Williams Commission : Council shake-up revealed

Arrivederci, Anglesey! Bon voyage, Bridgend!
Local government in Wales is due to undergo reforms following the
publication of the findings of the Williams Commission.
(Pic : Bevan Foundation)

It was the worst-kept secret in Welsh politics, but....

Yesterday, the first of the "big commission reports" of 2014 was released. Chaired by former NHS Wales Chief Executive, Paul Williams, the Commission on Public Service Governance and Delivery has proposed a near-halving of Welsh local authorities, an overhaul of management training in the Welsh public sector, and changes to some aspects of funding and scrutiny.

Local government reorganisation is something many have anticipated for a long time in their own nocturnal commissions; waking up at the very thought of it feeling all sticky and warm.

As regular readers will know, last year – about a month before the Williams Commission was established – I outlined my own thoughts on local government reform, coming up with :

• Scrapping community councils , replacing them with ~300 "cantrefi" run via a form of direct democracy.
• Bringing back up to 30 of the pre-1996 districts, granting them powers over "small ticket" local matters (development control, licensing, leisure etc.) and headed up by directly-elected mayors, in turn scrutinised by significantly smaller councils.
• The creation of at least 4 provincial/regional assemblies, with many public bodies - like local health boards - folded into them and made democratically accountable. They would take responsibility for running "big ticket" items like health services, policing (if devolved), strategic planning, fire services, social services, education, National Parks etc.

As the great and the good are now questioning the impact of the Commission's proposals -  whether it will disengage people from local democracy, and whether the proposed local authorities will be too large for local issues, but too small to cover health and education - it was a wasted effort, I suppose. I'm only a blogger, after all.
The full report is available here (pdf), but it's a whopper, coming in at over 350 pages. I'm basing most of this post off the summary report, which is "only" 105 pages long (pdf).

To the lay person, the report itself - even its summary - will be impenetrable, full of public sector buzzwords (step-change, sustainability, delivery, resilience, partnership, collaboration, tackle etc). I realise it was always going to be, though as a result this is a long post.

Before you complain or leave, summarising the review's details in 3,000-odd words this soon was hard work and nothing short of miraculous. Don't thank me all at once.

The Challenges

The review didn't stop and start at local councils, but
included other public bodies like local health boards and fire authorities.
(Pic : BBC Wales)

The Commission highlighted three key long-term challenges facing public services in Wales : austerity, demographic change (resulting in more people reliant on public services) and higher expectations from the public in terms of performance. They outline that there's an increasing "funding gap" that could last until the mid-2020s.

The Commission believe that to meet these challenges, and more, "some structural changes are....necessary and urgent. But they will achieve nothing without changes to governance, scrutiny, accountability" etc.

The first issue was complexity. If you want an idea of how complicated current governance arrangements are in Wales, take a look at the "accountability map" provided (pdf). They say this isn't "unique to Wales", and that new bodies have simply been created as new policies have developed. The Commission even suggest that some complexity is desirable in the public sector because some issues can't be contained within single organisations. I'd say it's because of managers and third sector empire building in an attempt to make themselves "indispensable", so I'm not convinced of that argument at all.

Next, there's the issues of scale. The Commission say there are 935 public sector organisations in Wales - listed here (pdf) - one for every 3,200 people. Smaller organisations are said to face greater risks and costs, though that has no bearing on performance. However, smaller local authorities have problems in capacity (lack of resources), are unable to attract higher-calibre managers, spend up to £50 per person more in some areas compared to a larger authority and are disproportionately affected by demographic changes (Anglesey and Monmouthshire picked out specifically).

On the issues of governance, scrutiny and service delivery, the Commission believe current systems neither provide enough internal challenge, or respond to citizen's voices. Citizens aren't strongly engaged in scrutiny (I wonder why), and there's a culture of defensiveness in the public sector.

Next, the Commission turns to issues of leadership and culture in public services. They say there's an urgent need for an overhaul of leadership in the public sector; both in producing managers who can deal with uncertainties and in terms of greater collective responsibility. They go as far as to suggest a "new type of leader is necessary", as current quality of leadership is inconsistent. There are also long standing problems with "silo working", parochialism, short-termism and lack of innovation (explored more in Wales : State of innovation?).

Finally there's perhaps the biggest issue of all - public service performance. The Commission believe performance is directly-related to all the other issues above, which creates a "public sector that's....not performing as well as it needs to." Performance is patchy and poor compared to countries of a similar size, with few improvements over time across education, health and social services. The Commission believe lessons should be learnt from services that have performed well – for example,  fire services and recycling, where Wales excels compared to the rest of the UK.

Their overall conclusions were summed up as :

• The Welsh public sector is too complex and crowded to cope with the pressures placed on it.
• Many public organisations in Wales are too small, placing them at severe risk of governance failure.
• Organisations are slow to respond to pressure for change, and internal governance arrangements are inadequate.
• The culture in the Welsh public sector isn't well-suited to face challenges.
• Public sector performance is "poor and patchy", and inadequate in the face of the big challenges ahead of it.

The Recommendations

"Scrutiny should be valued" was a key recommendation - a message
that falls on deaf ears in Welsh local government at present.
(Pic : Broken Barnet)

There were a total of 62 recommendations, which I'll summarise by theme.

Reducing Complexity

• Simplified funding arrangements - focusing on achieving outcomes, with funding based on whether policies actually deliver or not.
• Review legislation to ensure it streamlines public sector decision-making.
• Community Health Councils should ensure the concerns of patients are at the heart of governance, and should scrutinise objectively, with the Welsh Government expanding their remit to include advice and advocacy roles, reinforcing their independence from Local Health Boards.
• National Park Authorities should collaborate with each other, with the Welsh Government co-ordinating and providing national-level leadership. Local authority members to National Park Boards must represent wards within the National Parks.
• Fire Authorities should be reconstituted to scrutinise Chief Fire Officers, and the Chief Fire Officer should be legally responsibly for planning, managing and delivering fire services. Fire Authorities should also scrutinise joint-working between fire and ambulance services, raising the possibility of new bodies to scrutinise all emergency services – subject to devolution of the relevant powers.
• Local authorities and local health boards should prepare plans to integrate their services. Specifically, Powys Council and Powys Local Health Board should fully merge, with the Welsh Government legislating to bring that forward.
• The Welsh Government should legislate to merge Cadw and the Royal Commission on Ancient & Historical Monuments (recently rejected by the Culture Minister).

Increasing Scale and Capability

• Current local authorities should merge into larger units of either 10, 11 or 12 local authorities (I return to this later).
• Arrangements for mergers must be agreed by Easter 2014, with the process completed by 2017-18.
• Some community and town councils should be merged, while local authorities should adopt a neighbourhood management approach to identify and help deal with community issues.
• The Welsh Government and local authorities should review regional delivery of public services, and figure out which changes are no longer needed as a result of the recommendations above.
• The four education consortia should be aligned with the proposed local authorities.

Improving Governance, Scrutiny and Delivery

• Scrutiny should be valued by all people involved in public services – including officers and elected members. Decisions should be publicised clearly and invite scrutiny.
• Local government scrutiny committees should engage more with the public, including the co-option of people from advocacy groups.
• Auditors, inspectors, regulators etc. must report directly to the relevant scrutiny committee.
• Council Leaders, especially where it's unclear what they stand for (i.e. Carmarthenshire and Pembrokeshire style "Independents"), should produce a written manifesto and present it to the full council, with an annual statement of progress towards achieving its aims.
• The Welsh Government should review independent appointments to Local Health Boards by December 2014, while LHBs themselves should review their own scrutiny and governance arrangements.

Improving Leadership and Changing the Culture

• The Commission propose the Welsh Government establishment a public service leadership and development centre, owned by, and accountable too, the Welsh public sector as a whole, funded by contributions and charges.
• It should replace Academi Wales, be outside of the Welsh Government, would "bring together the best leadership programmes" and provide training. It should be established by the end of 2014-15.
• The Welsh Government should consider the creation of an Appointments Commission to fill senior public sector leadership positions.

Improving Performance

• Performance measures should be based on effectiveness of policies/outcomes, not on efficiency of services. Performance criteria should be clearer and more distinct.
• Performance should be driven forward – based on the success of recycling – by changing delivery practices and through public awareness campaigns.
• All public bodies should engage with staff to aim for continuous improvement and the intelligent use of information.

The Commission recommend the Welsh Government start work on addressing these issues "immediately", lasting 3-5 years, and in collaboration with public bodies. They also recommend the Welsh Government maintains a register of all public bodies in Wales.

The Main Event : Local Authority Reorganisation

Many people might question the need to reform local authorities, especially as other countries have smaller local authorities which produce better outcomes. The Commission justified their proposed changes to local authorities, in response to that, because "policies differ from one country to the next".

If I'm honest, that was a little non-sensical and the Commission didn't properly explore the reasons why different local government arrangements work. I bet they didn't because if they did, two-tier authorities would come out on top. That would be a little "too radical".

As for the proposed changes themselves, the new local authorities should be co-terminus with (can't cross) :

• the European Union NUTS2 regions (East Wales & West Wales and Valleys) due to how EU funds are distributed – the gerrymandered and artificial "Rich Wales" and "Poor Wales".
• local health board areas
• police force areas
• the four education consortia areas

Here's a map of the proposed 12 local authorities, with their populations as listed in the full report :

The headline recommendation for local authority reorganisation
- to be in palce by 2018
(Click to enlarge)

Apart from a merged Gwynedd & Anglesey and a stand-alone Carmarthenshire they would be identical to the EU's NUTS3 areas.

The Commission included a scenario of 11 local authorities – where either Carmarthenshire, Ceredigion and Pembrokeshire merge; or Bridgend, Swansea and NPT. A scenario of 10 local authorities includes both those mergers.

If the headline option of 12 local authorities is implemented, and based on a presumption that a cap of 75 councillors would be in place, the total number of councillors in Wales would fall by 370 to 894 (p320 of the full report).

A few of these proposed local authorities cross fire authority boundaries, especially in the Swansea area (NPT is Mid & West Wales, Bridgend is South Wales). So fire authorities, regional transport consortia and police forces would probably need  moderate reorganisations too.

The inclusion of Carmarthenshire as a stand alone authority seems odd (more from Y Cneifiwr). Pembrokeshire-Carmarthenshire would be a more natural merger - if unpleasant for anyone living in either Democratic People's Republic - or even the proposed reincarnation of Dyfed.

We can now look forward to the bun fights over where they should be based and what they should be called. That's unless they're going to do something monumentally stupid, like moving council meetings between two or three grand, fully-maintained civic centres in a manner as wasteful as the European Parliament.

Then there's all the other "little problems" to iron out :

• Council tax and business rate arrangements, plus the formula used to determine the annual settlement. An equalised NPT-Bridgend council tax bill could mean a tax rise for Bridgend residents and a tax cut for NPT residents (p320 of the full report).
• How much will it cost? The WLGA say £200million, with a potential 15,000 redundancies. The Williams Commission say £100million, with savings of between £60-80million per year afterwards. That's before you add issues relating to pensions and job evaluation.
• The status of local development plans and housing projections. There's good cause to rip both up as the dynamic would change dramatically.
• The status of existing joint arrangements and collaboration, like between Bridgend and Vale of Glamorgan for civil parking enforcement, and possibly other things in future.
• The certain need for another local authority ward boundary review and significant reduction in the number of councillors, plus dealing with the opposition - from within Labour in particular - this will create.
• Will it actually improve services? We don't have a clue, and won't know until afterwards.

There's no problem with 12 unitary authorities, as I see it, providing there was; a proportional voting system for local elections; a review of council procedures and practices to ensure service delivery is scrutinised properly; and the option of directly-elected mayors to provide more accountable leadership and replace chief executives. We didn't get any of that, so there are issues with these proposals - speaking personally - but they'll have to do.

Also, it'll be politically difficult to get this process completed by 2018.

I doubt every AM will agree on this for a start. It looks like the Welsh Conservatives are leaning towards opposing this if it costs a significant sum of money (notwithstanding the fact they'd never run a Welsh local authority alone again under these boundaries). Plaid Cymru and the Lib Dems are both cautious and lukewarm, while former Swansea Council leader, Mike Hedges AM (Lab, Swansea East), has often spoken against reorganisation. That's before you factor in councillors too. Angry letters from Blaenau Gwent inbound.

The familiar droning chorus of the good ol' Welsh moan at any change to the status quo has already begun, while this will inevitably cause a period of uncertainty for local government employees - precisely what they don't need right now.Meanwhile, getting local authorities to agree on mergers by this Easter seems optimistic, bordering on an attempt to rush things - which would be dangerous. That's unless some of this was agreed informally beforehand and the whole process was used to support a pre-determined conclusion. Nah, that wouldn't happen in Wales, would it?

Wales being Wales, this could get very nasty, very quickly and requires a strong arms at the top. The Local Government Minister, Lesley Griffiths (Lab, Wrexham), better start pumping iron.

Conclusion : Halfway there?

 Should it have gone further? Will it be watered down?
Let the games begin.
(Pic : Wales Online)

I'll admit it. After the initial coverage, I was expecting to go into this finding nothing but a fudge. I'm pleased to say that's not the case.

There are a lot of good proposals in relation to measuring progress, scrutiny and leadership. There's also a comprehensive analysis of the current issues and problems facing Welsh public services. However, it only went halfway to where it should've been.

That's not the Commission's fault. On the contrary, whenever this happens – like Silk I, Holtham and Richards before it, presumably Silk II too - I'm more annoyed that we waste the time and talents of those involved.

The Commission were given a remit that sounded broader than actually it was, and too little time to do a "deep review". This process should've lasted 2-3 years and been Welsh local government's equivalent of the Richard and Holtham Commissions combined.

Subsequently, this barely scratched the surface. Merging local authorities is a slightly lazy conclusion. However, it was the absolute maximum the Commission could realistically propose - minus a wider mandate.

The best single idea to come out of this is the creation of a public sector leadership centre. Possible collaboration between fire and ambulance services, as well as intergration between social services and health, also sound interesting and could have a big impact on service delivery.

However, for all the focus on delivery and management, there's very little in the way of absolute changes. It's more a shopping list of, "It would be really nice if local councils did X,Y,Z" - basically telling councillors, managers, board members, officers etc. to do things they should've been doing in the first place.

In the long-term, these proposals will lead to fewer managers, fewer councillors, fewer chief executives and generate migraines for local government administrators.

All current problems regarding delivery will persist, just in new branding. We'll settle back into "old ways" as soon as the dust settles, because this review didn't look at what local authorities should do, or what level is appropriate for service delivery, just some aspects of the how.

I'll stick my neck out and predict, firstly, that there'll be a struggle to hit the 2018 "deadline". This Welsh Government are small-c conservatives who don't have the cojones to do anything this drastic (by their standards), and despite the language of determination coming from Cathays Park, might find opposition from within local government too much to handle. We'll need a new generation of ministers and AMs with few ties to local government to push it through.

Next, I predict we'll get a watered-down version – a compromise of 16-18 local authorities - where only the smallest local authorities, or those persistently in special measures, will merge with larger neighbours (Merthyr, Anglesey, Blaenau Gwent etc). We'll still get the inevitable harumphing from councillors and officers in the Welsh press, but it'll keep costs and redundancies to a minimum. We'll lose under 100 councillors, which won't spook the parties too much.

Any compromise will be justified on cost grounds, following successful lobbying from various public bodies, WLGA and the bigger local authorities in the south and west. We'll still have 900+ public bodies, and we'll return to this again in 15-20 years time, because simple mergers won't solve the complexity problem and won't improve scrutiny.

They correctly saw what the problem was, they formed a committee, they chickened out of making the big calls.

"How Wales works" in a nutshell.

Read More

How local is "Local TV"?

Bids have been submittted for all of Wales' "Local TV" stations.
Schwing.
(Pic : dvdactive.com)

The first city-based local TV stations were launched on Freeview in the UK towards the end of 2013. One of the first was Hull and Grimsby-based  Estuary TV, and local TV is coming to Wales this year.

As I mentioned last September (Broadcasting Wales IV – Wales on Television), the idea is that local TV would provide a commercial means by which local programming and news could establish itself. That's in the light of cutbacks to such programming on existing commercial broadcasters like ITV. It'll be part-backed by £25million in licence fee funds, in addition to advertisements.

I quite like the idea, though I have concerns about the long-term viability of local TV stations. Many previous "restricted service licence" stations in the UK - including the likes of Capital TV in Cardiff, or Channel M in Manchester - have closed down having not made much of an impact.

Wales was divided into four (AFAIK) local TV areas through which Ofcom would issue licences. Made in Cardiff won the licence for the Cardiff area and is due to launch services soon. BBC Wales reported last week that bids have been submitted to Ofcom for the other three Welsh licences, after initially attracting little interest.

Party Time! Excellent!

1. Cardiff Bid

Made in Cardiff was the first successful local TV bid in Wales.
(recombu.com)

• Made in Cardiff (licence awarded Sept. 2012)
• Indicative schedule (pdf)

Made in Cardiff will broadcast from the Wenvoe transmitter, covering Cardiff, Vale of Glamorgan, Newport, Bridgend and will probably be picked up in parts of the south Wales Valleys. Locally-produced news is said to be at the heart of programming, but they also intend to cover sports in the area other than football and rugby.

There'll be programming dedicated to the Cardiff cultural scene; including nightlife, events and music. A weekly arts programme called "Cool Cymru" will be in Welsh with English subtitles. "Cardiff Talks" will focus on civic life and local politics, with a panel discussion. There'll be two 30 minute news programmes each weekday night and hourly programmes at the weekend.

The original launch date was March 1^st 2013, but it's been pushed back to this year, though the exact date remains unclear.

2. Swansea Bids

The Swansea station would broadcast from the Kilvey Hill transmitter, covering Swansea, parts of Neath Port Talbot and Llanelli.

• Bay TV Swansea
• No indicative schedule provided.

The station would only broadcast during weekdays, at least initially. Their programming would include shows about local history and local sport (the latter they say will "feature heavily"), culmanating in a one hour sports show on Friday nights. A live debate show would launch in the second year, and in the third year they would move to week-long schedules.

By the third year they intend to broadcast up to 25 hours of local programming a week. News would be a rolling 15-minute bulletin, with additional 15 minute bulletins at lunchtime and a hour-long local news programme in the evening. They also plan to introduce programming specifically aimed at Welsh learners, while some news and features would be in Welsh (unspecified). The target date for launch is 1^st September 2014.

• Love Swansea
• Indicative schedule (pdf)

Love Swansea will be a sub-department of the Engage4Life company, and the station head will be former Welsh rugby international and broadcaster, Robert Jones.

News would consist mainly of a rolling RSS feed, with more formal 30 minute and 15 minute bulletins in the evening. This RSS feed makes up most of the daily schedule, with "live" programmes shown during evenings only. They intend to host a 90-minute sports phone-in on Sunday mornings. "A Week Ahead" and "A Week in Swansea" will be their flagship current affairs programmes.

Love Swansea say they want a specific science and business feature show, perhaps in association with Swansea University, and a show called "Hymns and Arias" will feature local church services. Citizen journalists will be provided with training and equipment to bring them stories. Again, the target launch date is 1^st September 2014.

Mold Bids

Bay TV Liverpool are bidding for both north Wales licences.
(Pic : digitalspy.co.uk)

• Bay TV Clwyd (subsidiary of Bay TV Liverpool)
• Indicative schedule (pdf)

This service would run from 7am-10:30pm on weekdays and 10am-10pm at weekends, broadcast via the Moel-y-Parc transmitter, but with the station itself based in Liverpool.

They say it'll "not be viable to create enough programmes locally to fill content", so most of the schedule is identical to Bay TV Liverpool, with a few half-hourly opt-outs per day, mainly local arts and cultural programming. They say their sports focus will be on the Liverpool and Manchester football clubs, because "in general, football supporters in North Wales are more interested in the success and failures" of those clubs, though they'll include coverage of local sports teams, like Wrexham.

Current affairs will feature during the news programmes. There's also a commitment to running 30 minutes of Welsh language programming a week, and a commitment to providing Welsh-language subtitles and a bilingual website. The prospective launch date would be 1^st October 2014.

• Serch TV Mold
• Indicative schedule (pdf)

Serch TV would run from 7am-11pm seven days a week. Most of the programming consists of local news updates, with opt outs for local cultural shows. There are two political shows, "One Voice" - which I presume is a panel show - and "Local Views Debate". It'll also include some non-local programming bought from the rest of the UK.

The studios will be based in Flintshire, but the station will use facilities at Glyndwr University and in Chester. They say they'll consider programming in other languages, with English subtitles, "according to market demand". The prospective launch date would be 1^st December 2014.

Bangor Bid

• Bay TV Gwynedd (subsidiary of Bay TV Liverpool)
• Indicative schedule (pdf)

The service is identical to Bay TV Clwyd, listed above, except broadcasting (presumably) from the Llanddona transmitter on Ynys Môn.

How local will your local TV station be?

Both Swansea bids are based in Swansea. With the exception of Serch TV, the north Wales bids are franchises of the Liverpool-based Bay TV, which won the bid for the Liverpool local TV service in February 2013.

It looks like the south of Wales will have genuinely local TV stations, but the north is going to get short-changed. If Bay TV win both bids, the North Walian stations will be colonial acquisitions of the Scouse Empire. "We're not worthy", indeed.
It's highly likely Bay TV Liverpool submitted bids for the the Mold and Bangor licences to make their Liverpool offer look more attractive to advertisers due to the larger catchment area. Saying it wouldn't be viable to create enough local content for north Wales kind of undermines the whole point of local TV.

You can understand why these licences are being hoovered up by a handful of bigger companies, with local stations acting as franchises. I imagine it would be nigh on impossible for a stand-alone local TV station to be commercially viable, while centralising certain aspects – like advertising and programme purchasing – would create an economy of scale. Made in Cardiff is a subsidiary of London-based Made TV, for example.

Love Swansea and Serch TV sound more like social enterprises than commercial stations. The prospect of several hours of RSS feed (in the case of Love Swansea) doesn't sound promising, but it's practical.

At least they're based locally and headed up by locals, providing local job and training opportunities – though it seems across Wales only 50-60 full-time jobs would be created.

That's a shame, because I believed the UK Government and Ofcom were on to something here, especially if it developed into a US-style "public access" service.

Read More

Dr. Plaid's NHS Treatment Plan

Plaid Cymru recently announced ambitious plans to recruit an
extra 1,000 doctors - across all grades - over the next two Assembly terms.
(Pic : The Guardian)

Yesterday, Plaid Cymru's Shadow Health & Wellbeing Minister, Elin Jones AM (Plaid, Ceredigion), kicked off the new Assembly session by announcing the party's policy consultation on the future of the Welsh NHS.

The headline announcement was that a Plaid Cymru government would aim to recruit 1,000 extra doctors over two Assembly terms.

The consultation document itself is available on the party website.

As you know, the Welsh NHS – and UK in general – is under increasing pressure due to changes to training of junior doctors and shortages of staff in specialist areas.

This is one of the mains reasons given for the controversial hospital reorganisations taking place in Wales. The Welsh Government and local health boards justify it by saying that concentrating specialist services on fewer sites would improve the training environment for junior doctors, and allow patients to be seen more quickly by qualified staff.

Plaid have taken a different route, focusing on the staffing issue instead of the structure and configuration of hospital services themselves.

Specific problems facing the Welsh NHS

We're all aware of one of the big issues - shortages of specialists in departments
like Accident & Emergency - prompting current hospital reorganisations and downgrades.
(Pic : Wales Online)

The document lists a number of serious issues, which I'm sure everyone's aware of:

• The aforementioned problems in recruitment of specialist staff, with pronounced problems in : A&E, paediatrics, mental health, obstetrics/gynaecology and geriatric medicine. Wales currently has the third-lowest number of doctors per head in the EU, beaten only by Romania and Poland.
• Growth of more lucrative jobs in the private sector which attract newly-qualified doctors and consultants.
• Lack of opportunities for consultants to carry out research in Wales, and lack of allied life science jobs (i.e pharmaceuticals) in Wales for those who decide not to practice.
• Rural and sparsely-populated areas aren't seen as attractive places to pursue a medical career.
• Training opportunities in Wales have been ranked lowly, and trainees are "used inappropriately", covering hospital rotas instead of being trained.

A specific "ticking time bomb", and something that wouldn't be solved by current service reorganisations, is that Welsh GPs are ageing fast, with 20% of the GP and dental service aged over 50. BMA Cymru suggested in 2012 that in the south Wales valleys, up to 40% of GPs will retire over the next decade without replacements.

When it comes to the non-medical workforce (i.e nurses) the issue's said to be not lack of interest, but lack of posts due to cutbacks to nursing positions, loss of experienced nursing staff (to provide training to newly-qualified nurses), an ageing workforce (29% of Welsh nurses are over 50 - p5) and lack of professional development opportunities.

There are said to be no real problems in recruitment of allied health staff either, like health care support workers and physiotherapists, but due to staffing pressures they might be taking on too much too soon.

What do Plaid propose?

One of the headline policy options is to gradually wipe-out the
student debts of medical students who train in certain specialities.
(Pic : via thestudentroom.co.uk)

Plaid outline four policy "themes", each including more specific policy options.

Theme 1 – Financial incentives to retain postgraduates

The headline policy is to use financial incentives to encourage postgraduates to train in specialisms where there are shortages. Plaid would do that by gradually paying off medical graduates' debt (up to £75,000) for each year they train in Wales in a specialism suffering shortages. This approach has been successfully used in New Zealand, and a similar scheme during the One Wales government resulted in an extra 200 dentists being recruited.

Other options include:

• "Golden hellos" for hard to fill vacancies.
• Directly-salaried GPs in areas where they're of short supply.
• Free training in exchange for working in under-served areas – used in Canada and Norway - which Plaid estimate would enable the recruitment of 350 doctors over two Assembly terms.

Theme 2 – NHS Innovation

This part addresses lack of research opportunities and career development, as well as changes to aspects of NHS working practices. Options here include :

• Attracting extra research funding – All Welsh Government departments should make Wales research-friendly, UK Research Councils would be held to account for not funding Welsh research appropriately (Wales received around 2% of UK R&D funds in 2012-13) and establishing closer links between medical schools and hospitals.
• Mainstreaming clinical research within the Welsh NHS – Allow more clinical trials, especially those dubbed "real time trials", to be carried out anywhere using modern technology (i.e. specialist computer software). That means research wouldn't be confined to big university hospitals, but can be carried out at any hospital. An example's given where specialist research on respiratory conditions could be carried out at hospitals in the south Wales valleys, while rural health research can be carried out at the likes of Bronglais and Withybush hopitals.
• Merging health and social care – This "has been discussed for many years", and will be looked at separately as doctors have complained about "barriers patients face when accessing care".
• Paperless working – An example's given where paramedics fill out duplicate forms after responding to incidents, keeping them temporarily out of action. Investment in IT could enable them, and other clinicians, to work distantly across multiple sites. That means, for example, that small hospitals would have access to consultants without consultants physically being there, something trialled in Northern Ireland. It's said a reduction in paperwork could also be popular with NHS staff.
• Professional development of non-medical staff – This includes a separate "invest to save" fund for health to create specialist nursing posts, broadening the recruitment base so nursing isn't reliant on women, and investigating substitution of doctors by nurses on some rotas as part of an alternative package to service centralisations.
• Promote Wales – A no-brainer, and the Welsh Government are already doing some of this in the form of the Work for Wales scheme. This includes addressing negative stereotypes about Wales alongside promoting existing strengths, like existing centres of excellence (i.e. Morriston for burns treatment). The aim is to recruit an extra 50 doctors in one term through this method alone, and an extra 200 doctors in a second term.

Theme 3 – Doctor training and recruitment

• Expanding the number of places at medical schools in Wales, possibly making medical training free to Welsh-resident children in exchange for a minimum term of service in Wales upon graduation.
• Use of technology (as mentioned before) to allow things like distant learning at medical centres away from main teaching hospitals.
• Protected training time for trainee doctors, and requirements that health boards don't have rotas that are reliant on trainee doctors. Plaid accepts concerns from the Wales Deanery about training but believe their "hand was forced by the Welsh Government".
• Implement parts of the Greenaway Review into medical training, which could result in more "generalist" doctors being trained - who are competent across multiple disciplines - instead of specialists. Although specialists will still have a place.
• Quotas and bursaries for Welsh-speaking pupils who achieve the necessary grades to study medicine, ensuring Welsh-speaking doctors are still available in Welsh-speaking areas.
• Promotion of medicine and life sciences as career options, where talented children are encouraged to apply to study medicine. It also means promoting careers in life sciences in Wales for those studying medicine but who decide it isn't for them. Plaid estimates another 300 doctors could be recruited this way, based on a similar policy enacted in Scotland.

Theme 4 – International Recruitment

This is aimed at short-term staff shortages, and has traditionally been used to fill vacancies. Plaid believe recruits should be targeted from within the EU (taking advantage of freedom of movement), and some Welsh LHBs have already held recruitment events in Spain, Romania and Hungary. There's also the option of training doctors from the developing world on short-term contracts before they return to their home countries.

How much would it cost?

Plaid Cymru propose to - in part - pay for this via a 20p per litre levy on sugary drinks,
similar to those used in France, Denmark, Norway and Mexico.
(Pic : thejournal.ie)

Some policies could save money in the long run, like paperless working. Recruiting full-time medical staff would also reduce the current £60million bill for agency and locum doctors. The total agency bill once nurses and other staff are included is over £150million.

Obviously, the other policies would leave the Welsh NHS with a bill. However, current hospital reorganisations also cost money, as I pointed out last year, so are being done for policy reasons, not financial pressures as the result of "cuts from Westminster".

Plaid were smart enough to admit that costing an extra 1,000 doctors is imprecise because there are variable grades of doctor earning varying amounts of money and costing different sums to train. So to produce an accurate estimate, they used a median salary and – on the advice of the Assembly Research Service - added 20% to it.

The figure Plaid come up with was £65million, based on 100 extra consultants, 200 middle-grade doctors, 300 GPs and 400 juniors.

The costs of the student debt repayment plans, based off the New Zealand figures, would be £13.1million over a single term, assuming £52,500 of a medical graduate's average £75,000 debt was wiped out for 250 doctors.

Some aspects could be absorbed by the existing health budget, but – as you know – Plaid Cymru announced they're considering a 20p per litre levy on sugary drinks (~7p per 330ml can). It was originally flagged up by several medical organisations last year, and last November the British Medical Journal claimed it would be an "effective public health measure" that could reduce the number of obese adults by 180,000 across the UK (or a proportional ~9,000 share in Wales alone).

Plaid estimate this levy would raise around £60million. The more detailed figures they provided last November put the figure – based on current soft drink consumption habits – at between £61.2-72.8million. Plus there's the possible savings to the Welsh NHS and wider economy from reduced cases of diabetes, childhood dental problems and obesity in the long term.

If the numbers add up as intended (presuming Wales would have the power to introduce a sugary drink levy) then the policy verges on being cost-neutral, which – to be honest – sounds too good to be true. I'm also not sure if it includes the cost of all the other measures (some of which involve other departments, like Economy & Transport and Education), or is purely relating to recruiting the 1,000 doctors.

Conclusion : Interesting. Very interesting.

The policy proposals are credible and professional, but are unlikely to result in any u-turn
on hospital organisations. They do, however, offer an alternative to Labour's current plans.
(Pic : Wales Online)

Myself and others have been (rightly) critical of Plaid Cymru often blurting out policies without providing the underpinning evidence. Other opposition parties are just as guilty of that too, while Welsh Labour go in the opposite direction and drown you in management speak.

This is different though. It might not be perfect, but I'm impressed.

This should be the template by which Plaid announces their policies in the future. It's detailed enough without bombarding you with the unnecessary (as I might do) – 24 pages is a snip compared to the tomes that come from the Welsh Government. It's credible and professional. More importantly, the numbers seem to add up. Though any serious attempt to bring in a sugary drink levy might prove controversial.

The vitriolic response from Welsh Labour, none of which attacks the proposals themselves in any detail, proves Plaid hit a nerve. It's the reaction you would expect from a party and government under pressure on health and out of ideas. Their response can, therefore, be easily dismissed as a tantrum that adds nothing positive to the debate on NHS recruitment.

These plans really do need more detailed costings, and there are probably "hidden costs" Plaid have missed - IT projects are notoriously expensive, for one -  but the estimates are on solid ground as far as I can tell. Having said that, recruiting an extra 1,000 doctors across two terms perhaps sounds more straightforward than it would be in reality.

I don't think any of this dismisses the need for some service reconfiguration either, but it's clear Plaid have based this on evidence from those in the know and from examples elsewhere that have been proven to work.

If you were to sum up the overarching aim of this consultation it would be to reverse centralisation and downgrades of some district hospitals.

It's too late for that. It's as good as done. An announcement is expected any time soon on the final decision of the South Wales Programme, while it's highly likely at least three hospitals in mid and north Wales will be downgraded too. All that will happen before 2016.

But Plaid can at least, of the opposition parties, turn around and say in some detail, "This is what we would've done".

It's a clear alternative too.

Read More

Cold and drafty Wales Bill

The formal UK Government response to Silk I was laid in front of the UK Parliament
just before Christmas. What's proposed? And what does it  mean for Wales?
(Pic : Press Association via BBC Wales)

Back on December 18^th, the UK Government launched the draft version of the Wales Bill (pdf) – the "meat" of the UK Government's response to Part I of the Silk Commission (devolution of limited fiscal powers), but also including changes to the Assembly itself and how AMs are elected.

As it's a draft Bill, it could still significantly change between now and whenever the full Bill is introduced to the House of Commons. Pre-legislative scrutiny of the draft Bill, due to be undertaken by the Welsh Affairs Select Committee, started today.

So, as you might expect me to do, it's worth looking at the draft Bill in a bit more detail.

Taxation Powers

Subject to a referendum, Wales will have the power to vary income tax rates
for defined "Welsh taxpayers". However, are the powers functionally useless?
(Pic : The Telegraph)

The draft Bill proposes as follows :

Miscellaneous Taxes

• Enables the creation of completely new devolved taxes via an Order in Council.
• Removes existing stamp duty collection and management in Wales, granting the Assembly full powers to introduce its own land transaction tax.
• Ditto existing landfill tax collection and management, granting the Assembly control over landfill tax.

Welsh taxpayers

• Defines a "Welsh taxpayer" as someone who's resident in the UK, pays UK income tax, and meets one of the following criteria :
• Has a "close connection" to Wales (presumably as a permanent resident).
• Has no close connections with England, Scotland or Northern Ireland and spends most of the calendar year in Wales over other parts of the UK.
• Is an MP, AM or MEP representing a Welsh constituency.

Income tax referendum

• A referendum on income tax powers will be triggered when the Assembly passes a vote in favour of holding a referendum by a 2/3 majority.
• The Welsh Secretary will have 180 days from the moment a motion's passed by the Assembly, to present an Order calling a referendum to both Houses of Parliament for approval. The Welsh Secretary will also have the power to "veto" any referendum.
• In the event of a yes vote, an Order will be made by HM Treasury indicating when Welsh income tax powers come into force.
• In the event of a no vote, a referendum on the matter could still be called at a later date via an Order in Council.

Income tax powers

If there's a yes vote in a referendum, the draft Bill :

• Gives the National Assembly the power to set a "Welsh rate" of income tax for "Welsh taxpayers".
• Outlines that income tax powers would be similar to those coming into force in Scotland in 2016 (if they don't vote for independence), which will mean income tax rates in Wales will be lowered by 10p in the pound and the Assembly will then set a top-up Welsh rate. However, the tax is "lock stepped", meaning tax rates in different bands can't be set independently of each other. If income tax is raised or lowered by 1p, for example, it has to apply across all income tax bands.
• Outlines various mechanisms by which a Welsh rate of income tax would be collected by HM Revenue & Customs, how tax relief schemes would fit into it, and monitoring HMRC's performance in collecting a "Welsh rate" of income tax.

Borrowing Powers

Although still out for consultation, the new borrowing powers will
almost certainly be used to fund  M4 improvements in Newport.
(Pic : Sabre Roads)

The draft Bill :

• Changes the circumstances by which Welsh Ministers can borrow as set out in the Government of Wales Act 2006.
• Gives Welsh Ministers the power to borrow :
• to manage volatility in receipts and forecasts, where forecasts differ from incomes (revenue expenditure).
• to fund capital expenditure.
• Sets the borrowing limit at £500million for capital expenditure and £500million for revenue/current account expenditure. However, the borrowing limit can be changed by the Welsh Secretary up or down, subject to approval by the House of Commons.
• Repeals borrowing powers relating to the, now defunct, Welsh Development Agency (WDA) - though it doesn't affect any outstanding debts.
• Gives HM Treasury the power to set a cap on housing debt held by Welsh local housing authorities.

Changes to the Assembly

The "WAG" is dead. Long live the "WG"
- although it's already gone.
(Pic : NHS Wales)

The draft Bill :

• Increases the length of an Assembly term from four to five years.
• Will allow Assembly candidates to stand in constituencies and on regional lists at the same time.
• Bans MPs from being Assembly Members at the same time, except where there's a UK General Election within 6 months of an AM being elected an MP (which is unlikely).
• Formally changes the name of the "Welsh Assembly Government" to "Welsh Government" in the Government of Wales Act 2006.
• Places a duty on the Law Commission to provide advice to the Welsh Government directly, and also places a duty on Welsh Ministers to report any reforms in devolved areas proposed by the Law Commission to the Assembly.

Reaction and Conclusions

The proposals aren't that impressive, but one seemingly overlooked point could leave
the door open for Wales to create a completely new tax to replace stamp duty.
(Pic : The Guardian)

I'm not sure whether to call this an important law or not, as you probably know I wasn't impressed with the Silk Commission's recommendations anyway. This is an even further watered down version of that.

It's basically a transplant of some aspects of the Calman Commission's finding's. Silk I was a complete waste of time and effort by all involved, and even key findings of the Holtham and Richard Commissions have been effectively ignored.

I suppose it's a step in the right direction, but the powers – borrowing aside – are piddling. Air passenger duty (APD) has been taken off the table while, for now, there's no mention of non-domestic(business) rates – though I understand business rates will be devolved at some point.

By "lock stepping" income tax powers, any heady ideas Welsh parties had – including, ironically, the Welsh Conservatives – of creating a "dynamic low tax economy" have been blown apart.

Under these proposals, income tax cuts in Wales would be more expensive because changes will have to apply across all tax bands at the same time. The same goes for tax rises - so tax rises for top rate payers would have to be matched by tax rises for basic rate payers.

Andrew Davies (Con, South Wales Central) seems to have forgotten that, judging by his Click on Wales article today.

The income tax powers, as presented, are functionally useless as - minus an ability to set income tax rates in each band independently from one another - I suspect income tax rates would always be set in line with England to avoid scaring the flock.

Then there's the little matter of convincing Welsh Labour to support a referendum, and winning it off the back of such a mind-numbingly technical matter. As it is, I'd either abstain or vote no. A "hard nat" contemplating voting against further powers for the Assembly - that's how poor a deal this is.

Of course, Scotland wasn't bound to a referendum on Calman. They can ditch the patronisation of Westminster and get real fiscal powers by voting yes in September.

The borrowing powers are long overdue and give the Welsh Government some "grown up" responsibilities. It remains to be seen whether both governments are intent on splashing it up the wall building the Newport bypass, but presumably that's what the borrowing will be used for – at least initially.

The most interesting thing here though is that the wording appears to leave the door open for the Welsh Government to create any tax they want on property transactions – not specifically continuing with stamp duty.

Could that mean Wales could create a "Land Value Tax"? As has been mooted by several people, including Health Minister Mark Drakeford (Lab, Cardiff West)?

In terms of the timing, it might've been wiser to have waited until after Silk II, in order to create a new Government of Wales Act with any (potential) new devolved powers wrapped up in a single piece of legislation alongside these financial powers.

This could hint, firstly, that Silk II isn't going to propose anything significant in way of powers; or secondly, that any new powers will simply be devolved via Orders in Council or amendments to the GoW Act 2006. If we're going to move to a reserved powers model though - as many have called for -  I would expect it to require significant primary legislation in Westminster. Time's running out to get than on the table before the 2015 UK election.

The reaction's been muted. The Welsh Government described it as an "important step forward", though they were disappointed that APD wasn't devolved and that income tax powers aren't set out as outlined in Silk I.

As you might expect, the Conservatives and Lib Dems broadly welcomed it, though the latter less enthusiastically than the former.

Plaid Cymru's Westminster group say they'll try to amend the Wales Bill to ensure the full recommendations of Silk I are included, while Leanne Wood recently ruled out campaigning for a yes vote due to the "lock step" provisions which, as I've also said and has been mentioned on National Left, render the income tax powers useless.

The Institute of Welsh Affairs weren't impressed either. Lee Waters used relatively strong terms to – broadly speaking – dismiss the draft Bill as "hollow".

Returning to the Assembly changes, the Electoral Reform Society welcomed the reversal of the ban on candidates standing jointly on constituency and regional lists, though they called for a 12-month "window/overlap" to allow newly-elected MPs to temporarily retain their Assembly seat(s).

That will no doubt be good news for Leanne Wood (Plaid, South Wales Central) and Leighton Andrews AM (Lab, Rhondda) in particular. When Leanne announced in 2012 that she would stand for a FPTP constituency - subsequently Rhondda -  at the time I said it was a "pointless risk". Depending on selection to the South Wales Central list for 2016 and Plaid's performance, there's probably no risk to her seat now. I wouldn't be surprised if we see AMs from all parties standing in constituencies and on regional lists in 2016, as happened prior to 2006.

The "WAG" is formally no more too, though the name changed (unofficially) in 2011. There was an opportunity, I suppose, to rename the National Assembly to something different, like Welsh Parliament.

There isn't anything wrong with the name "National Assembly" anyway (apart from "for Wales" instead of "of Wales" – yes, it's important) and changing it would result in a whole host of issues like re-branding and deciding what to call elected members.

So, all in all - *grunt of apathetic acknowledgement *.

Read More

Senedd Watch - December 2013

Owen : As you can see, I've done some minor redecorating.

I realise that (for those of you reading this on a computer monitor) the Twitter box is annoying. I'll keep an eye out for a "slide out" like the Facebook tab. I've changed the social media buttons to make it easier to share or follow. I won't force anyone to do that, obviously. Labels have been moved from the sidebar to the bottom of the page.

As you'll also see, I've given my links an overhaul. Some sites I wanted to add (various AMs/MEPs etc., Bridgend Council) lacked the RSS feed necessary to update properly on Blogger. A few of the current links have problems updating too, so they're subject to change.

• Health Minister Mark Drakeford (Lab, Cardiff West) launched a Welsh Government public awareness campaign, highlighting changes to organ donation rules as a result of the Human Transplantation Act 2013, which comes into force in December 2015.
• Julie Morgan AM (Lab, Cardiff North) told The Western Mail that consideration needed to be given to increase the number of AMs from 60 to 80, claiming there were too few backbench AMs to properly scrutinise the government.
• PISA 2012 results showed marginal declines in Welsh results since 2009 (except reading), with Wales placing behind the other Home Nations. The First Minister said performances were “not good enough”, but improvement measures would “take time....to bear fruit.” Education Minister, Huw Lewis (Lab, Merthyr Tydfil & Rhymney), later apologised for the Welsh Government overseeing a decline, saying everyone involved in education “needs to get it right”.
• On December 3^rd, The National Assembly unanimously passed :
• the NHS Finance Bill. The NHS Finance Act will grant local health boards the freedom to plan budgets over three years instead of annually.
• the Further and Higher Education (Governance and Information) Bill, which makes changes to further education college governance arrangements and how student loan data is supplied to the Welsh Government. Amendments will ensure the effectiveness of some aspects of the law are reviewed in 2016.
• A Communities, Equality and Local Government Committee inquiry recommended local government collaboration required “strong ministerial direction” to speed up the process, alongside further cost-benefit analyses to determine the true value of collaboration.
• UK Chancellor, George Osbourne, announced Wales will receive an extra £100million over the next two years in his Autumn Statement, reiterating his commitment to a “sustained economic recovery” in Wales. Finance Minister, Jane Hutt (Lab, Vale of Glamorgan), said it will do little to “change the challenging public finance outlook”.
• A relief fund was set up after coastal flooding in north Wales inundated homes in the Rhyl area and other parts of the UK over December 4-5. Natural Resources & Food Minister, Alun Davies (Lab, Blaenau Gwent), praised the efforts of the emergency service and Denbighshire Council, saying both primary and secondary flood defences were breached. Other Atlantic storms affected Wales over the Christmas and New Year period, resulting in at least two deaths.
• Political figures paid tribute to former South African President and world statesman, Nelson Mandela, who died on December 5^th aged 95. Llywydd Rosemary Butler (Lab, Newport West) described him as a “great human being”, while the First Minister said Mandela was “one of the greatest figures of modern times”. Former anti-apartheid campaigner and Welsh Secretary, Peter Hain MP, said Mandela was a “bright beacon of liberty and justice”.
• A Campaign for Better Transport report found that Welsh railways were underused and had lower passenger satisfaction rates compared to other parts of the UK. The campaigners believed devolution of the railways could provide better services, “with devolved management of services in Scotland delivering significantly better results.” The Assembly's Business & Enterprise Committee report into the future of the Wales & Borders franchise later recommended the devolution of franchise awarding powers to Wales, alongside a draft charter for the new franchise, which would take effect from 2018.
• A BBC investigation into ambulance transfers at A&E departments showed Welsh patients faced the longest waits in the UK, with one extreme example of 6hr22mins. The Welsh Government described the figures as “unacceptable” but said most patients were transferred within 20 minutes (on average). Also, the Wales Ambulance Service missed its response targets, after marginally exceeding them in November.
• Plaid Cymru leader, Leanne Wood, warned that food poverty “is the next health emergency” after British Medical Journal figures showed the use of food banks had tripled in Wales between 2012 and 2013. In an Assembly debate, she called for the Welsh Government's anti-poverty strategy to address both malnutrition and other consequences of UK Government welfare reforms.
• The Assembly's Public Accounts Committee report into governance at Betsi Cadwaladr local health board said failings must “serve as a lesson” to the Welsh NHS. It recommended management performances be better monitored and training improved for board members. It followed damning evaluations from the Wales Audit Office and Health Inspectorate Wales earlier in 2013.
• Abertawe Bro Morgannwg LHB warned patients to avoid Morriston Hospital's A&E department unless it's “a real emergency” following a serious treatment backlog. A Morriston-based doctor told the Assembly's Public Accounts Committee, coincidentally, that he'd treated patients in the hospital car park and that all non-cancer operations had been cancelled.
• The Welsh budget for 2014-15 was approved by the Assembly on December 10^th by 26 votes to 12 (with 16 abstentions) following a £100million agreement between Welsh Labour, Lib Dems and Plaid Cymru in October 2013.
• The Assembly passed the Control of Horses Bill unanimously on December 10^th. The Control of Horses Act will strengthen powers local authorities have to deal with abandoned horses, setting out conditions for seizure and possible destruction.
• Latest economic figures showed Welsh gross value added (GVA) grew faster than the UK average in 2012 (+1.6% vs +1%) but Wales remained the lowest-ranking region or nation of the UK, with a GVA of £15,404. The Gwent valleys showed the fastest growth, while there was an economic contraction in south west Wales, as well as Newport & Monmouthshire.
• Counsel General, Theodore Huckle QC, referred Mick Antoniw's (Lab, Pontypridd) Asbestos Disease Bill – passed in November 2013 - to the Supreme Court to “clearly resolve” any issue over the Assembly's competence in the area following complaints from the insurance industry.
• 2013's school banding figures showed 20 secondary schools were in the highest Band 1 - a fall of 8 on 2011. Teaching unions criticised the use of banding, while the Education Minister rejected criticism that the system was “too volatile”.
• Tributes were paid to Conservative peer and former Welsh Office minister, Wyn Roberts, who died aged 83. Having played a key role in developing and passing the Welsh Language Act 1993 during his time in office, he was described as a “guardian angel for the Welsh language” by S4C Authority chair, Huw Jones.
• Experts believed Carmarthenshire Council could have broken EU rules by granting more than £20million in aid to the Llanelli Scarlets rugby club following their move to Parc y Scarlets. The council said they received “independent legal advice” which said state aid rules did not apply, though they refused to clarify further. In an unrelated development, it was revealed the EU Commission are investigating a deal which allows Ospreys and Swansea City to share the Liberty Stadium.
• The Assembly's Finance Committee inquiry into enterprise zones said it was “too soon to make any firm conclusions”, but recommended the Welsh Government make more information available, make businesses aware of rates relief schemes and consider the use of enhanced capital allowances.
• Unemployment in Wales fell by 7,000 in the three months to October 2013 to stand at 7.4% - the same as the UK average – its lowest level since April 2009. Employment levels had also reached record highs. The Welsh Secretary said it was “being driven by the private sector”.
• The UK Government unveiled the draft Wales Bill, which will devolve landfill tax, stamp duty and borrowing powers. Provisions for a referendum on variable income tax rates were included. The draft Bill also prevents MPs sitting as AMs at the same time and removes the ban on standing in constituencies and regions during Assembly elections.
• Natural Resources & Food Minister, Alun Davies, called for the National Farmers Union Cymru (NFU) and Farmers Union of Wales (FUW) to unite, telling BBC Radio Cymru that having two unions was “nonsense”, saying he often had similar conversations with both.
• The Health Minister ordered a report into the future of hospital services in the Hywel Dda Local Health Board area following a meeting with Elin Jones AM (Plaid, Ceredigion) and senior clinicians, who wanted the minister to take challenges facing a rural, sparsely-populated area into consideration.
• There were calls to relax restrictions on hunting in Wales to allow dogs to flush out foxes after a series of fox attacks on sheep. Animal welfare campaigners criticised it, saying it was repealing the ban on hunting with dogs - via the Hunting Act 2004 - “through the back door”.
• Llywydd Rosemary Butler was awarded a damehood in the New Year's Honours List “for services to women and democracy”. She said she was “stunned and humbled” at the honour, and that she would continue to encourage more women into public life. Permanent Secretary to the Welsh Government, Derek Jones, was also awarded a knighthood.

Projects announced in December include : the establishment of a special group to discuss improvements to Cambrian Line rail services, the launch of an independent review following the Operation Jasmine investigation into abuse at six care homes in south Wales, a drive to create 1,000 jobs in the creative industries through apprenticeships, £24million of upgrades at five railway stations across Wales and a £10million loan to Cardiff Airport to improve facilities.

Read More

Future of the Wales & Borders Rail Franchise

Rail policy in Wales has significant cross-border impacts, and it's
not expected that the franchise map would change in 2018.
(Pic : Arriva Trains Wales)

Before I wrap up for the year, it's worth returning to my "favourite Assembly committee" – Business & Enterprise – which launched their report on the future of the Wales & Borders rail franchise on Wednesday (pdf).

Rail services in Wales recently come under criticism from the Campaign for Better Transport, who claim services were poorly used compared to the rest of the UK and that Welsh rail passengers have lower service satisfaction. The franchise to run rail services in Wales and the Marches is up for renewal in 2018.

The Committee didn't come up with any recommendations as such. Instead, they produced a draft Charter for the franchise, based on an assumption that powers over the Wales & Borders franchise would be devolved.

The Current Franchise

The Wales & Borders franchise is currently run by Arriva Trains Wales (ATW), a subsidiary of Arriva UK, who are in turn owned by Deutsche Bahn. ATW was awarded a 15-year franchise in 2003, with Westminster retaining powers to award rail franchises via the Department of Transport.

The committee say most of the evidence they received was critical of ATW's performance. This includes reasons like:

• Lack of demand forecasting, provision for passenger growth and investment (by ATW).
• A failure to reflect Welsh Government priorities.
• Inadequate rolling stock, poor service standards and complex fare structures.

The Association of Train Operating Companies (ATOC) said the franchise was awarded during a time of increasing austerity, while the SWWITCH transport consortium (covering south west Wales) said ATW had "performed well given the limitations of the franchise".

ATW said the current franchise was effective, with significant passenger growth, record levels of passenger satisfaction and improvements in punctuality.

The current franchise agreement (pdf) meant ATW only had to invest £400,000 over 15-years (what numpty drew that up!?). They say they invested £30million (p3 2.7).

Passenger Focus disagreed with ATW's assessment, saying that although some aspects were "good", there was no planning for future growth and the franchise contract was "flawed from the start".

The committee took evidence from Transport Scotland (the Scottish Government's transport agency). Railways are mostly (but not 100%) devolved to Scotland, and the ScotRail franchise is up for renewal in 2015, so they're going through the same process Wales is. They're including integrated transport provisions within their next franchise agreement, including linking rail services to active travel routes.

A New Franchise


Business Minister, Edwina Hart (Lab, Gower), told the committee that discussions over devolving further rail powers to Wales are "ongoing", while the Welsh and UK Governments have made it clear there should be further devolution of rail powers in both submissions to the Silk Commission. The UK Government are, in fact, actively pressing for devolution of railways, but it's unclear if that's to the same extent as Scotland.

The franchise map is unlikely to change as including English routes improves the franchise's "financial sustainability".

In terms of timescales; the procurement notice will be published in the EU in March 2017, tenders will be published in August 2017, the contract will be awarded in June 2018 and the franchise will come into effect in October 2018. The committee believes work needs to start now "to ensure deadlines are met".

In terms of the length of the franchise, the Department of Transport said long-term franchises were "not as attractive as they had once appeared". Edwina Hart said she would, however, prefer a "long-term relationship". Meanwhile, Railfuture suggested the current franchise should be extended so to enable a move towards a not-for-dividend business model.

Service Standards and Rolling Stock

Minimum service standards on board trains and in stations
should be part of any new franchise agreement.
(Pic : Wales Online)

Evidence suggested there needed to be minimum service standards as part of any new franchise in terms of facilities, rolling stock, integrated transport and dealing with complaints. Passenger Focus suggested there needed to be "hard measures" to tackle overcrowding and simplified fares, but "soft measures" when it comes to service quality.

In Scotland, stations are monitored every four weeks for things like as cleanliness, toilets, timetables and customer service. Inspectors are given laptops to instantly record reports. Respondents believe something similar should happen in Wales.

Passenger groups said there needed to be more regular contact between themselves and train operators, suggesting the creation of a "franchise panel" of rail users. ATW agreed that any new franchise needed to "ensure passengers views are at the forefront" of operations.

In terms of new routes, there was an emphasis on connectivity with England, in particular Liverpool and Manchester Aiports, Birmingham and London. Within Wales, there were calls for improved services on the Cambrian Line between Birmingham and Aberystwyth, and calls for a reopening of a "north-south" rail line between Carmarthen and Aberystwyth, electrification of the north Wales coast line and light rail in unspecified towns and cities.

I think most people using Welsh railways agree that current trains are barely suitable for modern transport. Most are 40 years old and nearing the end of their useful life. Evidence pointed to a need for Wi-Fi, improved disabled access, better refreshment and toilet facilities, and better facilities for bikes.

There's clear need for a long-term strategy on rolling stock
- whether "hand me downs" or brand new.
(Pic : David Burrell via Flickr)

As to where to get the trains from, there wasn't an agreement on whether rolling stock should be "cascaded" ("hand me downs") or bought new.

Transport expert, Prof. Stuart Cole, suggested the Welsh Government should become a "rolling stock company" in its own right, owning any Wales and Borders train fleet from 2018. Leasing company, Angel Trains (and ATW), said refurbishing old trains provided better value for money than completely new rolling stock.

Edwina Hart was open minded about either option, leaning towards refurbishment. While Plaid Cymru leader, Leanne Wood, has previously called for bespoke trains post-electrification.

It was generally agreed that the issue of rolling stock needed a "long-term strategy". However, Prof. Cole said any decision to lease or purchase new trains had to be in place by the end of 2014 as it takes up to 3 years for new trains to become available.

The Business Model

Three potential management models for a new franchise were offered.

• A standard model – Train operators receive revenues and accept risks, with subsidy paid by the Welsh Government or a premium paid by the franchise holder.
• A concession model – Operators are paid a fee to run services specified by a franchise authority. Revenues are then received by that authority (similar to MerseyRail and London Buses).
• A not-for-dividend model (aka "Glas Cymru model") – This could include a state-owned, not-for-profit company operating at arms length from the Welsh Government, or a co-operative franchise.

There was no clear consensus on which model would be best, though many respondents at a special "stakeholder event" believed the not-for-dividend model was worthy of further investigation. Railfuture outright supported it. Many though believed the business model itself wasn't as important as service delivery.

Prof. Cole believed that the traditional franchisee model would provide improvements to customers, but that the not-for-dividend model would be more popular. He also raised concerns there wasn't enough expertise within the Welsh Government to develop the franchise and procure things like rolling stock.

If the franchise moved to a not-for-dividend model, ATW say that there would be more management "by the Assembly", whereas if it's a for-profit business model, the operator takes on more of the management duties.They also believed that profit motive was essential to create economies of scale, saying that if the Welsh Government were considering a different business model, they should do so with their "eyes open to the risks".

ATOC produced evidence from KPMG that highlighted the benefits of competition between franchises, though its findings were questioned by a Leeds University study which said franchising has been "less successful, cost wise".

Edwina Hart said she was open-minded to a not-for-dividend company bidding to run the franchise, but would require the powers to enable that to happen. She did say though that "no substantial work" has been carried out by the Welsh Government to investigate a not-for-dividend model, which caused the committee concern.

There was also discussion on the benefits of integrating infrastructure (Network Rail functions) with train operations - dubbed a "deep alliance" - to help reduce costs overall. It means train operators and Network Rail could work together to improve efficiency and customer service in all aspects of rail operations.

The Draft Charter

The overriding aim of the Charter is to put passengers first.
Haven't we heard all that before though?
(Pic : BBC Wales)

The draft Charter (p34-36) had 10 key points, building on the committee's integrated transport inquiry, summarised as :

• Lobby the UK Government for devolution of powers and funding for railways so the Welsh Government is responsible for awarding the Wales & Borders franchise.
• Ensure the Welsh Government has the right expertise and funding in place to deliver an effective franchise and necessary rolling stock. This includes developing a rolling stock strategy "as a matter of urgency", factoring in electrification programmes.
• Base new routes on a detailed understanding of rail traffic flows in the franchise area, including cross-border routes.
• Take an early decision on the management model, clearly demonstrating how it would improve passenger satisfaction, service delivery and provide value for money.
• The Welsh Government, when drawing up the franchise, should clearly :
• Put passenger needs first and foremost.
• Require significant investment by the operator.
• Enhance performance monitoring based on the Scottish example, and enhance monitoring of services and environmental impacts.
• Simplify ticketing and fares, as well as provide high standards for station facilities and effective branding.
• Integrate with other modes of transport as well as walking and cycling routes.
• Develop a closer working relationship between the franchise holder and Network Rail.

All Aboard?

It looks like they've scored a hat trick.

In all honesty, from my own experience, rail services in Wales – while they could be significantly improved – aren't that bad. I have the luxury of living in an urban area though that's well served by routes, and it's clear rural Wales has serious problems. Rail services aren't as bad or as under pressure as bus services anyway. Following Scotland's lead when it comes to monitoring and maintaining standards of service is long overdue and a necessity.

You can't really argue with the Charter as outlined. It does seem a bit aspirational for now, and will need to be backed up with something concrete when it comes to awarding the franchise itself. That is however - in political terms - a long time away.

If there's one area you would point to a not-for-dividend/not-for-profit model working, it would be the railways. The former chair of the Assembly's Cross-Party Group on Rail, now Deputy Minister for Tackling Poverty, Vaughan Gething (Lab, Cardiff S. & Penarth), has led work on that before.

It's disappointing, but not surprising, that the Welsh Government have been lazy when it comes to investigating that model further. If Edwina Hart really wants to see that happen - I suspect that deep down, she might - she'll have to get her skates on. I suspect though that the next franchise will be awarded to an established company – simply because it's less risky. Typical Wales.

The overriding fact is that absolutely none of this matters without the devolution of prerequisite rail powers. That will have to happen by the end of 2014 at the latest judging by the timescales given in the report.

Read More