Where's the centre ground in Welsh politics?

There was an interesting article on Click on Wales the other day, following off the back of the launch of David Melding's (Con, South Wales Central) new "centre-right" think tank - Gorwel - at the end of June.

I don't really have that much time for think tanks. They have their place, but I'm not sure they're always practical-minded in the application of their work. They're somtimes bogged down in the theoretical (ahem), and a more up-market and credible version of the likes of the Taxpayers' Alliance - designed to pressure policy makers into following a set way, rather than looking at things objectively.

However, a new voice is always welcome in Welsh civic society. I genuinely hope Gorwel is a success, as we don't have enough to counter, or challenge, the left-wing "cosy consensus" in Wales (you can tell I wrote this before this week's "drama", can't you?).

I might myself be left-leaning, but it does frustrate me sometimes that the fundamentals of economics are ignored for the sake psudo-socialist grandstanding between three broadly left-wing parties with the Tories sitting in the corner sucking their thumbs. It's partially why Wales is stagnating, in my opinion.

It does make you wonder where in Wales "the centre" lies.

Firstly, we need to define what a "centre ground" is. I'd deem it a "blind spot" in the political spectrum, where the major parties fight for moderate/floating voters, but doesn't have a defined party of its own.

It doesn't have to be in the centre of a left-right axis - and this is a significant difference between Wales and much of the rest of the UK as I see it. I've given an idea of where I think the various parties are in this diagram below:

A Welsh political spectrum? Is this where the centre ground is?
(Click to enlarge)

Welsh Labour are very clearly left-authoritarians - rightly or wrongly seeing the state, social justice and social order as the way to drive Wales forward. They're not "hands off" at all, even if you could accuse the current Welsh Government of laziness. They micro-manage, strategise and centralise from the top down. Classic "Old Labour", but in 21^st century clothes.

Plaid are a few notches down the authoritarian ladder, and are probably a bit more left-wing than Welsh Labour. It's the same ideals – seeing the state as the way to drive Wales forward, but from the bottom-up : co-operatives, mutualism and communitarianism. It's a much more "hands off" approach than Welsh Labour, and probably the major difference between the two parties, aside from the constitution and specific issues like nuclear power.

Where do the Liberal Democrats fit in? The Lib Dems tread similar ground to Plaid, but perhaps see individualism as a greater influence than collectivism. This could be considered the classic "Welsh liberalism". But that's been dead for a long time.

Accuse me of bias all you want, but Plaid have taken that, mixed it with Welsh-language radicalism, and can now be said to carry the banner of the "Welsh liberal/rural radical tradition" into the 21^st century. The Lib Dems are probably the party closest to that centre ground, but they haven't made a major breakthrough except at a local level.

Devolution allowed a left-ward shift in the axis of Welsh politics. This has had its affect on the Welsh Conservatives too. In fact, I'd go so far as to say the Welsh Conservatives under Nick Bourne probably had more in common with New Labour than Rhodri Morgan's Welsh Labour ever had : support for competition in public services, support for PFI and radical reforms in health services for example.

While Nick didn't shift them that far to the left, he certainly de-toxified the brand by adopting the other thing that throws all of this into a tailspin – Welsh (small-n) nationalism.

Prior to Andrew RT Davies becoming leader, you could argue that the Welsh Conservatives were on their way to becoming something similar to a centre-right nationalist parties in Catalonia or the Basque Country. Their manifesto for the 2011 Welsh General Election was extraordinary in its small-n nationalism : big support for the Welsh language, ambitious goals for the Welsh economy, ambitious goals to improve the capacity of national structures and all tied to an almost patriotic zeal that could go toe to toe with anything Plaid could produce or advocate - short of independence.

I think that's been undone now, and while even Andrew might accept that the last manifesto was a pretty good one, don't expect to see many of these things come 2016. The party has shifted largely to be in line with the UK party, and have become a mouthpiece for them, as well as more solidly Unionist once again.

In the last few days, this has been complicated further by a (I have to say, slightly rogue-looking) poll that suggests UKIP could be on the threshold of a major breakthrough in the Assembly - something commented on elsewhere at National Left and Blog Menai. Most of that shift has been from current Conservative voters by the look of things. Something is seriously wrong there, and I picked up on that following the local elections in May.

I don't think the centre ground comes down to support for enterprise either. All of the parties support enterprise, especially small and medium-sized businesses. I think it's support for traditional free-market capitalism that's the big difference between the Conservatives and the others.

Plaid have their "Greenprint" for a communitarian, co-operative economy. Both Labour and Plaid support the co-operative sector as a whole. All of this is still "enterprise", just with different outcomes.

It's the dirtiest word in the English language in Wales that's the killer – "profit".

Labour, Plaid and probably a few Lib Dems too, loath it. They have to. The Welsh have an ingrained distrust of big capital, the capitalist class, big time charlies, and yes "profit" too. We've probably come off worse, historically, than most parts of the UK (other than NE England) in the pursuit of profit. It's lead to us lacking middle-class and upper-class patronage (with notable exceptions) and a failure to create a successful "indigenous" capitalist base.

The Welsh "centre ground" is probably what I've described before as a type of "Gaullism": Small-n nationalism (in a Welsh context), that embraces individualism, profit-motive (but not full on free-market capitalism), and perhaps a less-statist approach to social justice. They won't support independence, but would probably "love to see it happen, but it wouldn't work/can't afford it" – and I've heard that an awful lot down the years, even in Bridgend. They would, however, support a form of fiscal autonomy or federalism.

This is probably where the SNP is in Scotland, the only difference being they outright support independence.

If anything, in Wales it probably consists of the right-wing of Plaid, mixed with the "Meldingites" in the Welsh Conservatives, Lib Dem federalists, and any "New Labour" politicians.

There's not just room for a think tank there. It's a gaping hole that could be filled with a new political party. This one could become a very big player in Welsh politics, probably pushing Plaid to the margins as a more radical independence-seeking party, while consigning either the Welsh Conservatives, or Welsh Liberal Democrats (as they are), to the dustbin.