Dr. Plaid's NHS Treatment Plan

Plaid Cymru recently announced ambitious plans to recruit an
extra 1,000 doctors - across all grades - over the next two Assembly terms.
(Pic : The Guardian)

Yesterday, Plaid Cymru's Shadow Health & Wellbeing Minister, Elin Jones AM (Plaid, Ceredigion), kicked off the new Assembly session by announcing the party's policy consultation on the future of the Welsh NHS.

The headline announcement was that a Plaid Cymru government would aim to recruit 1,000 extra doctors over two Assembly terms.

The consultation document itself is available on the party website.

As you know, the Welsh NHS – and UK in general – is under increasing pressure due to changes to training of junior doctors and shortages of staff in specialist areas.

This is one of the mains reasons given for the controversial hospital reorganisations taking place in Wales. The Welsh Government and local health boards justify it by saying that concentrating specialist services on fewer sites would improve the training environment for junior doctors, and allow patients to be seen more quickly by qualified staff.

Plaid have taken a different route, focusing on the staffing issue instead of the structure and configuration of hospital services themselves.

Specific problems facing the Welsh NHS

We're all aware of one of the big issues - shortages of specialists in departments
like Accident & Emergency - prompting current hospital reorganisations and downgrades.
(Pic : Wales Online)

The document lists a number of serious issues, which I'm sure everyone's aware of:

• The aforementioned problems in recruitment of specialist staff, with pronounced problems in : A&E, paediatrics, mental health, obstetrics/gynaecology and geriatric medicine. Wales currently has the third-lowest number of doctors per head in the EU, beaten only by Romania and Poland.
• Growth of more lucrative jobs in the private sector which attract newly-qualified doctors and consultants.
• Lack of opportunities for consultants to carry out research in Wales, and lack of allied life science jobs (i.e pharmaceuticals) in Wales for those who decide not to practice.
• Rural and sparsely-populated areas aren't seen as attractive places to pursue a medical career.
• Training opportunities in Wales have been ranked lowly, and trainees are "used inappropriately", covering hospital rotas instead of being trained.

A specific "ticking time bomb", and something that wouldn't be solved by current service reorganisations, is that Welsh GPs are ageing fast, with 20% of the GP and dental service aged over 50. BMA Cymru suggested in 2012 that in the south Wales valleys, up to 40% of GPs will retire over the next decade without replacements.

When it comes to the non-medical workforce (i.e nurses) the issue's said to be not lack of interest, but lack of posts due to cutbacks to nursing positions, loss of experienced nursing staff (to provide training to newly-qualified nurses), an ageing workforce (29% of Welsh nurses are over 50 - p5) and lack of professional development opportunities.

There are said to be no real problems in recruitment of allied health staff either, like health care support workers and physiotherapists, but due to staffing pressures they might be taking on too much too soon.

What do Plaid propose?

One of the headline policy options is to gradually wipe-out the
student debts of medical students who train in certain specialities.
(Pic : via thestudentroom.co.uk)

Plaid outline four policy "themes", each including more specific policy options.

Theme 1 – Financial incentives to retain postgraduates

The headline policy is to use financial incentives to encourage postgraduates to train in specialisms where there are shortages. Plaid would do that by gradually paying off medical graduates' debt (up to £75,000) for each year they train in Wales in a specialism suffering shortages. This approach has been successfully used in New Zealand, and a similar scheme during the One Wales government resulted in an extra 200 dentists being recruited.

Other options include:

• "Golden hellos" for hard to fill vacancies.
• Directly-salaried GPs in areas where they're of short supply.
• Free training in exchange for working in under-served areas – used in Canada and Norway - which Plaid estimate would enable the recruitment of 350 doctors over two Assembly terms.

Theme 2 – NHS Innovation

This part addresses lack of research opportunities and career development, as well as changes to aspects of NHS working practices. Options here include :

• Attracting extra research funding – All Welsh Government departments should make Wales research-friendly, UK Research Councils would be held to account for not funding Welsh research appropriately (Wales received around 2% of UK R&D funds in 2012-13) and establishing closer links between medical schools and hospitals.
• Mainstreaming clinical research within the Welsh NHS – Allow more clinical trials, especially those dubbed "real time trials", to be carried out anywhere using modern technology (i.e. specialist computer software). That means research wouldn't be confined to big university hospitals, but can be carried out at any hospital. An example's given where specialist research on respiratory conditions could be carried out at hospitals in the south Wales valleys, while rural health research can be carried out at the likes of Bronglais and Withybush hopitals.
• Merging health and social care – This "has been discussed for many years", and will be looked at separately as doctors have complained about "barriers patients face when accessing care".
• Paperless working – An example's given where paramedics fill out duplicate forms after responding to incidents, keeping them temporarily out of action. Investment in IT could enable them, and other clinicians, to work distantly across multiple sites. That means, for example, that small hospitals would have access to consultants without consultants physically being there, something trialled in Northern Ireland. It's said a reduction in paperwork could also be popular with NHS staff.
• Professional development of non-medical staff – This includes a separate "invest to save" fund for health to create specialist nursing posts, broadening the recruitment base so nursing isn't reliant on women, and investigating substitution of doctors by nurses on some rotas as part of an alternative package to service centralisations.
• Promote Wales – A no-brainer, and the Welsh Government are already doing some of this in the form of the Work for Wales scheme. This includes addressing negative stereotypes about Wales alongside promoting existing strengths, like existing centres of excellence (i.e. Morriston for burns treatment). The aim is to recruit an extra 50 doctors in one term through this method alone, and an extra 200 doctors in a second term.

Theme 3 – Doctor training and recruitment

• Expanding the number of places at medical schools in Wales, possibly making medical training free to Welsh-resident children in exchange for a minimum term of service in Wales upon graduation.
• Use of technology (as mentioned before) to allow things like distant learning at medical centres away from main teaching hospitals.
• Protected training time for trainee doctors, and requirements that health boards don't have rotas that are reliant on trainee doctors. Plaid accepts concerns from the Wales Deanery about training but believe their "hand was forced by the Welsh Government".
• Implement parts of the Greenaway Review into medical training, which could result in more "generalist" doctors being trained - who are competent across multiple disciplines - instead of specialists. Although specialists will still have a place.
• Quotas and bursaries for Welsh-speaking pupils who achieve the necessary grades to study medicine, ensuring Welsh-speaking doctors are still available in Welsh-speaking areas.
• Promotion of medicine and life sciences as career options, where talented children are encouraged to apply to study medicine. It also means promoting careers in life sciences in Wales for those studying medicine but who decide it isn't for them. Plaid estimates another 300 doctors could be recruited this way, based on a similar policy enacted in Scotland.

Theme 4 – International Recruitment

This is aimed at short-term staff shortages, and has traditionally been used to fill vacancies. Plaid believe recruits should be targeted from within the EU (taking advantage of freedom of movement), and some Welsh LHBs have already held recruitment events in Spain, Romania and Hungary. There's also the option of training doctors from the developing world on short-term contracts before they return to their home countries.

How much would it cost?

Plaid Cymru propose to - in part - pay for this via a 20p per litre levy on sugary drinks,
similar to those used in France, Denmark, Norway and Mexico.
(Pic : thejournal.ie)

Some policies could save money in the long run, like paperless working. Recruiting full-time medical staff would also reduce the current £60million bill for agency and locum doctors. The total agency bill once nurses and other staff are included is over £150million.

Obviously, the other policies would leave the Welsh NHS with a bill. However, current hospital reorganisations also cost money, as I pointed out last year, so are being done for policy reasons, not financial pressures as the result of "cuts from Westminster".

Plaid were smart enough to admit that costing an extra 1,000 doctors is imprecise because there are variable grades of doctor earning varying amounts of money and costing different sums to train. So to produce an accurate estimate, they used a median salary and – on the advice of the Assembly Research Service - added 20% to it.

The figure Plaid come up with was £65million, based on 100 extra consultants, 200 middle-grade doctors, 300 GPs and 400 juniors.

The costs of the student debt repayment plans, based off the New Zealand figures, would be £13.1million over a single term, assuming £52,500 of a medical graduate's average £75,000 debt was wiped out for 250 doctors.

Some aspects could be absorbed by the existing health budget, but – as you know – Plaid Cymru announced they're considering a 20p per litre levy on sugary drinks (~7p per 330ml can). It was originally flagged up by several medical organisations last year, and last November the British Medical Journal claimed it would be an "effective public health measure" that could reduce the number of obese adults by 180,000 across the UK (or a proportional ~9,000 share in Wales alone).

Plaid estimate this levy would raise around £60million. The more detailed figures they provided last November put the figure – based on current soft drink consumption habits – at between £61.2-72.8million. Plus there's the possible savings to the Welsh NHS and wider economy from reduced cases of diabetes, childhood dental problems and obesity in the long term.

If the numbers add up as intended (presuming Wales would have the power to introduce a sugary drink levy) then the policy verges on being cost-neutral, which – to be honest – sounds too good to be true. I'm also not sure if it includes the cost of all the other measures (some of which involve other departments, like Economy & Transport and Education), or is purely relating to recruiting the 1,000 doctors.

Conclusion : Interesting. Very interesting.

The policy proposals are credible and professional, but are unlikely to result in any u-turn
on hospital organisations. They do, however, offer an alternative to Labour's current plans.
(Pic : Wales Online)

Myself and others have been (rightly) critical of Plaid Cymru often blurting out policies without providing the underpinning evidence. Other opposition parties are just as guilty of that too, while Welsh Labour go in the opposite direction and drown you in management speak.

This is different though. It might not be perfect, but I'm impressed.

This should be the template by which Plaid announces their policies in the future. It's detailed enough without bombarding you with the unnecessary (as I might do) – 24 pages is a snip compared to the tomes that come from the Welsh Government. It's credible and professional. More importantly, the numbers seem to add up. Though any serious attempt to bring in a sugary drink levy might prove controversial.

The vitriolic response from Welsh Labour, none of which attacks the proposals themselves in any detail, proves Plaid hit a nerve. It's the reaction you would expect from a party and government under pressure on health and out of ideas. Their response can, therefore, be easily dismissed as a tantrum that adds nothing positive to the debate on NHS recruitment.

These plans really do need more detailed costings, and there are probably "hidden costs" Plaid have missed - IT projects are notoriously expensive, for one -  but the estimates are on solid ground as far as I can tell. Having said that, recruiting an extra 1,000 doctors across two terms perhaps sounds more straightforward than it would be in reality.

I don't think any of this dismisses the need for some service reconfiguration either, but it's clear Plaid have based this on evidence from those in the know and from examples elsewhere that have been proven to work.

If you were to sum up the overarching aim of this consultation it would be to reverse centralisation and downgrades of some district hospitals.

It's too late for that. It's as good as done. An announcement is expected any time soon on the final decision of the South Wales Programme, while it's highly likely at least three hospitals in mid and north Wales will be downgraded too. All that will happen before 2016.

But Plaid can at least, of the opposition parties, turn around and say in some detail, "This is what we would've done".

It's a clear alternative too.

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Cold and drafty Wales Bill

The formal UK Government response to Silk I was laid in front of the UK Parliament
just before Christmas. What's proposed? And what does it  mean for Wales?
(Pic : Press Association via BBC Wales)

Back on December 18^th, the UK Government launched the draft version of the Wales Bill (pdf) – the "meat" of the UK Government's response to Part I of the Silk Commission (devolution of limited fiscal powers), but also including changes to the Assembly itself and how AMs are elected.

As it's a draft Bill, it could still significantly change between now and whenever the full Bill is introduced to the House of Commons. Pre-legislative scrutiny of the draft Bill, due to be undertaken by the Welsh Affairs Select Committee, started today.

So, as you might expect me to do, it's worth looking at the draft Bill in a bit more detail.

Taxation Powers

Subject to a referendum, Wales will have the power to vary income tax rates
for defined "Welsh taxpayers". However, are the powers functionally useless?
(Pic : The Telegraph)

The draft Bill proposes as follows :

Miscellaneous Taxes

• Enables the creation of completely new devolved taxes via an Order in Council.
• Removes existing stamp duty collection and management in Wales, granting the Assembly full powers to introduce its own land transaction tax.
• Ditto existing landfill tax collection and management, granting the Assembly control over landfill tax.

Welsh taxpayers

• Defines a "Welsh taxpayer" as someone who's resident in the UK, pays UK income tax, and meets one of the following criteria :
• Has a "close connection" to Wales (presumably as a permanent resident).
• Has no close connections with England, Scotland or Northern Ireland and spends most of the calendar year in Wales over other parts of the UK.
• Is an MP, AM or MEP representing a Welsh constituency.

Income tax referendum

• A referendum on income tax powers will be triggered when the Assembly passes a vote in favour of holding a referendum by a 2/3 majority.
• The Welsh Secretary will have 180 days from the moment a motion's passed by the Assembly, to present an Order calling a referendum to both Houses of Parliament for approval. The Welsh Secretary will also have the power to "veto" any referendum.
• In the event of a yes vote, an Order will be made by HM Treasury indicating when Welsh income tax powers come into force.
• In the event of a no vote, a referendum on the matter could still be called at a later date via an Order in Council.

Income tax powers

If there's a yes vote in a referendum, the draft Bill :

• Gives the National Assembly the power to set a "Welsh rate" of income tax for "Welsh taxpayers".
• Outlines that income tax powers would be similar to those coming into force in Scotland in 2016 (if they don't vote for independence), which will mean income tax rates in Wales will be lowered by 10p in the pound and the Assembly will then set a top-up Welsh rate. However, the tax is "lock stepped", meaning tax rates in different bands can't be set independently of each other. If income tax is raised or lowered by 1p, for example, it has to apply across all income tax bands.
• Outlines various mechanisms by which a Welsh rate of income tax would be collected by HM Revenue & Customs, how tax relief schemes would fit into it, and monitoring HMRC's performance in collecting a "Welsh rate" of income tax.

Borrowing Powers

Although still out for consultation, the new borrowing powers will
almost certainly be used to fund  M4 improvements in Newport.
(Pic : Sabre Roads)

The draft Bill :

• Changes the circumstances by which Welsh Ministers can borrow as set out in the Government of Wales Act 2006.
• Gives Welsh Ministers the power to borrow :
• to manage volatility in receipts and forecasts, where forecasts differ from incomes (revenue expenditure).
• to fund capital expenditure.
• Sets the borrowing limit at £500million for capital expenditure and £500million for revenue/current account expenditure. However, the borrowing limit can be changed by the Welsh Secretary up or down, subject to approval by the House of Commons.
• Repeals borrowing powers relating to the, now defunct, Welsh Development Agency (WDA) - though it doesn't affect any outstanding debts.
• Gives HM Treasury the power to set a cap on housing debt held by Welsh local housing authorities.

Changes to the Assembly

The "WAG" is dead. Long live the "WG"
- although it's already gone.
(Pic : NHS Wales)

The draft Bill :

• Increases the length of an Assembly term from four to five years.
• Will allow Assembly candidates to stand in constituencies and on regional lists at the same time.
• Bans MPs from being Assembly Members at the same time, except where there's a UK General Election within 6 months of an AM being elected an MP (which is unlikely).
• Formally changes the name of the "Welsh Assembly Government" to "Welsh Government" in the Government of Wales Act 2006.
• Places a duty on the Law Commission to provide advice to the Welsh Government directly, and also places a duty on Welsh Ministers to report any reforms in devolved areas proposed by the Law Commission to the Assembly.

Reaction and Conclusions

The proposals aren't that impressive, but one seemingly overlooked point could leave
the door open for Wales to create a completely new tax to replace stamp duty.
(Pic : The Guardian)

I'm not sure whether to call this an important law or not, as you probably know I wasn't impressed with the Silk Commission's recommendations anyway. This is an even further watered down version of that.

It's basically a transplant of some aspects of the Calman Commission's finding's. Silk I was a complete waste of time and effort by all involved, and even key findings of the Holtham and Richard Commissions have been effectively ignored.

I suppose it's a step in the right direction, but the powers – borrowing aside – are piddling. Air passenger duty (APD) has been taken off the table while, for now, there's no mention of non-domestic(business) rates – though I understand business rates will be devolved at some point.

By "lock stepping" income tax powers, any heady ideas Welsh parties had – including, ironically, the Welsh Conservatives – of creating a "dynamic low tax economy" have been blown apart.

Under these proposals, income tax cuts in Wales would be more expensive because changes will have to apply across all tax bands at the same time. The same goes for tax rises - so tax rises for top rate payers would have to be matched by tax rises for basic rate payers.

Andrew Davies (Con, South Wales Central) seems to have forgotten that, judging by his Click on Wales article today.

The income tax powers, as presented, are functionally useless as - minus an ability to set income tax rates in each band independently from one another - I suspect income tax rates would always be set in line with England to avoid scaring the flock.

Then there's the little matter of convincing Welsh Labour to support a referendum, and winning it off the back of such a mind-numbingly technical matter. As it is, I'd either abstain or vote no. A "hard nat" contemplating voting against further powers for the Assembly - that's how poor a deal this is.

Of course, Scotland wasn't bound to a referendum on Calman. They can ditch the patronisation of Westminster and get real fiscal powers by voting yes in September.

The borrowing powers are long overdue and give the Welsh Government some "grown up" responsibilities. It remains to be seen whether both governments are intent on splashing it up the wall building the Newport bypass, but presumably that's what the borrowing will be used for – at least initially.

The most interesting thing here though is that the wording appears to leave the door open for the Welsh Government to create any tax they want on property transactions – not specifically continuing with stamp duty.

Could that mean Wales could create a "Land Value Tax"? As has been mooted by several people, including Health Minister Mark Drakeford (Lab, Cardiff West)?

In terms of the timing, it might've been wiser to have waited until after Silk II, in order to create a new Government of Wales Act with any (potential) new devolved powers wrapped up in a single piece of legislation alongside these financial powers.

This could hint, firstly, that Silk II isn't going to propose anything significant in way of powers; or secondly, that any new powers will simply be devolved via Orders in Council or amendments to the GoW Act 2006. If we're going to move to a reserved powers model though - as many have called for -  I would expect it to require significant primary legislation in Westminster. Time's running out to get than on the table before the 2015 UK election.

The reaction's been muted. The Welsh Government described it as an "important step forward", though they were disappointed that APD wasn't devolved and that income tax powers aren't set out as outlined in Silk I.

As you might expect, the Conservatives and Lib Dems broadly welcomed it, though the latter less enthusiastically than the former.

Plaid Cymru's Westminster group say they'll try to amend the Wales Bill to ensure the full recommendations of Silk I are included, while Leanne Wood recently ruled out campaigning for a yes vote due to the "lock step" provisions which, as I've also said and has been mentioned on National Left, render the income tax powers useless.

The Institute of Welsh Affairs weren't impressed either. Lee Waters used relatively strong terms to – broadly speaking – dismiss the draft Bill as "hollow".

Returning to the Assembly changes, the Electoral Reform Society welcomed the reversal of the ban on candidates standing jointly on constituency and regional lists, though they called for a 12-month "window/overlap" to allow newly-elected MPs to temporarily retain their Assembly seat(s).

That will no doubt be good news for Leanne Wood (Plaid, South Wales Central) and Leighton Andrews AM (Lab, Rhondda) in particular. When Leanne announced in 2012 that she would stand for a FPTP constituency - subsequently Rhondda -  at the time I said it was a "pointless risk". Depending on selection to the South Wales Central list for 2016 and Plaid's performance, there's probably no risk to her seat now. I wouldn't be surprised if we see AMs from all parties standing in constituencies and on regional lists in 2016, as happened prior to 2006.

The "WAG" is formally no more too, though the name changed (unofficially) in 2011. There was an opportunity, I suppose, to rename the National Assembly to something different, like Welsh Parliament.

There isn't anything wrong with the name "National Assembly" anyway (apart from "for Wales" instead of "of Wales" – yes, it's important) and changing it would result in a whole host of issues like re-branding and deciding what to call elected members.

So, all in all - *grunt of apathetic acknowledgement *.

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Senedd Watch - December 2013

Owen : As you can see, I've done some minor redecorating.

I realise that (for those of you reading this on a computer monitor) the Twitter box is annoying. I'll keep an eye out for a "slide out" like the Facebook tab. I've changed the social media buttons to make it easier to share or follow. I won't force anyone to do that, obviously. Labels have been moved from the sidebar to the bottom of the page.

As you'll also see, I've given my links an overhaul. Some sites I wanted to add (various AMs/MEPs etc., Bridgend Council) lacked the RSS feed necessary to update properly on Blogger. A few of the current links have problems updating too, so they're subject to change.

• Health Minister Mark Drakeford (Lab, Cardiff West) launched a Welsh Government public awareness campaign, highlighting changes to organ donation rules as a result of the Human Transplantation Act 2013, which comes into force in December 2015.
• Julie Morgan AM (Lab, Cardiff North) told The Western Mail that consideration needed to be given to increase the number of AMs from 60 to 80, claiming there were too few backbench AMs to properly scrutinise the government.
• PISA 2012 results showed marginal declines in Welsh results since 2009 (except reading), with Wales placing behind the other Home Nations. The First Minister said performances were “not good enough”, but improvement measures would “take time....to bear fruit.” Education Minister, Huw Lewis (Lab, Merthyr Tydfil & Rhymney), later apologised for the Welsh Government overseeing a decline, saying everyone involved in education “needs to get it right”.
• On December 3^rd, The National Assembly unanimously passed :
• the NHS Finance Bill. The NHS Finance Act will grant local health boards the freedom to plan budgets over three years instead of annually.
• the Further and Higher Education (Governance and Information) Bill, which makes changes to further education college governance arrangements and how student loan data is supplied to the Welsh Government. Amendments will ensure the effectiveness of some aspects of the law are reviewed in 2016.
• A Communities, Equality and Local Government Committee inquiry recommended local government collaboration required “strong ministerial direction” to speed up the process, alongside further cost-benefit analyses to determine the true value of collaboration.
• UK Chancellor, George Osbourne, announced Wales will receive an extra £100million over the next two years in his Autumn Statement, reiterating his commitment to a “sustained economic recovery” in Wales. Finance Minister, Jane Hutt (Lab, Vale of Glamorgan), said it will do little to “change the challenging public finance outlook”.
• A relief fund was set up after coastal flooding in north Wales inundated homes in the Rhyl area and other parts of the UK over December 4-5. Natural Resources & Food Minister, Alun Davies (Lab, Blaenau Gwent), praised the efforts of the emergency service and Denbighshire Council, saying both primary and secondary flood defences were breached. Other Atlantic storms affected Wales over the Christmas and New Year period, resulting in at least two deaths.
• Political figures paid tribute to former South African President and world statesman, Nelson Mandela, who died on December 5^th aged 95. Llywydd Rosemary Butler (Lab, Newport West) described him as a “great human being”, while the First Minister said Mandela was “one of the greatest figures of modern times”. Former anti-apartheid campaigner and Welsh Secretary, Peter Hain MP, said Mandela was a “bright beacon of liberty and justice”.
• A Campaign for Better Transport report found that Welsh railways were underused and had lower passenger satisfaction rates compared to other parts of the UK. The campaigners believed devolution of the railways could provide better services, “with devolved management of services in Scotland delivering significantly better results.” The Assembly's Business & Enterprise Committee report into the future of the Wales & Borders franchise later recommended the devolution of franchise awarding powers to Wales, alongside a draft charter for the new franchise, which would take effect from 2018.
• A BBC investigation into ambulance transfers at A&E departments showed Welsh patients faced the longest waits in the UK, with one extreme example of 6hr22mins. The Welsh Government described the figures as “unacceptable” but said most patients were transferred within 20 minutes (on average). Also, the Wales Ambulance Service missed its response targets, after marginally exceeding them in November.
• Plaid Cymru leader, Leanne Wood, warned that food poverty “is the next health emergency” after British Medical Journal figures showed the use of food banks had tripled in Wales between 2012 and 2013. In an Assembly debate, she called for the Welsh Government's anti-poverty strategy to address both malnutrition and other consequences of UK Government welfare reforms.
• The Assembly's Public Accounts Committee report into governance at Betsi Cadwaladr local health board said failings must “serve as a lesson” to the Welsh NHS. It recommended management performances be better monitored and training improved for board members. It followed damning evaluations from the Wales Audit Office and Health Inspectorate Wales earlier in 2013.
• Abertawe Bro Morgannwg LHB warned patients to avoid Morriston Hospital's A&E department unless it's “a real emergency” following a serious treatment backlog. A Morriston-based doctor told the Assembly's Public Accounts Committee, coincidentally, that he'd treated patients in the hospital car park and that all non-cancer operations had been cancelled.
• The Welsh budget for 2014-15 was approved by the Assembly on December 10^th by 26 votes to 12 (with 16 abstentions) following a £100million agreement between Welsh Labour, Lib Dems and Plaid Cymru in October 2013.
• The Assembly passed the Control of Horses Bill unanimously on December 10^th. The Control of Horses Act will strengthen powers local authorities have to deal with abandoned horses, setting out conditions for seizure and possible destruction.
• Latest economic figures showed Welsh gross value added (GVA) grew faster than the UK average in 2012 (+1.6% vs +1%) but Wales remained the lowest-ranking region or nation of the UK, with a GVA of £15,404. The Gwent valleys showed the fastest growth, while there was an economic contraction in south west Wales, as well as Newport & Monmouthshire.
• Counsel General, Theodore Huckle QC, referred Mick Antoniw's (Lab, Pontypridd) Asbestos Disease Bill – passed in November 2013 - to the Supreme Court to “clearly resolve” any issue over the Assembly's competence in the area following complaints from the insurance industry.
• 2013's school banding figures showed 20 secondary schools were in the highest Band 1 - a fall of 8 on 2011. Teaching unions criticised the use of banding, while the Education Minister rejected criticism that the system was “too volatile”.
• Tributes were paid to Conservative peer and former Welsh Office minister, Wyn Roberts, who died aged 83. Having played a key role in developing and passing the Welsh Language Act 1993 during his time in office, he was described as a “guardian angel for the Welsh language” by S4C Authority chair, Huw Jones.
• Experts believed Carmarthenshire Council could have broken EU rules by granting more than £20million in aid to the Llanelli Scarlets rugby club following their move to Parc y Scarlets. The council said they received “independent legal advice” which said state aid rules did not apply, though they refused to clarify further. In an unrelated development, it was revealed the EU Commission are investigating a deal which allows Ospreys and Swansea City to share the Liberty Stadium.
• The Assembly's Finance Committee inquiry into enterprise zones said it was “too soon to make any firm conclusions”, but recommended the Welsh Government make more information available, make businesses aware of rates relief schemes and consider the use of enhanced capital allowances.
• Unemployment in Wales fell by 7,000 in the three months to October 2013 to stand at 7.4% - the same as the UK average – its lowest level since April 2009. Employment levels had also reached record highs. The Welsh Secretary said it was “being driven by the private sector”.
• The UK Government unveiled the draft Wales Bill, which will devolve landfill tax, stamp duty and borrowing powers. Provisions for a referendum on variable income tax rates were included. The draft Bill also prevents MPs sitting as AMs at the same time and removes the ban on standing in constituencies and regions during Assembly elections.
• Natural Resources & Food Minister, Alun Davies, called for the National Farmers Union Cymru (NFU) and Farmers Union of Wales (FUW) to unite, telling BBC Radio Cymru that having two unions was “nonsense”, saying he often had similar conversations with both.
• The Health Minister ordered a report into the future of hospital services in the Hywel Dda Local Health Board area following a meeting with Elin Jones AM (Plaid, Ceredigion) and senior clinicians, who wanted the minister to take challenges facing a rural, sparsely-populated area into consideration.
• There were calls to relax restrictions on hunting in Wales to allow dogs to flush out foxes after a series of fox attacks on sheep. Animal welfare campaigners criticised it, saying it was repealing the ban on hunting with dogs - via the Hunting Act 2004 - “through the back door”.
• Llywydd Rosemary Butler was awarded a damehood in the New Year's Honours List “for services to women and democracy”. She said she was “stunned and humbled” at the honour, and that she would continue to encourage more women into public life. Permanent Secretary to the Welsh Government, Derek Jones, was also awarded a knighthood.

Projects announced in December include : the establishment of a special group to discuss improvements to Cambrian Line rail services, the launch of an independent review following the Operation Jasmine investigation into abuse at six care homes in south Wales, a drive to create 1,000 jobs in the creative industries through apprenticeships, £24million of upgrades at five railway stations across Wales and a £10million loan to Cardiff Airport to improve facilities.

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Future of the Wales & Borders Rail Franchise

Rail policy in Wales has significant cross-border impacts, and it's
not expected that the franchise map would change in 2018.
(Pic : Arriva Trains Wales)

Before I wrap up for the year, it's worth returning to my "favourite Assembly committee" – Business & Enterprise – which launched their report on the future of the Wales & Borders rail franchise on Wednesday (pdf).

Rail services in Wales recently come under criticism from the Campaign for Better Transport, who claim services were poorly used compared to the rest of the UK and that Welsh rail passengers have lower service satisfaction. The franchise to run rail services in Wales and the Marches is up for renewal in 2018.

The Committee didn't come up with any recommendations as such. Instead, they produced a draft Charter for the franchise, based on an assumption that powers over the Wales & Borders franchise would be devolved.

The Current Franchise

The Wales & Borders franchise is currently run by Arriva Trains Wales (ATW), a subsidiary of Arriva UK, who are in turn owned by Deutsche Bahn. ATW was awarded a 15-year franchise in 2003, with Westminster retaining powers to award rail franchises via the Department of Transport.

The committee say most of the evidence they received was critical of ATW's performance. This includes reasons like:

• Lack of demand forecasting, provision for passenger growth and investment (by ATW).
• A failure to reflect Welsh Government priorities.
• Inadequate rolling stock, poor service standards and complex fare structures.

The Association of Train Operating Companies (ATOC) said the franchise was awarded during a time of increasing austerity, while the SWWITCH transport consortium (covering south west Wales) said ATW had "performed well given the limitations of the franchise".

ATW said the current franchise was effective, with significant passenger growth, record levels of passenger satisfaction and improvements in punctuality.

The current franchise agreement (pdf) meant ATW only had to invest £400,000 over 15-years (what numpty drew that up!?). They say they invested £30million (p3 2.7).

Passenger Focus disagreed with ATW's assessment, saying that although some aspects were "good", there was no planning for future growth and the franchise contract was "flawed from the start".

The committee took evidence from Transport Scotland (the Scottish Government's transport agency). Railways are mostly (but not 100%) devolved to Scotland, and the ScotRail franchise is up for renewal in 2015, so they're going through the same process Wales is. They're including integrated transport provisions within their next franchise agreement, including linking rail services to active travel routes.

A New Franchise


Business Minister, Edwina Hart (Lab, Gower), told the committee that discussions over devolving further rail powers to Wales are "ongoing", while the Welsh and UK Governments have made it clear there should be further devolution of rail powers in both submissions to the Silk Commission. The UK Government are, in fact, actively pressing for devolution of railways, but it's unclear if that's to the same extent as Scotland.

The franchise map is unlikely to change as including English routes improves the franchise's "financial sustainability".

In terms of timescales; the procurement notice will be published in the EU in March 2017, tenders will be published in August 2017, the contract will be awarded in June 2018 and the franchise will come into effect in October 2018. The committee believes work needs to start now "to ensure deadlines are met".

In terms of the length of the franchise, the Department of Transport said long-term franchises were "not as attractive as they had once appeared". Edwina Hart said she would, however, prefer a "long-term relationship". Meanwhile, Railfuture suggested the current franchise should be extended so to enable a move towards a not-for-dividend business model.

Service Standards and Rolling Stock

Minimum service standards on board trains and in stations
should be part of any new franchise agreement.
(Pic : Wales Online)

Evidence suggested there needed to be minimum service standards as part of any new franchise in terms of facilities, rolling stock, integrated transport and dealing with complaints. Passenger Focus suggested there needed to be "hard measures" to tackle overcrowding and simplified fares, but "soft measures" when it comes to service quality.

In Scotland, stations are monitored every four weeks for things like as cleanliness, toilets, timetables and customer service. Inspectors are given laptops to instantly record reports. Respondents believe something similar should happen in Wales.

Passenger groups said there needed to be more regular contact between themselves and train operators, suggesting the creation of a "franchise panel" of rail users. ATW agreed that any new franchise needed to "ensure passengers views are at the forefront" of operations.

In terms of new routes, there was an emphasis on connectivity with England, in particular Liverpool and Manchester Aiports, Birmingham and London. Within Wales, there were calls for improved services on the Cambrian Line between Birmingham and Aberystwyth, and calls for a reopening of a "north-south" rail line between Carmarthen and Aberystwyth, electrification of the north Wales coast line and light rail in unspecified towns and cities.

I think most people using Welsh railways agree that current trains are barely suitable for modern transport. Most are 40 years old and nearing the end of their useful life. Evidence pointed to a need for Wi-Fi, improved disabled access, better refreshment and toilet facilities, and better facilities for bikes.

There's clear need for a long-term strategy on rolling stock
- whether "hand me downs" or brand new.
(Pic : David Burrell via Flickr)

As to where to get the trains from, there wasn't an agreement on whether rolling stock should be "cascaded" ("hand me downs") or bought new.

Transport expert, Prof. Stuart Cole, suggested the Welsh Government should become a "rolling stock company" in its own right, owning any Wales and Borders train fleet from 2018. Leasing company, Angel Trains (and ATW), said refurbishing old trains provided better value for money than completely new rolling stock.

Edwina Hart was open minded about either option, leaning towards refurbishment. While Plaid Cymru leader, Leanne Wood, has previously called for bespoke trains post-electrification.

It was generally agreed that the issue of rolling stock needed a "long-term strategy". However, Prof. Cole said any decision to lease or purchase new trains had to be in place by the end of 2014 as it takes up to 3 years for new trains to become available.

The Business Model

Three potential management models for a new franchise were offered.

• A standard model – Train operators receive revenues and accept risks, with subsidy paid by the Welsh Government or a premium paid by the franchise holder.
• A concession model – Operators are paid a fee to run services specified by a franchise authority. Revenues are then received by that authority (similar to MerseyRail and London Buses).
• A not-for-dividend model (aka "Glas Cymru model") – This could include a state-owned, not-for-profit company operating at arms length from the Welsh Government, or a co-operative franchise.

There was no clear consensus on which model would be best, though many respondents at a special "stakeholder event" believed the not-for-dividend model was worthy of further investigation. Railfuture outright supported it. Many though believed the business model itself wasn't as important as service delivery.

Prof. Cole believed that the traditional franchisee model would provide improvements to customers, but that the not-for-dividend model would be more popular. He also raised concerns there wasn't enough expertise within the Welsh Government to develop the franchise and procure things like rolling stock.

If the franchise moved to a not-for-dividend model, ATW say that there would be more management "by the Assembly", whereas if it's a for-profit business model, the operator takes on more of the management duties.They also believed that profit motive was essential to create economies of scale, saying that if the Welsh Government were considering a different business model, they should do so with their "eyes open to the risks".

ATOC produced evidence from KPMG that highlighted the benefits of competition between franchises, though its findings were questioned by a Leeds University study which said franchising has been "less successful, cost wise".

Edwina Hart said she was open-minded to a not-for-dividend company bidding to run the franchise, but would require the powers to enable that to happen. She did say though that "no substantial work" has been carried out by the Welsh Government to investigate a not-for-dividend model, which caused the committee concern.

There was also discussion on the benefits of integrating infrastructure (Network Rail functions) with train operations - dubbed a "deep alliance" - to help reduce costs overall. It means train operators and Network Rail could work together to improve efficiency and customer service in all aspects of rail operations.

The Draft Charter

The overriding aim of the Charter is to put passengers first.
Haven't we heard all that before though?
(Pic : BBC Wales)

The draft Charter (p34-36) had 10 key points, building on the committee's integrated transport inquiry, summarised as :

• Lobby the UK Government for devolution of powers and funding for railways so the Welsh Government is responsible for awarding the Wales & Borders franchise.
• Ensure the Welsh Government has the right expertise and funding in place to deliver an effective franchise and necessary rolling stock. This includes developing a rolling stock strategy "as a matter of urgency", factoring in electrification programmes.
• Base new routes on a detailed understanding of rail traffic flows in the franchise area, including cross-border routes.
• Take an early decision on the management model, clearly demonstrating how it would improve passenger satisfaction, service delivery and provide value for money.
• The Welsh Government, when drawing up the franchise, should clearly :
• Put passenger needs first and foremost.
• Require significant investment by the operator.
• Enhance performance monitoring based on the Scottish example, and enhance monitoring of services and environmental impacts.
• Simplify ticketing and fares, as well as provide high standards for station facilities and effective branding.
• Integrate with other modes of transport as well as walking and cycling routes.
• Develop a closer working relationship between the franchise holder and Network Rail.

All Aboard?

It looks like they've scored a hat trick.

In all honesty, from my own experience, rail services in Wales – while they could be significantly improved – aren't that bad. I have the luxury of living in an urban area though that's well served by routes, and it's clear rural Wales has serious problems. Rail services aren't as bad or as under pressure as bus services anyway. Following Scotland's lead when it comes to monitoring and maintaining standards of service is long overdue and a necessity.

You can't really argue with the Charter as outlined. It does seem a bit aspirational for now, and will need to be backed up with something concrete when it comes to awarding the franchise itself. That is however - in political terms - a long time away.

If there's one area you would point to a not-for-dividend/not-for-profit model working, it would be the railways. The former chair of the Assembly's Cross-Party Group on Rail, now Deputy Minister for Tackling Poverty, Vaughan Gething (Lab, Cardiff S. & Penarth), has led work on that before.

It's disappointing, but not surprising, that the Welsh Government have been lazy when it comes to investigating that model further. If Edwina Hart really wants to see that happen - I suspect that deep down, she might - she'll have to get her skates on. I suspect though that the next franchise will be awarded to an established company – simply because it's less risky. Typical Wales.

The overriding fact is that absolutely none of this matters without the devolution of prerequisite rail powers. That will have to happen by the end of 2014 at the latest judging by the timescales given in the report.

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A slice of frozen PISA

Climb into your bath, track your arteries with a razor blade and bring on The Smiths.

It's PISA time, and there's nothing the Welsh enjoy more than a good moan, revelling in the doom as we all – once again - rubber neck the slow motion car crash that is the Welsh education system.

PISA, as you know, is an OECD initiative. Since 2000, it's tested 15 year olds in 60+ nations and territories every three years in reading, mathematics and science.

Although Wales has been included as part of regional statistics before, Wales has only sat the PISA tests separately since 2006, so today's results are the third set where Wales has featured specifically.

They're important because PISA is the closest we have to a direct international comparison in terms of education, as all pupils sit the same test at near enough the same time. It's not perfect, but it's the best measure we have and its results shouldn't be dismissed out of hand.

2012's Results

How Wales has performed in the last three PISA tests.
(Click to enlarge)

You can find all the data here, but the specific part relevant to Wales is here (pdf).

One crumb of comfort is that reading performances have improved slightly - up 4 points from 476 in 2009 to 480 in 2012. However, this still lags behind England (500), Scotland (506) and Northern Ireland (498). Northern Ireland was the only Home Nation to have seen a decline.

The bad news is that performances in maths and science in Wales have again declined – though not as sharply as 2009. Maths scores dropped by 4 points from 472 to 468, while science scores dropped by 5 points from 496 to 491. Again, the other Home Nations outperform Wales, with a ~20 point gap between Wales and the rest of the UK that shows no signs of closing.

For want of comparison, 2009 saw a 12 point drop in maths and 9 point drop in science. So the latest figures are hardly as "alarming" as The Western Mail screamed today.

Wales also remains below average compared to the rest of the OECD, placing an equivalent of 41^st out of 65 for reading, 43^rd for maths and joint 36^th place for science.

The changes to the raw scores are barely significant enough to make a big difference - we're talking 1% falls compared to 2009 (or a 1% rise in case of reading) - so it's fair to conclude that Welsh results have stagnated or frozen.

Examining Welsh Performances

International Comparisons

The Welsh education system is roughly as "awful" as
Sweden's, based on the 2012 results.
(Pic : Aberdeen University)

This is the whole point of PISA, but it seems everyone's determined to compare pencils with England alone. Wales – while far from brilliant – isn't the worst by a long shot, though there's clear need for improvement.

• Wales' score in maths places us in the bottom half of the table alongside Israel (466) and Croatia (471) but well ahead of Greece (453), Malaysia (421), UAE (434) and Qatar (376).
• In reading, Wales scored similarly to Sweden (483), Israel (485), Iceland (483) and Slovenia (481).
• In science, Wales scored similarly to Croatia (491), Italy (494), Luxembourg (491) and Russia (486) and was just 10 points off the OECD average.

However, in addition to being behind the other Home Nations on the whole, Wales is light years behind many other similar nations like New Zealand, Finland, Ireland and Slovenia.

That's before mentioning far-east nations like Singapore, Taiwan and South Korea who are in a league of their own, due to very intensive, competitive education systems and heavy use of private tuition. Those bring their own problems - like high suicide rates.

So, internationally speaking, Wales is a "C student who needs to buck their ideas up" and needn't sport a dunce's cap, while the UK as as whole isn't doing that much better. There are plenty of developed nations in the same boat we are.

To make a significant jump up the rankings, Welsh performances would have to improve by up to 10% (~40points).
Judging the overall figures, Welsh education standards are directly comparable with Israel, Sweden and Croatia.

You know...."third world" Sweden. Where the UK Conservatives went to get ideas for their school policies.The same Sweden which has an education system that's near enough as "awful" as Wales', just to put things in much-needed perspective.

Economic Performance

This is the first thing people point to when they analyse the results, (somewhat) logically deducing that PISA influences international investors when deciding where to invest, or impacts the economy in some great way.

Is there a correlation between good PISA scores and higher economic productivity?

2012 mathematics scores for the 65 nations/territories plotted against GDP per capita.
(Click to enlarge)

Using the mathematics scores in isolation - no. There's no strong correlation at all. If there is one it's incredibly weak.

All PISA does is compares test results, giving you a good idea of the strength of respective education systems. As pointed out, Wales scored similarly to Sweden, and performed better than many nations we've lost foreign direct investment to over the years, including parts of eastern Europe.

There's a whole host of factors that determine whether businesses make an investment. Education and skills is one key part of that, but it's not the be all and end all.

There is, however, a clear correlation between socio-economic background and good PISA scores. According to Volume II of the report itself (p38), the difference in performance – on average - between the top advantaged quarter and bottom disadvantaged quarter is up to 90 points, with disadvantaged students twice as likely to wind up in the bottom quarter than advantaged students.

In economies where there is greater "resilience" (pupils who perform better than their socio-economic background suggests they would), the scores are higher. That means in order to improve performances, more chances need to be given to disadvantaged students.

If you are interested I suggest you read the whole report. However, it cements the link between individual motivation, deprivation (not money spent on schools) and poor educational performance.

The Welsh Education System

Time to invest more capital in the classroom, not on classrooms?
(Pic : Wales Cnline)

As ATL's Philip Dixon explained on Click on Wales, turning this around doesn't come down to selective schools, the Welsh language, not enough time teaching "the Three Rs" or whatever knee-jerk response the media and commentators want to come up with to explain things.

The report says higher performing nations "allocate school resources more equitably amongst advantaged and disadvantaged schools" and "grant more autonomy over curricula and assessments".

They also value teachers more. We see them as workhorses who can never do their job properly.

Policies outlined to improve educational equity include :

• Targeting low-performance schools, or low-performing students within schools - This could include a special curriculum, early prevention programmes or, in some circumstances, grade repetition ("holding students back a year").
• Targeting disadvantaged students – This includes, once again, a special curriculum, including disabled students in mainstream classes, and conditional financial incentives to make sure children regularly attend school. Technically, Wales is already doing some of this through the Flying Start scheme and Pupil Deprivation Grant.
• Raising standards for all students – Altering the curriculum, increasing class time, changing the length of the school day and improving teacher training.

I'm not convinced this is something you can "throw money at", as the Welsh Government and opposition parties might be minded to do. Clearly the answers don't lie in things like selective schools either.

The answer, in Wales' case, probably lies in the curriculum and how subjects are taught. It's no good just "teaching to the test", the curriculum itself is going to have to change fundamentally and teachers are going to have to be given the freedom, and trust, to innovate.

You can still do all that while setting down national guidelines and targets. The control freakery in Cathays Park needs to stop.

PISA puts theory in a practical, problem-solving context making it different from any other exam. Welsh schools generally just teach the theory and give straight-forward number/word-only questions, which are never placed in their practical, "real world" use. So when pupils come across a real world example, they might not fully understand the question or might miss key bits of information.
Successive Welsh Governments might well have pumped a lot of money into new schools, but they've clearly neglected the teachers and the curriculum itself. There's no point having lots of shiny new buildings if they're not properly equipped in terms of trained teachers who can deliver a meaningful curriculum.

So if there's one area I would expect more money and policy capital to be spent on, it would be professional development for teachers and developing a brand spanking new National Curriculum – not deprivation grants and school extensions.

And, of course, all the existing measures need to be given time to work too. Big changes take time to filter through though in education – perhaps up to a decade or more. Any measures taken in the last 5-10 years might not make a noticable impact until the 2020s.


Burnt by melted cheese? Let it cool first

The results are embarrassing. However, some of the the reaction to the results has been even more embarrassing. Everyone needs to CALM DOWN.

There's nothing in this worth getting excited about, and we're pretty much in exactly the same place we were last time around. Wailing and gnashing teeth without offering any practical solutions isn't going to help anyone. That's going to take time and thought.

Yes, it's disappointing news, and the Welsh Government/Welsh Labour deserve to be roundly criticised. The First Minister should be pretty red-faced right about now. I suspect if Leighton Andrews were still in his old role, when you add the tuition fee stuff to this, he would be looking at the sack.

However, the decline isn't as pronounced as 2009's and there's been a noticeable turnaround in reading. The worst of it might be over, and once various policies like the Literacy and Numeracy Framework begin to filter through, I suspect we might see modest improvements in scores (but not rankings) in 2015.

Luckily (or conveniently) for Welsh Labour, the results of 2015's tests won't be made public until after the 2016 National Assembly elections. Having said that, it also means there's no opportunity for an improvement between now and then to put on election leaflets.

The backdrop to that election campaign in terms of education is now boiling down to two areas - PISA and higher education funding.

It's all well and good that I can take a step back and look at it as part of the "big picture". Try telling parents that.
Everyone's going to have to take a deep breath, think rationally and think of long-term, transformative changes. Policy makers are going to have to look beyond England for inspiration, and I would recommend Finland and Estonia as the best places to start.

Unfortunately, as the media and political reaction to this has proven, there's plenty of knee-jerk politics out there, but precious little patience.

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Senedd Watch - November 2013

• The UK Government announced - as their response to the first part of the Silk Commission - that financial powers would be devolved to the National Assembly, including : stamp duty, non-domestic rates, landfill tax, the ability to create new taxes (with Westminster agreement) and limited borrowing powers. Subject to a referendum, income tax varying powers could be devolved in future. However, the First Minister said there shouldn't be a vote until a fair funding formula is in place, drawing criticism from opposition leaders.
• The UK Government also announced the first NATO summit to be held in the UK since 1990 will be hosted at Newport's Celtic Manor resort from September 4-5 2014. The First Minister welcomed the announcement, saying he looked forward to receiving world leaders.
• In the second of a two-part review into business finance on behalf of the Welsh Government, Prof. Dylan Jones-Evans recommended that the government's investment arm, Finance Wales, be replaced with a Development Bank of Wales due to concerns about excessive interest rates and charges.
• Senior executives from Cardiff & Vale LHB warned the Assembly's Public Accounts Committee that, due to austerity, hospitals had become the only place to offer 24/7 care to the elderly. It was also said job losses were “inevitable” after concerns from AMs about a reported 400 job losses within the LHB.
• Education Minister Huw Lewis (Lab, Merthyr Tydfil & Rhymney) said it was “unrealistic” to expect PISA results to improve compared to 2010 when the latest figures are revealed in December, despite previous assurances from the First Minister that he himself expected “an improvement.” Opposition AMs questioned the contradictory positions, saying parents now had a right to ask questions about school standards.
• A University of London study revealed 37% of Welsh people were overweight by age 42, and a further 26-27% obese, with men more likely that women to be so. Although overall overweight and obese rates were similar to England and Scotland, obesity levels in isolation were highest in Wales.
• News UK director, Guto Harri, said at a Royal Television Society lecture in Cardiff that the UK press didn't give Wales a “rough deal”, and political differences were no reason for extra coverage in itself. Llywydd Rosemary Butler (Lab, Newport West) also outlined the Assembly's response to the “Democratic Deficit” in media coverage, proposing more support for trainee journalists and AMs, regional press days and more open and accessible data.
• Despite cuts to EU Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) funding, both the Minister for Food & Natural Resources, Alun Davies (Lab, Blaenau Gwent), and the Welsh Secretary believed the overall budget was “fair”, as cuts were shared equally across the UK, with an equal 1.6% cut in Pillar 1 funding.
• The Assembly's Finance Committee believed the draft budget for 2014-15, which was originally said to “prioritise jobs and growth”, instead prioritised the NHS. This was a “disconnect with the Welsh Government's stated priorities” according to committee chair, Jocelyn Davies AM (Plaid, South Wales East).
• The First Minister announced a decision to relocate high-dependency neonatal services from north Wales will be part-reversed. Services will instead to be centralised on one site, with only very seriously ill babies transferred to Arrowe Park Hospital in The Wirral. The decision received a mixed response, with Llyr Gruffydd AM (Plaid, North Wales) saying all services should be retained in north Wales.
• The Welsh Liberal Democrats outlined a three-point plan for the revival of the rural economy, including : a community bank structure, overcoming barriers to low numbers of rural apprenticeships and making universal access to broadband an obligation to service providers.
• Unemployment fell in Wales by 4,000 in the three months to September 2013 to stand at 7.8% (UK 7.6%). Employment rates were also said to have reached a “record high”. Business Minister Edwina Hart (Lab, Gower) said the figures are “very encouraging”, but there were still concerns about youth unemployment and unemployment amongst women.
• A joint report from Natural Resources Wales, WLGA and National Parks Wales revealed up to £1billion was spent in Wales' three national parks - attracting 12 million visitors - with total value added to the Welsh economy of £577million. Culture Minister, John Griffiths (Lab, Newport East), described the parks as an “asset to Wales.”
• The Assembly's Enterprise & Business Committee report into Youth Entrepreneurship recommended : key business skills should be taught in primary school, one-stop-shops for entrepreneurs and ways be found to close the gap between those desiring to start a business and those who follow through with it.
• The Welsh Conservatives launched a new housing policy, with the aims of “rejuvenating” the Right to Buy scheme - via a commitment to replace every social home sold on a one-for-one basis – planning deregulation and bringing more empty homes into use. Welsh Labour attacked the proposals, saying they were un-costed.
• Faith leaders expressed concerns about local authority cutbacks to free school transport, saying faith schools should receive the same levels of statutory protection as Welsh-medium schools. Local authorities were urged not to be “short-sighted in the decisions they make now.”
• A Western Mail investigation found 221 children had gone missing from local authority care over the last two years. Children's Commissioner, Keith Towler, said he was “alarmed” by the figures, while chair of the Assembly's Cross-Party Group on Human Trafficking, Joyce Watson AM (Lab, Mid & West Wales), pressed for an Assembly debate on the issue.
• PCC Christopher Salmon (Con, Dyfed-Powys) said policing powers had already been devolved to Wales as a result of the creation of Police & Crime Commissioners, and that devolution of policing to the National Assembly would cause confusion. Dafydd Elis-Thomas AM (Plaid, Dwyfor-Meironnydd) disagreed, saying he believed administration of justice would be devolved before 2020. Byron Davies AM (Con, South Wales West) later rejected the idea of devolution of policing.
• Education Minister Huw Lewis announced a two-year cross-party review into higher education funding, with the minister telling the Assembly he wanted an “enduring settlement”, timed to avoid the 2016 Welsh General Election. Plaid Cymru said they would participate, but would consider their own policies, while other opposition politicians described the timing as “cynical”.
• In relation, former Education Minister, Leighton Andrews AM (Lab, Rhondda) defended current tuition fee policies, after a Wales Audit Office report revealed it was based on a £7,000p.a. Assumed maximum tuition fee in England, not the eventual £9,000p.a maximum fees, resulting in an extra £156million being spent.
• Housing and Regeneration Minister, Carl Sargeant (Lab, Alyn & Deeside), introduced the Housing Bill, which proposes a mandatory licence system for private landlords, improve homelessness provision, abolition of the Housing Revenue Account Subsidy and statutory reviews of gypsy and traveller site provision in local authorities.
• The National Assembly passed the Recovery of Medical Costs for Asbestos Diseases Bill on November 20^th by 38 votes to 10. The Act will enable the Welsh NHS to recover the costs of treating asbestos-related diseases (estimated to be ~£1million), and enable the employment of up to 20 cancer nurses. The member who introduced the Bill, Mick Antoniw AM (Lab, Pontypridd), said that the law  “can make a significant improvement to the quality of life” of those blighted by the diseases.
• The National Assembly passed two sets Council Tax Reduction Scheme regulations, despite concerns from the Constitutional & Legislative Affairs committee they were “completely impenetrable” and could cause interpretation difficulties.
• The Wales Ambulance Service Trust met its targets for the first time in 12 months, with 65.2% of life-threatening emergencies responded to within 8 minutes, compared to a national target of 65%.
• Mandatory displays of food hygiene certificates as part of the Food Hygiene Rating Act 2013 came into force on November 28^th, and will be phased in for all outlets serving food over the next 18 months. Health Minister, Mark Drakeford (Lab, Cardiff West), said consumers could now make an “informed choice” about where they eat out.

Projects announced in November include : a new £30million round of the Economic Growth Fund, a £2.7million investment in cardiac services in Cardiff & Vale LHB, direct funding to prevent withdrawal of some bus services in Ceredigion, extra ferry services between Anglesey and the Republic of Ireland, the launch of a Procurement Academy at the University of South Wales, an extension of the latest round of Communities First funding into 2016, the announcement of the format of two city region boards, and the launch of the £170million Help to Buy Wales scheme for first-time buyers.

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