- Census 2011 : What's stunting Welsh?
- Census 2011 : Losing our religion?
- Census 2011 : National Identity & Ethnicity
- Census 2011 : Disability, Carers & Health
- Census 2011 : Qualifications
- Census 2011 : Demographics I – How old is Wales?
- Census 2011 : Demographics II – Its meaning for Wales?
This is my penultimate look at the
2011 census. Considering that I originally only wanted to look at the Welsh language statistics, you can see how it's snowballed. The final post will look at Bridgend county and how it's
changed since 2001 - once I'm satisfied all the relevant ward-level
data has been released.
Today, I'm clumping together the "other" key data : home and car ownership, as well as living arrangements and relationship status.
Tenure
First up, it's home ownership and tenure. The number of households in Wales increased by around 94,000 between 2011 and 2001, and Cardiff alone by 19,000.
In terms of home ownership, 67.4% of Welsh households lived in a home that was either owned outright or owned via a mortgage in 2011 - a higher rate than England (63.4%). There's no real set pattern across Wales, with most local authorities having home ownership rates ranging from the mid 60s to low 70s. However, the percentage of homeowners in Cardiff is noticeably and significantly lower than the rest of Wales (59.1%).
Meanwhile, places like Flintshire (72.8%), Bridgend (72.4%), Vale of Glamorgan (72.2%) and Rhondda Cynon Taf (71%) have relatively high levels of home ownership.
The interesting figures here are in terms of how this changed. I'm not sure if the recession made an impact, but overall, the percentage of homeowners across Wales fell by 3.1% compared to 2001. Most of this isn't a fall in people owning homes outright – which rose slightly by 1% - it's households owning homes with mortgages (-4.1% nationally). Have they defaulted? Have they switched to renting?
Only Anglesey saw a rise in the percentage of homeowners (+0.8%). The rest of Wales – especially the south – has seen significant falls. Cardiff saw the sharpest fall at -10.1%. Only Carmarthenshire, Pembrokeshire and Powys saw falls of less than 1% on 2001.
As to where they've gone, the sector that's seen the biggest increase are private rentals. Cardiff saw a 10.2% rise in the number of households rented privately, while almost all South Walian local authorities saw rises above 5%. The slowest rise was 2.2% in Powys.
This could be because of the expansion of "buy to let" mortgages, as well as the impact of students and young adults, who don't have the funds to get onto the property ladder and choose to rent instead.
All this has had another impact – a fall in households renting from social landlords and local authorities. Many local authorities have handed over the running of social housing to housing authorities, but that doesn't appear to have made up for the shortfall in supply, with the exception of Cardiff – the only local authority to see a rise (+0.2%).
In Blaenau Gwent, the number of social rented households has fallen by 4.9%, in Wrexham it's fallen by 3.7%. These falls imply that a large chunk of social housing will have transferred to private landlords (not housing associations). If this trend continues, it'll have a massive impact on the supply of social housing and all that entails. None of this has been helped by things like the "bedroom tax".
Car Ownership & Access
In 2011, an extra 93,600 Welsh households had access to a car compared to 2001. It's best to deal with households with no car access first.
The general pattern is rural areas having greater car access than urban areas. Most of the authorities with high percentages of households without car access are in the urban south – Merthyr (35.2%), Blaenau Gwent (35.1%), RCT (31.5%).
Cardiff also has a surprisingly high percentage – 30.5%. People might criticise it, but when you factor in the number of local train stations, Cardiff Bus and the frequency of those services, Cardiff probably has the best public transport network in Wales. So there's perhaps little reason for a car in the first place.
In the valleys though, it could come down to not being able to afford to run a car, fewer numbers of people being able to drive, or needing to drive – think about it. In rural areas, higher levels of car ownership and access would reflect it as a necessity due to poor public transport.
In terms of how it's changed since 2001 though, every local authority saw a fall in the percentage of households with no access to a car. Like other statistics, the biggest falls have been in the more deprived areas.
Blaenau
Gwent saw a 6.1% fall, and Merthyr a 5.5% fall. Only Cardiff saw a
negligible fall – 0.7% - probably because of good public transport
as mentioned earlier.
It's hard to tell if this next point counts as "good news". Households with access to just one car also fell, but maybe not for the reason you're thinking. Households with access to two cars or more have increased substantially across Wales – 5.6% nationally – but with no real set pattern.
As to why this happened, there are several possible explanations : cars are cheaper (but certainly not cheaper to run), more adult children living at home, more employers demanding it due to flexible working hours, and an expansion of home-based businesses with small fleets of vehicles required (building contractors etc).
Relationship Status & Living Arrangements
In 2011 there were just over 2.5million people aged 16 or over in Wales. 46.6% said they were married, 33.5% single, 7.9% widowed and 11.9% either divorced or separated. These figures weren't that different from EnglandandWales as a whole, though Wales has slightly fewer single people and slightly more divorced and widowed people.
Things have changed quite substantially. In 2001, in all but two local authorities – Cardiff & Ceredigion - the majority (50%+) of people aged 16 or over were married. In 2011, that was the case in just four local authorities – Flintshire (50.3%), Powys (51.1%), Pembrokeshire (50.4%) and Monmouthshire (54.1%).
Between 2001 and 2011, the married population in Wales fell by 6.9%, with the highest falls of 8%+ in the M4 corridor and Blaenau Gwent. The divorcee population increased by 3.3% nationally over the same time, and separated (still legally married) by 0.6%, with no real pattern anywhere in Wales.
So the falls in married people don't simply come down to a rise in divorces – though divorces would've made an impact. I think the reason happened is because of falls in the number of people getting married in the first place.
There's a pronounced trend for increased singleness in urban parts of south Wales, as well as Gwynedd and Ceredigion. The change in the number of singles varies wildly though, with rural parts of Wales and north east Wales not experiencing anywhere near the same shift as somewhere like Cardiff, where there's been an increase of 6.1% in the single population.
In places like Cardiff and Ceredigion too, which have larger young adult populations – presumably students – this is probably the effect of an influx of young singles dragging the married rate downwards.
A word of caution though. "Single" - as defined in the census - probably doesn't explicitly mean "not in a relationship", it means not married or in a civil partnership.
Sexual Orientation & Same Sex Couples
I can't remember whether sexual orientation
questions were included, and that's reflected by a lack of census
data. The ONS does produce what it calls "experimental"
figures on sexual orientation. In 2011-12 :
Today, I'm clumping together the "other" key data : home and car ownership, as well as living arrangements and relationship status.
Tenure
First up, it's home ownership and tenure. The number of households in Wales increased by around 94,000 between 2011 and 2001, and Cardiff alone by 19,000.
In terms of home ownership, 67.4% of Welsh households lived in a home that was either owned outright or owned via a mortgage in 2011 - a higher rate than England (63.4%). There's no real set pattern across Wales, with most local authorities having home ownership rates ranging from the mid 60s to low 70s. However, the percentage of homeowners in Cardiff is noticeably and significantly lower than the rest of Wales (59.1%).
 |
| % of homes owned outright or via mortgage in 2011 (Click to enlarge) |
 |
| Change in % of householes where homes are owned 2001-2011 (Click to enlarge) |
Meanwhile, places like Flintshire (72.8%), Bridgend (72.4%), Vale of Glamorgan (72.2%) and Rhondda Cynon Taf (71%) have relatively high levels of home ownership.
The interesting figures here are in terms of how this changed. I'm not sure if the recession made an impact, but overall, the percentage of homeowners across Wales fell by 3.1% compared to 2001. Most of this isn't a fall in people owning homes outright – which rose slightly by 1% - it's households owning homes with mortgages (-4.1% nationally). Have they defaulted? Have they switched to renting?
Only Anglesey saw a rise in the percentage of homeowners (+0.8%). The rest of Wales – especially the south – has seen significant falls. Cardiff saw the sharpest fall at -10.1%. Only Carmarthenshire, Pembrokeshire and Powys saw falls of less than 1% on 2001.
 |
| Change in % of households renting from private landlords 2001-2011 (Click to enlarge) |
 |
| Change in % of households renting from local authorities and social landlords 2001-2011 (Click to enlarge) |
As to where they've gone, the sector that's seen the biggest increase are private rentals. Cardiff saw a 10.2% rise in the number of households rented privately, while almost all South Walian local authorities saw rises above 5%. The slowest rise was 2.2% in Powys.
This could be because of the expansion of "buy to let" mortgages, as well as the impact of students and young adults, who don't have the funds to get onto the property ladder and choose to rent instead.
All this has had another impact – a fall in households renting from social landlords and local authorities. Many local authorities have handed over the running of social housing to housing authorities, but that doesn't appear to have made up for the shortfall in supply, with the exception of Cardiff – the only local authority to see a rise (+0.2%).
In Blaenau Gwent, the number of social rented households has fallen by 4.9%, in Wrexham it's fallen by 3.7%. These falls imply that a large chunk of social housing will have transferred to private landlords (not housing associations). If this trend continues, it'll have a massive impact on the supply of social housing and all that entails. None of this has been helped by things like the "bedroom tax".
Car Ownership & Access
In 2011, an extra 93,600 Welsh households had access to a car compared to 2001. It's best to deal with households with no car access first.
 |
| % of households with no access to a car (Click to enlarge) |
 |
| Change in % of households with no access to a car 2001-2011 (Click to enlarge) |
The general pattern is rural areas having greater car access than urban areas. Most of the authorities with high percentages of households without car access are in the urban south – Merthyr (35.2%), Blaenau Gwent (35.1%), RCT (31.5%).
Cardiff also has a surprisingly high percentage – 30.5%. People might criticise it, but when you factor in the number of local train stations, Cardiff Bus and the frequency of those services, Cardiff probably has the best public transport network in Wales. So there's perhaps little reason for a car in the first place.
In the valleys though, it could come down to not being able to afford to run a car, fewer numbers of people being able to drive, or needing to drive – think about it. In rural areas, higher levels of car ownership and access would reflect it as a necessity due to poor public transport.
In terms of how it's changed since 2001 though, every local authority saw a fall in the percentage of households with no access to a car. Like other statistics, the biggest falls have been in the more deprived areas.
 |
| Change in % of households with access to two cars or more 2001-2011 (Click to enlarge) |
It's hard to tell if this next point counts as "good news". Households with access to just one car also fell, but maybe not for the reason you're thinking. Households with access to two cars or more have increased substantially across Wales – 5.6% nationally – but with no real set pattern.
As to why this happened, there are several possible explanations : cars are cheaper (but certainly not cheaper to run), more adult children living at home, more employers demanding it due to flexible working hours, and an expansion of home-based businesses with small fleets of vehicles required (building contractors etc).
Relationship Status & Living Arrangements
In 2011 there were just over 2.5million people aged 16 or over in Wales. 46.6% said they were married, 33.5% single, 7.9% widowed and 11.9% either divorced or separated. These figures weren't that different from EnglandandWales as a whole, though Wales has slightly fewer single people and slightly more divorced and widowed people.
 |
| % of over 16s who were married in 2011 (Click to enlarge) |
 |
| Change in % of resident over 16s who are married 2001-2011 (Click to enlarge) |
Things have changed quite substantially. In 2001, in all but two local authorities – Cardiff & Ceredigion - the majority (50%+) of people aged 16 or over were married. In 2011, that was the case in just four local authorities – Flintshire (50.3%), Powys (51.1%), Pembrokeshire (50.4%) and Monmouthshire (54.1%).
Between 2001 and 2011, the married population in Wales fell by 6.9%, with the highest falls of 8%+ in the M4 corridor and Blaenau Gwent. The divorcee population increased by 3.3% nationally over the same time, and separated (still legally married) by 0.6%, with no real pattern anywhere in Wales.
So the falls in married people don't simply come down to a rise in divorces – though divorces would've made an impact. I think the reason happened is because of falls in the number of people getting married in the first place.
 |
| Change in % of over 16s who are single/not married 2001-2011 (Click to enlarge) |
There's a pronounced trend for increased singleness in urban parts of south Wales, as well as Gwynedd and Ceredigion. The change in the number of singles varies wildly though, with rural parts of Wales and north east Wales not experiencing anywhere near the same shift as somewhere like Cardiff, where there's been an increase of 6.1% in the single population.
In places like Cardiff and Ceredigion too, which have larger young adult populations – presumably students – this is probably the effect of an influx of young singles dragging the married rate downwards.
A word of caution though. "Single" - as defined in the census - probably doesn't explicitly mean "not in a relationship", it means not married or in a civil partnership.
Sexual Orientation & Same Sex Couples
 |
| The LGBT community in Wales appears to be rather small, and same sex civil partnerships relatively few. (Pic : ITV Wales) |
- 94.8% of the Welsh population aged 16 or over described themselves as heterosexual
- 1% as homosexual (~25,000 people)
- 0.4% bisexual (~10,000 people)
- 0.3% "other" (~7,500 people). I'm not sure what "other" is, but I presume asexuals, pansexuals and the bi-curious.
- 3.6% refused to answer or gave no response.
Looking at the overall
figures – which haven't changed much on the previous year - I'd say
Wales has a slightly below-average LGBT community compared to the UK, or
placed somewhere "in the middle". There's no way
to tell how spread out those communities are, but I'd guess most
LGBTs - like any minority in Wales - live in and around the bigger
settlements.
Same sex civil partnerships were recorded in the census. Civil partnerships developed between the two censuses, so there's no comparison with 2001.
Nationally, just 0.2% of the population over 16 were in same sex civil partnerships in 2011 – that works out at around 5,000 individuals. There wasn't much variation between local authorities, most recorded 0.1% or 0.2%. It appears Newport is the civil partnership capital of Wales, with 0.4% of the population in one, followed by Torfaen (0.3%).
What can we take from this?
Wales is becoming a nation of renters – The slump in mortgage-owned homes could, as I said, be the result of the recession and defaults. However, it could also be that people are increasingly priced out of the housing market and turning to renting instead.
Did private landlords disproportionately benefit from the Blair-Brown "housing boom"? – Related to the above, the figures suggest private landlords have been the fastest growing group of home-owners in Wales since 2011.
That could be down to an expansion of "buy to let"
mortgages, with cheaper homes in Wales being easy pickings for those
looking to start off in the letting business. Also, some parts of
Wales have a captive rental market due to the expansion of
universities.
The trouble is, we still place quite a lot on home ownership as a step towards financial security. A large chunk of Wales are being denied that if long-term rentals don't provide the same sort of security, or if people aren't able to get on the property ladder in the first place. The Welsh Government recently announced a white paper on reforms to renting.
We have greater access to cars and own more of them – This is neither really a good thing or a bad thing. Sure, more deprived parts of Wales are arguably more mobile than in 2001, which should improve job prospects. But that means nothing if the jobs they're going to are low-paid.
The number of cars in households also has a big environmental and (possible) health impact. It emphasises the task ahead trying to get people onto public transport, as private transport might be seen as a necessity in some parts of Wales. The Assembly undertook an inquiry into integrated public transport recently.
Perhaps for the first time, a majority of Welsh adults are unmarried – One of the more dramatic shifts compared to 2001 is the drop in the number of local authorities where more than half their residents are married.
Again, this doesn't mean that adults aren't "settling down" - as it hints at people not getting married even if they're in a committed relationship. I don't think there's anything wrong with that, really. It's a noticeable trend in other parts of the developed world.
It would be interesting to see an age breakdown of these figures. Relationships and marriages aren't "expected" by a certain age as they once were, and people – especially my age - have more complicated expectations with regard potential partners than 30-40 years ago.
When you factor in divorce and separation rates, people are perhaps more cynical about long-term relationships too and genuinely prefer to remain single or in more casual relationships.
Though yes, on the extremes you have men wearing fedora hats and neckbeards going on about being a "nice guy", whilst at the same time being misogynistic/racist/homophobic (delete as required). And women for whom a walking orgasm, that doesn't talk and only listens, and could grant them anything they desire wouldn't be good enough - even if they don't offer much themselves.
There aren't many gays in the village – Unless a large chunk of that 3.8% who didn't answer the ONS survey are in the closet, the Welsh LGBT community is very small indeed. There's a stereotype that Wales has a disproportionate number of gay men in particular. However, I think it's that Wales has a disproportionate number of "high profile" LGBTs that skewers people's perceptions somewhat. The numbers also highlight the need to protect minority groups like LGBTs so they don't get "squashed". However, sexual orientation shouldn't matter anymore. It's a shame it still matters to some.
Same sex civil partnerships were recorded in the census. Civil partnerships developed between the two censuses, so there's no comparison with 2001.
Nationally, just 0.2% of the population over 16 were in same sex civil partnerships in 2011 – that works out at around 5,000 individuals. There wasn't much variation between local authorities, most recorded 0.1% or 0.2%. It appears Newport is the civil partnership capital of Wales, with 0.4% of the population in one, followed by Torfaen (0.3%).
What can we take from this?
Wales is becoming a nation of renters – The slump in mortgage-owned homes could, as I said, be the result of the recession and defaults. However, it could also be that people are increasingly priced out of the housing market and turning to renting instead.
Did private landlords disproportionately benefit from the Blair-Brown "housing boom"? – Related to the above, the figures suggest private landlords have been the fastest growing group of home-owners in Wales since 2011.
 |
| Has easy access to "buy to let" mortgages led to the explosion of private rental properties since the turn of the millennium? (Pic : The Guardian) |
The trouble is, we still place quite a lot on home ownership as a step towards financial security. A large chunk of Wales are being denied that if long-term rentals don't provide the same sort of security, or if people aren't able to get on the property ladder in the first place. The Welsh Government recently announced a white paper on reforms to renting.
We have greater access to cars and own more of them – This is neither really a good thing or a bad thing. Sure, more deprived parts of Wales are arguably more mobile than in 2001, which should improve job prospects. But that means nothing if the jobs they're going to are low-paid.
The number of cars in households also has a big environmental and (possible) health impact. It emphasises the task ahead trying to get people onto public transport, as private transport might be seen as a necessity in some parts of Wales. The Assembly undertook an inquiry into integrated public transport recently.
Perhaps for the first time, a majority of Welsh adults are unmarried – One of the more dramatic shifts compared to 2001 is the drop in the number of local authorities where more than half their residents are married.
Again, this doesn't mean that adults aren't "settling down" - as it hints at people not getting married even if they're in a committed relationship. I don't think there's anything wrong with that, really. It's a noticeable trend in other parts of the developed world.
It would be interesting to see an age breakdown of these figures. Relationships and marriages aren't "expected" by a certain age as they once were, and people – especially my age - have more complicated expectations with regard potential partners than 30-40 years ago.
When you factor in divorce and separation rates, people are perhaps more cynical about long-term relationships too and genuinely prefer to remain single or in more casual relationships.
Though yes, on the extremes you have men wearing fedora hats and neckbeards going on about being a "nice guy", whilst at the same time being misogynistic/racist/homophobic (delete as required). And women for whom a walking orgasm, that doesn't talk and only listens, and could grant them anything they desire wouldn't be good enough - even if they don't offer much themselves.
There aren't many gays in the village – Unless a large chunk of that 3.8% who didn't answer the ONS survey are in the closet, the Welsh LGBT community is very small indeed. There's a stereotype that Wales has a disproportionate number of gay men in particular. However, I think it's that Wales has a disproportionate number of "high profile" LGBTs that skewers people's perceptions somewhat. The numbers also highlight the need to protect minority groups like LGBTs so they don't get "squashed". However, sexual orientation shouldn't matter anymore. It's a shame it still matters to some.
Also remember that the census is filled in by the head of the household, which means that you probably are going to have that resulting an under reporting of the number of LGBT people in Wales, and there are going to be some of the 94.8% who don't trust the confidentiality of the census and so under report. Plus you have migration of LGBT people to the big cities in England.
ReplyDeleteThanks, Cibwr.
ReplyDeleteThe sexual orientation figures are based off a separate ONS survey taken around the same time, as I don't think there were any sexual orientation questions in the 2011 census. It's based off about 180,000 responses, and they're confident the figures are +/- 0.3
Based on comparisons with somewhere like NE England and Scotland, I'd say the figures are probably accurate, though it would be interesting to see where LGBTs are migrating to both within and outside Wales.