It's the biggest single-sport event of the Summer, co-hosted by Poland & Ukraine, starting tomorrow afternoon.
There's no Welsh involvement obviously. The death of Gary Speed cast a shadow over a promising end to the qualification campaign. With the European Championships expanding to a 24-team tournament, Euro 2016 will be the best chance for Wales to qualify for a major tournament since 2004's disappointment. Wales should make the most of it, because I'm sure once all the complications of a 24-team tournament become obvious, it'll revert back to 16-teams.
However that's no reason to avoid looking at how our English and Irish friends will do.
Group A
Russia
Poland
---------
Czech Republic
Greece
Co-hosts Poland have an exciting generation of young players coming through. Wojciech Szczesny is one of the most talented young goalkeepers in the English Premier League, while Robert Lewandowski is one of the most prolific strikers in Europe. They are on the cusp of emulating the great sides of the 70s and 80s. It'll probably be inexperience of a few of the players that will let them down, offset by home advantage. I think they can get out of their group.
Russia have an immensely talented team, and an extremely effective forward line that includes the likes of Andrei Arshavin, Roman Pavlyuchenko and Pavel Pogrebnyak. I expect them to be fighting with the Czech Republic and Poland for the top two places and they'll probably get through in the end. They'll be serious challengers for a European or World Championship in the next decade, but I think this is too soon.
The Czech Republic will want to exorcise memories of Euro 2008, Petr Cech in particular. Milan Baros has a fearsome record at international level in goalscoring, but will influential player, and captain, Tomas Rosisky manage to stay fit the whole tournament? Russia will be too strong for them, I'm guessing, and they play Poland in their last game which will probably be the decider for second place, with home advantage being critical.
Greece will want to put smiles on faces back home. Can they repeat Euro 2004? Not a chance. They'll have to be incredibly disciplined, and incredibly lucky, to get out of a group with the hosts, Russia and the Czechs.
Group B
Netherlands
Germany
---------
Portugal
Denmark
The "Group of Death" in this tournament, but I actually think it's going to be fairly routine.
The Netherlands have one of the strongest squads at Euro 2012 and likely to be amongst the favourites. Only great rivals Germany are a real threat to them in this group. They are an incredibly attack-minded side, despite their anti-football at the 2010 World Cup Final. I fully expect them to get out of the group.
Germany are overdue a big tournament win, their last international trophy being Euro 96. If I were a betting man I'd put money on them. They are most people's favourites this time around, and probably mine as well. I think they'll be too strong for Portugal, and will probably flatten Denmark. It would be a huge shock if they didn't get out of this group.
Portugal look weaker than previous years, but on their day they can be a match for anyone. I just don't think they have enough to take on The Netherlands and Germany. They have no strikers of any note and will probably be reliant on Christiano Ronaldo and Nani to create chances.
Denmark will probably lose every game in a group like this. They performed incredibly well in qualifying, but I think even they'll accept this draw could've been kinder. Third place in the group at best. They have some of the best travelling fans in Europe though.
Group C
Spain
Italy
----------
Croatia
Republic of Ireland
I think Spain are going to be found out this time around, but they are still obvious contenders. Injuries to Puyol and Villa will be huge blows, and the core of the team are starting to show their age. I fully expect them to remain competitive, but I don't think they'll retain their title.
I think Italy are going to be the surprise package. They've had two very disappointing tournaments on the trot. With match-fixing scandals at home, they tend to perform when their backs are up against it. A few kind results here and there could see them go far, but I'd be surprised if they won it. They have a young side with a lot to prove, tempered with an experienced midfield at their peak ages, but they'll have to hope Mario Ballotelli doesn't go off on one, or destabilise the squad.
Croatia suffered heartache in 2008, exiting to Turkey on penalties. They have some very gifted players like Luka Modric, Niko Kranjcar, Eduardo and Vedran Corluka. However I think Spain and Italy will simply be too much for them.
What of the Republic of Ireland? Their first European Championships for 24 years. Russia aside, they had a pretty easy qualifying group in all honesty, and I think it'll show. It does have some sort of inevitability that they'll likely get something out of the Italy game, but it's incredibly optimistic to see them get out of their group.
Group D
France
England
----------
Sweden
Ukraine
France are a far cry from the shambles they were at the 2010 World Cup. On paper, they have one of the strongest squads, but it depends on which France will turn up. I fully expect them to qualify from the group quite comfortably, but after that, who knows? The tournament's dark horses, in my opinion, but they'll have to convincingly beat England in the first game.
What lies ahead for England (or should that be Liverpool-Everton XI) and Woy? The squad is mostly young, hungry, but in some areas woefully inadequate or inexperienced for this level – in particular "bench/squad" players. I think it's safe to say England are "in transition". However, I think they place too much emphasis on Wayne Rooney's contributions and are overestimating Sweden and Ukraine. They'll find it difficult, but I'd expect them to qualify from the group, which is probably the minimum the English would expect. For once though, I don't think there are many people predicting an England tournament win. Maybe with expectations at a low level though, they can produce results with the pressure off. We'll see.
Sweden's qualification performance betrays the straightforwardness of that qualifying group (Netherlands aside). They don't have a squad that screams that they'll do anything dramatic. Zlatan Ibrahimovic will probably be carrying the side, but they have a decent record at big tournaments for a country their size. Maybe they can cause an upset against England or France, but likely not.
Co-hosts Ukraine play in a European championships for the first time. Most of their players play in the, not brilliant but not great either, Ukrainian Premier League. I'm not expecting miracles from them here, but I wouldn't be surprised if they pulled off a brave performance or two in front of their own fans.
I also think the racism issue, however serious, has been massively overblown. Club and international football are very different and the Ukrainians won't allow anything to happen that projects them in a bad light. These "negative" stories are dug up before every major tournament. In 1994 it was that the Americans didn't like "sawkerball". In 1998, 2000 and 2006 it was hooliganism (and it did come true to an extent). In 2002 it was the South Korean and Japanese perceived lack of atmosphere. In 2004 it was organisational difficulties in Portugal. In 2010 it was South Africa's high crime rate. It's racism this time around, and it appears organisational difficulties are being expressed for 2014. The less said about the 2018 and 2022 World Cups the better.
Maybe it's justified this time, but it does have a patronising, sensationalist, perhaps even ignorant, undertone to it. Finger's crossed nothing happens to cast a shadow.
Knockout stages
Quarter-finals
Russia v Germany
Spain v England
Netherlands v Poland
France v Italy
Russia get a rubbish draw from their perspective. It should be against Germany, who should also win any duel between them. England, should they fail to win their group, will likely face Spain and I think there's only ever going to be one outcome there – England out at the quarter finals, but probably not involving penalties.
Netherlands v Poland should be a walkover for the Dutch (on paper), despite home advantage for the Poles. France v Italy would be an interesting one and hard to call. I'll go for France through on penalties. It's a coin toss.
Semi-finals
Germany v Spain
Netherlands v France
A step too far for Spain I believe. There's been a noticeable shift from "attractive" to "efficient/direct" football across Europe the last few years. If anyone can stomp out Spain's Barcelona-inspired "tiki-taka", it'll be the Germans.
There's one small problem with the Netherlands – they're perennial chokers. On paper they'll get into the final, but I wouldn't be surprised if France fluke it, sending the Dutch home on penalties or in extra time.
Final
Germany v France
The Germans are due a big tournament win, as I said earlier, I think they'll get it too – against France or the Netherlands.
There's no Welsh involvement obviously. The death of Gary Speed cast a shadow over a promising end to the qualification campaign. With the European Championships expanding to a 24-team tournament, Euro 2016 will be the best chance for Wales to qualify for a major tournament since 2004's disappointment. Wales should make the most of it, because I'm sure once all the complications of a 24-team tournament become obvious, it'll revert back to 16-teams.
However that's no reason to avoid looking at how our English and Irish friends will do.
Group A
Russia
Poland
---------
Czech Republic
Greece
Co-hosts Poland have an exciting generation of young players coming through. Wojciech Szczesny is one of the most talented young goalkeepers in the English Premier League, while Robert Lewandowski is one of the most prolific strikers in Europe. They are on the cusp of emulating the great sides of the 70s and 80s. It'll probably be inexperience of a few of the players that will let them down, offset by home advantage. I think they can get out of their group.
Russia have an immensely talented team, and an extremely effective forward line that includes the likes of Andrei Arshavin, Roman Pavlyuchenko and Pavel Pogrebnyak. I expect them to be fighting with the Czech Republic and Poland for the top two places and they'll probably get through in the end. They'll be serious challengers for a European or World Championship in the next decade, but I think this is too soon.
The Czech Republic will want to exorcise memories of Euro 2008, Petr Cech in particular. Milan Baros has a fearsome record at international level in goalscoring, but will influential player, and captain, Tomas Rosisky manage to stay fit the whole tournament? Russia will be too strong for them, I'm guessing, and they play Poland in their last game which will probably be the decider for second place, with home advantage being critical.
Greece will want to put smiles on faces back home. Can they repeat Euro 2004? Not a chance. They'll have to be incredibly disciplined, and incredibly lucky, to get out of a group with the hosts, Russia and the Czechs.
Group B
Netherlands
Germany
---------
Portugal
Denmark
The "Group of Death" in this tournament, but I actually think it's going to be fairly routine.
The Netherlands have one of the strongest squads at Euro 2012 and likely to be amongst the favourites. Only great rivals Germany are a real threat to them in this group. They are an incredibly attack-minded side, despite their anti-football at the 2010 World Cup Final. I fully expect them to get out of the group.
Germany are overdue a big tournament win, their last international trophy being Euro 96. If I were a betting man I'd put money on them. They are most people's favourites this time around, and probably mine as well. I think they'll be too strong for Portugal, and will probably flatten Denmark. It would be a huge shock if they didn't get out of this group.
Portugal look weaker than previous years, but on their day they can be a match for anyone. I just don't think they have enough to take on The Netherlands and Germany. They have no strikers of any note and will probably be reliant on Christiano Ronaldo and Nani to create chances.
Denmark will probably lose every game in a group like this. They performed incredibly well in qualifying, but I think even they'll accept this draw could've been kinder. Third place in the group at best. They have some of the best travelling fans in Europe though.
Group C
Spain
Italy
----------
Croatia
Republic of Ireland
I think Spain are going to be found out this time around, but they are still obvious contenders. Injuries to Puyol and Villa will be huge blows, and the core of the team are starting to show their age. I fully expect them to remain competitive, but I don't think they'll retain their title.
I think Italy are going to be the surprise package. They've had two very disappointing tournaments on the trot. With match-fixing scandals at home, they tend to perform when their backs are up against it. A few kind results here and there could see them go far, but I'd be surprised if they won it. They have a young side with a lot to prove, tempered with an experienced midfield at their peak ages, but they'll have to hope Mario Ballotelli doesn't go off on one, or destabilise the squad.
Croatia suffered heartache in 2008, exiting to Turkey on penalties. They have some very gifted players like Luka Modric, Niko Kranjcar, Eduardo and Vedran Corluka. However I think Spain and Italy will simply be too much for them.
What of the Republic of Ireland? Their first European Championships for 24 years. Russia aside, they had a pretty easy qualifying group in all honesty, and I think it'll show. It does have some sort of inevitability that they'll likely get something out of the Italy game, but it's incredibly optimistic to see them get out of their group.
Group D
France
England
----------
Sweden
Ukraine
France are a far cry from the shambles they were at the 2010 World Cup. On paper, they have one of the strongest squads, but it depends on which France will turn up. I fully expect them to qualify from the group quite comfortably, but after that, who knows? The tournament's dark horses, in my opinion, but they'll have to convincingly beat England in the first game.
What lies ahead for England (or should that be Liverpool-Everton XI) and Woy? The squad is mostly young, hungry, but in some areas woefully inadequate or inexperienced for this level – in particular "bench/squad" players. I think it's safe to say England are "in transition". However, I think they place too much emphasis on Wayne Rooney's contributions and are overestimating Sweden and Ukraine. They'll find it difficult, but I'd expect them to qualify from the group, which is probably the minimum the English would expect. For once though, I don't think there are many people predicting an England tournament win. Maybe with expectations at a low level though, they can produce results with the pressure off. We'll see.
Sweden's qualification performance betrays the straightforwardness of that qualifying group (Netherlands aside). They don't have a squad that screams that they'll do anything dramatic. Zlatan Ibrahimovic will probably be carrying the side, but they have a decent record at big tournaments for a country their size. Maybe they can cause an upset against England or France, but likely not.
Co-hosts Ukraine play in a European championships for the first time. Most of their players play in the, not brilliant but not great either, Ukrainian Premier League. I'm not expecting miracles from them here, but I wouldn't be surprised if they pulled off a brave performance or two in front of their own fans.
I also think the racism issue, however serious, has been massively overblown. Club and international football are very different and the Ukrainians won't allow anything to happen that projects them in a bad light. These "negative" stories are dug up before every major tournament. In 1994 it was that the Americans didn't like "sawkerball". In 1998, 2000 and 2006 it was hooliganism (and it did come true to an extent). In 2002 it was the South Korean and Japanese perceived lack of atmosphere. In 2004 it was organisational difficulties in Portugal. In 2010 it was South Africa's high crime rate. It's racism this time around, and it appears organisational difficulties are being expressed for 2014. The less said about the 2018 and 2022 World Cups the better.
Maybe it's justified this time, but it does have a patronising, sensationalist, perhaps even ignorant, undertone to it. Finger's crossed nothing happens to cast a shadow.
Knockout stages
Quarter-finals
Russia v Germany
Spain v England
Netherlands v Poland
France v Italy
Russia get a rubbish draw from their perspective. It should be against Germany, who should also win any duel between them. England, should they fail to win their group, will likely face Spain and I think there's only ever going to be one outcome there – England out at the quarter finals, but probably not involving penalties.
Netherlands v Poland should be a walkover for the Dutch (on paper), despite home advantage for the Poles. France v Italy would be an interesting one and hard to call. I'll go for France through on penalties. It's a coin toss.
Semi-finals
Germany v Spain
Netherlands v France
A step too far for Spain I believe. There's been a noticeable shift from "attractive" to "efficient/direct" football across Europe the last few years. If anyone can stomp out Spain's Barcelona-inspired "tiki-taka", it'll be the Germans.
There's one small problem with the Netherlands – they're perennial chokers. On paper they'll get into the final, but I wouldn't be surprised if France fluke it, sending the Dutch home on penalties or in extra time.
Final
Germany v France
The Germans are due a big tournament win, as I said earlier, I think they'll get it too – against France or the Netherlands.
Can't see much wrong with any of that, if we can get off to a good start in our WC qualifiers then a play off spot isn't out of the question. And gaining coefficient points ahead of the 2016 qualifying draw will be crucial.
ReplyDeleteIreland will have a laugh, enjoy themselves and I wouldn't be surprised if they took a big scalp, most likely Italy.
As for England. I think France have that group wrapped up. Sweden are a bit of a bogey team for them so I can see that being a draw with it all coming down to who puts the most past the Ukraine.
With the recent Celtic bid for Euro 2020 it'll be interesting to see how the home fans behave. Turkey are also bidding and they have their fair share of "colourful" fans too.
Looking forward to the games, the KO times are almost perfect.
Wales' World Cup group looks very tight now, especially as Belgium are emerging as one of the most talented nations in Europe. I'm less confident about our chances now as I was last year.
ReplyDeleteAs I said, it's inevitable Ireland will get something against Italy. They have a decent record against them as well.
England could probably get out of the group with two draws and a win, and yes it'll probably go down to goal difference. But really, with the talent at their disposal England should get out of the group. It's a harder group than previous tournaments, but they still have a strong team, if inexperienced.
I think Euro 2020 was an "expression of interest" rather than a formal bid. I think it'll be very difficult, logistically. I'll probably look at it in more detail another time. I'd be very surprised if it went to anyone else but Turkey. Having said that, if the Celtic bid is to succeed Istanbul needs to lose the race to host the 2020 Olympics, which is what they've really wanted for decades.
Providing they have no problem with more than one stadium per city then there's no problems logistically, currently we're two 30k stadiums short but both Swansea and Cardiff will have 30k+ seater stadiums by then. You never know, maybe even Belfasts ground could be upgraded as part of a unified Ireland by then!
ReplyDeleteAlso Turkey are in the run for the Olympics and Platini has already confirmed they cant have both.
There's a good forum for Welsh football here http://apostlewelshfootie.proboards.com/
There are rumours that UEFA actually wants a "Celtic" bid. It was UEFA that invited Wales, Scotland and Ireland to express their interest.
ReplyDeleteTurkey's big problem is the current corruption scandal in their game.
WNB - It's quite a big problem. Unless Croke Park were used, Cardiff would have the largest stadium, but it's unlikely the Irish or Scots would want any final held in Cardiff if they have to take more of the slack, stadium wise. Wales would probably need another stadium outside Cardiff or Swansea. I'm sure there are plenty of candidates for that.
ReplyDeleteAnon 11:10 - They probably want the "bid" to make it look like there's a fight for the right to host it. I generally support the move to 24-teams (as it gives Wales a better chance to qualify!) but it's big ask for small countries to host it now, even if Wal/Sco/Ire have some decent stadiums ready to go.
Corruption hasn't stopped anything before. It'll come down to money and lobbying as always. It'll probably all be off if Istanbul gets the 2020 Olympics as WNB said.
I'll be supporting Ireland but I think Germany will win it.
ReplyDeleteEuro 2020
ReplyDeleteStadium Criteria
2 stadiums with 50,000 seats
3 stadiums with 40,000 seats
4 stadiums with 30,000 seats
Scotland has 3 x 50k+ Stadiums in Glasgow. I can't see them caring too much about the one stadium per city rule. Would they rather them expand stadiums in Edinburgh and Aberdeen and sell 30k tickets or have an extra two in Glasgow and sell 50k? Money wins everytime.
Ireland has Croke Park which is 80k+ and 2x50k+
Wales has 1x70k+ and 2x20k+ Both should be 30k+ by 2020.
Not much.
As for the final then (as you say proving Croke is allowed) how about a winner takes all mini league, home and away between the three of us. Winner gets the final. Losers get the semis plus either the 3rd place play off or the extra quarter final.
We wont have any qualifiers so there'll be plenty of free dates for the games. UEFA would didvide up the groups to have 5 groups of 6 and 4 groups of 4. So there should also be a few teams having free fixtures too.
It'll be interesting to see how the UK government will try and poke their noses in, especially when it'll be nothing to do with them.
Should say 4 groups of 5.
ReplyDelete53 teams -3 hosts is 50.
5x6 + 4x5
The Informer - Germany looked pretty sluggish last night. I don't think they'd be able to cope against any team that "parks the bus". That could open the door for less attacking sides.
ReplyDeleteWNB - Thanks for the detailed reply. I like the idea of a mini-league, but UEFA will probably want the final venue decided long before qualifying starts. There's also the issue of "back up venues" too. I think Poland & Ukraine had Kracow, a second Warsaw stadium and Dnipropetrovosk as back up stadiums built to the same standard as the final venues. In fact, Poland probably would've been able to host the tournament by themselves on paper.
I guess we'll have a better idea when a proper bid is drawn up, but I still think Wales will need a "third/fourth" stadium, and there probably are possible venues that could be temporarily brought up to 30,000 or so.