After failing to make the traditional public appearances over Christmas and New Year, question marks have been raised around Liz Mountbatten-Windsor's health.
People are beginning to cotton on to the fact that, yes, one day in the future she's going to die like the rest of us.
Having said that, it doesn't take much for the media – traditional and social – to get over-excited and publish some ghoulish stuff, culminating with the infamous #mediablackout in Twitter. As someone who has two living grandmothers, one of whom's not much younger than Liz, it's all a bit vulgar and crass to me – though I suppose when you embody the constitution in one person it comes with the job.
At her age a cold can develop into something serious very quickly, but regardless of what you might think about the monarchy, I'm not going to engage in any base health speculation other than say that when the inevitable happens there'll be well-rehearsed plans in place.
A change in monarch will be, nevertheless, a big constitutional event and raises important questions – including those relating to how government works and Welsh independence.
Who gets the crown?
Whoever is the heir – in this case Chuckles – succeeds automatically. That's the end of it.
There's fanciful thinking around that the crown will skip a generation and go to (the more popular, but a bit dull) Billy, but that would require a new Act of Succession in the UK (and every other Commonwealth Realm) as well as overturning nearly a millennium of constitutional precedent.
The idea that any of this has been decided in private is absolute nonsense.
Chuckles will one day be King and that raises a number of questions on its own (which I return to later).
Is Liz too old to do her job? Can she retire?
Liz seems determined to go on until the end as is tradition, but it doesn't fit well with the 21st Century. The monarchy was created during a time when life expectancies were shorter and the King (or, in some cases, Queen) faced mortal risks that could cut their reign short – for example, they were expected to be military commanders, had to deal with umpteen pretenders and didn't have access to modern medicine.
It's one of the things I find cruel about monarchy. I'm not one of these republicans who thinks the royals "don't do anything"; Liz still has to put in a full shift when most people in public life would've long retired. Should she though? Is it right of any of us to expect her to do so? Most 90-year-olds struggle to walk.
Liz can take a step back without relinquishing the crown. The Regency Act 1937 allows for the creation of a regent (in our case a Prince Regent) who would take over the day-to-day work while the Queen would presumably stick to only the most important "figurehead" events and ceremonies. I would be very surprised if this didn't happen in the short-term and it already is happening unofficially/informally.
What sort of King (or Prince Regent) would Chuck be?
This is the big one. In his current position he's been keen to make his views known on various pet causes and issues.
He's had (some occasionally reasonable) things to say on planning and conservation. In the case of the former, it's rubbed off on the Coed Darcy development near Neath, the Swansea University Bay Campus and Parc Derwen in Bridgend – all of which have taken architectural inspiration from Charles' "model town" of Poundbury in Dorset.
There's nothing inherently wrong with that as he's entitled to his own views and beliefs as any of us are, but as a King or Prince Regent he won't be allowed to express them publicly or officially.
Unless he resists the temptation to do so, it would cause significant damage to the monarchy. Based on his track record I'm not convinced he'll be able to stay detached and that will be republicanism's biggest gift – but the time in which to make a move will be short.
Billy does seem to have learnt from his grandmother and seems far more reserved when it comes to making his views known; there's a chance he could eventually become a relatively popular Prince of Wales too amongst the Daily Express and Daily Mail crowd.
Like it or not these people - who are unlikely to be disposed towards civic nationalism in the first place - would have to be convinced about Welsh independence too and they outnumber republicans, which would increase the chances of having to retain the monarchy post-independence (A Welsh Monarchy).
So if you want to see an independent Republic of Wales (or, if you're a unionist, Republic of Britain [with or without Northern Ireland]), it'll have to happen fairly early during Charles III/George VII's reign – which could be relatively short in itself and could start sooner than we think with or without his mother in the picture.
