Welsh Government Annual Report 2012 - "The Beast"

The first Welsh Government Annual Report is
a hefty document, weighing in at more than 600 pages.
"Ooooooh, nasty!"
(Pic : Via Tumblr)

Many are called, but few are chosen.

Last week, the First Minister unleashed his secret weapon – what will now be known as "The Beast". An annual report that would reduce even the most hardened political anorak to despair.

I believe Carwyn's an Iron Maiden fan. Recently, Bruce Dickinson has set up an aviation company at St Athan. I don't know if Carwyn was inspired by this, but The Beast weighs in at 666 pages. Respect for that.

However, this isn't an annual report, it's a challenge (c/o Geraint Pillock).

It's something that should be presented to the Assembly with the Game of Thrones theme tune blasting out and a fog machine. It's like one of those rooms out of cult kids TV show "Knightmare", where they superimpose a giant cat on the floor, or something.

Imagine that, but with the entire Welsh Government standing there mooning you on the steps of Cathays Park. That's what this is. This is the Welsh cabinet pissing in your face through the monitor. A bit of fun before they go off on their holibobs.

"Well you wanted to see everything, yur it is! Nyeahahahahahahahaha! Wayheeeey!" *arse slap* *arse slap* One of them would probably do the whole spread cheek thing as well. A little bit of sick has just come up in my throat.

As a scientist, I'm used to working for hours, days, weeks, months on end without having anything to show for it, or to have an experiment cock up at the last minute, or to not have discovered anything new.

I cannot be broken. Oh no. I have conquered The Beast. I have summarised the findings of worth for you, dear reader.

TL;DR version – We've done an amazing amount of things. Look – bar chart! Look – statistics! WAAAAAYYYYUUUULLLLLZZZZZZZZZZ! LAAAAAAIRBUUUUH!

Now the serious bit. Only the hardcore need go further than this point. I'm not joking.

Still with me?

It's clear that the First Minister and his team have put a lot of work into this. If they're going to embrace transparency - which many of us complain is lacking at Cathays Park - it's only fair that when they show that they mean business, that you sit down and go through it. It's a very comprehensive report, the likes of which we haven't seen from the Welsh Government before.

In principle, it's an excellent idea that could be developed into our own "State of the Nation" address of sorts.

The report, generally, lists "key indicators", usually accompanied by a chart of some description, and listing practically every single step, recommendation or action (past, present and future) taken by the Welsh Government in each respective area.

This commitment to transparency is commendable, but there's "transparency" and then there's shining a magnesium torch in your eyes.

As you would expect, I've found quite a bit wrong with it:

• A number of "key indicators" have only one year to base judgement on, or just two or three years. It looks absolutely ridiculous seeing a bar chart with just one bar. It's an unfortunately common occurrence within the report. In primary school we were taught that it hints that you've either chosen the wrong type of graph, or you don't have enough data. I haven't counted any of the indicators where this occurs.
• There are no targets as such – a point raised by opposition politicians. It's pretty much up to you if things have gotten better or worse.
• Some of the key indicators could be considered nit-picking, or highly focused to the point of anal compulsion.
• A large chunk the key indicator performance figures are : based on statistics from years ago, don't have any figures from the current Assembly term, or don't have any figures at all. I guess the last ones will be presented as bar charts with a single bar in next year's annual report.
• There's a surprising amount of repetition, with many indicators popping up in more than one section.

Areas that have improved

The Economy & Skills

• Employment rates have recovered to around 2% below the UK average – similar to a 2003 peak.
• Numbers educated to Level 2 or above (GCSE) have risen broadly in line with England.
• Numbers educated to Level 3 or above (A-Level) have risen, but not as sharply as England or Scotland.
• Numbers education to Level 4 or above (Degree) have risen slowly, but not as sharply as England or Scotland.
• Numbers of rail journeys have increased steadily from 1999 to the present.
• Percentage of trunk roads requiring maintenance has fallen sharply since 2006 to 6%.
• Numbers of people aware of "Visit Wales" promotional material has risen from 22% to 26%.
• The value of contracts advertised through Sell2Wales has risen to £4.5billion in 2011-2012, from £3.5billion the previous year.
• The number of apprenticeships created through "Young Recruits" has risen from 1200 to 2000 from 2010-11 into 2011-12
• Apprentice success rates have risen consistently since 2007-08, but are starting to even off.

The Environment & Energy

• Greenhouse gas emissions have fallen steadily, but not dramatically, since 1999 from 56m tonnes per year to 42.6m tonnes per year.
• Percentage of electricity produced from renewables has increased from 3% to just under 5%
• The amount of electricity produced from renewables has increased from 1000 Gwh in 2004 to 1600 Gwh in 2010.
• The percentage of municipal waste recycled has risen between 2004-05 and 2010-11 from under 20% to close to 45%, the highest rate of the Home Nations.
• The percentage of water resource zones meeting headroom requirements has risen from 90% in 2006-07 to 92% in 2009-10
• The percentage of species stabilising or increasing has risen from 39% in 2002 to more than 50% in 2008.
• The percentage of habitats that are stabilising or increasing has risen slightly from 37% in 2002 to 39% in 2008.
• The number of properties benefiting from enhanced flood/coastal protection has risen from around 400 in Q2011 to more than 1200 in Q1 2012.
• The number of communities with a flood plan has increased from 70 in Q2 2011 to around 150 in Q4 2011.
• The number of green space improvement projects undertaken has risen from 40 in 2009-10 to around 48 in 2010-11
• The percentage of journeys to work under 5 miles taken by foot or bike has risen from 19% in 2004 to close to 26% in 2010.

Public Services

• The number of separate statutory plans produced by local authorities have fallen, indicating increased collaboration.
• Net and measured benefits in efficiency savings from joint procurement have risen since 2008-09, but slowed between 2010-11 and 2011-12.

Schools & Children

• The percentage of Year 9 pupils assessed in Welsh first language has risen from 13% in 1999-00 to over 16% in 2010-11.
• The percentage of Year 2 learners assessed in Welsh first language has risen from 18% in 1999-00 to 21% in 2010-11.
• Pupil attendance rates at secondary school have risen slightly from 90% to 91% between 2005-06 and 2010-11.
• Post-16 "staying on" rates have risen slightly between 2004-05 and 2010-11.
• Further education success rates have risen from 63% in 2007-08 to close to 80% in 2010-11.
• The number of higher education institutions with incomes above the UK median rose from 35% to 45% between 2008-09 and 2009-10.

Health

• The mortality rate for circulatory diseases for those aged under 75 has fallen from over 120 per 100,000 people in 2001 to around 80 per 100,000 people in 2010.
• Cancer mortality rates for those aged under 75 have fallen from around 130 per 100,000 in 2001 to under 120 per 100,000 in 2010.
• The number of deceased organ doners rose from around 40 in 2009-10 to around 70 in 2010-11.
• The percentage of adults who smoke has fallen consistently, but not dramatically, since 2004.
• The number of hospital-acquired C Difficle infections has fallen sharply between 2009 and 2011.
• The number of hospital-acquired MRSA infections has fallen consistently since 2003.
• Percentage compliance with the "stroke first hour bundle" (recognising a stroke within an hour) has risen from under 60% in 2010 to 95%+ in Feb 2012.
• Percentage compliance with the "stroke first days bundle" (receiving emergency treatment for a stroke within 24 hours) has risen from 15% in Aug 2010 to around 80% in Feb 2012.
• The number of delayed transfers of care has fallen consistently since 2004, but rates are beginning to even off at around 450 cases per month.
• The number of emergency admissions for chronic conditions has remained erratic, but generally lower than 2006.
• The percentage of ambulances making the 8 minute Category A 999 call target has generally risen from 55-60% in 2006 to around 65% in 2012. There are, however big falls in certain months (probably due to the weather).
• The number of operations cancelled has fallen consistently since 2002, from a peak of around 4500 to under 2500 in 2011-12.
• The under-16 conception rate has fallen from just under 10 birth per 1000 (aged 13-15) in 1999 to 8 per 1000 in 2010, however there was a rise between 2009 and 2010.
• The percentage of children immunised against MMR has risen from 80% in 2003-04 to around 91% in 2010-11.
• The uptake of seasonal flu vaccines amongst people age 65 or over rose from 60% in 2008-09 to 65% in 2010-11.
• The number of free public swims taken by those aged over 65 rose slightly between 2006-07 and 2010-11.
• The number of free "structured aquatic activities" taken up by over 65s and under 16s rose between 2006-07 and 2010-11.

Social Services & Care

• The number of adult service users receiving direct payments rose from 1300 in 2007-08 to around 2700 in 2011-12.
• The percentage of children seen alone by social workers at assessment rose from 14% in 2007-08 to 29% in 2011-12.
• The percentage of looked-after children with more than three placements in a year has fallen from 12% in 2006-07 to around 9.5% in 2010-11, one of the lowest rates in the UK.
• The percentage of deaths that take place at home and not in hospital has risen since 2006 and outperforms England slightly, but consistently.
• The percentage of looked-after children aged 16-17 with a "pathway plan" has risen from 75% in 2006-07 to close to 90% in 2010-11.
• Supported housing units as a percentage of total stock of residential care home places has risen from around 51% to 52% between 2008 and 2011.

Housing & Communities

• The amount of gas used in homes has fallen from 19000 Kwh in 2005 to under 16000 Kwh in 2010. The amount of electricity used in homes has fallen from 4300 Kwh in 2005 to around 3900 Hwh in 2010.
• The number of those accepted as homeless has fallen from 8 per 1000 households in 2004-05 to around 5.5 per 1000 households in 2010-11, hinting at falling homelessness.
• The number of "affordable housing units" delivered has increased from just over 1600 in 2007-08 to more than 2800 in 2010-11.
• The number of homeless families, with children, in bed and breakfast accommodation fell considerably between 2004-05 and 2010-11 from 240 to less than 20.
• The number of homeless households with dependent children has fallen from more than 4500 in 2004-05 to under 3000 in 2010-11, with a rise between 2009-10 and 2010-11.
• The number of Gypsy & Traveller sites refurbished increased from 9 in 2007-08 to 27 in 2011-12.
• The number of authorised Gypsy/Traveller sites has increased from 30 in 2008 to more than 45 in 2012.The overall recorded crime rate fell consistently between 2003 and 2011 from more than 100 recorded crimes per 1000 people to around 70 per 1000 people.
• First time entrants to the youth justice system have fallen dramatically between 2006-07 and 2010-11, from more than 5500 to around 2500.
• The rate of proven reoffending for young people has fallen slightly between 2005 and 2009.
• The number of fires attended per 100,000 population has fallen from more than 1200 in 2004-05 to around 700 in 2011-12. A better rate than Scotland, but worse than England.
• The number of non-fatal fire casualties have fallen from more than 900 in 2002-03 to under 600 in 2011-12. The number of fatal fire casualties has also fallen from 50 in 2002-03 to around 20 in 2011-12.
• The percentage of referrals to drug rehabilitation who are assessed within 10 days has risen from 55% in 2007-08 to around 65% in 2010-11.
• The percentage of referrals to drug rehabilitation who are treated within 10 days has risen from just over 80% in 2007-08 to around 87% in 2010-11.
• The number of peer mentors recruited from the European Social Fund scheme to help substance dependent beneficiaries has risen from around 20 in 2009 to more than 200 in 2011.
• The percentage change in average number of hours in an education or training scheme for those aged above statutory school age in the Youth Justice System rose between 2009-10 and 2010-11.

Social Justice

• The percentage of children with special educational needs who pass Key Stage 2 and Key Stage 4 thresholds has risen slightly since 2009-10.
• The mean average female hourly full-time earnings as a percentage of male's has risen from around 85% in 1999 to around 92-03% in 2011, exceeding UK values (excluding London & SE England).
• The percentage of people living in relative income poverty (below 60% median income) has fallen from 25% in 2000-01 to around 23.8% in 2009-10, with a spike during the recession. This remains the highest rate of the Home Nations, but broadly in line with England.
• The percentage of people in "persistent" poverty has fallen from 13% in 2002 to around 11% in 2008, but still slightly higher than England and Scotland.

Rural Affairs

• Household incomes in rural areas (where Wales =100) have risen from 98% in 1999 to close to 100% in 2010.
• The percentage of Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) direct payments made before Christmas in each year has risen from 75% in 2005 to 88% in 2011.
• 100% of all cattle herds, free of Bovine TB were tested by years end in 2010 and 2011.
• The number of applicants approved for Broadband Support Scheme funding has increased from around 300 in 2010 to more than 1500 in 2011.
• The percentage of TrawsCambria services operating a "reliable" service has improved between June 2011 and October 2011, with some major differences in individual routes.

Culture & Heritage

• The percentage of adults participating in arts activities has risen from around 30% in 1999 to around 32% in 2011, despite big falls between 1999 and 2006, and a peak of 34% in 2009.
• The number of visits to CADW monuments has risen from 1.1million in 2001-02 to just over 1.2million in 2011-12.
• The percentage of historic assets in stable or improved condition has risen slightly between 2009 and 2010 from 75% to 76%.
• The percentage of adults participating in sport or active creation has risen from over 40% in 2002-03 to around 46% in 2008-09
• The percentage of people from under-represented groups attending arts events has risen slightly between 2004 and 2010.
• The percentage of annual conservation and maintenance programmes completed has risen from under 20% in Q1 2011 to 50% in Q4 2011.
• The percentage of children studying all or part of their course through the medium of Welsh as risen from 7.7% in 2007-08 to around 9.3% in 2009-10.

Areas that have stayed the same

The Economy & Skills

• Primary income per capita has remained at around 86-87% of the UK average since at least 1999. Only Northern Ireland and Scotland have seen significant changes.
• Gross Value Added (excluding London & SE England) has remained at around 86% of the average.
• The volume of contract opportunities for Sell2Wales has risen only slightly from 2010-11 to 2011-12.
• Numbers of employees supported by the Wales Union Learning Fund has remained static at around 16,800 per annum since 2009.
• The percentage of Arriva Trains Wales services arriving on time has stayed largely the same between 2009-10 and 2010-11, but remain better than Scotrail and Northern Rail.

The Environment & Energy

• The amount of electricity generated by renewables has remained static from 2008, at around 1600 Gwh
• The number of businesses signed up to the Welsh Government's sustainable energy charter has remained the same in Q4 2011 and Q1 2012.
• The percentage of water supplies that meet drinking water standards has remain consistent since 2004 at just under 100%

Education & Children

• The number of children aged 0-3, who's health is good or very good has remained fairly static at around 96% since 2007.
• Key Stage 4 results have remained largely similar to 2009-10, while England saw a big increase in children meeting the threshold (5 GCSE's Grade A*-C).
• The percentage of 19 year olds who have achieved level 2 or 3 qualification thresholds has remained largely unchanged between 2006-07 and 2008-09.
• Pupil attendance rates at primary school has remained around 93% since 2007-08.

Health

• The numbers of emergency admissions has remained at a similar level since 2005-06.
• Mental health admissions have remained broadly similar from 2009-10 to 2010-11.
• The percentage of adults who drink above the daily recommended alcohol limits has remained largely unchanged since 2008, perhaps falling very slightly.
• The percentage low-weight live births has remained largely the same between 2003 and 2010 at around 7%.
• The percentage of adults who are physically active has remained largely unchanged at 65% between 2004 and 2011.
• The percentage of patients not referred as urgent cases, but diagnosed with cancer and starting treatment within 31 days has remained at around 99-98%, meeting Welsh Government targets.
• Percentage compliance with "stroke first three days bundle" (mobilisation of a patient in hospital within three days of treatment) has remained fairly consistent at around 90% since 2011.
• Percentage compliance with "stroke first seven days bundle" (patient sees a specialist within seven days of treatment) has remained fairly consistent at around 90%-95% since 2010.
• The number of admissions for a "defined chronic basket" of conditions has remained fairly consistent since 2006, with erratic months.
• The percentage of practices that review palliative care needs with patients on the palliative care register has generally remained at around 87% since 2006-07.
• The percentage of GP practices that has carried out a medications review within 15 months for all patients with 4 or more repeat medications has remained consistent at around 98% since 2006-07.
• The percentage of patients treated by an NHS dentist has remained largely the same, at around 56%, between 2006 and 2011.

Social Services & Care

• The number of delayed transfers due to choice of care home has remained consistent at around 150 between 2009 and 2012.
• The percentage of adult service users helped to live in the community has remained at around 82% since 2009-10.
• The percentage of children classified as "in need" has remained at around 3%.
• The percentage of looked-after children who experience one or more change of schools has remained at around 14% between 2006 and 2012.
• The percentage of delayed transfers for social care reasons has remained erratic, but largely unchanged at between 24-28% between 2009 and 2012.

Housing & Communities

• The estimated number of homes needed has remained at around 14000 per year since 2007.
• The percentage of successful prosecutions for violence against women has remained static at around 70% between 2009 and 2011.
• The percentage of young people with substance misuse problems within the Youth Justice System who received treatment within 5 or 10 days remained the same in 2009-10 and 2010-11.
• The proportion of young people sentenced to custody remained largely the same, at around 5.7% between 2009-10 and 2010-11.

Social Justice

• The gap between girls and boys performance at Key Stage 2 and Key Stage 4 in maths and English/Welsh first language has remained the same, despite rises in overall pass rates for both.
• Incidences of hate crimes have remained the same between 2009 and 2010.
• Incidences of sexual crimes have remained largely the same between 2010 and 2011 at around 2500 per year.
• The female employment rate has remained steady between 2005 and 2011 at around 64%, perhaps falling slightly.
• Employment rates for disabled people have remained steady between 2005 and 2011 at around 41-42%.
• The percentage of workless households relative to the rest of the UK has been erratic,but remaining consistently at around 120% (where the UK is 100).
• The percentage of children living in workless households relative to the rest of the UK has also remained erratic, but remaining consistently at around 115% (where UK = 100)
• The percentage of households in fuel poverty has remained around 26% between 2008 and 2010.

Rural Affairs

• The number of passengers of TrawsCambria bus services has remained at around 475,000 between 2007-08 and 2010-11.
• The number of passengers using the Bwcabus service has remained generally similar at around 13000 between 2010 and 2011.

Culture & Heritage

• The percentage of children participating in arts activities has remained largely steady between 2009 and 2011 at around 83%
• The number of physical visits to local and national museums has broadly remained at around 16.2 million since 2006-07.
• The percentage of primary school children participating in sport or active recreation has remained at around 76% between 2000 and 2011, with rises and falls in between.
• The number of students studying at further or higher education institutions through the medium of Welsh has remained largely at 4500 between 2008-09 and 2009-10.

Areas that have gotten worse

The Economy & Skills

• Percentage of people aged 16-18 not in work, education or training have risen to around 11%, higher than England (8% in 2010)
• Percentage of people aged 19-25 not in work, education of training has risen sharply between 2008-2010.
• The number of beneficiaries from the ReAct programme has fallen from over 10,000 in 2009 to just over 4,000 in 2011 (this could be a sign of economic recovery).
• Number of bus journeys in Wales have fallen since 2008.
• The total number of km of trunk road or motorway resurfaced or repaired has fallen from just over 300km to 280km.
• Market-led broadband roll-out remains the lowest of the Home Nations.
• The percentage of the population, within postal district, with at least one mobile phone provider (2G) has fallen consistently since 2007

The Environment & Energy

• The number of homes benefiting from improved domestic energy performance has fallen sharply between 2008-09 and 2010-11.
• The number of properties at risk from flooding has increased from 170,000 in 2006 to 220,000 in 2008.

Education & Children

• The percentage change in income to Welsh universities from research councils has fallen from 24% in 2008-09 to 3% in 2010-11 and 2011-12, largely matching UK trends.
• The gap in attainment at Key Stage 4 based on deprivation has widened since 2005-06, from 29% to 32%, with a slight fall between 2009-10 and 2010-11.
• The number of further education institutions has fallen from 22 in 2001-02 to 14 in 2011-12 (probably due to mergers).

Health

• The gap in life expect ency between most and least deprived has increased at broadly the same level between 2002 and 2009.
• The percentage of adults who are obese has risen from 18% in 2004 to 22% in 2011.
• The percentage of patients diagnosed as urgent cancer cases, and being treated within 62 days of referral has fallen from around 97% in 2008 to around 90% in 2011.
• The percentage of the population registered as having dementia has risen from 2.5% in 2006-07 to 2.8% in 2010-11.
• The performance against 26 week waiting times between referral to treatment has fallen from close to 100% in 2009 to around 97% in Mar 2012. This does, however, exceed the 95% Welsh Government target.
• The percentage of patients spending less than 4 hours in accident and emergency has fallen from around 94% in 2006 to around 89% in 2011-12.
• The number of free public swims taken by under-16s fell sharply between 2008-09 and 2010-11.

Social Services & Care

• The percentage of care leavers, aged 19, in education, training or employment has remained at around 45%, significantly below other parts of the UK, which averages at around 60-65%.
• The percentage of home care clients receiving 20 hours or more care per week has fallen steadily since 2003-04 from just over 9% to 8%.

Housing & Communities

• The number of new homes constructed fell sharply, from around 9000 per year to 6000 per year between 2006-07 and 2010-11, coming nowhere near to meeting projected demand.
• The number of houses assessed to have safety hazards increased between 2009-10 and 2010-11.
• The number of people helped with "care and repair" fell between 2010-11 and 2011-12.
• Perceptions of anti-social behaviour have risen between 2005-06 and 2011-12 from 13% to around 17%.
• Prevalence of problematic drug misuse has risen from 2.4% in 2008 to 2.9% in 2010, with an upward trend.
• The number of drug related deaths has risen from around 70 in 2004 to around 150 in 2010.
• The number of alcohol related deaths has risen from under 400 in 2001 to around 475 in 2010, peaking in 2008.
• Numbers killed or seriously injured in road accidents have risen between 2010 and 2011 after large falls between 2007-2009.
• The percentage of people in the Youth Justice System in Wales with access to suitable accommodation has fallen slightly from just under 14% in 2009 to just over 12% in 2010.
• The percentage change in average number of hours in an education or training scheme for those of statutory school age in the Youth Justice System fell between 2009-10 and 2010-11.

Social Justice

• The percentage of household accepted as homeless from ethnic minorities has risen from just under 3% in 2005-06 to close to 9% in 2010-11.
• The male employment rate has fallen from 75% in 2005 to just over 70% in 2011.
• Employment rates for those from ethnic minorities have been erratic, with a sharp fall between 2010 and 2011 from a peak of 62% to under 56%. Employment rates for BME's remain significantly lower than those of white ethnicity.
• The percentage of children living in "combined material deprivation" has risen from 17% in 2007-08 to 20% in 2009-10, significantly higher than any other Home Nation.
• The take up of specific benefit advice schemes has fallen from around 4300 (Better Advice Better Health) in 2008-09 to around 2200 in 2010-11.

Rural Affairs

• The percentage of people employed in rural areas has fallen from 71% in 2005 to around 69%, but remains higher than urban & rural areas combined.

Culture & Heritage

• The number of visits to national museum sites are erratic, but fell from just under 500,000 in 2009 to around 300,000 at the start 2011.
• The number of secondary school children participating in sport or active recreation rose between 2001 and 2009, but fell sharply from 75% to 65% between 2009 and 2011.
• The percentage of pupils aged 5 who start the academic year who speak Welsh fluently at home has fallen slightly from 7% in 2004-05 to 6% in 2011-12.
• The percentage of the population able to speak, read or write Welsh has fallen from 24% in 2001 to 22% in 2010, based on the Annual Population Survey.

If you've gotten all this way without skipping, you're either genuinely interested in this, or, like me, you probably don't have a life. Thanks anyway. I have far more interesting blogs over the next week, I promise.