The ballot papers have now gone out, and Plaid members from Bangor to Beacon Hill will be casting votes for a new leader. As this is the last comment from me on the leadership election until the winner is announced, I think it's worth reflecting on Ieuan Wyn Jones's tenure. I wrote an assessment last September, so I don't want to repeat myself too much.
For all his faults – the managerialism, the blandness, the waffling - he was a likable, effective, consensus-building leader who helped deliver a valuable and long overdue constitutional advancement. His record as economy minister might be open for debate, but I believe he was the best transport minister we've had since devolution. History is probably going to be far kinder to him than many expect. Diolch yn fawr iawn, Ieuan.
The whole leadership race has been a wonderful exercise. Plaid have hopefully set the trend and this could be the format adopted by all Welsh parties in the future. I commend Plaid and the candidates for how they've gone about this. By Welsh standards it's been a captivating and interesting contest from the start.
As to what do I think will happen, a lot has been said about second preferences, and I suspect that will be the deciding factor in favour of Elin Jones. I might as well come out and say it now - a few of you probably guessed anyway - if I had a vote, Leanne Wood would be my first preference. I quite like, in some respects even admire, Dafydd Elis-Thomas and all he's done for the Assembly. However I feel it's time for a new generation to step up.
This section is about how I see Welsh nationalism in general developing under each candidate.
Dafydd Elis-Thomas
Independence isn't high on Dafydd's list of priorities, that much is clear. He's part of a generation to which self-government in itself was a really significant development. I don't think anyone should criticise him too harshly if he's "soft" on independence. I suspect the rush towards that has only been boosted by the success of the SNP, who've managed to be open about independence without turning voters off. Dafydd is quite right to point out that Scotland isn't Wales - we have a different dynamic - but being ambiguous at the start has probably hurt his chances more than he realises. I actually think it would've been better if he had just come out and said he supported federalism or devo-max in the short term, or simply that Wales should match whatever constitutional settlement Scotland "gets" if they remain part of the UK.
There's always been an element (or an impression of an element) within Plaid who have never believed in independence in a UN-member, own military, own foreign policy sense - just "Home Rule". Now that we have "Home Rule" to an extent, Dafydd - if elected - will probably be the last Plaid leader to not support independence from the outset. In some respects his "post-nationalist"/"interdependence of nations" views are quite progressive, but he hasn't articulated what that means, or how Wales - as part of the UK - would be able to influence proceedings.
Dafydd believes in further devolution, as he puts it, the "UK needs to be reconfigured to meet the needs of the 21st century". Dafydd also believes that Wales will be independent in his lifetime and "relishes the chance" of leading debate on the issue. However, he doesn't offer any clues as to what powers should be devolved or even taken away. Dafydd's clearly pro-Europe, but it's unclear if he wants Wales to be a full member state - requiring independence - or remaining a "region" with little influence at the big tables.
Where could Welsh nationalism go under Dafydd Elis-Thomas?
Guardians of devolution – Expect a slower pace to calls for constitutional change. Expect more reflection on the "devolution journey". Plaid would be positioning themselves as the "elders", making sure devolution works effectively in the interests of the Welsh people. All talk of independence will be on the backburner. Also, expect an awful lot of "friendly criticism" of Labour, probably culminating in a formal coalition at some point. Plaid would probably position themselves as a national movement akin to a political Gorsedd of Bards. Plaid would slowly become small-n nationalists, in an unofficial electoral pact with Labour as a progressive union – Labour's head to Plaid's heart - acting as a bulwark against the Tories at every turn.
Elin Jones
Elin Jones is clear that independence should be the primary aim for Plaid. In the campaign she's taken an even stronger line saying that two Assembly election wins would be a mandate for an independence referendum. So far, she's the only person who's set a tentative date – 2036 – the 500th anniversary of the first Laws in Wales Act and has subsequently said it could be as early as 2020.
Considering Elin will be pushing 70 years old by the latter date, and that many nationalists who steadfastly supported independence will - I hope I'm not being crass here - be worm food or a pile of ash, I would hope for a date a decade or so sooner. I should be well into middle age by then. I'm alright Jack. However I don't think it's right to set a date. It could happen in 5 years, it could happen in 100 years. What's important is that there's a case and a vision made.
It's good therefore that Elin says that there needs to be an "articulate route map to independence" with a "compelling vision". Plaid have attempted something like this before with Adam Price's Wales Can website. How this could be done will be a key issue. Will there be some grand "national conversation"?
Would members from other political parties be able to contribute their ideas for an independent Wales as a thought experiment? I'd be just as interested to hear what Labour, Greens, Lib Dems or the Tories would want an independent Wales to look like. If they use the cop out that "it'll never happen" then clearly they lack imagination.
Being a former Rural Affairs Minister, Elin realises the importance of the EU and has made it clear that she would like Wales to be a full EU member state. That old "independence in Europe" thing.
Elin says that Plaid should press for further devolution - noting fiscal autonomy - but she could be prejudicing the outcome of the Silk Commission by saying that.
Where could Welsh nationalism go under Elin Jones?
Plaid Cymru Version 1.5 – Upgraded, improved, patched. With Elin's economics background I would expect a far more effective - in intellectual terms - opposition to Labour. Plaid would be treading very familiar ground : protecting the Welsh language, attacking Labour in the west and north, not really making any progress anywhere else. Elin would get good press, she'll be seen to be doing things - and she'll expect ordinary members of Plaid to do the same. Plaid will probably make a good go of recovering what they lost in 2011, but will find it difficult to break that 20% of the vote mark. Independence might be spoken of more openly, but without any spark.
Leanne Wood
Leanne generally treads a lot of the same ground as Elin Jones. Leanne says that independence should be Plaid's "unapologetic" primary long-term aim, and that independence needs to be "made clearer" to the electorate. She also says, that in the short-term, Plaid should continue to campaign for further devolution. Also like Elin, Leanne has unconditional support for the EU, but as a "union of peoples, not markets". Is there a hint of left-euroscepticism there?
Leanne Wood, along with Bethan Jenkins, are Wales' most high-profile republicans. As a republican myself this would be a huge development in UK politics. Should Leanne win, she would be the first leader of a political party on "mainland" Britain since Michael Foot (not exactly auspicious) to be an avowed republican AFAIK. How she would handle that tag could make or break her.
She would almost certainly get positive press in the leftie broadsheets on a whole range of issues (think Caroline Lucas). However, Leanne will have to remember, in a Jubilee year, that the Queen herself is quite popular. Even in Wales. Even indeed amongst a minority of Plaid members, supporters and voters. Christ, even I like Betty Windsor, however much I despise the institution.
Where could Welsh nationalism go under Leanne Wood?
A popular progressive front – I don't think Leanne alone would lead to Plaid picking up lots of seats in the Valleys. Plaid simply aren't in that position. She would, however, be able to slash majorities – and that's absolutely crucial. If Labour have one more "bad" term post 2016, then those seats will be ripe for picking come 2020/21 - quite possibly with Adam Price in the Assembly, and opening the door to the likes of Ron Davies, rising stars like Heledd Fychan and the return of experienced former AMs like Helen Mary Jones and Nerys Evans. That's a government in waiting. It would be a big mistake to expect Leanne Wood to do this all by herself. It's going to be incredibly hard work.
A Leanne-led Plaid will presumably be attacking Labour from the left, but that could make Labour appear reasonable to the small-c conservative electorate. Plaid will be out there on the streets, getting noticed and getting involved. There'll be colour brought to debate in Wales, but will it always be articulate? Will all the sums add up? Will it be all heart over head? I could easily see membership gradually increase over the years, but not spectacularly. Leanne will be that rare breed – a Welsh politician people will want to be seen with – but whether those people would represent the average Welsh person would determine how this plays out for Plaid. If it's just the crusties, student lefties and trade unionists then prepare for disappointment in May 2016.
For all his faults – the managerialism, the blandness, the waffling - he was a likable, effective, consensus-building leader who helped deliver a valuable and long overdue constitutional advancement. His record as economy minister might be open for debate, but I believe he was the best transport minister we've had since devolution. History is probably going to be far kinder to him than many expect. Diolch yn fawr iawn, Ieuan.
The whole leadership race has been a wonderful exercise. Plaid have hopefully set the trend and this could be the format adopted by all Welsh parties in the future. I commend Plaid and the candidates for how they've gone about this. By Welsh standards it's been a captivating and interesting contest from the start.
As to what do I think will happen, a lot has been said about second preferences, and I suspect that will be the deciding factor in favour of Elin Jones. I might as well come out and say it now - a few of you probably guessed anyway - if I had a vote, Leanne Wood would be my first preference. I quite like, in some respects even admire, Dafydd Elis-Thomas and all he's done for the Assembly. However I feel it's time for a new generation to step up.
This section is about how I see Welsh nationalism in general developing under each candidate.
Dafydd Elis-Thomas
Independence isn't high on Dafydd's list of priorities, that much is clear. He's part of a generation to which self-government in itself was a really significant development. I don't think anyone should criticise him too harshly if he's "soft" on independence. I suspect the rush towards that has only been boosted by the success of the SNP, who've managed to be open about independence without turning voters off. Dafydd is quite right to point out that Scotland isn't Wales - we have a different dynamic - but being ambiguous at the start has probably hurt his chances more than he realises. I actually think it would've been better if he had just come out and said he supported federalism or devo-max in the short term, or simply that Wales should match whatever constitutional settlement Scotland "gets" if they remain part of the UK.
There's always been an element (or an impression of an element) within Plaid who have never believed in independence in a UN-member, own military, own foreign policy sense - just "Home Rule". Now that we have "Home Rule" to an extent, Dafydd - if elected - will probably be the last Plaid leader to not support independence from the outset. In some respects his "post-nationalist"/"interdependence of nations" views are quite progressive, but he hasn't articulated what that means, or how Wales - as part of the UK - would be able to influence proceedings.
Dafydd believes in further devolution, as he puts it, the "UK needs to be reconfigured to meet the needs of the 21st century". Dafydd also believes that Wales will be independent in his lifetime and "relishes the chance" of leading debate on the issue. However, he doesn't offer any clues as to what powers should be devolved or even taken away. Dafydd's clearly pro-Europe, but it's unclear if he wants Wales to be a full member state - requiring independence - or remaining a "region" with little influence at the big tables.
Where could Welsh nationalism go under Dafydd Elis-Thomas?
Guardians of devolution – Expect a slower pace to calls for constitutional change. Expect more reflection on the "devolution journey". Plaid would be positioning themselves as the "elders", making sure devolution works effectively in the interests of the Welsh people. All talk of independence will be on the backburner. Also, expect an awful lot of "friendly criticism" of Labour, probably culminating in a formal coalition at some point. Plaid would probably position themselves as a national movement akin to a political Gorsedd of Bards. Plaid would slowly become small-n nationalists, in an unofficial electoral pact with Labour as a progressive union – Labour's head to Plaid's heart - acting as a bulwark against the Tories at every turn.
Elin Jones
Elin Jones is clear that independence should be the primary aim for Plaid. In the campaign she's taken an even stronger line saying that two Assembly election wins would be a mandate for an independence referendum. So far, she's the only person who's set a tentative date – 2036 – the 500th anniversary of the first Laws in Wales Act and has subsequently said it could be as early as 2020.
Considering Elin will be pushing 70 years old by the latter date, and that many nationalists who steadfastly supported independence will - I hope I'm not being crass here - be worm food or a pile of ash, I would hope for a date a decade or so sooner. I should be well into middle age by then. I'm alright Jack. However I don't think it's right to set a date. It could happen in 5 years, it could happen in 100 years. What's important is that there's a case and a vision made.
It's good therefore that Elin says that there needs to be an "articulate route map to independence" with a "compelling vision". Plaid have attempted something like this before with Adam Price's Wales Can website. How this could be done will be a key issue. Will there be some grand "national conversation"?
Would members from other political parties be able to contribute their ideas for an independent Wales as a thought experiment? I'd be just as interested to hear what Labour, Greens, Lib Dems or the Tories would want an independent Wales to look like. If they use the cop out that "it'll never happen" then clearly they lack imagination.
Being a former Rural Affairs Minister, Elin realises the importance of the EU and has made it clear that she would like Wales to be a full EU member state. That old "independence in Europe" thing.
Elin says that Plaid should press for further devolution - noting fiscal autonomy - but she could be prejudicing the outcome of the Silk Commission by saying that.
Where could Welsh nationalism go under Elin Jones?
Plaid Cymru Version 1.5 – Upgraded, improved, patched. With Elin's economics background I would expect a far more effective - in intellectual terms - opposition to Labour. Plaid would be treading very familiar ground : protecting the Welsh language, attacking Labour in the west and north, not really making any progress anywhere else. Elin would get good press, she'll be seen to be doing things - and she'll expect ordinary members of Plaid to do the same. Plaid will probably make a good go of recovering what they lost in 2011, but will find it difficult to break that 20% of the vote mark. Independence might be spoken of more openly, but without any spark.
Leanne Wood
Leanne generally treads a lot of the same ground as Elin Jones. Leanne says that independence should be Plaid's "unapologetic" primary long-term aim, and that independence needs to be "made clearer" to the electorate. She also says, that in the short-term, Plaid should continue to campaign for further devolution. Also like Elin, Leanne has unconditional support for the EU, but as a "union of peoples, not markets". Is there a hint of left-euroscepticism there?
Leanne Wood, along with Bethan Jenkins, are Wales' most high-profile republicans. As a republican myself this would be a huge development in UK politics. Should Leanne win, she would be the first leader of a political party on "mainland" Britain since Michael Foot (not exactly auspicious) to be an avowed republican AFAIK. How she would handle that tag could make or break her.
She would almost certainly get positive press in the leftie broadsheets on a whole range of issues (think Caroline Lucas). However, Leanne will have to remember, in a Jubilee year, that the Queen herself is quite popular. Even in Wales. Even indeed amongst a minority of Plaid members, supporters and voters. Christ, even I like Betty Windsor, however much I despise the institution.
Where could Welsh nationalism go under Leanne Wood?
A popular progressive front – I don't think Leanne alone would lead to Plaid picking up lots of seats in the Valleys. Plaid simply aren't in that position. She would, however, be able to slash majorities – and that's absolutely crucial. If Labour have one more "bad" term post 2016, then those seats will be ripe for picking come 2020/21 - quite possibly with Adam Price in the Assembly, and opening the door to the likes of Ron Davies, rising stars like Heledd Fychan and the return of experienced former AMs like Helen Mary Jones and Nerys Evans. That's a government in waiting. It would be a big mistake to expect Leanne Wood to do this all by herself. It's going to be incredibly hard work.
A Leanne-led Plaid will presumably be attacking Labour from the left, but that could make Labour appear reasonable to the small-c conservative electorate. Plaid will be out there on the streets, getting noticed and getting involved. There'll be colour brought to debate in Wales, but will it always be articulate? Will all the sums add up? Will it be all heart over head? I could easily see membership gradually increase over the years, but not spectacularly. Leanne will be that rare breed – a Welsh politician people will want to be seen with – but whether those people would represent the average Welsh person would determine how this plays out for Plaid. If it's just the crusties, student lefties and trade unionists then prepare for disappointment in May 2016.
I would expect an Elin or Dafydd led Plaid to also criticise Labour from the left. There is a desire not to 'out labour' the Labour party but alot of things Plaid always says even under Ieuan Wyn Jones were or are slightly to the left of Labour. Especially at Westminster with Jonathan Edwards, Elfyn Llwyd, Hywel Williams all being amongt he most left wing MPs in the entire place.
ReplyDeleteGood analysis in the rest of your psot. Always a pleasure to read.
Thanks Anon.
ReplyDeleteIt's tough to try and carve out a distinctive voice with three largely social democratic parties in the Senedd (you can also probably argue the Welsh Tories are more centrist than the UK party) and Plaid have struggled as a result.
I'm not sure trying to "out Labour" Labour is always the right tactic. Plaid need to develop their own positions and personally I would like to see a more centrist economic standpoint and possibly on education and some aspects of criminal justice too. If they could mix that with their more cooperative views on social justice then they could be on to a winner. It might be difficult to marry all those things though.
Owen, when you say a "centrist" economic standpoint what policy approach would that actually entail? I ask because different people seem to mean different things when they say that.
ReplyDeleteIt's interesting that you want a change of direction on the economy because I think it's one of the areas where Plaid is getting it right. The Westminster team in particular has been proven correct time and time again, and there is alot of recognition that the "indigenous" approach Ieuan Wyn Jones started to develop was the right way forward.
It seems strange to me that you would support a "centrist" economic policy when we already have the centrist Lib Dems doing that in power along with the centre-right Tories, and it isn't delivering. To me economic centrism would mean adopting classic liberal positions on workfare, reducing the size of the state and public expenditure, prioritising deregulation and privatisation, and policies of that sort. Maybe you mean something different, but that would be a step backwards for any progressive party (not just Plaid).
Thanks for the comment Ramblings and yes, by and large, Plaid have got it right on the economy in particular things like Build for Wales.
ReplyDeleteBy "centrist" I mean three things.
1. A proper balance between the private and public sector. Not an "ideological war" as is going on in England but an acceptance that both compliment each other and that equilibrium is better than being dominated by one or the other. By that I mean not-for-profits and cooperatives could be a "middle way" to boost the Welsh private sector and its involvement in public services without profit motive, and all the ugliness that entails, infiltrating Welsh public services.
2. Fiscal prudence and "bang for buck". Borrowing should be sustainable, figures should add up. The Welsh Government should expect some sort of return from investment - whether it's a boost to the private sector, more efficient public services or a reduction in unemployment. But that investment has to be proactive and targeted. Sadly that might mean some "social spending" would have to fall by the wayside or change dramatically. For example, wouldn't Communities First funding be better targeted at building proper long-lasting institutions instead of here today, gone tomorrow "projects" that keep people busy but don't really get them anywhere?
3. Pro-business (especially SME's), not pro-capitalism. I realise you're probably are going to disagree with this, but I do wish Plaid would reach out to Welsh business more. I would prefer a more "Gaullist" stance on business - that Plaid would see building up trust and confidence in the Welsh private sector as a way to make independence more sustainable and viable. They could look at replacing business rates or reduce regulatory burdens for example. That doesn't mean they shouldn't be critical of "big business" or capitalism in general. Just create a "can do" attitude in Wales where business, state and citizen pull together all wanting the same thing, not to reach into the next guys pocket or live hand to mouth.
I think that would make Plaid stand out and IMHO it's similar to the position the SNP have adopted. Having read back what I've just wrote, it could be a unique "Welsh liberalism" or something similar to what West Germany had post-war. Lets face it that's the sort of reconstruction effort Wales has been crying out for since the 1930's. Plaid should lead the way.
Very good points Owen as ever and thanks for explaining what you mean. To my mind though your positions are left of centre, not centrist. I don't think you're arguing for anything other than social democracy with a Welsh accent. Which is very mainstream by the way and no doubt where alot of people would see themselves.
ReplyDeleteMy problem is that your critique assumes that part of Plaid's current offer is wrong and needs to change. I think the things you say aren't a shift. The problem isn't Plaid's policies it's that not enough people have heard about them. I think you identify the wrong target as does alot of commentary about Plaid Cymru.
It wouldn't make a difference to Plaid's existing agenda whether they said they were centre-left, left-of-centre, "Gaullist" or "Welsh liberal"- and in Wales' context the policies of a party wouldn't fundamentally change whether they adopted any of those stances; although it does speak highly of your analysis that you're able to draw on such terms.
Your assessment is fair, Ramblings and probably right as well.
ReplyDeleteI'm certainly approaching the "centre" from the left, but we also have to remember that the centre of politics in Wales is generally shunted leftward more than England or the UK as a whole. A Welsh centrist would probably still be considered centre left in England but that's semantics.
For whatever reason Plaid can't quite get their message out and you make that point. But I think it's a muddled message as much as it is people not hearing about them. Take Build for Wales for example. On paper an absolutely brilliant idea - but where were the detailed workings? Where were the headline-grabbing/bullet point stuff ordinary voters would understand?
Once Plaid have a leader and a front bench that can bellow out their message and policy without being scared (by negative press) into playing it safe, they'll make inroads.
I might be sounding overly critical but Plaid aren't that far off.