdiction, there would still be an overarching "UK" legal jurisdiction. The UK Supreme Court would still be the highest court, and in the case of Wales - unless the criminal justice powers came with it – policing, prisons and courts would (as I understand it) remain run on an EnglandandWales basis.

As the First Minister and Counsel General have suggested, it might lead to the requirement of a Welsh judge (and presumably Scottish and Northern Irish judges too) sitting alongside English judges on the Supreme Court. I don't see the point of a single Welsh judge sitting there - at the moment - until some of these issues are sorted out. It seems symbolic more than anything. They don't actually believe we're equals in the Union, do they?

For this to work effectively, Wales would almost certainly need a "reserved powers" model like Scotland. That means powers would be retained explicitly by Westminster, rather than powers explicitly devolved on a piecemeal basis - as currently.

It sounds like Lilliputian arguments over breaking eggs, but it would clear up where Wales and Westminster stand constitutionally. It would go some way to setting the Assembly's powers "in stone" and make the Assembly seem less subordinate in legislative terms.

The Assembly has a (perceived) status half-way between a county council and a devolved parliament like Scotland within EnglandandWales - where it's obvious the "Daddy" legislature for EnglandandWales is Westminster.

Both the First Minister and Ieuan Wyn Jones (Plaid, Ynys Mon) raised the issue recently, and steps towards reserved powers are now becoming a jog (Manon George & Alan Trench). If there are any problems with the Organ Donation Bill – I'm expecting there'll be a rough ride - those jogs will become sprints.
It remains to be seen whether a legal jurisdiction would be a pre-requisite for reserved powers or not - I think it would be. There's no point in reserved powers without a jurisdiction in which those powers would apply. However, complications resulting from the creation of an embryonic Welsh Judiciary might make the idea sound more appealing that it actually is.A Welsh legal jurisdiction would, in my opinion, mark a bigger "growing up" phase in Welsh devolution compared to the fiscal powers announced earlier this week.

In terms of the "devolution journey", the original Assembly (1999-2006) was Welsh politics in the primary school, 2006-2011 was GCSE. Welsh politics is currently studying A-Levels. This move (combined with reserved powers and fiscal devolution) would put Welsh politics in the first year of university. Federalism or Devo Max would be a university graduate - and that's where most people would get off. Confederalism would be Masters, whilst independence would be a constitutional and political PhD.

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Silk Commission - Part One : Finance & Devolution

On Monday, the Silk Commission published the conclusion of the first part of its remit, covering the devolution of fiscal powers. The full report and executive summary are available here.

There were a total of 33 recommendations, and I've summarised them below. I strongly recommend you read the executive summary at the very least yourselves though.

Devolution of tax powers

Will devolving Air Passenger Duty for long haul flights with Westminster
retaining the control over APD for short haul flights until they decide it meets
their own policy objectives....heh....heh....I'll just catch my breath...
result in a turnaround in....oh f**k it.
(Pic : Holidayextras.co.uk)

"Smaller yielding and local taxes" – It's recommended these are devolved. These include : Air Passenger Duty, Stamp Duty (on land), Aggregates Levy and Landfill Tax. These don't amount to much revenue (less than £200million), but could be used as tools to help Welsh Governments meet policy objectives. For Air Passenger Duty, it's recommended it should only apply to long-haul flights in the short-term, with Westminster deciding whether to go the whole hog as part of its own aviation policy. I think attracting long haul flights to Cardiff requires more than that. And the suggestion that Valley, Swansea, Pembrey or Harwarden could be developed into international airports off the back of changes in APD is hilarious.

Non Domestic (aka Business) Rates – NDR is currently "half-devolved". The Commission recommends devolution in line with Scottish arrangements. Parties have focused on changes here as a way to boost small businesses, while the Welsh Government carried out its own review earlier this year.

Corporation Tax – The Commission accepts it's "a powerful policy", but recommends against devolving corporation tax - unless it's devolved to Scotland and Northern Ireland.

Corporation Tax (within enterprise zones) – Subject to state aid requirements, the Commission believes that "enhanced capital allowances" should be allowed in Welsh enterprise zones.

Income Tax (Partial) – The headline-grabber. Current bands (20p, 40p, 50p) would be reduced by 10p respectively, and the Welsh Government will be able to either restore the status quo (raising each by 10p) or vary things. The Welsh Government would have the power to set each rate independently of one another. So, for example, they could set a basic rate of 19, a higher rate of 41 and an additional rate maintained at 50. The block grant would use "indexed deduction" to reflect the changes.

The impact of income tax changes is small. If the higher rate rose/fell by 1p for example, it's estimated to make a £16million difference either way. It's the basic rate which has the power as a potent tool, with a £180million impact either way.

I think the Assembly would be terrified of pursuing a different income tax regime from England, because that's been their mentality since day one. I wouldn't be surprised if they maintain the status quo, perhaps raising the basic rate to fund one off projects. Or, they could raise the higher rates to service borrowing when required, or lower them to encourage wealthier people to move to Wales.

94% of residents living in Wales, work in Wales, so I don't see what the report's point is about an "interconnected economy with England." The numbers out-commuting amount to 2.5% of the Welsh population. It looks to be the opposite to a large degree – the likes of Flintshire aside. They do, however, conclude that "modest" changes to income tax would have little impact on cross-border migration.

Why do people think these problems have never been encountered in human history? Have they ever been to a "eurodistrict"? Or US state border? Or better still, the Irish border? Or the Isle of Man?

It's also recommended that new taxes - within devolved areas - created by the UK Government should be considered "with a presumption in favour of" devolution to Wales.

Borrowing, "fair funding" & legislative requirements

"Toytown Treasury"? Or big shake up in economic reporting and powers?
(Pic : Buildingopinions.com)

Last month, both governments agreed that the Welsh Government should have borrowing powers, as long as they raise the income to service it. So the fact that borrowing powers were included wasn't a surprise.

Currently, the Welsh Government needs to plan capital spending over a three year period. It's a fixed pot of money set by Westminster. The report recommends that the Welsh Government be able to borrow directly from the UK Government – with agreed limitations – for both:

• Capital expenditure – Suggested up to £130million per year.
• Revenue expenditure shortfalls – Suggested up to £100million, with total debt limited to £500million (as currently).

The exact figures, limits and arrangements would need negotiation between the governments. The fact Wales has a significantly lower PFI debt than Scotland – just 1% of the UK's total - suggests Wales might be able to service higher levels of borrowing, perhaps up to £3billion in total.

"Fair funding" wasn't part of the commission's remit, but they suggest a new funding arrangement be agreed before moves on this – so does Carwyn Jones - as both governments will share responsibility over taxation. The Welsh Government might also be able to switch spending between capital and revenue spending – subject to agreement.

It's recommended a "Welsh Treasury" is established - effectively replacing the existing Finance Department – to oversee it. That seems like a cosmetic measure to give us the illusion that these are heavy duty powers. But there are indications that economic monitoring will be significantly beefed-up.

The Commission recommends that within this Parliamentary term (by 2015), a Wales Bill is passed to include all the measures listed, and including provisions for a referendum. All the tax and borrowing powers - except income tax powers - would come into force in April 2016.

The referendum

Sigh. Here we go again.
My bet is on a sub-30% turnout sometime in Spring 2018.
(Pic : BBC Wales)

It's proposed that the power to vary income tax be decided via referendum, once both governments agree to funding reform. Simon Thomas AM (Plaid, Mid & West Wales) let slip on Twitter that it was at the behest of Labour and Conservatives.

True Wales "warned" that tax powers would follow a successful 2011 referendum. They were right, but for the wrong reasons. In an ironic (and hilarious) twist, Welsh Labour have explicitly said several times that they're not seeking tax-varying powers. It's a logic grenade being hurled into the True Wales camp. Do they campaign against Westminster's mandate to decide these things? This was their doing.

Once again, a Welsh constitutional decision, which is very staid, dull and technical – but important - will rest on whether Labour want it or not. All indications are that the answer would be no.

Welsh Labour are,on the whole, pretty good at keeping in step with public opinion, but this might be an example of when they're not. Polls have consistently suggested a majority are in favour of tax-varying powers, whilst, more crucially, there's a suggestion people don't see the point in a referendum on the issue.

A referendum on whether the Assembly should have the power to vary in....your eyes are glazing over, aren't they? Richard Wyn Jones and Roger Scully put it better than me. A referendum would be easily won IMHO, but if we're going to have referenda, let's ask something significant and worth the effort.

The referendum won't happen this Assembly term, and income tax powers (which I said are pointless as, in practice, there'll be a fear of differing from England) won't come before 2020. Seven-to-eight years. In political terms, that's a glacial pace.

There might be a legitimate reason for the "delay" - to get the right state apparatus in place. However, while the Assembly tinkers with landfill taxes and air passenger duty for long-haul flights (that don't even serve our only major airport); Scotland might have seceded, on current trends Offa's Gap is likely to be wider than it is now and our tax base could be much, much smaller.

Conclusion : Pissing into the wind

Aggregates levy. Yeah.
(Pic : Telegraph)

The announcement confirmed the nuggets of info released over the last year or so. It's not exciting stuff, and I doubt it'll make much of an impact, but overall, it's another one of those "steps in the right direction."

The big - and perhaps only significant - positive is the devolution of business rates, which all parties support reforms to. That lever's also hefty in terms of the revenues involved. Borrowing powers could be used effectively too. Emphasis on the "could".

Labour get what they wanted : control of "minor taxes" like air passenger duty, capital borrowing powers, an acknowledgement that a "fair funding" agreement is needed and income tax powers are stalled.

I imagine the other parties will be happy too. Tories because they can propose tax cuts/"responsibility" in Assembly elections without making any real impact, Plaid and Lib Dems (mostly) for the same reasons as Labour. Though Plaid have said, perhaps unsurprisingly, that these recommendations "don't go far enough."

I would've preferred recommendations that put pressure on the Assembly. That means, in addition to business rates, borrowing (including bond issue) and the minor taxes : complete control of income tax, corporation tax - and perhaps vehicle excise, fuel duty and alcohol/tobacco duties too (because transport and health are [supposed to be] devolved).

And all to come into force in the next Assembly term - minus referendum - so we can go into the 2016 elections with manifestos promising policies that would make people sit up and take notice for a change.

I might be pre-judging Part II, but I hoped I would be saying Wales is reaching - in constitutional terms - a federal "endgame". If it's done well, that's something I could live with. This isn't that, and every time it's fudged, it pushes me further into the "screw the lot of you" camp by giving me the distinct impression that Wales isn't being taken seriously in either Cardiff Bay or Westminster.

I doubt I'm the only one pissed off with the same constitutional arguments flaring up again and again. It isn't exciting, it's dull and unnecessary. Gradualism might be appropriate for devolution as a whole, but the economy and fiscal responsibility scream out as areas where Wales - quite literally - can't afford to take mere "baby steps in the right direction".

We'll be back here again in the 2020s, probably deciding whether the Assembly gets full control of income tax, or other minutiae that should've been decided years earlier.

We'll be arguing over whether we have another referendum too. That could be because of our political class's innate lack of confidence in their own abilities, or even their own feelings of inadequacy about their mandate to govern Wales.

And, considering how joint powers over legislation works/worked so brilliantly, I wonder what glories await us with taxes.

We could have a nation state that treats federalism as a serious proposition, whilst being able to elect politicians at "state level" who can improve lives with meaningful, not half, or even quarter measures. If AMs want to play in a sandpit with their paper round money, and MPs approve of that, I think it's fair to treat both accordingly.

If anyone wanted reasons why the vast majority of people don't give a toss about Welsh politics - this is one of them. It's taken me just 20 months to go from wide-eyed optimist to cynic of all things "devolution".

Maybe those massed ranks are the wise ones, and it's never been a more tempting time to join them.

                        

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