Senedd Watch - August 2013

• Plaid Cymru comfortably held Ynys Môn following the August 1^st Assembly by-election, with Rhun ap Iorwerth taking 58% of the vote off a 42% turn out. Labour finished second with 16%, and UKIP third with 14%.
• Former Education Minister, Leighton Andrews AM (Lab, Rhondda), defended his intervention in English language GCSE marking in August 2012, after a former WJEC acting chair described it as “authoritarian and incompetent”. Leighton Andrews said criticism was “ludicrous”, and that the WJEC board were “hung up on....points of process” without considering “fairness for Welsh pupils”.
• Natural Resources and Food Minister, Alun Davies (Lab, Blaenau Gwent), confirmed Cardiff's Prosiect Gwyrdd incinerator will receive £100million of Welsh Government funding over 25 years (£4.3million per annum). Anti-incinerator campaigners were said to be “astonished” at the figures, having mounted a legal challenge against the project. It was revealed on August 30th that Welsh local authorities were on course to meet recycling targets, with 52% of waste recycled in the year to March 2013.
• Welsh language commissioner, Meri Huws, published her first annual report. There were 468 complaints, the vast majority relating to public or crown bodies and a quarter relating to private companies. The commissioner also responded to the 2011 census figures, suggesting “strategic and radical” policies to ensure the Welsh language's future.
• Shadow Education Minister, Angela Burns (Con, Carms W. & S. Pembs.), proposed separate vocational and academic streams based on ability from age 14, as part of wider Welsh Conservative proposals to restore elements of the grammar school system. Education Minister Huw Lewis (Lab, Merthyr Tydfil & Rhymney) was said to be “bemused”, saying he was “committed to excellent schools for all”.
• The Children & Young People Committee report into Attendance and Behaviour recommended the Welsh Government's proposed truancy fines be dropped, and that more work be done to tackle bullying – cited as a main cause of poor attendance.
• A joint Welsh Government, S4C and BBC study - released at the National Eisteddfod in Denbighshire - reported just 31% of young Welsh speakers used the language in their everyday lives compared to 61% of over-60s. The First Minister said it underlined the need for more Welsh-medium activities for young people.
• A report from the UK Changing Union group revealed young voters (18-35 year olds) were more indifferent towards devolution, and unclear about the National Assembly's responsibilities, compared to older voters.
• A separate poll for the Silk Commission found a majority supported further powers for the Assembly over criminal justice, policing, energy and broadcasting, with a slim majority in favour of devolving welfare. The National Assembly also had a higher approval rating (5.6/10) than Westminster (4.3/10).
• A Vale of Glamorgan Council cabinet member called for a Welsh Government review into how the Football Association of Wales (FAW) runs the sport, after Barry Town United were reinstated to the Welsh League following a High Court ruling that their temporary expulsion was unlawful.
• A second Assembly Bill was referred to the Supreme Court. The Agricultural Sector Bill – passed as emergency legislation in July – was deemed outside of the Assembly's competence by UK Attorney General, Dominic Grieve QC. A hearing has been set for 5^th December 2013.
• The Assembly's Environment and Sustainability report into water services rejected UK Government proposals to increase competition between water companies through extending parts of the Water Bill to cover Wales. The committee said the success of the not-for-dividend business model of Dwr Cymru proved that commercial competition wasn't appropriate.
• The number of top-grade (A* & A) passes at A-Level in Wales fell from 23.6% to 22.9% compared to 2012, and also fell compared to the England, Wales & Northern Ireland average of 26.3%. Welsh Baccalaureate passes, however, rose by 4% on 2012, while girls continue to out-perform boys - except at the highest A* grade.
• The Assembly's Health Committee report into the 2012-13 measles epidemic warned against complacency, with 30,000 children remaining unvaccinated against measles across the country. Concerns were also raised about information sharing between health authorities.
• Local health boards released figures to The Western Mail revealing 13,000 cancelled operations over the last three years, mainly due to bed and staff shortages. Shadow Health Minister Darren Millar (Con, Clwyd West) blamed the Welsh Government for wasting funds. The Welsh Government said operations were routinely cancelled for clinical reasons, but they were "working to reduce the number”.
• The first results from national literacy and numeracy tests for 6-14 year olds highlighted a drop in reading ability between primary and secondary schools. Numeracy performances remained relatively stable across all age groups. NUT Cymru questioned the value of the tests, while Angela Burns AM called for a new range of middle schools for 8-14 year olds.
• The gap in top grade (A* & A) GCSE passes between Wales and England & Northern Ireland narrowed. A*- C pass rates were 65.7% compared to a Wales, England and Northern Ireland average of 68.1%. However, there were sharp falls in A*- C pass rates in science and maths, broadly mirroring similar falls in England and Northern Ireland.
• The Committee for the Scrutiny of the First Minister called for Welsh Government action following hold-ups to the doubling of the Wrexham-Chester railway. Aled Roberts AM (Lib Dem, North Wales) said it was “clear north Wales doesn't receive its fair share of expenditure for capital projects.”
• A row broke out between English Local Government Secretary, Eric Pickles MP, and the Welsh Government over local authorities blocking recording of council meetings. The Welsh Government described it as “obsessive” and a “cheap political attack” against Labour. Despite this, Local Government Minister Lesley Griffiths (Lab, Wrexham) later encouraged Welsh local authorities to allow the use of social media and filming at council meetings, describing them as "excellent tools".
• Rare Cancers Foundation research found Welsh patients are four times less likely to receive approval for new cancer treatments than patients in England. The Welsh Government rejected calls for a cancer drugs fund, saying it was neither supported by the medical profession or the public, and that it would “disadvantage patients with serious conditions other than cancer.”

Projects announced in August include : A £15million package for seven medical technology projects, a 20-year strategy for rail development in south east Wales, a £5million 16-bed ward at Tywyn Hospital and a merger between Trinity St David's University and Coleg Sir Gar to create a “radical new institution” serving 25,000 students.

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"Devo-wuh?" Young attitudes towards Welsh devolution

Last week, Changing Union published a short but sweet report authored by Prof. Roger Scully entitled "Attitudes of Young People towards devolution". You can read it in English here (pdf) and Welsh here (pdf).

There's a Click on Wales piece from one of Changing Union's co-ordinators, Lleu Williams, and a post on Cardiff University's Elections in Wales blog from Prof. Scully himself, challenging some of the headlines resulting from this. It's perhaps been overshadowed by the Silk Commission poll - more on that from Syniadau.

The Findings

The report compares data relating to two age groups across a few different surveys : 18-35 year olds ("young voters") and over-35s.

• Both age groups broadly support more powers for the Assembly or the status quo, with the young more likely to support the status quo and older voters further powers.
• Support for both abolishing devolution and independence fell sharply in both age groups since 1997. More over-35s prefer scrapping devolution (~17%) compared to 18-35s (12%).
• A majority of older voters think the Assembly has the most influence over decisions in Wales (55%) compared to the young (41-42%). 20% of young voters "Don't Know", compared to less than 10% of over-35s.
• A majority across both age groups believe the Assembly ought to have the most influence over health, education, policing and criminal justice, with stronger support amongst older voters.
• Similar percentages across both age groups support tax powers for the Assembly (~37%).
• There's greater support for more powers - and significantly greater support for independence - amongst both age groups in Scotland compared to Wales. The percentage of "Don't Knows" with regard constitutional choices is similar in both countries across both age groups.

The Conclusions

The report's obvious one is that there's "lower levels of engagement amongst the young", reflected in "lower rates of voter turnout" and "less certainty" in their views on devolution. We knew that anyway, it's a long-standing problem.

There are other conclusions too. Based on policy influence preferences - and backed by the Silk Commission poll this week - there's strong support for further Assembly powers across the board, falling short of independence, with little appetite to turn back the clock. That hints that the Assembly has "established itself" as an institution.

On the lack of enthusiasm for devolution amongst many young people, The Western Mail's reaction was slightly hysterical. Support for independence is softer amongst the young than you might expect, but clearly there in abundance in the case of further powers.

It makes sobering reading for both devo-abolitionists, and nationalists who support independence like myself. Both groups are significantly out of step with public opinion - but I guess we knew that anyway. Unlike devo-abolitionists though, I think those of us in the latter category can live with a more powerful Assembly. If nationalists play the long game, we'll win.

A lot's been said about "what" and "how" on youth apathy, so I think it's worth turning to the "why". For once, I speak with a little authority as I fall within that "young voter" category.

Getting to know "Generation Y"

To understand why "we" (18-35 year olds) aren't bothering with politics, it's worth understanding what Generation Y - roughly those born between 1980-1999 - are like as a whole.

Vain – We're often dubbed "narcissists" and "entitled". I don't think that's necessarily true, but we are image conscious and individualistic. We think we need to be seen to live a certain lifestyle. We like to brag, and feel smug about making surface-deep "right choices" in clothes, lifestyles, technology etc. In politics, this translates into backing popular and charismatic individuals over parties.

Insecure - Unless you're settled with a decent job or family, the vanity hides an insecurity. We've taken the biggest hits from the recession. We're not going to get the same levels of retirement support as our parents and grandparents. Also, as a whole, we're trying to find a sense of generational purpose, with many living an extended adolescence. We might feel let down by politicians/politics, considering we've been guinea pigs for many of their reforms to schools, universities, housing and the economy - especially from the Thatcher and Blair years.

Mobile – We lack real job security so tend to change employer often. We travel more, and are generally (but not always) more willing to live in rented accommodation for long periods. We still have "roots" as that's a Welsh characteristic, but we don't live by it. We like flexible working, doing things on the move, and we don't sit down to watch the news or read newspapers. Everything is instant, and we're – on the whole - uncertain decision-makers because we're constantly bombarded with information in our jobs and free time.

Tech-savvy – "Nerd" and "geek" are more positive labels than they've been in the past. We live a lot of our lives through the internet, gadgets and mobile phones. It makes us think we're all connected and "social", but it hides a loneliness too. This doesn't mean we're good at science and engineering either, it just means most modern technology is user-friendly. Modern politics isn't.

Time rich, cash poor – One of the reasons I'm doing this blog is because it's free. People my age are rather boring, unlikely to produce any great counter-culture, adopt "retro" trends because we lack originality, all whilst focusing on someone else's idea of style over our own creativity. Politics is seen as highly-focused and intensive, and not something worth bothering with unless you have ambitions of actually becoming a politician. There are plenty of other things we can do with our time.

Politics without ideology – Perhaps by being the first post-Cold War generation we see politics as a series of "issues" and "causes" that need fixing rather than a clash between left and right. People still fighting the Cold War at this age – as I once did – stick out like a sore thumb. We're mainly socially liberal, so don't tolerate "bans" and "restrictions", but more ambiguous on economic policy - perhaps even slightly conservative. If we vote in larger numbers as we get older, we're going to be a politician's nightmare as we'll be impossible to please.

Why might some young voters blank devolution?

You can picture the youth of Wales getting as excited about a referendum
for the National Assembly to vary income taxes by 10p, can't you?
(Pic : salon.com)

We've been let down too – Younger people are as likely to be dissatisfied with how Welsh devolution turned out as older people. Bungs like tuition fee changes, EMAs and apprenticeships will only go so far. We're concerned with bigger issues like health, education (if we want to have children of our own) as well as things like transport and the economy.  We just won't admit it, as we know we won't be listened to - which can be very embarrassing seeing as we're adults.

We didn't vote or campaign for devolution, it's just "there" – Today's 35 year old would've been 19 at the time of the 1997 referendum. Today's 18-24 year olds will barely remember the time before devolution. I'd only just turned 13, and I don't recall if I had an opinion on it. Today's Wales was born from 60s and 70s activism, so younger people won't share a similar "spiritual/emotional connection" to devolution as those who campaigned for or against it. To us, it's a national institution that we grew up with in the background. It's nothing special, sacred or unique. Nor is it an abomination that undermines traditions.

We don't understand it – This shows up in the report as a high percentage of "Don't Knows" on the question of the Assembly's levels of influence and constitutional preferences.

That might be because young people are - like some older folks - unclear on what the Assembly does and what its powers are. Those things are hard to explain to audiences who lack any pre-existing political interest or knowledge. It's still - despite the 2011 referendum - quite technical. The Assembly might not be considered powerful enough to get too interested or involved with, whilst there's also the problem of the Assembly not being "seen" full stop.

It's boring, and any coverage we do get is cynical - Politics is supposed to be boring as that's how mistakes get ironed out. With many distractions, it's hard to get passionate about law-making, committee reports and public service performances.

For example, the Assembly's integrated transport inquiry was excellent and I think I did an OK job of whittling 60-odd pages to under 2,000 words. I received ten times the focus for a non-story about hotels a few weeks later.

Consider yourselves "lucky" I still cover things like laws, policies and committee reports. If I were dependant on maintaining regular high levels of interest, I would've dropped them and concentrated on character assassinations, conspiracy theories and gossip. That's clearly where interest lies, except the problem is that none of that stuff is "politics" nor actually relevant to anything.

We're disenchanted with politics - It's more correct to say young people are "disenchanted" (disappointed with what it is) rather than "disengaged". We do get excited about "single-issue causes" and "grand issues",  just not traditional party and institutional politics. That's probably for the same reasons as older people, or we grew up with such a cloud of cynicism hanging over politics that we just absorbed it as we got older.

The only "grand issue" in Wales is never-ending constitutional masturbation surrounding the Assembly's powers. I've said it several times, but even I don't get excited about that. I consider it tedious, bordering on an insult to our intelligence. We will be back here again and again and again until we have parity with Scotland at least.

We didn't get that in 1997. We didn't get it from the Richard Commission. We didn't get that in 2006 or 2011. You can see that I don't have high hopes for Silk.
It could all be done in 3 years, but we'll be waiting 30.

That's one reason why I would describe myself as "disenchanted". Ask others my age, and you'll probably get hundreds of different reasons.

We're under-represented – This is our own fault for not voting in large numbers, not registering to vote and not standing in elections. However, that's mainly because of disenchantment, lack of interest and seeing it as something for aspiring "career politicians", not ordinary people. I hardly know anybody my age – internet aside - who's a member of a party, movement or an active member of a trade union. Based on Welsh demographics, the Assembly should have at least 9 AMs aged 35 or under. There's one.

What can be done?

 Generation Y's politicians will think of it as a career - not a public service - and will
be thin on the ground. We may as well accept it, as it's better than nothing.
(Pic : British Youth Council)

Not much if I'm completely honest. But there's hope.

It's unscientific, but my Facebook page reach (those who see the posts) hints that the majority (66%) of this blog's readers are – bucking the trend – aged between 18 and 44 (those aged 25-34 the biggest subgroup) with a roughly 55-45 split in favour of men. Page "likes" are similar in terms of demographics, but with an one-sided 80-20 split in favour of men.

I'm not surprised that it's mainly "the boys" who will openly admit to reading/liking this blog, and I suspect 90%+ of the people who leave comments are male too. However, I'm glad women do see/read it as I hope it's seen as relevant to everyone.

I suspect many are political anoraks, activists or party workers in some shape or form. So there is interest amongst young voters, the problem's that they're likely in the "political bubble" anyway.

We have our youth parliamentary organisation – Funky Dragon – and many local councils have youth councils and mayors. That's fine, but I don't think going out and "nagging" young people to be interested in politics and devolution "for their own good" is going to work.
The single biggest fix is more young candidates in "proper government", not farmed off into "yoof parliaments" and student councils. Bridgend, for example, elected at least three councillors aged 35 or under in 2012 : Luke Ellis (Lab, Pyle), Ross Thomas (Lab, Maesteg West) - who's since become Mayor of Maesteg - and Hailey Townsend (Lab, Brackla). So it can be done organically without any positive discrimination.

Of course, those of us interested/involved in politics are going to say it's the most important thing in the world. If politicians and outreach workers are struggling to make it sound relevant and interesting, then the simplest answer is that Welsh politics just isn't relevant and interesting full stop.

Welsh politics is, quite often, painful to follow for its grinding processes and limp outcomes - not the performance of politicians themselves, who I don't have a issue with and who have a tough enough job as it is. They can only work with what they've got and can't perform miracles.

One day, those currently aged 18-35 are going to inherit the country. You better be damned sure we're interested enough to care, or there'll be a vacuum and I dread to think what will fill it.

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Whipperines & Class Clowns

I'm on a "break" of sorts, mainly because there's not much to write about. I still have big posts to come before Assembly returns from recess though.

I'm working on a "little something" for September. I think most reading this will be interested, you'll just have to be patient and hope I don't suffer a mental breakdown in the next few weeks. "Stay tuned" for that - hint, hint.

There's a bit of Assembly-related news from last week, with the Children & Young People's Committee publishing a report into their attendance and behaviour inquiry (pdf).

I would've normally glossed over that, but because of the "lull", I decided to take a closer look and it threw up some interesting evidence and conclusions.

There were 12 recommendations, summarised as :

• The Welsh Government should develop new frameworks and strategies relating to attendance and behaviour, and should investigate bullying's links to poor attendance.
• Improvements to teacher training, with "evidence-based" behaviour management training as part of their ongoing professional development.
• Explore the possibility of delivering services relating to educational welfare and behavioural support at a regional level.
• A rejection of fines for parents of persistent truants, based on evidence presented against that measure which the committee received.

Whipperines : School Attendance

Although the stereotype is of feral youths who don't want to learn,
cited causes of truancy include bullying, home problems and
difficulties with lessons.
(Pic : Daily Post)

If pupils don't go to school regularly, they don't attend lessons, they don't get homework and so they don't learn anything, setting them up for failure.

Absenteeism in schools is described as "stable", with unauthorised absences running at roughly 0.6-1% since 2002-03. Absence rates are used to determine school bandings (My Local School), so rates have improved since banding was introduced.

During the inquiry's focus group, the main reason for unauthorised absence given by pupils themselves were bullying or a general "lack of desire to attend school". Boredom during lessons and difficulties with schoolwork were also cited, along with home life problems like caring for relatives and drugs. They called for more understanding about their individual needs instead of a "one size fits all" policy.

Specific problems with attendance were highlighted during the period between primary and secondary schools (ages 8-14) and it's said that this period is where pupil attainment "follows a downward trajectory".

One thing cited by Estyn as a successful way of reducing absenteeism amongst "difficult-to-reach families" are so-called "first day response" procedures, where schools contact a parent directly on the first day of any absence. The committee decided they want more evidence on the effectiveness of this approach.

There was evidence of a shortage of Education Welfare Officers (aka. whipperines) in Wales, or at the very least a "considerable variation in service between local authorities", hence the suggestion of a regional approach to use EWOs better.

The evidence presented against fixed-penalty notices for truancy introduced by Leighton Andrews (Lab, Rhondda) was brusque.

A school governors representative described the truancy fines proposal as "disastrous", for undermining the "good relationship between staff, parents and pupils." None of the witnesses are said to have supported it, and evidence presented to the committee pointed towards "reward systems" for good attendance rather than punishments.

The fines are set to be introduced from September 1^st and could be between £60-120.

Class Clowns : School Behaviour

Although permanent exclusions are becoming less common,
extreme behaviour is said to be becoming more common amongst
primary-age pupils and those with special needs.
(Pic : educationviews.org)

Good pupil behaviour is essential to ensure a decent learning environment for pupils, and enable teachers to get on with their jobs without having to deal with "distractions".

Pupils themselves agreed that : bullying, being disruptive in class, being disrespectful to staff, smoking and vandalism counted as "bad behaviour". They also agreed that bad behaviour from other pupils prevents them from learning. Suggestions to reduce bad behaviour included more outdoor and "fun" lessons, and more one-on-one time with teachers.

Fortunately, permanent exclusions are said to be decreasing, and currently run at a rate of around 0.7 pupils per 1000. The main reasons for exclusions are said to be assaults against staff or persistent "defiance of rules".

Less fortunately, "extreme behaviour" is said to be increasing in primary schools, with greater prevalence amongst boys and those with special needs (who made up to half of all exclusions in 2010-11).

With regard exclusions procedures themselves, there was worrying evidence that schools were "illegally excluding" pupils by simply telling them to stay away, without officially notifying parents/guardians of the exclusion (or presumably recording it). A 2007 report from the Children's Commissioner said that the practice was "widespread".

There was contradictory evidence regarding ongoing illegal exclusions, with the National Association of Headteachers saying they would be "surprised" if the practice was still happening in 2013. Meanwhile, SNAP Cymru – a children's charity - claimed they had worked on 92 cases of illegal exclusion, including one highlighted case where a pupil with Asperger's Syndrome was asked to take an "early holiday"  during an inspection period.

AMs themselves have come across similar cases through their constituency work, but there was little official evidence of the practice. That's perhaps for obvious reasons - schools want it hushed up, and it's off the official record.

For those who are excluded, or moved to out-of-school Pupil Referral Units (PRUs), Estyn said specialist teaching staff at these institutions were "well trained and confident" about working with troubled pupils. However, there were issues regarding the management of individual pupil's needs. Teaching unions called for a "properly resourced national network" of PRUs.

PRUs based within school sites are said to be too old in terms of facilities. Also, some pupils ending up in on-site PRUs for long periods instead of returning to normal classes.

In terms of the wider issue of education for excluded pupils, education is still compulsory for them, and they're entitled to 25 hours per week, starting within 15 days of exclusion. SNAP Cymru say this simply doesn't happen, and excluded pupils are "lucky to get 5 hours a week"- if that. It's usually then left to parents.

The introduction of trained school counsellors is said to be important, with a "positive impact on attainment, attendance and behaviour" amongst children who've received help.

One other big issue raised was that of parental attitudes towards punishments. There are varying levels of engagement and support, with some parents outright refusing to support any measures taken against their children, or unwilling to accept any wrong-doing. This usually results in lengthy compromises instead.

Conclusions

It's a basic duty of every parent to make sure their child behaves themselves at school and attends regularly. It's disappointing to read that some parents don't accept their little angels might not be the cherubs they think they are, but it's not a surprise unfortunately.

As you can tell by the tone of the language used in the report, this was unusually critical of some aspects of the Welsh Government's approach and policies here.

The headline-grabber was the rejection of truancy fines. It was clearly part of Leighton Andrews' more aggressive approach to driving up standards, but it remains to be seen if that's going to be Huw Lewis' style. With only a few weeks until the fines are set to be introduced and regulations drawn up, time's running out for the Education Minister to pull the plug if he's convinced by this report.

The warning is that several perfectly good things Leighton did during his tenure could end up being overturned if a u-turn here encourages teaching unions to press for more policy reversals.

I believe fines are appropriate with regard persistent truants, but only when all other options have been completely exhausted. I don't like reward schemes, as pupils shouldn't be "bribed" to go to school, as it could teach them that they should expect prizes for doing something they should be doing anyway.

On school behaviour, the "illegal exclusion" issue borders on scandalous. That could be in part because schools have become so wound up about inspections and bandings that they might feel the need to shunt misbehaving or difficult pupils out of sight. It could also be that headteachers and local authorities are just too damned lazy to sort out the core problems themselves. It's one area where the "Third Sector" should perhaps become more involved in if individual schools can't cope.

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Cry 'Haggett', and let slip the blogs of war

                              

I have to apologise first of all. On Monday, I incorrectly described the Ynys Môn by-election as a "contest" and a "two horse race".

It was, in fact, a "curbstomp". If it were a football score, the result would've had to have been given in brackets. There was only one horse, racing against some garden gnomes and cabbages. Rhun ap Iorwerth wins. Fatality.

It's a humiliating result for Welsh Labour, who sent several big guns from Cardiff over the last few weeks - including the First Minister. While Tal Michael is - on paper - as high-calibre a candidate as it gets Labour wise. They were very close to finishing third behind UKIP.

To put the cherry on top, Plaid also held two council seats in Caerphilly by comfortable margins.

Plaid's campaign was intensive and positive, coming across like a cheesy US presidential run and I found parts of it rather amusing (in a good way). Plaid should invest in Factor 50 next time (that's not a Wylfa joke).

Rhun has all the professional credentials to be an excellent successor to Ieuan Wyn Jones. I wish him the best and I'm pleased Plaid have spared us a Labour majority. I suspect I'll be covering many more positive stories involving Rhun from the Senedd over the coming years.

You know where I'm going next because of the blog title. If you've had enough I suggest you stop reading now. I'm posting this at a relatively early time because I want to help draw a line under things, but I'm not doing so without raising some concerns of my own.

Yes, it's time to turn to this week's big talking point on the blogopshere – highlighted by A Change of Personnel, Borthlas, Inside Out, indirectly by Blog Menai, Ifan Morgan Jones & Hogyn o Rachub - though I thought it best not to comment until after the by-election.

Bloggers usually only make the news when we've done something naughty.

I doubt Michael Haggett (MH) of Syniadau is flavour of the month within Plaid at the moment, finding himself up Shipton Creek. The Snitchfinder General grilled his more critical blogs for The Western Mail days before the by-election, drizzling it with the obligatory anonymous sauce.

I guess you're expecting me to join the chorus of outrage against Michael for attempting to undermine a crucial by-election - and the sterling efforts of Plaid activists who travelled from across Wales to campaign for Rhun - which under a slightly different set of circumstances could've played a role in handing Welsh Labour a Senedd majority.

Nah.

Syniadau : The (Nuclear) Free Radical

Far from being a Brutus, Syniadau's Michael Haggett has played Mark
Antony to the Cleopatra of idealised Plaid rules and core principles, ultimately
crushed by the party hierarchy's Octavian quest to win. And what a win it was.
(Pic : bellaviae.com)

I have to be a little bit critical of course, so I'll get that out of the way. I think some of Michael's language and timing was brazen. Even I was taken aback, and any anger from Plaid for that reason - but that reason alone - is justified.

Now that that's over with....

MH had two primary concerns.

Firstly, the issue of Rhun ap Iorwerth's selection. I didn't think there was anything wrong. Any party would jump at the chance for someone well known to run for them, especially journalists as they both walk the walk and talk the talk.

However, Michael had a point on IWJ's decision to resign immediately which changed the dynamic a lot.

I'm presuming that's because Rhun had to declare his intentions immediately - due to his former job - so the Plaid higher-ups thought, "A well known local journalist would like to run for us in a constituency where personality matters a lot. Let's start immediately to catch the other parties off guard! #ymlaen"

In political strategy terms, that's pragmatic, sensible and perfectly legitimate.

The trouble is that Heledd Fychan cancelled her candidacy bid in Arfon just beforehand in order to run in Ynys Môn having been a long-standing member. Meanwhile, usual candidacy rules were suspended under "extraordinary circumstances" (being an impartial BBC journalist) to allow Rhun to stand.

It's that circumventing of usual selection procedures that wound MH up. He believed similar with regard Angharad Mair before, so MH is being consistent about "ringer" candidates, and I don't think this was ever about Rhun himself.

What's done is done, and this was a distraction from the bigger, more important issue of Plaid's energy policies.

MH is vehemently anti-nuclear and it's a blue touchpaper issue for him, having blogged in detail in favour of renewables. Plaid voted its "total opposition to the construction of any new nuclear power stations" in 2011 and MH strictly interprets that to mean none whatsoever.

Interpreting "new" as meaning "new sites" lets Plaid off the hook, as Wylfa B could be interpreted as expansion of an existing station. Plaid can therefore support Wylfa B, whilst appearing to oppose nuclear power in general – a politically dangerous position of trying to be all things to all people.

MH was fine with a position that opposes Wylfa B outright - in line with the agreed Plaid policy motion - but as long as it were to be built (in the absence of devolution of energy) then securing local jobs should be the top priority. Rhun ap Iorwerth said something similar on his campaign site in relation to the jobs.

MH seemed happy with that, but neither Rhun nor anyone else in Plaid were making their position clear on nuclear energy or Wylfa B itself, trying not to draw attention to it.

Then Rhun did – saying he supported it outright – the complete opposite of MH's interpretation of Plaid's own policies.

I can understand why MH would've been angry with that as a grassroots member holding his party to a democratically agreed policy. Add MH's antagonism towards the selection process and you're building up a (somewhat justified) head of steam.Ynys Môn needs jobs and investment, so Plaid are going to do everything they can to support those efforts, the most eye-catching proposals being Wylfa B and the science park.

It's realpolitik. Plaid's job is to win elections as much as pushing their long-term political goals. But those long-term goals - including a coherent energy policy - have to be set in stone otherwise there's no point in having a party, it may as well be a collection of Independents.

Judging the behaviour of some Plaid politicians down the years, that's what they appear to be, dropping core policies whenever they feel like it, as has happened in other parties and even ministers. Michael had enough and saw red.

Plaid are, by some way, the best of a bad bunch. But there've been plenty of examples in the past (and more recently) of : ruthlessness, ambition trumping ability, lack of respect or loyalty for sitting leaders, anonymous passive-aggressive briefings against fellow party members, backbiting and muddled policy development.

For all the sunny logos and smiles, they're no angels.

The internet's double-edged sword

I don't bother politicians or activists directly, demanding retweets or whatever, because I believe they're busy enough without having to babysit me.

Whenever they retweet or repost a blog on social media under their own steam it's always appreciated and flattering. I go all bashful because they've acknowledged my existence and I hope I'm being helpful in some way - but I know not to expect more than that and it's the limit of my influence.

Online support can help publicise party initiatives, explain/promote new policies or promote candidates during internal and external elections etc. All that can be shared on social media to reach as wide an online audience as possible.

The same thing goes for criticism and internal arguments.

However, you won't get any acknowledgement if you're critical, no matter how well-reasoned you are. That's understandable as nobody likes to hear bad things about themselves, but as long as it's about policy, not personality, they should probably note it.

If a politician or activist notes concerns in the street or via e-mail, it probably feels more "real" so it's treated more seriously.

You publish it on the internet, it could be read by hundreds, sometimes thousands, before it even reaches the target - including opponents and journalists.

You would therefore expect parties to want to nip online criticism in the bud ASAP – especially from their own members and prominent bloggers like MH - by addressing concerns directly as they would any other member of the public.

However, whenever MH has been critical of party or policy he's been brushed off, or in the case of the selection process dubbed a pedant for trying to uphold his own party's rules.

Also, I'm sure if someone in Plaid outlined their official nuclear policy on Anglesey to MH, he would've re-published it on Syniadau for people to debate, knowing the party hierarchy were taking his concerns seriously. He probably would've still disagreed, but he might've toned things down.

MH started off neutral, even complimentary towards Rhun when he announced his candidacy. He praised his "ambition for Wales and to stand as a candidate". It was only after his concerns on the nuclear issue were being brushed aside, and as he was leaned on to keep quiet for "undermining the campaign etc.", that his polemic became angrier. You can see it progress in his posts.

Politicians wouldn't dare snub a committed activist, regardless of where they lived or who they are. However, Plaid blanked their highest-profile blog, which has a readership in the thousands.

Bloggers aren't "influential" but can stick the boot in where it hurts – ripping apart policies and airing dirty laundry – made doubly worse when picked up by the press.

Michael presumably did so because he believed policies pushed during the by-election ran contrary to what his party stands for, and what they agreed in good faith with the rank and file membership.

His tone was ill-judged, but the principle was sound. You could even say he was taking a noble stand, exposing – as John Dixon said – major problems with Plaid's energy policies and how they're drawn up.

In some respects, this victory might've cleared things up. There won't be any "civil war" - it's just ended. The pro-nuclear lobby have won.

Because of this campaign, Plaid Cymru can only be considered a pro-nuclear party, and Wylfa B will have cross-party support in the Senedd. Nobody in Plaid - regardless of where they are in Wales, or how they voted in the policy motions - can backtrack on that position now without rendering themselves and the party a laughing stock.

Plaid/Nationalists dominate the online political scene in Wales because they were the first to adopt it as an effective campaign tool.

I consider Syniadau my single biggest influence, and MH's posts have been consistently high-quality and enlightening. Syniadau often acts as an unofficial forum for the Welsh nationalist grassroots and it's where I found many other blogs.

Plaid have taken that online support for granted, perhaps viewing people like Michael, maybe myself and others too, as nothing more than "useful idiots" when we're positive, and as loose cannons if we're even slightly "off message".

No harm was done at all. However, despite winning the by-election comfortably, I think Plaid (perhaps all parties) should re-evaluate how they interact with and treat their grassroots online – not just blogs, but social media - especially as the internet garners increasing influence down the years.

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Senedd Watch - July 2013

Owen : As you'll notice, I've switched from the default Blogger comments system to Disqus (notes available from Welsh not British) and I've updated the Comments Policy accordingly. This isn't because of any problem, I just thought it needed an update.

I have no issue with anonymous comments, and you can still leave them as either a guest or under the name “Anonymous”, but you need to provide an e-mail (which isn't revealed). You can also sign in to the system using Facebook, Twitter or Google+ too as far as I can tell.

• The Assembly's Public Accounts Committee report into civil emergencies recommended that some executive powers be devolved to the Welsh Government. It followed a critical report by the Wales Audit Office, which highlighted confusion between Welsh and UK roles during such emergencies.
• Education Minister Huw Lewis (Lab, Merthyr Tydfil & Rhymney) introduced the Education Bill, which will reorganise the General Teaching Council for Wales, makes changes to procedures surrounding post-16 education for special needs pupils, and give Welsh Ministers powers to set school holidays.
• The chief executive and acting chief executive of Caerphilly Council were arrested and bailed on suspicion of fraud. It follows an investigation by Avon and Somerset Police into pay rises awarded to senior council officers, which were criticised by both the Wales Audit Office and trade unions.
• The Assembly passed the Human Transplantation Bill on July 2^nd by 43 votes to 8. The Human Transplantation Act 2013 will create an “opt out” system for organ donation for Welsh residents, sets out arrangements for appointing representatives to make a decision on someone's behalf and defines “consent”. Health Minister Mark Drakeford (Lab, Cardiff West) said he was “proud” of both passing the Bill and the way in which the Assembly scrutinised it.
• The measles outbreak in the Swansea area – which resulted in more than 1,200 confirmed cases and one death – was declared over on July 3^rd. On July 9^th, it was revealed that the epidemic cost Abertawe Bro Morgannwg LHB up to £500,000.
• Opposition politicians criticised Welsh Government claims that the Welsh NHS had broken even, as £82million was brought forward from contingency funds to enable local health boards to meet their annual targets.
• The Information Commissioner upheld an appeal, requesting the Welsh Government release draft “Case for Change” report documents, which set out arguments for hospital reorganisations. Elin Jones AM (Plaid, Ceredigion), said it was a “victory for openness and transparency”. The Welsh Government said they withheld the documents because resources were increasingly diverted towards media management. Peter Black AM (Lib Dem, South Wales West) described it as a “nonsense excuse”, proving that Welsh Ministers thought they were “above scrutiny”.
• Minister for Food & Natural Resources, Alun Davies (Lab, Blaenau Gwent), said he would work to create a “transparent and fair” farm subsidy system in the wake to reforms to the European Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). Welsh Lib Dem leader, Kirsty Williams, said cancelling the Tir Mynydd scheme in 2012 had “put farmers at a disadvantage” compared to the rest of the UK.
• A redacted version of the Jillings Report – not previously published - into child abuse in north Wales care homes was released on July 8^th. It revealed “extensive abuse” from the 1970s through to the 1990s, described as “bestial”. It resulted in at least 12 deaths, five convictions and highlighted significant failures in police and staff investigations.
• Health Minister Mark Drakeford announced that ambulance services would be commissioned by local health boards in future, in response to the McClelland Review into the Wales Ambulance Trust earlier this year. He also announced that NHS budgets would be reviewed to prevent care and mortality scandals.
• Business Minister Edwina Hart (Lab, Gower) announced that several road projects were to “progress” - including the Cardiff Eastern Bay Link - subject to finance. Meanwhile, Finance Minister Jane Hutt (Lab, Vale of Glamorgan) said Severn Bridge tolls could be used to finance the proposed M4 Newport bypass.
• A Beaufort poll for The Western Mail found that more Welsh voters would vote to leave the EU than stay – by 37% to 29% - with the rest undecided or uninterested. A referendum is expected in 2017.
• PCC Alun Michael (Lab, South Wales) called for the devolution of policing and criminal justice to Wales, describing the current arrangement as “de-facto devolution”. He echoed comments made by the First Minister about devolving policing as part of the Silk Commission.
• A land deal between the Regeneration Investment Fund for Wales (RIFW) and South Wales Land Developments was referred to the Serious Fraud Office. It follows an initial complaint by Byron Davies AM (Con, South Wales West), and subsequent Wales Audit Office and Welsh Government internal investigations.
• The Standards Commissioner – Gerard Elias QC – published his annual report on July 15^th, calling for AMs to behave better in their private lives, following high-profile censures of Assembly Members during the past year.
• The Assembly's Local Government Committee report into home adaptions for the elderly & disabled described current arrangements as “bewildering” and means testing as “complex and unfair”. They recommended a customer charter and that the Welsh Government set minimum standards.
• Alun Davies announced that the “True Taste Awards” - which recognised good quality food – were to be scrapped and replaced for not having enough “positive aspects”. The Minister will launch a review on a new brand, which would "place a distinct emphasis on Wales".
• Housing and Regeneration Minister, Carl Sargeant (Lab, Alyn & Deeside), lowered housebuilding carbon emission reduction targets – due to come into force in 2014 - from 40% to 8%. It's claimed the reduction would save £4,000 on the cost of a home. Environmental campaigners were said to be “gobsmacked” and questioned the Welsh Government's commitment to sustainable development.
• On July 17^th, the National Assembly approved the Agricultural Sector Bill. It'll create a new panel to replace the Agricultural Wages Board, which was wound up by the UK Government in June. On July 2^nd, the Assembly approved a government motion that it should be treated as “emergency legislation”. On July 9^th, the Assembly approved the general principles of the Bill. A Jocelyn Davies AM (Plaid, South Wales East) amendment to scrap “zero hour” contracts in agriculture was rejected, drawing condemnation.
• The National Assembly entered summer recess on July 19^th, remaining so until September 23^rd 2013.
• Sports Wales chief, Prof. Laura McAllister, warned that Wales' Olympics legacy was threatened by budget cuts to local authorities. There are indicators that participation has increased by 30-40% in some sports, but Prof. McAllister highlighted the need to match sports budgets to health and education.
• Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) into Wales rose by 191% in 2012-13 according to UK Trade & Industry – a performance described as “sparkling”. 67 projects creating or safeguarding more than 6,500 jobs. The First Minister said the figures were “extremely encouraging” but warned against complacency.
• Leader of the Opposition, Andrew Davies (Con, South Wales Central), called for an inquiry into neglect at two Abertawe Bro Morgannwg LHB hospitals, after an elderly patient was left dehydrated - subsequently dying - after receiving treatment at both. The cause of death relayed to the family was also different from the post-mortem results. The LHB accepted the criticisms of the Public Services Ombudsman and paid the family £1,000 in compensation.
• Plans for a £280million motorsports complex in Blaenau Gwent were approved by Blaenau Gwent councillors, but were put on hold by the Welsh Government for further consideration to determine if it should be called in. Natural Resources Wales expressed concerns about the impact on the environment, but supporters claim it could generate up to £50million per year for the local economy.

Projects announced in July include : A personalised support programme for 5,000 people as part of the Welsh Government's Tackling Poverty Action Plan, approval for a £13.4m replacement for Afan Lido in Port Talbot, plans for a £33million agri-research centre in Aberystwyth, a £1.2million grant scheme to part-fund the costs of bovine TB vaccinations and the launch of an express bus service between Cardiff city centre and Cardiff Airport.

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All eyes on Môn Mam Cymru

Assembly by-elections are rare, and Ynys Môn's this Thursday – prompted as you know by Ieuan Wyn Jones' resignation to head the Menai Science Park – is the first since Trish Law won Blaenau Gwent as an Independent in 2006.

The by-election itself has been covered extensively by Blog Menai in particular; also Syniadau, National Left, Click on Wales, Ifan Morgan Jones, Inside Out and Politics in Wales.

The candidates lining up to replace Ieuan Wyn Jones are :

• Rhun ap Iorwerth (Plaid) – Former political journalist. Former presenter on Radio Wales, Radio Cymru and of S4C's Newyddion.
• Steve Churchman (Lib Dem) – Local councillor in Caernarfon, Gwynedd. Former Westminster candidate in both Barking (1992) and Dwyfor Meirionnydd (2010).
• Rev. Neil Fairlamb (Con) – Rector of Beumaris. Stood in the May local election and finished 6^th of 9 candidates.
• Nathan Gill (UKIP) – Formerly ran a care home business. Stood in the May local election and finished 8^th of 9 candidates.
• Kathrine Jones (Soc. Lab) – Stood in the Gwynedd council elections in 2012, winning 31% of the vote in a two-candidate seat.
• Tal Michael (Lab) – Policy consultant. Former chief executive of North Wales Police Authority. Unsuccessfully ran for North Wales Police & Crime Commissioner in 2012.

What are the likely issues?

I can't comment on local nuances, so I'm looking at this more from a general perspective.

The island's economy – Anglesey remains one of the least productive parts of Wales in terms of GVA per capita. Will the voters reward Plaid/IWJ for getting the Menai Science Park on the agenda as part of their budget deal? Or will they go down the "sending a message to Westminster" narrative, perhaps boosting Labour's chances?

The mothballing of Anglesey Aluminium has probably been a bigger economic and productivity blow to Anglesey than anything before or after it, including....

Wylfa B – This could cause problems for Plaid due to their confusing stance of supporting Wylfa B for local economic reasons, but opposing nuclear power elsewhere. Syniadau's coverage of this issue might appear to be slightly contrarian, but I think he's right in principle.

There were hints from Blog Menai that Wylfa B
hasn't been brought up often on the doorstep.
(Pic : anglesey.info)

This is going to be a decision taken by the UK Government, so Labour don't have much leverage either – though they likely will in 2015. Could that open the door for the Tories? I presume the main issue here surrounds securing as many local (construction and operation) jobs as possible, and deciding whom would be in the best position to press for that.

The construction jobs will be gone once the plant's completed – and will likely be carried out by contractors experienced at building nuclear plants, probably French - while the net-gain in jobs will be around 200. So, the economic case isn't exactly brilliant in the long-term, while the energy case isn't even there at a Welsh level as North Wales exports more energy that it uses already. Jobs are jobs I suppose, but we can probably do better than this.

Stability on Anglesey Council – Anglesey Council has hopefully moved on from its period of destructive personality politics, and the humiliation of being directly ruled from Cardiff. Labour have influence in the council, but they don't have the numbers and are very much second fiddle to the four Independent groups. Plaid have the numbers, but can only scrutinise and have limited influence in Cardiff Bay. Who would be best placed to keep the council in check as a local AM?

Agricultural Reforms – Ynys Môn is Wales' "breadbasket" with some of the highest concentrations of high-grade farmland in the country, and an important player in the Welsh meat and dairy industries. Issues like CAP reform will disproportionately affect Anglesey more than many other parts of Wales. Moves like the emergency Agricultural Sector Bill – and Plaid's attempt to remove zero hour contracts - might've played well to a large chunk of the island for different reasons.

Will north follow south in the rail electrification stakes?
(Pic : The Mirror)

Improving access – There've been outline plans to improve/widen the Britannia Bridge since 2007, removing a pinch point on the A55. There's also the question of pressing for electrification of the north Wales mainline, the proposed reopening of the railway serving Gaerwen, Llangefni and Amlwch to passenger services and the expansion and retention of services from Anglesey Airport.

Hospital and social care services – Anglesey doesn't have a district general hospital, and is reliant on Ysbyty Gwynedd for acute care. Current hospital reorganisations are going to affect the island like the rest of Wales, with the general trend being to close or downgrade some community hospitals – and there are at least two on Anglesey. Betsi Cadwaladr LHB were recently ripped a new one over their management of health services.

There's also been a controversial review of residential care homes on the island, with the possibility of closures, centralisations or a shift to social enterprise provision. Compounding this issue, Anglesey has seen amongst the biggest increases in the proportion of people aged over 65 in the 2011 census. Anglesey Council are due to make a decision this autumn.

Summer party poop

It's being (fairly) described as a "two horse race" between Plaid Cymru and Labour.

I'm not going to focus on how Plaid or Labour selected their candidates as I don't think either party did anything too controversial. You could see Tal Michael standing for Labour coming a mile off, and urgency was perhaps used as cover by Plaid to rush through a candidate with stature – even if they had at least two such potential candidates.

Plaid have – as you might expect – gone hard to retain the seat, with many visits by the top brass over the last few weeks, aided by the weather. They seem to be quietly confident, and are "getting a good response". I take pronouncements like that with a pinch of salt, but my gut instinct tells me it's probably correct. As I pointed out though, they've left open goals due to confused policies – which has always seemed to be a problem with Plaid due to their left-of-centre, "broad church" makeup. That's something I've often dubbed "Plaid's Paradox" of being both electable and unelectable at the same time.

Despite their poor showing in May, Labour have been taking this seriously (though perhaps not seriously enough) with the First Minister visiting the island several times. A working majority – which recent polling suggests might come in 2016 anyway - would prove incredibly useful for the remainder of the Assembly term, and would render the Plaid-Lib Dem budget pact largely useless just weeks after it was announced. That would be huge in political terms, so you've got to wonder why nobody seems too bothered?

The Conservatives had a miserable local election in May. However, they have an ability to pop out of nowhere on Anglesey, more famously Paul "The Druid" Williams in 2011, in addition to Peter Rogers in 2003 and (as an Independent) in 2007. They should be preparing themselves for disappointment due to the effect of UK Government policies, or at the very least aiming to finish above UKIP.

You would expect Anglesey to be fertile ground for a populist, anti-politics party like UKIP. However, when you think "UKIP", the first thing that comes to mind is "anti-EU". The second thing is "anti-devolution". They've campaigned (in Wales) so hard against the Assembly, they've backed themselves into a corner. There are eurosceptics across the political spectrum, but I'd imagine a large chunk of UKIP's Welsh base consists of what's left of the hardcore anti-devolutionists.

Doing an about face is strange, and I suspect potentially damaging to UKIP in Wales – the signs of a split are already surfacing - even if it's a more pragmatic stance. I think they'll do better than they did in May but nothing more than a distant third/fourth. Next year's European elections will be more important to them, I'd expect.

For the Lib Dems and Socialist Labour, I suspect it'll be a case of trying to retain their deposits.

The big issue will be how many people bother to vote – I'd guess turnout will be a rather low ~35-40% – and that might aid Plaid, especially in the absence of a strong Independent candidate. Or, as others have said, voters could equally punish Plaid for prompting them out of their homes in the first place.

You've got to say that Plaid should hold the seat as long as they continue their momentum from the local elections. I think we'll all be surprised if they didn't, and it would be a story in itself.

Having said that, I don't think Plaid should get over-confident, and still need to get their vote out. I wouldn't be surprised if Labour come an uncomfortably close second (within 2,000 votes compared to 2011), possibly making Ynys Môn a hotly-contested seat in 2016....or simply off the back of a low turnout.

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WAG End of Year Report Card 2013

School's out for summer, so it's report time.
(Pic : BBC)

Barring unforeseen circumstances, the Assembly's in recess until September 23^rd. So it's worth taking another look at how I think the Welsh Government and opposition leaders have performed over the past year.

Because of the March and June reshuffles, I've altered this compared to 2012 to grade whole departmental performances (where applicable), as it's unfair to judge ministerial performances off four months of work (or three weeks).

Carwyn Jones (Lab, Bridgend)
First Minister

C+ domestically, B externally

The overall impression is - "Better than last year".

Carwyn continues to talk some sense on the bigger issues, including the fall out from Scotland's independence referendum. His problem's that nobody's listening. It doesn't matter that bloggers care, or articles get posted on Click on Wales. Until Ed Miliband and David Cameron take notice, then talk of grand constitutional conventions is moot.

On the "domestic" side of things, I'd echo what the IWA said about "patchy" performances. "Treading water" is the best description for how Welsh Labour have gone about things for the last 14 years, and this year's no exception.

The decision to buy Cardiff Airport stands out as particularly brave, proving the First Minister can shift when he wants to.

The only thing that's reflected badly on Carwyn personally this year was that ridiculous S4C badger row. I can't think of much else aside from performance - and that's not entirely his fault, even if he's the "face" of it. There's how he handles FMQs, but that's probably how he naturally does it. I don't think it's worth reading too much into the chaos at the end of this term either (for the moment).

Leighton Andrews (Lab, Rhondda)
(Former) Minister for Education

B (A for effort)

Considering it's only been three weeks since his resignation, it's fair to give Leighton the "credit" here. His resignation will be the biggest political story in Wales this year, for good reason.

It's hard to question his determination. In many ways it was refreshing and commendable. Leighton clearly wanted to get to grips with school standards, and – in principle – the new literacy and numeracy framework is a good idea. It's just a question of rubbing teachers - who actually have to work with his ideas - up the wrong way .Though it's traditionally taken very little to annoy them, they might have a point this time around.

He seemed obsessed with mergers. I don't see what the point of much of that is as it doesn't seem to make much difference other than rebrandings and governance changes.

The underlying fact remains that school standards are stagnating. Reforms take time to filter through, though. His halo slipped due to matters outside his brief, but you couldn't knock the effort.

Edwina Hart (Lab, Gower)
Minister for the Economy, Science & Transport

B

I think lessons have been learned from that Green Investment Bank bid, so I'll move on from it now, but I'm always going to believe that AMs never looked into that debacle properly.

Some of the policies developed - life sciences in particular - have the potential to be exciting in the long-term, and a model that could be applied to other parts of the economy. Edwina's taken to this role better than I was expecting, but questions remain about the overall performance of the Welsh economy, as well as high youth unemployment. That's a burden shared equally between Cardiff and London.

Overall, I'd say Edwina's doing a decent job and seems to enjoy it. For Sêr Cymru and its related fund (which is starting to bare fruit), the trade trips, and actions like the SME finance report, I'm going to be kind. I think transport infrastructure needs to be Edwina's priority in the coming 12 months.

Jane Hutt (Lab, Vale of Glamorgan)
Minister for Finance

B-

Another solid performance whilst enduring difficult financial circumstances. Jane's been a competent and fair Finance Minister so far. It's just a question of how long she'll be able to put off the inevitable slashing of funds to local authorities, and what discomfort the Plaid-Lib Dem budget pact might cause later this year (depending on the Anglesey by-election result). My only complaint would be about where the money's going – I don't think enough capital spending is heading towards "hard infrastructure".

Theodore Huckle QC
Counsel General

C

One of the roles of the Counsel General is to ensure legislation falls within the competence of the Assembly. The Welsh Government were proven right on the Byelaws Bill, but it should never have gone that far in the first place.

There were more problems caused recently, with the Electoral Reform Society raising concerns about the clarity of law-making powers. That's nothing to do with him, more the devolution settlement, but as I said at the time, I don't think he's being properly utilised by AMs as a whole - with the notable exception of Simon Thomas AM (Plaid, Mid & West Wales).

Reshuffled Departments

Health

E

"In a critical condition." The Human Transplantation Act is a major initiative by itself, and I think the handling of the measles outbreak was spot on. Mark Drakeford (Lab, Cardiff West) has also shown promising early signs. The compliments end there.

The McClelland review was faintly damning, but even more damning was the 7-8 years of Welsh Government inaction in response to previous reviews. Some parts of the Welsh NHS, like A&E departments, are buckling under the weight of demand because many of the Welsh Government's key public health messages – like "Choose Well" – aren't getting through, in addition to chronic recruitment problems.

Hospital reforms have come ten years too late, and are showing signs of possibly becoming a major public policy bungle – not because of the proposals themselves, but for how its been handled. If these reforms fail, and enough people question if Labour can be trusted with the Welsh NHS, it'll be a game-changer.

There've been nauseating levels of hypocrisy from some AMs, who seem to support government health policy in the chamber – or say nothing at all - then openly/subtly oppose it outside. If they can't set out their own case, why should any of us listen to them? That goes for opposition AMs too. They're probably doing more damage to themselves, collectively, than they realise.

Local Government

C-

The Local Democracy Act is limp, and the only major change – STV for local elections – was subsequently killed off, though the opposition did get the local authority bigwig salary panel in there. Huge mistakes were made in changes to council tax benefit at the end of 2012 too. The Welsh Government also come across as having a weak leash when it comes to dealing with local authorities themselves, and when it comes to enforcing their own orders.

One thing I will say, is that local government settlements have been generous. That's probably going to change next year. Plus there's the elephant in the room regarding reorganisations of services or local authorities themselves. Lesley Griffiths (Lab, Wrexham) has shown early signs that she might be the right person to deal with it.

Culture

C

Not much has happened here, to be honest. The Welsh language question should've been put to bed now. However, there's more question marks following the census results. I think there's also been a failure – so far - to properly capitalise on the success of the London Olympics, and an Assembly committee is looking into that AFAIK.

One good thing is that museum attendances are up, but that's matched by general falls in arts participation. There's also the long-standing issue about the media, in particular the future of Welsh newspapers and S4C's independence. For pity's sake, don't launch another inquiry! More from me on that in September (hopefully).

Housing & Regeneration

C

A mixed year. In terms of the good, you can point to the recent renting white paper. You can also point to increased capital spending on housing, and a commitment to a public-private approach to things like regeneration and renovating housing stock. Schemes like New Buy help prop up house prices and create a bubble, so I think the Welsh Government were right to pull the plug. However, the Lib Dems have a right to be miffed.

In terms of the bad, there's the bubbling RIFW scandal – that's still yet to be properly cleared up. I also think many of policies here are stuck in a certain way of thinking and aren't radical enough, bordering on defeatist and undermining the supposed commitment to sustainability.

Communities & Tackling Poverty

C-

Credit needs to be given in the area of community safety, but until criminal justice powers are in the hands of Welsh ministers I'm not going to give Labour too much credit.

Like the economy, there are underlying performance issues. Poverty levels haven't improved, and it looks like the target to eliminate child poverty by 2020 is going to be spectacularly missed, maybe even heading backwards.

Once again it's a burden shared between Wales and the UK, with the main policy levers – like welfare - resting in London's hands. They (Westminster) haven't helped themselves with their decisions over the last few years, notably the "Bedroom Tax", some aspects of Universal Credit, and disability welfare reforms carried over from the previous Labour government.

Food & Natural Resources

C

A mixed bag, verging on disappointing.

Welsh Labour delivered a major manifesto commitment through the creation of Natural Resources Wales, but it's low hanging fruit and unlikely to make too much of a difference, even if it's a logical administrative choice. With significant energy powers missing, this portfolio seems rather weak - farms, fields 'n' trees.

Alun Davies (Lab, Blaenau Gwent) has been doing a very good headless chicken impression – in good and bad ways. I think the Agricultural Sector Bill was the right thing to do overall, but there've been some big chinks in his armour due to his handling of the cold weather back in March/April. I think farmers have a right to be angry about that.

Junior Ministers

Gwenda Thomas (Lab, Neath)
Deputy Minister for Children & Social Services

C+

The Social Services and Well Being Bill is the most wide-ranging and complicated piece of legislation passing through the Assembly since the 2011 referendum. It's also been incredibly troubled at many points. Managing that Bill - as well as various care reviews - through the Assembly counts as an achievement in itself. The whole thing seems to have been incredibly stressful for Gwenda Thomas herself, consultees and the other AMs dealing with it. A safe pair of hands.

Jeff Cuthbert (Lab, Caerphilly)
(Former) Deputy Minister for Skills

C+

I've been pleasantly surprised. Jeff's been more visible over the last 12 months, and has subsequently been promoted. The review of qualifications was fairly comprehensive, if a bit of a missed opportunity, and he's also overseen an expansion and focus on apprenticeships and technical qualifications. Not a bad job, overall, but he's taken a big leap by being moved to Communities & Tackling Poverty, which – as I've said – is a difficult portfolio to manage without any significant powers. I'm not sure if it was the right thing to do (creating that cabinet position in the first place).

Opposition Leaders

Andrew Davies (Con, South Wales Central)

C

Better than last year, it's fair to say. I was getting worried, but I think Andrew's found his feet as leader at long last. You get the impression his party are trying to become a bit more populist than the traditional Welsh Tory stereotype of grumpy farmers and bland, grey accountants.

Having said that, they remain hysterical and ineffectual as a group, despite individual AMs punching above their weight. Labour can afford to ignore them, while Plaid can out-campaign them. They've probably been the most vocal on hospital reorganisations, and NHS in general, but haven't offered anything remotely palatable in terms of their own changes. Fines for missed appointments? Reintroducing prescription charges? Talk about missed open goals.

Leanne Wood (Plaid, South Wales Central)

B

I can't pinpoint anything Leanne Wood's done wrong so far. Plaid are starting to make (slow) progress and got a decent result on Anglesey in May – albeit not the final outcome they would've wanted. I think the new backroom staff deserve credit, as there's the impression of a growing can-do spirit. They seem sharper in terms of policies - and pointing out failures - without being chopsy. They're a lot more practical than they've been in the past.

My only concerns would be confusion surrounding nuclear energy policy – which is causing them problems - and a lack of detail when announcing their own proposals.

Needless to say, Leanne is the de facto opposition leader at the moment. It's been a more than promising first full year for her personally - I think she's matched what I said during the leadership election about a "progressive popular front"  and a "Welsh politician people will want to be seen with" perfectly. But there's clearly still work to be done by Plaid as a whole. My gut instinct tells me the coming year is going to be tough, but manageable.

Kirsty Williams (Lib Dem, Brecon & Radnor)

C

Kirsty's always had a level of visibility and vitality – and to be honest, she's always been a pretty good leader too. However, I think that effect has been neutralised somewhat by Leanne Wood, and there are hints that she might not be enjoying life in the Senedd anymore.

The Welsh Lib Dems have frustrated. One moment they'll make the usual good contribution - I think Eluned Parrott AM (Lib Dem, South Wales Central) has been excellent in particular. The next they'll big up some insignificant concession they get in Westminster. They - or one AM - briefly showed a cruel/calculating side too, but I won't go into that to save those involved embarrassment.

I've been struggling to think of any mark they've made at the Cardiff end of the M4. They were clowned by Carl Sargeant pulling the plug on New Buy, and increasingly look and feel like they're becoming an irrelevance. I don't think things are that bad for the Lib Dems or Kirsty Williams....yet. They need to do some soul searching and ask themselves what their party's actually for.

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