Poverty of ambition hurts Wales most

Some more feel-good news today from the Joseph Rowntree Foundation. The Welsh Government's long-held target to eradicate child poverty by 2020 is going to be missed spectacularly if the rate doesn't fall at least four times as fast over the next ten years as it has over the last ten.

In its research, entitled "Monitoring poverty and social exclusion in Wales 2011", the findings conclude that:

• Half of children in poverty in Wales belong to working families.
• Half of the improvement in child poverty rates has been lost in the last 5 years.
• 600,000 people in Wales, including 100,000 pensioners are in relative poverty, 23% of the population.
• One third of adults are disabled or have a disabled partner.

Statistical Tricks

Relative poverty is defined as income falling below 60% of the UK median - once adjustments are made for household size, housing costs and taxation. That median - being a whole UK figure - will no doubt suffer from the "bubble distortion" of South East England and London.

Wales - with average incomes at about 90% of the UK average - is always going to come off relatively badly in these statistics. These statistics also don't take into account the cost of living, which is marginally lower in Wales.

It's safe to say that the "real" relative poverty marker in Wales - 60% of the Welsh median incom -, is lower than that of the rest of the UK. That's probably the same case in other nations and regions as well - for example, the North East England and Northern Ireland.

£290 a week for a couple with two children in Merthyr Tydfil will go further than £290 in Berkshire, yet both will be classed as in relative poverty. Surely "relative poverty" should take these "relative" national and regional differences into account.

The good news we shouldn't ignore

Before we all hang our heads and browbeat ourselves about how we're all failures (the too poor, too thick, too sick gambit) the research also has some good news.

Firstly, that child poverty has fallen and remains lower than in 2000 - despite a recession rebound.

Qualification/skill levels in Wales are massively improved, with more people in Wales aged 25-44 possessing qualifications above Level 3 (A-Levels and degrees) and a big drop in those with qualifications below Level 2 (5 GCSE's A*-C). The unemployment rate in 2010 for those with Level 2 and Level 3 qualifications was lower compared to 2000.

Recent ONS statistics also showed that Wales has the lowest rate of workless households of all the Home Nations at just 1.3%. This will no doubt include a large number - of what the report describes as - "part-working families", for example, a single parent working part-time for the minimum wage. It's these people that have been let-down, as half of children in poverty in Wales belong to a "working household".

Could this be another distortion of the statistics?

Remember that the relative poverty line for a couple with 2 children is £300 per week after deductions. In many parts of Wales, for example the industrial estates of the Valleys, that would be considered a fairly average private sector wage and it would probably stretch a fair bit as well once cost of living is factored in.

I doubt many people in the wealthier parts of the UK would get out of bed for that money. It's a sad indictment of the "race to the bottom" in terms of wages, rising inflation and additional burdens on families such as the VAT rise.

Setting Impossible Targets

"Eradicating child poverty by 2020" is going to be engraved on Welsh Labour's tombstone.

Those parties that decided to ride along with it in the May election should be breathing a sign of relief that they don't have to deliver that pledge - despite foolishly including it in their manifestos.

The report states that "full (time) working" would need to become the norm, the child poverty rate would need to fall four times faster than it has in the last ten years and there would need to be significant policy changes both in Wales (over devolved matters) and in Westminster on things like tax and welfare.

Good luck with that, Carwyn.

The report describes this pledge as "extremely ambitious". I'd describe it as insane.

Relative poverty isn't going to go away. By definition there'll always be a section of the population that have an income below 60% of the median (even if incomes dramatically increased) through no fault of their own. Sadly, children will be caught up in this as well. The recession almost wiped out any progress made in this area in Wales. One of those benefits of being part of the UK, eh?

Having said that, I can't fault the ambition. It's a bit like wanting Wales to win the World Cup. The FIFA World Cup.

Poverty of Ambition

Wales is locked in a cycle of self-fulfilling prophecy and depression. We're naturally pessimistic as a people. We lack confidence and vision. Worse of all, we don't know how to handle success, only manage failure. This is an attitude that's prevalent in our media, our public debate, our homes and to a certain extent our levels of government as well.

There are certain communities in Wales that have been severely let down by the powers that be and by themselves. It isn't a human rights violation to travel from the Valleys to Cardiff to work (if there are jobs in the first place). Likewise it's not right to expect them to do so on scatty, inefficient public transport - only to earn slightly more than they would on benefits.

People shouldn't allow themselves to fall out of education, likewise they should have opportunities to learn to their strengths and not forced down narrow, academic routes.

If we are going to break this cycle, it's not going to be done through reports and commentary from various groups who mean well but tell us what we already knew. Wales needs action, and it doesn't stop at the steps of the Senedd or Westminster, but in every single household of the nation.

Only Wales can better itself - nobody is going to do it for us. We can all aim higher, but we don't have to lose sight of the ground in doing so by aiming for impossible goals or making wacky pledges.

Sometimes it's as simple as trying something new, learning a new skill or taking a new idea to people who can make it a reality.

Government can enable it, but ultimately it comes down to personal responsibility and self-respect - not just as a nation but as individuals that still have something to offer one another no matter how hard times might be.