The Beast is Back - Welsh Government Progress Report 2013

                            

Yesterday, the First Minister published the second annual progress report (available here in pdf), updating the Assembly and the rest of us on progress made in delivering Welsh Labour's Programme for Government.

The report itself, and its annexes, have both been slimmed down significantly and the report itself is surprisingly readable.

It's still "The Beast" when you factor in all the indicators. Therefore, I can still make Iron Maiden references, though the fact it isn't 666 pages like last year makes Carwyn something of a spoil sport.

The "excitement" pretty much ends there, as this is a post for the anoraks (and lazy Assembly staffers). Don't worry about me though, posts like this don't take as long as they might seem as it's basically just listing stuff.

As I said last year, the commitment to transparency is commendable, and I don't really question the First Minister's commitment to "delivery" either. Progress reports like these are, broadly speaking, a good idea. It's just the means of delivery that's the issue. More from me on that next week.

Reaction

As you can imagine, the First Minister was keen to emphasise his government's record at "standing up for Wales during difficult times", whilst acknowledging that other challenges lie ahead – most notably in the health service, some aspects of education and local government (once the cuts start to bite properly).

Opposition politicians were quick to point that the report is a "fig leaf", "self-congratulatory" and giving the mistaken impression that "all is well".

Both sides have a point. If Labour really want their record in goverment to be judged on things like water resource zone targets or new PCSOs, they're within their rights to do so I suppose. Just don't expect anyone to get too excited about that. People do notice things like class sizes, waiting lists and the general health of the economy though. There are also hardly any targets indicated whatsoever.

Like last year, it's up to you if things have gotten better or not. However, many areas have improved, albeit by small amounts in general. The indicators themselves though are fairly unambitious on the whole. Many have barely anything to do with the Welsh Government at all.

"Flat lining" is the general impression given by the report, with one or two exceptions in both directions.

Methodology

In a change from last year - and in order to slim down the length of the post - I'm only counting indicators that have "changed significantly" one way or another. The definition of "changed significantly" is subjective (in general +/- 1% change or its equivalent). So I suggest if you're really, really interested in this, you go through the report, annexes or indicators and decide for yourselves.

Unless stated otherwise, I'm comparing figures to the previous year (2011-12).

• Once again, some indicators continue to only have one column of statistics to base delivery off (like this), or don't have any figures at all.
• Some of the indicators are outdated – the data for attainment for 19 year olds dates from 2007 and 2008.
• Some figures are exactly the same as those provided last year. Compare this post with last year's post and you'll see it for yourselves (if you can be bothered).
• It appears many indicators have been subtly changed, I don't think that results in fair comparisons as it's effectively "changing the goal posts". For example, renewable energy production was counted in terms of kWh in 2012, this year it's as a percentage of total energy produced. I don't think it's that much of a problem in the grand scheme of things, but it's a concern.

Now, on to the main event....

Getting Better

Culture & Heritage

• Visits to the National Museum rose by 34,000 on 2011.
• The number of educational visits to CADW sites rose by ~13,300 on 2011.
• The number of free swims taken up by the over 60s rose by ~60,000 on 2011.
• 60.6% of conservation and maintenance work was completed on scheduled monuments by Q4 2012, compared to 52.2% in 2011.
• An extra 8 libraries were refurbished between 2011 and 2012, bringing the total number to 87.

Economy & Transport

• The percentage of the adult workforce qualified to the equivalent of 2 A-levels rose by 2% to 54% between 2012 and 2011.
• The percentage of the adult workforce with a degree-level qualification rose by 1% to 33% over the same period.
• The percentage of 19-24 y.o. NEETS fell from 22.9% in 2010 to 22.1% in 2011.
• The number of visits to CADW sites, local and national museums rose by 800,000 between 2010 and 2011.
• The number of rail journeys in Wales rose by 1.3million between 2009 and 2010 to over 27.2million.
• The percentage of households with access to next generation broadband rose by 6% to 37% in 2012, however this remains the lowest rate of the Home Nations.
• Jobs Growth Wales exceeded its target of 4,000 job opportunities - creating 6,000 - and are "on course" to meet targets of Skills Growth Wales II.
• The number of apprenticeships offered via Young Recruits rose by 165 between 2011 and 2012.
• Apprenticeship success rates rose by 3% between 2011 and 2010.
• 2G mobile coverage now covers 99.2% of Wales in 2011, compared to 84% in 2010.

Education & Schools

• The percentage of pupils attaining 5 A*-C GCSEs rose by 1.1% on 2011 (to 51.1%) - a sharper rise than England (0.4%), but still lagging behind overall (59.4%).
• The gap in attainment for those in receipt of free school meals as KS4 (GCSE) closed by 1.6% between 2010 and 2011 to stand at a 33.2% points difference.
• Post-16 "staying on" rates rose by 1.2% between 2010 and 2011 to 80.1%, but lag behind England overall.
• The number of further education courses successfully completed rate rose by 1% to 82% in 2011 compared to 2010.

Environment

• The percentage of electricity generated from renewables rose from 5% in 2010 to 7.9% in 2011.
• The amount of gas used by Welsh households fell by more than 1,000 kWh between 2010 and 2011, while the amount of electricity fell by 70 hWh (could be a bad thing when you factor in fuel poverty).
• The percentage of municipal waste recycled rose by 4.9% to 48.5% of all waste – the highest recycling rate of the Home Nations.
• The percentage of water resource zones meeting target headroom requirements rose to 96% from 88% between 2010 and 2011.
• The percentage of rivers, lakes and coastlines achieving a "good" ecological status rose by 2.7% between 2011 and 2012.
• The area of woodland to be managed to UK Forest Standard rose by 23,000 hectares between 2012 and 2011, with significant rises since 2009.
• 28 more Community Flood Plans were created between 2011 and 2012.
• The percentage of journeys to work under 5 miles made by foot or by cycle rose by 6% on 2007 to 26% in 2010.

Equality, Housing, Communities & Poverty

• KS2 and KS4 attainment rates for special needs pupils both improved between 2010 and 2011.
• The percentage of ethnic minority households accepted as homeless fell from 8.8% in 2010 to 6.6% in 2011 (hinting at falling homelessness).
• There were 285 fewer incidents of "hate crimes" in 2011 compared to 2010.
• There were 7 more authorised gypsy & traveller sites in 2012 compared to 2011.
• The percentage of assessed dwellings containing at least one "Category 1" hazard fell by 7% between 2010 and 2011.
• The percentage of homeless families that include dependant children fell from 43% in 2010 to 41% in 2011.
• 21,000 households had received help or advice about reducing energy bills as part of the NEST scheme.
• Credit union memberships rose by ~5,500 between 2011 and 2012 to just under 60,000 members.
• The number of statutory plans produced by local authorities has fallen from 88 in Q4 2011 to 31 in Q4 2012, reducing bureaucracy.
• The net benefit of efficiency savings in local authorities from joint e-procurement (xchangewales) rose from £14.8m in 2011 to £18.5m in 2012.
• The number of adults receiving direct payments rose to 3,200 in 2011 from 2,730 in 2010.
• The percentage of children seen alone by social workers rose from 29.5% in 2010 to 33% in 2011.
• The percentage of looked-after children experiencing more than once change of school in a year fell by 2% between 2010 and 2011 to 12.2%.

Health

• The mortality rate for circulatory diseases (under 75s) fell to 68 per 100,000 from 71 per 100,000 people in 2011.
• The number of hospital acquired infections remains generally lower in 2012 and 2013 than previous years, and significantly lower than pre-2009.
• The number of emergency admissions for chronic conditions is around 800-1,000 per month lower in 2012 compared to 2011.
• The percentage of GP practices reviewing their palliative care arrangements increased by 5% between 2010 and 2011 to 90.9% of practices.
• The percentage of surgeries offering online repeat prescriptions rose from 18% in 2012 to 43% in 2013.
• Teenage conceptions per 1,000 people fell from 36.9 in 2010 to 34.2 in 2011.
• The percentage of children immunised against MMR rose by 2% between 2010 and 2011 to 93% overall, compared to 80% in 2003.
• Seasonal uptake of flu vaccines for the over 65s rose between 2010 and 2011 but remain significantly lower than the rest of the UK.
• The percentage of delayed transfers of care (for social care reasons) is generally lower in 2012 than in 2011.

Rural Affairs

• Household incomes in rural areas remain marginally higher at 100.9% of the Welsh average.
• The percentage of people employed in rural areas remains higher than the combined rural-urban average at 69.7% in 2012 – a rise of 1% on 2011.
• The percentage of direct payments made to farmers by the end of December each year rose from 88% in 2011 to 97% in 2012 – compared to 75% in 2007.
• The number of passengers using the BwcaBus community transport service rose by at least 10,500 between 2011 and 2012 to 23,800 passengers in total.

Safety

• Drug-related deaths fell by 15 between 2010 and 2011 to 137 deaths.
• Alcohol-related deaths fell by 35 over the same period to 459 deaths.
• The overall crime rate fell to 63 per 1,000 people in 2011 compared to 68 in 2010 and 102 in 2003.
• The percentage of people aged 16-59 taking Class A drugs fell to 2% in 2011, from 2.3% in 2010 and 2.9% in 2009.
• The number of first-time entrants into the youth justice system in Wales fell by over 600 between 2010 and 2011.
• The percentage of successful prosecutions for violence against women rose from 71.8% in 2010 to 74.8% in 2011.
• The number of fires attended per 10,000 population fell from 67.8 in 2010 to 53.6 in 2011.
• Road casualties fell by 213 between 2011 and 2012, with a 185 fall in serious casualties and a 28 fall in the number of fatalities.
• The number of people supported by the All Wales Domestic Abuse and Sexual Violence Helpline rose to more than 3,100 in 2012, compared to just over 1,000 in 2011.
• In 2012, 433 of the pledged extra 500 PCSOs had been recruited, compared to 47 in 2011.
• The number of people with substance misuse problems benefiting from the European Social Fund peer-mentoring rose by 331 between 2011 and 2012.
• Access to suitable custodial accommodation for young people rose by 2.9% between 2011 and 2012.

Getting Worse

Culture & Heritage

• The number of children participating in arts activities fell by 1% on 2011 to 79%.
• The number of visits to CADW monuments fell by 68,000 on 2011.
• The number of free swims taken up by under 16s fell by ~61,000 on 2011.

Economy & Transport

• The percentage of 16.-18 y.o NEETS in Wales rose from 11.5% in 2011 to 12.1% in 2012.
• The value of tourism spend at CADW sites fell by ~£260,000 between 2011 and 2012.
• The value of contract opportunities offered through Sell2Wales fell by ~£600,000 between 2011 and 2012 (could be seen as a positive if contracts are more attainable for smaller companies).
• The number of beneficiaries of ReAct fell by more than 1,000 between 2012 and 2011 (possibly due to economic improvement).
• The number of employees benefiting from the Wales Union Learning Fund fell by ~1,800 between 2012 and 2011.
• The number of dangerous trunk road defects rose by 161 in Q4 2012 compared to Q4 2011.

Education & Schools

• The number of further education institutions fell to 14 in 2011 (due to mergers) and is likely to be even less now. It's up to you if this is a failure or not, but it's a "negative".
• The percentage of higher education institutions with incomes higher than the UK mean fell from 45% to 40% in 2010.

Environment

• Levels of greenhouse gas emissions rose by ~3.5million tonnes between 2009 and 2010.
• The number of properties benefiting from enhanced flood or coastal protection fell by ~500 between 2011 and 2012.

Equality, Housing, Communities & Poverty

• The gap in attainment between girls and boys widened at KS4 between 2010 and 2011.
• Incidents of sexual crimes rose by 70 between 2011 and 2010.
• Men continue to have significantly higher employment rates (71.4%) than women (63.3%).
• The number of homeless families with children living in bed and breakfast accommodation rose from 10 in 2010 to 30 in 2011.
• The percentage of children living in combined material deprivation rose from 16% to 20% in 2009.
• The percentage of households living in fuel poverty rose to 30% in 2012, from 26% in 2010.
• The percentage of people attending arts schemes from under-represented groups fell by 0.4% between 2011-2012 and 1.5% since 2010.
• The percentage of 19 year olds in education or training when leaving care fell from 48.1% in 2010 to 47.3% in 2011.

Health

• There were 3,000 extra emergency admissions to hospital in 2011 compared to 2010.
• The gap in life expectancy between the most and least deprived hasn't improved between 2008 and 2009.
• The percentage of patients waiting less than 4 hours in accident and emergency departments was 85.9% in April 2013, compared to 88.6% in April 2012 and 92.1% in April 2007.
• 56.1% of ambulances met the 8 minute category A response target in December 2012, compared to 64.8% in December 2011.
• The number of cancelled operations was generally higher in 2012 compared to 2011, but much lower than 2002-2003.
• The percentage adults who are overweight or obese rose by 1.2% to 58.5% of the population in 2012.
• 97.4% of non-urgent cancer patients started treatment within 31 days in Q1 2013, compared to 99% in 2011.
• 83.6% of urgent cancer patients started treatment within 62 days in Q1 2013 compared to 90.3% in Q4 2011.
• The number of deceased organ donors fell from 67 to 52 between 2011 and 2012.
• 91.4% of patients waited less than 26 weeks for referral to treatment in March 2013, compared to 94% in March 2012.

Rural Affairs

• Only 6% of rural households had access to next generation broadband in 2012.
• The number of herds losing their bovine TB free status increased on 2011 in 2012.

Safety

• Recorded crime at railway stations rose from 1,054 incidents in 2011 to 1,114 incidents in 2012.
• Access to suitable community sentence accommodation for young people fell by 0.5% in 2012.
• The percentage change in average hours young offenders spent in suitable education, training or work-based activity once in a custodial or community sentence fell from 17.6% in 2011 to 11.7% in 2012.

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