Senedd Watch - May 2016

• Labour remained the largest party following the election, holding 29 seats. However, former Public Services and Education Minister Leighton Andrews lost his Rhondda seat to Plaid Cymru leader Leanne Wood.
  

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Senedd/Election Watch - April 2016

• A Wales Governance Centre report estimated the difference between taxes raised and spent in Wales with £23.3billion raised in taxes and £38billion in total government expenditure, meaning a fiscal deficit of £14.7billion (24% of GDP) – a fall of £1.2billion since 2010.

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Ta-ra Tata : What future for Welsh steel-making?

(Pic : The Independent)

This is an immediate follow-on from the National Assembly debate held earlier today. This post will look in more detail at some of the options facing Tata and other interested parties (like the UK and Welsh governments), as well as what the next steps might be.

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Senedd/Election Watch - March 2016

• Celebrations were held to mark the tenth anniversary of the official opening of the Senedd building on March 1^st. Llywydd Rosemary Butler (Lab, Newport West) said the Senedd has “established itself as a central part of Welsh public life".
• The Communities and Local Government Committee recommended the BBC spend an additional £30million on Welsh programming, that an Assembly media committee be established and that S4C's funding and remit be considered separate from the BBC as part of its recommendations on BBC Charter renewal.
• In their report on the draft Local Government Bill, the Communities Committee recommended the Welsh Government provide loans of up to £246million to councils to cover the upfront costs of proposed mergers. The Committee said it was, "unrealistic....to expect authorities to meet upfront costs without....assistance."
• Plaid Cymru criticised cuts to schools careers advice with the budget and workforce for Careers Wales halving since 2010-11, leaving as few as 40 careers advisers for Welsh secondary schools by the end of 2016. Rhun ap Iorweth AM (Plaid, Ynys Môn) said, "There’s a danger that pupils can go through school with....no careers support.”
• On March 7^th, the First Minister unveiled the Welsh Government's “alternative draft Wales Bill”, which included proposals such as : a formal name change of the National Assembly to Welsh Parliament, devolution of criminal justice in 2026, the creation of a distinct Welsh legal jurisdiction and the creation of a Welsh Law Commissioner.
• The Public Services Ombudsman said out-of-hours NHS services needed a systemic review after a number of cases highlighted “inadequate standards of care” and were not “one off incidents”. The Welsh Government said it took the issue seriously, but wanted more focus and cooperation instead of a “diktat”.
• The Finance Committee recommended the Fifth Assembly introduce a law to strengthen the powers of the Public Services Ombudsman, including investigatory powers, complaints handling across public services and extending jurisdiction to private health providers.
• A report for the Welsh Government – coinciding with International Womens' Day – said more women needed to be encouraged into science and engineering and that a “critical shortage” of female scientists and engineers was hampering the Welsh economy. Also, prominent present and former women athletes called for more coverage of womens' sport.
• The Environment Committee said Wales should produce 100% of its energy requirements from renewables following their inquiry into the future of energy production. They also recommended setting annual targets to reduce energy demand, reviewing building regulations on energy efficiency and establishing a not-for-profit “umbrella company” for locally-produced energy.
• The National Assembly unanimously approved the Tax Collection & Management Bill on March 8^th. The Act will create a Welsh Revenue Authority to collect devolved taxes – such as landfill tax and stamp duty - from 2018.
• AMs voted in favour of a partial ban on the use of e-cigarettes in some public places – notably schools, places where food is served and public transport – as part of Stage 3 amendments to the Public Health Wales Bill. However, the Bill was rejected by the Assembly on March 16th by 27 votes to 26 after Plaid Cymru were derided as a “cheap date” earlier in the day by Public Services Minister, Leighton Andrews (Lab, Rhondda), for reaching easy agreement on the Local Government Act.
• Dafydd Elis Thomas AM (Plaid, Dwyfor Meirionnydd) felt “personally betrayed” by Plaid's sudden u-turn whilst he attended the House of Lords, describing it as one of the lowest points of his time in office. Plaid were also ridiculed by the Liberal Democrats for voting down the law for “farcical” reasons, though the u-turn was welcomed.
• A report on the M4 Newport relief road suggests it could cost as much as £1.1billion, despite the First Minister's previous claims the project would cost “nowhere near” £1billion. Draft orders for compulsory purchase of land were issued on March 24^th, though no official go ahead can be given until after the Assembly election.
• The Welsh Government started legal action against Lambert Smith Hampton as a result of the RIFW scandal. The National Assembly debated the Public Accounts Committee report on March 16^th and unanimously agreed to note its recommendations.
• The Finance Committee's inquiry into how Wales is funded recommended a “long-lasting” commitment to fair funding, and said arrangements for fair funding needed to be finalised before taxes are devolved. They also recommended this be put on a statutory basis and an independent body be formed to create a transparent system for funding the devolved administrations.
• In his UK Budget on March 16^th, UK Chancellor George Osborne announced : Severn Bridge tolls would be halved in 2018, tax breaks for a proposed Port Talbot enterprise zone and the introduction of a tax on sugary drinks from 2018. An extra £3.5billion in spending cuts were also announced.
• In addition, a £1.2billion “city deal” covering 10 local authorities in south east Wales was signed on March 15^th. The money will be used to develop the south Wales metro, establish a semi-conductor cluster and create an innovation district.
• Iain Duncan Smith resigned as UK Work and Pensions Secretary after opposing cuts to disability benefits. The Prime Minister was “puzzled and disappointed” by the decision. Welsh Secretary, Stephen Crabb MP (Con, Preseli Pembs.) was appointed as his replacement, while Alun Cairns MP (Con, Vale of Glamorgan) was promoted to Welsh Secretary.
• The Enterprise & Business Committee recommended a deadline of 2018 be set to introduce an all-Wales travel smart card as part of its inquiry into buses and community transport. Chair William Graham AM (Con, South Wales East) said, “It is technologically possible and passengers want it. The incoming transport minister will need to drive this initiative from day one."
• On March 23^th, Economy and Transport Minister, Edwina Hart (Lab, Gower) announced a Transport Commissioner for Wales – one of the recommendations of the report – would be created, subject to UK Government approval.
• A second Enterprise and Business Committee report into rail infrastructure recommended a business case be drafted to electrify the north Wales mainline, enhanced services between Aberystwyth and the English Midlands and the redevelopment of Cardiff Central station.
• Education Minister, Huw Lewis (Lab, Merthyr Tydfil & Rhymney), launched new teacher training guidelines for university courses, including new two-year postgraduate courses and greater specialisation for primary school teachers. The intention is to create the “toughest and best” teacher training system in the UK.
• A Public Accounts Committee report into Cardiff Airport criticised the lack of a “long-term growth plan” and a lack of progress against business plans. The Welsh Government said passenger satisfaction levels were at an all-time high and passenger numbers were increasing.
• On March 30^th, Tata's executive board announced it would consider selling its UK steel-making business – which includes plants in Port Talbot, Newport, Llanelli and Shotton – after rejecting a restructuring plan.
• The UK Government and Welsh Government issued a joint statement saying they were “considering all the options” for the Port Talbot plant in particular, including a management buy-out - though the Prime Minster ruled out nationalisation on March 31st. The Llywydd recalled the National Assembly  from Easter recess to discuss the issue on April 4^th.

Projects announced in March include : A £26million Welsh Government-EU investment in a solar energy research centre in Port Talbot; a new £6million National Autism Service to be rolled out over the next three years; the launch of a transgender action plan; a £3.2million upgrade to three sports sites in north Wales; a new IT system to track hospital infections in “real time”; £12.8million for regeneration projects and £10.3million for 94 new ambulances.

• The Welsh Conservatives pledged to start construction of an M4 Newport bypass “within 12 months” should they form the next government, but will review all options beforehand. They accused Labour of “dithering” on the issue and later said a Labour-Plaid coalition would lead to the project's cancellation.
• The Lib Dems pledged to include a carbon impact assessment on every new piece of legislation and would submit a carbon budget alongside annual budgets. William Powell AM (Lib Dem, Mid & West Wales) said, “It is only the Welsh Liberal Democrats who have the ambition....that Wales needs to tackle climate change and grow our green economy.”
• At Plaid Cymru's spring conference in Llanelli, Leanne Wood AM (Plaid, South Wales Central), said voters has been “taken for granted” by Labour and repeated key campaign pledges such as recruiting an extra 1,000 medical staff, scrapping home care charges for the elderly and the creation of a economic development agency.
• Plaid also ruled out making a coalition with Labour if the latter press ahead with plans to construct an M4 Newport bypass. Leanne Wood said, “focusing spending on one small corner of the nation is completely unacceptable.”
• The Green Party in Wales outlined their housing proposals, including a commitment to building 12,000 new homes a year, guarantees that a minimum proportion of those would be social housing and extra help on fuel efficiency.
• The Conservatives unveiled proposals for a hospital rating system and measures to “boost patient choice” such as giving patients a right to choose their GP and hospital. They also proposed an NHS Safety Bill. Shadow Health Minister, Darren Millar (Con, Clwyd West) said, “We want to see an NHS underpinned by patient responsibility and choice - supported by record levels of funding and investment.”
• UKIP unveiled their regional candidates on March 7^th, which includes former MPs Neil Hamilton and Mark Reckless. Nathan Gill MEP – who topped the list in North Wales - said, “The Welsh membership have now had their say....Now is the time for all of us to move forward united and to campaign to bring real change to the political establishment in Cardiff Bay.”
• The Conservatives would treble the number of hours of free childcare from 10 hours a week to 30. Shadow Education Minister, Angela Burns (Con, Carms. W. & S. Pembs.) said “It is currently very difficult for working parents to take advantage of....free childcare, especially as provision frequently has to spread over five days.” UKIP would increase the number of child minders by allowing them to work without regulatory approval.
• At their spring conference in Llangollen, the Conservatives unveiled key policies, such as capping residential care costs at £400 a week, guaranteeing extra funds for the NHS and directing more money to classrooms. Leader of the Opposition, Andrew Davies (Con, South Wales Central), said he also wanted to make Wales the UK's “low tax capital”.
• The Lib Dems pledged to extend the Nurse Staffing Levels Act to cover maternity wards, mental health wards and community nurses. Kirsty Williams AM (Lib Dem, Brecon & Radnor) said, “We all want NHS staff to have the time to care for our loved ones, which is why the Welsh Liberal Democrats will deliver safe staffing levels across the NHS.”
• The Wales Green Party launched its election campaign on March 21^st, pledging to scrap tuition fees for Welsh-domiciled students, end school closures and “protect front line public services”. Party leader, Alice Hooker-Stroud, said “From public transport to our health care, to our education, it's time to put the public first.”
• Plaid Cymru's PCC candidate for Dyfed Powys, Dafydd Llywelyn, said the new EnglandandWales helicopter service was letting down the force area after a FOI request revealed 86% of requests for air support beween 8pm and 8am weren't honoured, despite promises of 24-hour cover.
• Plaid Cymru pledged to reform the “regressive” council tax which could result in those in the lowest council tax bands paying up to £400 a year less, while they also pledged not to change income tax rates during the Fifth Assembly. They also called for civil service reform to fix a “conservative and risk-averse” culture.
• The Conservatives would make 70,000 extra homes available for rent or purchase and would retain the “right-to-buy” as well as scrap stamp duty for first time buyers who buy homes worth less than £250,000.
• Plaid Cymru would offer education, employment or training to everyone under the age of 25 who's been seeking work for four months as part of plans for “cradle to career” support – which would also see the creation of 50,000 apprenticeships. Llanelli candidate, Helen Mary Jones said, “We will work to ensure that no young person in Wales is left behind.”
• Labour's PCC candidate for North Wales, David Taylor, was criticised by civil justice campaigners for stigmatising the unemployed and mentally ill after pledging a “war on wasters” and zero tolerance towards anti-social behaviour, vandalism and public drinking.

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Fourth Assembly Review : End of Term Awards

The stage is (not) set, the red carpet is (not) laid out....
(Pic : modified via Shutterstock)

After focusing on what they've collectively done or haven't done, it's worth turning attentions to AMs themselves and being "nice to them".

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Fourth Assembly Review : Key Failures

Like last time, these are in no particular order :

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Fourth Assembly Review : Key Achievements

Although the National Assembly doesn't officially dissolve until April 6^th, as this week is the last sitting week the election campaign will soon ratchet up a gear or two.

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Fourth Assembly In Focus : Education

Following the economy and health, my final in-depth look at policy during the Fourth Assembly goes into our classrooms and lecture theatres.

Major Policy Initiatives of the Fourth Assembly

The Donaldson Review – A major review, led by Prof. Graham Donaldson, into the national curriculum in Wales. The proposals mirror those applied in Scotland in 2010, though they're not expected to be fully rolled-out until 2021. They include the scrapping of key stages, the creation of six learning areas and requiring all teachers to have cross-curriculum competences in literacy, numeracy and IT (see also : Detention for Donaldson?). The goal is to create "ambitious, capable learners" who are "healthy and confident".

Schools Challenge Cymru & Regional Consortia – If there's one thing Huw Lewis likes it's new schemes and organisations. The first was aimed at raising standards at the 40 worst-performing schools in Wales by applying additional resources; indications from 2015's GCSE results are that there's been an improvement in the number of pupils achieving 5 good grades. The second scheme is supposed to lead school improvement and share best practice, but reports from Estyn and Wales Audit Office have painted a mixed picture due to uncertainty over their role and a lack of monitoring.

Literacy & Numeracy Tests/Framework & School Banding – Wales was one of the first home nations to scrap the controversial end of key stage SATS tests in 2004 alongside school league tables. Leighton Andrews effectively reintroduced them in 2013 as compulsory literacy and numeracy tests. This was joined by colour-coded school rankings. Both have been criticised by teaching unions; the first for marking rows and statistical issues, the second for causing school rankings to fluctuate wildly year-to-year. A report earlier this year also suggested the improvements sought by the framework could take several years to permeate through, with few indications of an impact so far.

Reorganisation of Colleges & Universities – A Welsh Government-led rationalisation of the further and higher education sectors resulted in several mergers which have created, amongst others, the University of South Wales, Trinty St Davids University (UWTSD), NPT Group, Coleg y Cymoedd and Cardiff & Vale College. It's unclear whether the upheaval caused by mergers has impacted staff or student morale, but it has prompted major capital investments in new campuses, such as Cardiff & Vale College in Butetown or the proposed new UWTSD campus in Swansea SA1.

Education Funding

Pupil spending per head - source

One of Labour's key election manifesto commitments in 2011 was to keep school spending at 1% above any changes to the block grant Westminster uses to fund Wales.

It's quite clear that although spending-per-head has risen over the course of the Fourth Assembly, in the last two years or so Labour probably didn't keep their promise, presumably as more money was diverted to the NHS or by double counting the pupil deprivation grant. Although there have been "real terms" cuts to the block grant, in cash terms it's increased modestly. Therefore, you would've expected schools spending to have risen in line with that throughout the term – but it's unclear whether it has or hasn't.

Elsewhere, the 21^st Century Schools programme has been maintained through the Fourth Assembly, though it's been scaled back and delayed from the original £1.4billion six-year programme announced in 2011, with the Finance Minister seeking non-profit distributive finance in 2014.

The other major scheme is the Liberal Democrats' Pupil Deprivation Grant (PDG), which pays schools £1,050 every pupil aged 5-15 who's eligible for free school meals. It's due to be increased again to £1,150 from 2016-17. There are also smaller payments for Foundation Phase pupils. In 2015-16 the grant totalled £72.4million. Although independent reviews have shown that the PDG has made a difference there've been concerns about how it's being spent.

I'm yet to be convinced that throwing money at problems actually fixes anything. The only area of government policy where that genuinely works is infrastructure, and we've been throwing money at the NHS for the best part of a decade without it really getting us anywhere. The same goes for schools; it comes down to the quality of teachers, class sizes, teacher workloads and the curriculum.

Exam Results

Key exam pass rates - source (GCSE), source (FSM), source (A-Level)

I suppose this is the key measure and there's clear good news, with pass rates steadily rising over the Fourth Assembly at GCSE level, while A-Level pass rates remain relatively high. The next round of PISA results are unlikely to be released before the end of the year, but that's where attentions were focused on a few years back and will be again for whoever succeeds Huw Lewis (see also : A slice of frozen PISA).

The percentage of pupils getting 5 A*-C grades at GCSE, including either English or Welsh and mathematics (Level 2 threshold), is close to hitting 60%. Meanwhile, the functionally useless pass rate marker for A-Level remained at around 97%.

The link between poverty and poor educational attainment has been well established and, not unsurprisingly, the GCSE Level 2 pass rate for those eligible for free school meals remains significantly below average – although Level 2 pass rates have increased in line with GCSE passes for everyone else, and the gap has closed by around 2-3% over the last five exam cycles (see also : AMs demand action to close education gap).

Schools Challenge Cymru was established provide extra help to those schools which are defined as struggling for whatever reason, and some of these 40 schools selected for the programme have seen progress on GCSE results. It's too early to tell whether the scheme as a whole will be a success or not, but there are reasons to be cautiously optimistic.

Further Education

With the ever growing emphasis on work-based learning/apprenticeships this term, you would've thought that the further education sector will be going through a period of growth and investment. In many respects it has – but unfortunately the relevant statistics have only been collected/reported for two years.

What they point to is a decreasing number of college students but an increase in the number of work-based learners and apprenticeships (source). Behind the scenes, however, there's been quite a bit of upheaval (as touched on earlier) with college mergers being pushed through and sizable cuts to the further education budget in some of the budgets passed by the Assembly this term.

So the future looks like being one of fewer, bigger colleges and that brings into question the future of some of Wales' smaller institutions, like Coleg Ceredigion and perhaps even the likes of Bridgend College and Coleg Sir Gar. With some local authorities actively, or actively considering, closure of sixth forms then the role of FE colleges could be about to become greater. Any incoming government will have to ensure there's some focus on the knock-on impact such policies might have on the sector in terms of things like staff, facilities and transport.

Universities

One of the headline, and most contentious, policies of the Fourth Assembly is the tuition fee subsidy, where Welsh-domiciled students only pay up to £4,000 a year regardless of where they choose to study, with the Welsh Government making up the rest. Means-tested living grants have also been made available to those from low income families.

The spirit of the policy is perfectly correct, but ever since the previous Conservative-Lib Dem UK Government lifted the cap on tuition fees, it's clear the policy is becoming increasingly burdensome on the Welsh budget, and is widening the university funding gap between Wales and England – currently estimated to be as high as £115million – while the policy itself was recently estimated to have cost £235million (see also : Welsh tuition fee policy under scrutiny).

Nonetheless, the wrangling over fees and university finance hasn't deterred people from going to university. The number of Welsh-domiciled undergraduates has stayed broadly at the same level of around 78,000 a year since 2011-12 (source), however, while in 2011/12 46% of Welsh-domiciled students studied at a Welsh university, that's dropped slightly to 45% in 2013/14 – presumably because of the tuition fee policy.

It's also worth pointing out that the vast majority of Welsh-domiciled postgraduates who are still based in the UK study in Wales (67%).

Welsh-medium Education

Labour set no concrete targets for the number of pupils educated in Welsh in their 2011 manifesto and they're lucky they didn't.

Percentage of pupils taught mainly or wholly in Welsh - source

Broadly-speaking the numbers of pupils educated in Welsh has increased over the last five years, but there was a surprise dip in the number of secondary school WM pupils in 2014-15, presumably because of a general drop in roll numbers at that age group. Unsurprisingly, most WM pupils live in Y Fro Gymraeg (Gwynedd, Anglesey, Ceredigion, Carmarthenshire), with only Rhondda Cynon Taf and Cardiff having any significant figures outside this area.

There are 36 fewer Welsh-medium schools in 2015 than in 2010. Meanwhile, the number of teachers qualified to teach through Welsh over the same period has remained relatively stable (source)– so it's safe to say Welsh-medium education has expanded at the bottom, but contracted at the top.

Welsh language exam results - source (full course), source (short course)

Next, it's performance in Welsh. The most notable surprise is that GCSE A*-C pass rates in Welsh second language have overtaken Welsh first language. There are a number of possible explanations. Pupils taking the second language full course are going to be more committed than short course students, while as it's taught as a second language it's going to be easier than being taught as a first language (which will be more in-depth). However, pass rates for Welsh first language are, generally, higher than English language (which is also taught in WM schools).

The Education Workforce

The education workforce - source

The only things really worth taking from this are the decrease in the number of headteachers and the growing numbers of teaching assistants.

The latter can probably be explained by the roll out of the Foundation Phase (see also : Foundation Fazed) where a lower staff:pupil ratio is mandated – so these figures aren't unexpected. The problems will start to arise when teaching assistants start teaching, and trade unions have claimed assistants have been asked to stand in for fully-qualified teachers.

Like other parts of the public sector, the teaching workforce is ageing and it's unclear whether there are enough new teachers coming through to take their place. Teaching has an increasingly bad reputation because of the pressures of the job and bureaucracy. Judging by the number of vacancies advertised there appears to be particular problems in recruiting English, maths and (what I presume is Key Stage 3) science teachers (source).

The fall in the number of headteachers could be explained by a simple fall in the number of schools – through closure of small rural schools, mergers or "federated schools". Nevertheless, schools need some sort of leadership and it's slightly worrying that, with the falling number of headteachers, the careers of some promising leaders might stall.

Conclusions

If Labour's record on the economy is broadly "good", and their record on health is broadly "bad" then their education record is mixed with clear good and bad points.

In terms of the good news, exam pass rates are improving year on year, a healthy proportion of young people are going to university and there's been extra help to close the gap in performance between poorer and wealthier pupils.

The PISA scores in 2012 (A slice of frozen PISA) perhaps caused some unnecessary panic – though we're unlikely to find out 2015's results until the end of 2016. The other bad news would be that the Welsh Government haven't really lived up to any non-binding promises they made on Welsh-medium education, while the gap between the best-performing and worst-performing pupils remains dauntingly large. It's also becoming clear current tuition fee policy is untenable.

Like health, the last thing teachers are going to want to hear are more proposals from political parties for "major reforms"; the Donaldson reforms are going to be significant in their own right.

Teachers need to be given a bit of breathing room and existing reforms need a chance to properly bed in; but I'm worried that if there's another set of bad PISA results – or some knock on impact on schools as a result of local government reorganisation - we're going to end up with politicians running around like headless chickens again demanding answers and immediate action on issues that often take years, if not decades, to resolve themselves. We deserve cool heads on this.

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Fourth Assembly In Focus : Health & Care

Last time I focused on the economy – which no doubt would've brought some smiles to any Labour faces reading this as it was broadly good news. I think it's time to wipe any smug grins away.

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Senedd/Election Watch - February 2016

• A UCL-Wales Governance Centre report on the draft Wales Bill recommended AMs reject it, describing current proposals as “constricting, clunky, inequitable and short-sighted”. There was also criticism of “blurry forms of executive veto”. Welsh Secretary, Stephen Crabb MP (Con, Preseli Pembs.), accused critics of being “ill-informed or just plain wrong”.
• On February 28^th, the Welsh Affairs Select Committee recommended a “pause” on the legislation to enable a lasting devolution settlement to be created. Chair, David Davies MP (Con, Monmouth) said, “Over the course of the inquiry, the committee has heard evidence that raises doubts about the draft Bill’s ability to provide the lasting settlement it seeks to create.”
• On February 29th, the Welsh Secretary said "significant changes" would be made to the Wales Bill, including the removal of "necessity tests" and the establishment of a working group to determine if Wales needs its own distinct legal arrangements. The publication of a final version of the Bill will be delayed until May 2016.
• The National Assembly unanimously approved the Environment Bill on February 2^nd. The Environment Act will set statutory targets to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, extend the single use carrier bag charge to “bags for life” and make separation of recyclable waste mandatory in the public and private sectors.
• A review of the National Assembly's petitions system recommended the threshold for consideration be raised from 10 signatures to 50, that only Welsh residents and organisations can submit a petition and that a signature threshold be set to trigger an Assembly plenary debate on a petition. It also called for Petitions Committee meeting flexibility to allow them to meet outside Cardiff.
• A survey conducted by the Children's Commissioner found bullying was a top priority for action by 7-18 year olds; amongst those aged 3-7 it was safe places to play. Commissioner Sally Holland said, “The consultation included many groups who often don't get a chance to take part in large surveys like this....Wales will be stronger if all of its citizens get the chance to play their part.”
• The Assembly passed the Historic Environment Bill by 32 votes with 22 abstentions on February 9^th. The Historic Environment Act will provide greater protection to historic monuments, create a statutory register of historic parks and gardens, make it easier for developers to bring listed buildings back into alternative use and create a statutory list of historic place names.
• £31million of cuts to higher education in Wales were reversed by Finance Minister, Jane Hutt (Lab, Vale of Glamorgan) as the draft budget for 2016-17 was approved by the Assembly. The news was welcomed by Universities Wales, who praised the minister's “understanding”.
• The Assembly unanimously passed Kirsty Williams AM's (Lib Dem, Brecon & Radnor) Nurse Staffing Levels Bill on February 10^th. The Nurse Staffing Levels Act will place a legal duty on the Welsh NHS to ensure there are safe numbers of nurses on hospital wards.
• The UK Ministry of Justice announced the closure of ten magistrates and civil courts in Wales , which was criticised by Labour and Plaid Cymru MPs, who raised concerns about access to justice, particularly by public transport.
• A campaign was launched in Cardiff to create a directly-elected mayor. In order to trigger a referendum, 25,000 electors in the city will need to sign a petition. The cross-party campaign has the backing of some Labour councillors and Conservatives, and if the threshold is reached, a referendum could be held in autumn 2016.
• A major report by the OECD comparing the health services of the UK found the Welsh NHS was “performing no better or worse” that the rest of the UK, but criticised lack of innovation, weak leadership from the centre and poor performance monitoring. Health Minister, Mark Drakeford (Lab, Cardiff West) said, “The OECD's report....puts to rest the claims that a particular heath service in one part of the UK is better than the others.”
• An Enterprise & Business Committee inquiry into the maritime economy recommended a “whole government” approach to take advantage of renewables, and criticised a lack of EU engagement by the Welsh Government. Chair, William Graham AM (Con, South Wales East) said, “Marine renewable energy is an ever-more significant part of the maritime sector, and we believe....Wales has an opportunity to be a world-leader.”
• A Sport Wales survey revealed 1 million adults in Wales wanted to do more sport and there had been big increases in numbers regularly participating. It also found there were falls in volunteer numbers and gaps in participation – particularly between men and women and non-disabled and disabled.
• The Electoral Reform Society called for a “revitalisation” of Welsh politics, putting forward proposals for votes at 16, a citizens' committee to scrutinise ministers and the use of proportional representation in local government elections.
• On February 20^th, the Prime Minister announced a deal on a renegotiated UK membership of the European Union had been agreed with the EU Commission and EU Council. Measures include restrictions on EU migrants claiming in-work benefits and child benefit, excluding the UK from “ever closer union” and protections for London's financial service sector. The referendum will take place on 23^rd June 2016.
• Leader of the Opposition in the National Assembly, Andrew Davies (Con, South Wales Central), declared his support for the UK leaving the EU saying, “It is my belief that our future will be best served as part of a looser, economic relationship with the European Union.”
• The Business & Enterprise Committee expressed “considerable frustration” over the impact of the Active Travel Act 2013, praising the ambition of the law, but criticising lack of funding and leadership. The Welsh Government said they were spending £14million on walking and cycling infrastructure annually.
• Aston Martin announced they would construct a new luxury car at St Athan, Vale of Glamorgan, creating up to 750 jobs. The First Minister said, “We will work together....to nurture a prosperous and rewarding future for this iconic company and its skilled workforce in Wales.” While the Welsh Secretary said it was an “enormous boost” for the Welsh automotive sector.
• Revised proposals for Westminster constituency changes recommended the number of Welsh MPs be reduced from 40 to 29 by 2020. Shadow Welsh Secretary, Nia Griffith MP (Lab, Llanelli) said, “If the Conservatives were serious about cutting the cost of politics they would cut the number of unelected peers in the House of Lords.”

Projects announced in February include : A £500,000 grant to prevent flooding on sections of the A55; a 10% expansion in nurse training places; £21million in repayable finance for small and medium businesses; a proposed city deal bid for Swansea/south west Wales, potentially creating up to 33,000 jobs over 30 years and a online survey hoping to gather information from 260,000 people to determine the future needs of the NHS.

• The Welsh Lib Dems unveiled proposals for the environment, committing to zero carbon emissions, meeting 100% of electricity demand from renewables and increasing cycling rates to 25% - all by 2050.
• The Welsh Conservatives and Green Party in Wales both pledged to introduce an Autism Act in the Fifth Assembly. Mark Isherwood AM (Con, North Wales) – who chairs the cross-party autism group – said an Act, “would play a pivotal role in ensuring people with this condition are confident that they will receive the support they need."
• Plaid Cymru would introduce a Welsh Representation of the People Act which would lower the voting age to 16, trigger mandatory Assembly debates when petitions receive 10,000+ signatures and introduce electronic voting.
• UKIP announced party members would rank regional list candidates after a series of disputes over "parachuting" candidates from England. Leader in Wales, Nathan Gill MEP, said "I think it's up to the members to decide for themselves who they want to represent UKIP in Wales."
• Six 2015 Westminster candidates called for Nathan Gill to resign, criticising a lack of organisation and his handling of the candidate selection process. Cllr. Kevin Mahoney – widely expected to be a top candidate in South Wales Central, but critic of the process – was removed from the shortlist of candidates on February 6^th.
• The First Minister defended Labour's record on health at a NHS Confederation conference. He said the UK Government were determined to “run Wales down”. Opposition parties accused him of being “in denial” and of trying to “defend the indefensible”.
• The Welsh Conservatives pledged to cut ministers' pay by 10%, and use the money to support youth engagement. They also offered reforms to Assembly proceedings - proposing shorter recesses and more topical questions.
• Plaid Cymru would bid to host the Commonwealth Games in either 2026 or 2030 as well as men's and women's legs of a cycling Grand Tour. It would, “prove that we can not only produce world-class athletes but also act as a world-class host for some of the greatest championships and tournaments on earth”.
• At the Welsh Lib Dem spring conference in Cardiff, party members approved a motion denying parents the right to withdraw children from sex education lessons. UK leader, Tim Farron, called for urgent action on the Swansea tidal lagoon and for voters to challenge Labour's “sense of entitlement to rule”. Kirsty Williams added that predictions of an electoral “wipe-out” in May were wrong.
• The Greens launched their manifesto for older people, proposing that councils provide adequate seating and public toilets, increased spending on education for older learners and increased investment in energy efficiency schemes to combat fuel poverty.
• Informal discussions were held between Plaid Cymru, Lib Dems and Greens over a possible “electoral pact”, where two parties would withdraw candidates in seats where the third party could win. The talks subsequently ended without agreement and were ridiculed by Labour and Conservatives as a “stitch-up”.
• Plaid Cymru would write-off up to £6,000 of student debts for graduates who study in Wales and remain in Wales after graduation. They claim the current system subsidises English universities and is “unsustainable”.
• Labour pledged to create 100,000 apprenticeships “in areas of greatest need”, provide free childcare for working parents and cut taxes for small businesses as part of their six key pledges. The Conservatives accused them of “fantasy economics”.
• Plaid Cymru launched its Assembly election campaign in Cardiff on February 17^th. Leanne Wood promised “a well, well-educated, wealthier Wales” with improved NHS waiting times, free care for the elderly and a “fairer, more prosperous nation”.
• The Conservatives would scrap tuition fee subsidies and instead pay half of student rent bills as part of proposals for student finance. They estimate it would cost £75million. Andrew Davies said, “Accommodation costs often swallow up maintenance loans, meaning students....often struggle with everyday living costs associated with university life.”
• At their spring conference in Llandudno, the First Minister told Labour delegates the Assembly election was a “straight fight between Labour and the Conservatives”. He claimed the momentum in schools, the economy and health would be put at risk by changing government, warning voters not to elect a “rag tag coalition”.
• Plaid Cymru launched its national manifesto for Police & Crime Commissioners, calling for the abolition of the role, devolution of criminal justice and stronger neighbourhood policing teams, with greater support for victims of crime.
• Nathan Gill told delegates at UKIP's spring conference in Llandudno that powers over farming, fishing and business would transfer to Wales in the event of an EU withdrawal. UKIP also unveiled key policies for the Assembly election, including : the reintroduction of grammar schools, no income tax devolution without a referendum and directly-elected local health boards.

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Fourth Assembly In Focus : Economic Profile 2016

In about ten weeks weeks time, those of us who will bother to vote will elect a new Assembly and a "new" Welsh Government. My 2016 election coverage starts today with a mini series over three weekends focusing on three key areas of devolved public policy and how they've changed over the last five years : the economy, health and education.

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Senedd/Election Watch - January 2016

• Jonathan Edwards MP (Plaid, Carms E. & Dinefwr) criticised the formula used to determine rail fares after regulated fares – such as season tickets – rose by 1.1%. He said, “Calculating prices based on Retail Price Index (RPI) is an unpopular system which has attracted criticism from respected economists.”
  

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Election 2016 : Six Months To Go

The most exciting thing to happen at the Senedd since....
(Pic : Wales Online)

The thoughts of sitting and prospective AMs will start turning towards the 2016 National Assembly election with only six months remaining until polling day - as indicted by the countdown clock I've added to the top right.

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