Senedd Watch - January 2015

• Fresh calls were made to scrap Severn Bridge tolls after fares rose in line with the Retail Price Index to become one of the world's most expensive road tolls. The bridges will return to public ownership in 2018, though Plaid Cymru warned that contract clauses could see the UK Government claw back maintenance costs until 2027.
• Plaid Cymru's education spokesperson, Simon Thomas AM (Plaid, Mid & West Wales), said schools needed extra support to use the “world class” online Hwb+ learning portal, after figures released to the party showed only a third of schools were regularly using the service.
• The Liberal Democrats accused Plaid Cymru of “astonishing hypocrisy” for campaigning in favour of a widespread introduction of a public sector £7.85 per hour “living wage”, whilst nearly 4,000 workers at three Plaid-controlled local authorities were paid below this.
• Rhodri Glyn Thomas AM and Jonathan Edwards MP (both Plaid, Carms. E & Dinefwr) called a proposed £446,000 severance agreement with chief executive of Carmarthenshire Council, Mark James, a “disgrace”. The local co-ruling Labour party said they would reject the proposal – one of a mooted ten options. It comes months after the acrimonious exit of disgraced former chief executive of Pembrokeshire, Bryn Parry-Jones.
• The Welsh Liberal Democrats said if they form a government after the 2016 Welsh Assembly election, they would introduce legislation putting a £95,000 cap on “golden goodbyes”, mirroring similar Westminster legislation.
• On January 28^th it was revealed by Pembrokeshire councillor, Jacob Williams, that the cost of Bryn Parry-Jones' exit amounted to over £150,000 in legal fees.
• A Wales Audit Office report revealed Wales was being hit harder by housing benefit reforms (aka. “Bedroom Tax”) than other parts of the UK, with rental debts rising by a quarter. The UK Department of Work & Pensions said they made up to £15million in discretionary payments available.
• A report from the Welsh Institute for Social and Economic Research, Data & Methods (WISERD) concluded that the flagship Foundation Phase is failing to meet its original aim of reducing education inequality between deprived and well-off pupils. However, other findings in the report suggest the scheme has been welcomed by teachers, staff and parents and is having a “positive impact” on some aspects of learning.
• Politicians, journalists and members of the public attended an evening vigil outside the Senedd on January 11^th to mark the deaths of 17 people in an Islamist terror attack in Paris targeted at satirical magazine Charlie Hebdo and the Jewish community. Dr Saleem Kidwai, chair of the Muslim Council of Wales, condemned the attacks without reservation saying, “truth wins over falsehood and light over darkness”.
• Both Welsh and UK governments were criticised for lowering flags to mark the death of King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia on 23^rd January, due to the country's appalling record on human rights and political repression. Simon Thomas AM described the act as “sickening” and a “gutless disgrace”. The First Minister said he “in no way condones” human rights abuses, and the Welsh Government would review their flag policy.
• Estyn reported that progress in improving literacy and numeracy standards under the Literacy & Numeracy Framework, introduced in 2013, was “modest”. They said this was due to insufficient guidance and resources from the Welsh Government.
• Finance Minister, Jane Hutt (Lab, Vale of Glamorgan), announced the spending outline for £123million allocated to Wales via the UK Government's Autumn Statement. Amongst the proposals, £70million will go towards health, while £35million will be used towards business rate relief.
• BBC Wales revealed £120million has been spent by the Welsh Government developing a property portfolio of industrial and commercial sites, including £52million on Cardiff Airport. Leader of the Opposition, Andrew Davies (Con, South Wales Central), said the Welsh Government, “should create planning permission and infrastructure improvements, but should not actually own and develop the land”.
• The latest figures on cancer survival showed a 25% drop in cancer deaths in under-75s and 20% increase in five-year survival rates despite an 18,000 increase in diagnoses. Deputy Health Minister, Vaughan Gething (Lab, Cardiff S. & Penarth), said the report “sets out the challenges” to improve the number of people treated within 62 days.
• The National Assembly approved a non-binding motion calling for the Welsh Government to no longer award procurement contracts or grants to companies with no women board members. Communities & Tackling Poverty Minister, Lesley Griffiths (Lab, Wrexham), said the government couldn't support the motion, as barring awards on these grounds would be illegal. However, the sentiment was supported.
• 19% of people waited longer than four hours at Welsh A&E departments in December 2014 (target 5%) - the worst treatment time in Wales since October 2009. The Welsh Government said A&Es had experienced their busiest December in five years, with an extra £40million allocated to alleviate winter pressures. The Welsh Conservatives said there was “nowhere for Labour to hide”, while RCN Wales director, Tina Donnelly, called for 1,000 extra acute care nurses.
• On January 28^th it was revealed ambulance response times for December 2014 were "the worst on record”, with only 42.6% of ambulances responding to life-threatening calls within 8 minutes, compared to a target of 65%. In some parts of Wales, like Rhondda Cynon Taf, it was below 35%.
• The Welsh Government released information on job creation at Welsh enterprise zones following an Information Commissioner ruling in December 2014. More than 2,000 jobs had been created and 3,000 safeguarded at a cost of £70million, but most were in Deeside, Cardiff and Anglesey. Only 94 jobs were created or protected at St Athan and just 8 in Snowdonia. Rhun ap Iorwerth AM (Plaid, Ynys Môn) said the cost-per-job - even in some of the better-performing zones - was up to four times higher than anticipated.
• A senior Welsh Government civil servant told the Public Accounts Committee that an extra Cardiff-Norwich leg could be provided, on a commercial basis, in the down-time between subsidised Cardiff-Anglesey flights. A new contract with LinksAir is set to run until 2018, but the service has been criticised for not providing value for money.
• Welsh unemployment fell to a rate of 7% in the three months to November 2014, with 103,000 people out of work. The Welsh Government said the raw unemployment and job-seekers allowance claimant counts were both lower than the same time the previous year.
• The National Assembly approved a cross-party motion by 29 votes to 21 calling for radical improvements to services for autistic children and adults, and for parties to commit to introducing an Autism Act in their 2016 manifestos. There was criticism of lengthy waits for diagnoses and a lack of ring-fencing of funds by local authorities.
• Welsh Labour said they will consider introducing legislation to end the “Right to Buy” for social housing tenants, if they form a government after the 2016 Welsh Assembly election, in order to protect dwindling social housing stocks. Shadow Housing Minister, Mark Isherwood (Con, North Wales), said Welsh Labour, “is returning to its outdated socialist dogma of the 1980s”.
• Plaid Cymru amendments to introduce a “smacking ban” to the Domestic Violence Bill were rejected by the Communities & Local Government Committee at Stage 2. Committee Chair – and supporter of the amendment – Christine Chapman AM (Lab, Cynon Valley) said she was “disappointed” but hoped an amendment would be proposed at Stage 3, calling on AMs to be given a free vote.
• In a response to calls for a cross-party agreement on the future of devolution, the Assembly Commission recommended, amongst other things, that the number of AMs increase from 60 to between 80-100, estimating the cost would range from between £9million and £17million. The Welsh Conservatives believed the overall number of politicians would need to decreased elsewhere before an Assembly expansion.
• Public Services Minister, Leighton Andrews (Lab, Rhondda), introduced the first of a proposed two Local Government Bills to the National Assembly on January 27^th. The Bill outlines the arrangements for local authorities to merge voluntarily by April 2018. At the same time, he rejected three mooted voluntary mergers, saying he wasn't persuaded by the vision.
• The National Assembly unanimously approved the Higher Education Bill on January 27^th. The Higher Education Act will provide a new regulatory framework for higher education in Wales and ensure “fair access” for Welsh learners.
• Cardiff University's Prof. Sally Holland was appointed the new Children's Commissioner for Wales, succeeding Keith Towler, who leaves the post after seven years. There had been criticism for the delay in appointing a new commissioner, but the Communities & Tackling Poverty Minister described Prof. Holland as a “strong ambassador” for children's rights.
• A survey on Welsh language use showed the percentage of fluent Welsh-speakers had fallen over the last ten years from 58% of all Welsh-speakers to 46%. However, use of Welsh socially and in work had risen slightly – though there remained a tendency for Welsh-speakers to use English online and when dealing with authorities.
• The Welsh Government launched the “traffic light ranking” replacement for school banding on January 29^th. 238 schools were ranked the highest grade of “green”, while 81 schools were ranked “red”. Education Minister, Huw Lewis (Lab, Merthyr Tydfil & Rhymney), said the new system meant, “there is no hiding place for schools that don't deliver for the most disadvantaged pupils”.

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Local Government Bill : Council mergers edge closer (sort of)

We still have no idea what form local government reorganisation will take. The latest law introduced
to the Assembly will, however, give councils the opportunity to take the initiative themselves
....unless they've already taken the initiative themselves, of course.
(Pic : Wales Online)

A little over a year to the day since the Williams Commission reported on local government and public service reforms, Public Services Minister, Leighton Andrews (Lab, Rhondda), introduced the Local Government Bill to the National Assembly on Tuesday (27^th January), with the aim of outlining the process for voluntary mergers between local authorities.

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Assembly debates future of autism services

AMs recently debated the need for an Autism Act following the current
failure of a trail-blazing autism strategy to deliver on the ground.
(Pic : National Autistic Society Cymru)

Yesterday, the National Assembly debated a cross-party individual member's motion on autism services. The motion welcomed achievements resulting from the existing plan on autism, but demanded greater clarity on the care and support families dealing with autism require, enshrined in Welsh law via an Autism Act.

This is an issue close to the hearts of a large number of AMs, and the National Autistic Society Cymru (NAS) are obviously one of the more effective lobbying organisations in the Senedd.

As a result, there were an unusually large number of speakers, and many of them repeated the same points. So for the sake of brevity I'll sum up those points first.

• Wales was one of the first nations to introduce a specific autism strategy (in 2008 pdf), and this was a source of pride for AMs, but they're disappointed in how it has been delivered.
• There's no ring-fencing of autism funds by local authorities, with some agreeing to do so voluntarily and others not. Current funding arrangements (on a year-by-year basis) mean councils have no opportunity to develop long-term plans.
• There are very serious problems getting an autism diagnosis – especially children – in the Hywel Dda Local Health Board (Pembs., Carms., Ceredigion) with waits as long as seven years for a diagnosis. This means some children enter secondary school without a diagnosis, which affects access to specialist services.
• A survey by the NAS showed massive dissatisfaction amongst parents/carers, as well as adults and children with autism. 53% of parents called the diagnostic process "painful", while 96% of autistic adults said there was a lack of professional understanding. Only 16% of patients were satisfied with their transition to social care.
• There was cross-party support for an Autism Act in the Fifth Assembly (after May 2016), which would enshrine the rights of children and adults with autism, as well as their parents/carers, in law.

The debate started with Mark Isherwood AM (Con, North Wales) - who chairs the Assembly's Cross-Party Group on Autism. He said (clip) there were up to 30,000 children and adults in Wales with autistic spectrum disorders (ASDs). Despite the strategy, he said more needs to be done, with greater statutory duties placed on local authorities. He called upon all parties to commit to introducing an Autism Act in their 2016 manifestos.

Mark said that although the NAS said the strategy was a "world first", people with autism usually only access treatments and therapies if it's presented alongside another medical condition or learning disability, even though autism is a condition in its own right. With problems facing those with autism including "painful" diagnosis processes, postcode lotteries, a lack of understanding by managers and, in schools, illegal short-term exclusions (Whipperines & Class Clowns), any future Act needs to include diagnostic and post-diagnostic support to ensure the "fundamentals are in place first".

Alun Davies AM (Lab, Blaenau Gwent) said the strategy was a "good strategy, with broad support" (clip). He said the fault isn't with the strategy but with delivery, which was, "at best patchy, at worse seriously deficient". He highlighted serious issues with autism services in his own area of Blaenau Gwent, and the Assembly specifically has a duty to ensure the strategy is delivered, as it's not just a matter for local government.

Paul Davies AM (Con, Preseli Pembs.) said he long supported a need for timely diagnosis (clip), and although there are examples of good practice in Pembrokeshire, waits were excessive (the seven year figure mentioned above) – with an average of two children diagnosed a month. Paul said early intervention was needed to ensure the long-term well being of autistic children as they go through school.

He accepts that diagnosing autism isn't easy as it's down to monitoring behaviour closely. That means teachers need proper training in recognising ASDs. Also, Careers Wales provide vital support to adults with autism looking for work, but they don't have the knowledge to work with these adults. Paul said, "being first (to introduce an autism strategy) isn't the same as being first rate".

Lindsay Whittle AM (Plaid, South Wales East) said he had three major concerns (clip); firstly, the lack of monitoring by the Welsh Government of autism services. Secondly, a concern raised by a a constituent about whether teachers are properly trained to deal with ASD pupils.

Thirdly, he raised a good point (often overlooked) about older people with ASD, as people "can't grow out of it" and it remains for the rest of their lives. Lindsay warned this will, "become a serious challenge for health and social care services", and more data was needed on over-65s with autism as part of any future Act.

William Powell AM (Lib Dem, Mid & West Wales), said the Cross-Party Group was "dynamic" and meetings were often very well attended (clip). He paid tribute to the NAS, saying that serious shortcomings in provision were "feeding clamour for an Autism Act", adding that in his capacity as Chair of the Petitions Committee they're dealing with a petition about autism diagnoses in Hywel Dda LHB. He said families were, "showing enormous resilience" and were entitled to have their needs enshrined in law.

Jeff Cuthbert AM (Lab, Caerphilly), said Wales needs to recognise and support parents and those who work with autistic children (clip). He plugged the Autism Heroes Awards which were established by a constituent. Jeff believes the Welsh Government should compliment their work by engaging with them, but this cannot replace the statutory duties placed on authorities. He wasn't opposed to an Autism Act in principle, but would need to be persuaded of the benefits, and would prefer the current strategy was properly delivered instead.

Angela Burns AM (Con, Carms. E & S. Pembs.) described the strategy as "useful" (clip), as it focused minds and concentrated resources. Unfortunately, in too many cases it hasn't helped at all, citing waiting lists in her own area 200+ cases long. Angela said there were too many interim diagnoses, and when schools suspect autism in pupils, there was often a slow response from local health boards.

Aled Roberts AM (Lib Dem, North Wales), gave an example of parents of autistic children in Wrexham who said the bureaucracy was in place, but they were seeing no improvements (clip), with some North Walian councils "skimming" autism funding to finance the bureaucracy and management of the schemes themselves. He described the NAS figures as "frightening", but there needs to be a look at whether an Autism Act in itself would improve the situation.

Keith Davies AM (Lab, Llanelli) said, "raising awareness isn't the greatest issue facing us", but the major issue was strategy at a local and national level (clip). He said in an ideal world they wouldn't proceed with legislation, but this is one area where collaboration between local authorities would benefit everyone.

In response, Health Minister Mark Drakeford (Lab, Cardiff West) said there was £12million in new funding allocated to support the aims of the autism strategy and improve lives (clip). While he admitted there was always more to be done, he was working with interested parties to refresh the ASD action plan, but said parties were waiting to see how the regulations resulting from the Social Services & Wellbeing Act 2014 and proposed special educational needs legislation would impact their work.

The refresh plan was due to be launched this month but has, as a result of the legislative/regulatory proposals, been delayed. The Minister said that as there are immediate concerns about autism services, he'll introduce an interim delivery plan by the end of March 2015.

Former Deputy Minister for Children & Social Services, Gwenda Thomas AM (Lab, Neath), intervened to say that a child must receive care and support whether there was a formal diagnosis or not, and this was clearly stated in the Social Services Act.

The Minister continued by saying diagnosis is never a fixed process with autism as it responds to individual development, though funding for ASD will be permanently within the block grants given to local authorities. He said there wasn't enough time to take a Bill through the Assembly before April 2016, but parties could include it in their manifestos for the election.

Rhodri Glyn Thomas AM (Plaid, Carms E. & Dinefwr) summed up what the others had said (clip), but raised his own point about provision being even worse for those seeking services in Welsh. Rhodri said every case was individual and it's hard to generalise ASD, howeverg people said "everything would be fine once Wales had a strategy", but now artificial barriers are being put in place and the challenge is to ensure children and adults alike have access to the services they need.

The motion was agreed by 29 votes to 21.

"First The Worst...."

Stormont and Westminster passed Autism Acts in 2011 and 2009 respectively - mainly
to do in Northern Ireland and England what Wales has already done without a law.
(Pic : Autism Northern Ireland)

OK, Wales has a feather in its cap because we were one of the first nations to publish an autism strategy.

The Welsh Government/Labour have a fetish for doing things though strategies, guidance and regulations, so it's not exactly a shock that - yet again - one of their much-vaunted strategies is failing to deliver on the ground.

One reason why local councils and health boards are under strain is because the detection and diagnoses of autism has radically changed over the last 10-15 years. What would've once been considered an "eccentric personality" is now diagnosed as Asperger's Syndrome. There's an outside chance – backed by 2013 guidelines from the American Psychiatric Association – that ASDs are over-diagnosed.

Despite all that, there's a clear desperate need for all those families and individuals who live with autism to have access to the services they require, and there was cross-party commitment to that in yesterday's debate.

Although it's still more than a year away, we're starting to get an idea of what legislation we might see in the Fifth Assembly – though it's unlikely I'll be around to cover it. It wouldn't surprise me if all four parties end up putting an Autism Act in their manifestos in some form, which will effectively guarantee its introduction.

Are the needs of people with certain diseases best served through legislation though?

I can see the arguments for and against an Autism Act. There's a precedent in the Assembly for "disease laws" in the form of the Asbestos Disease Bill – though it has a very different aim – but at the same time a law could lead to the Welsh Government and local authorities being forced into making promises they can't keep, especially with a disorder that's often difficult and time-consuming to diagnose and manage like autism.

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Making tracks in west Wales

There are growing calls to reopen a railway between Aberystwyth and Carmarthen.
(Pic : BBC Wales)

The railway between Carmarthen and Aberystwyth closed to passengers in 1964-65, with freight services - which still ran along part of the line - withdrawn in the early 1970s. As a result, any attempt to travel between Carmarthenshire and Ceredigion by rail now means a torturous journey via Shrewsbury, Hereford, Cardiff and Swansea.

At the moment, Carmarthen-Lampeter-Aberystwyth is served by the T1 TrawsCymru long-distance bus service, which has been criticised for excessively long journey times. Despite the existence of this service, there has been talk of reopening the line for several years (related 2009 post from Syniadau with a video showing one option for the route), but a formal campaign – Traws Link Cymru – was formed in the last year or so to lobby in favour of the project (website with project overview here).

The campaign is gathering pace, with a official statements of support from : Carmarthenshire Council, numerous community and town councils along the former route and a large number of AMs and MPs. Campaigners are also set to meet the Welsh Secretary, Stephen Crabb MP (Con, Preseli Pembs.), at some point. A (relatively) well-attended public meeting was held earlier this month, with plans for further activities in the near future.

Simon Thomas AM (Plaid, Mid & West Wales) held a short debate in the National Assembly on this issue back in March 2014 (below). Meanwhile, Carwyn Jones has expressed his tacit support for the principle of the project during First Minister's Questions (I remember him saying it at least once but can't remember precisely when, so don't hold me to that). He gave no firm commitment for reasons which will become obvious.

An Irish Case Study

Ireland's Western Rail Corridor is a similar project, but
is it an appropriate direct comparison?
(Pic : paulsalveson.org.uk)

Comparisons have been drawn to the Western Railway Corridor in the Republic of Ireland, which is a proposal to link Sligo and Limerick along Ireland's west coast. At the moment, all lines lead to Dublin in the same way Welsh railways go east-west. A section enabling trains to travel between Galway and Limerick opened in 2010 at a cost of around €107million (£84million at 2015 prices). The total cost of reopening the line to/from Sligo was, in 2004, estimated to be around €366million (£286million [2015]).

Since reopening, there's been criticism of low passenger numbers between Galway and Limerick (Galway alone is larger than Carmarthen, Lampeter and Aberystwyth combined, while Limerick is about twice the size of Llanelli). The service is subsidised by the Irish Government, with cheap online fares and tax incentives to encourage people to buy season tickets - but it's right to point out that service frequencies are very low indeed with maybe no more than 5 trains a day in each direction.

The crucial difference between Aber-Carms and the Western Corridor section is that, in Ireland's case, large sections of the track were already there and were used as a freight line. All the Irish Government needed to do was (re)build the infrastructure for passenger services (stations, improved track etc.). So the Western Corridor is more comparable to the reopening of the Vale of Glamorgan and Ebbw Vale lines.

Aber-Carms would be a major engineering project above and beyond that of the Borders Line in Scotland, and would arguably be the most extensive reopening of a railway on the island of Great Britain since the Beeching cuts. The old alignment is just over 90km long (56miles), and almost all of it has been pulled up apart from the Gwili railway on the outskirts of Carmarthen.

The Possible Route

Click to enlarge
(Pic : Adapted from Google Earth)

I would guess stations would/could be built at Glangwili Hospital, Bronwydd, Pencader, Llanybydder, Lampeter, Tregaron, Llanilar and Llanfairian. Some of the smaller stops would presumably be request stops like those on the Heart of Wales line.

The Benefits

Linking three (maybe eventually four) university towns along the western coast could boost economic,
social and research ties, helping to rebalance the Welsh economy away from the M4 corridor.
(Pic : The Telegraph)

The obvious one - it makes it a lot easier to get to Aberystwyth by public transport from the south and vice versa (Swansea, Cardiff and London) whilst reconnecting a large part of Carmarthenshire and Ceredigion to the rail network. Considering the relatively poor state of north-south road links in west Wales, journey times are likely to be competetive with road.

The catchment area, although rural, will be physically large with great opportunities to provide park and rides as well as linking with local bus services. Public transport provision is often poor in rural areas, so encouraging people out of their cars there is often ignored, as the emphasis is usually focused on urban areas. Reopening the line would have a knock-on positive impact on pollution and accident rates, with the A44 between Aberystwyth and Llangurig being the most dangerous road in the country and the A487 not faring much better.

Creating "commuter villages" in and around the three larger towns – Aberystwyth, Lampeter and Carmarthen – might spread out development and enable these villages to retain some of their local services like pubs and schools.

If this were combined with a Bangor-Porthmadog link and a re-engineering of Dovey Junction it would eventually connect four university towns. This would guarantee minimum passenger numbers, but also develop economic and academic links right along the west coast to compete with the "city universities".

In the long, long, long term, reopening this line could enable serious consideration being given to reconnecting Newcastle Emlyn, Aberaeron and Cardigan to the rail network.

The Challenges

Do not think for one second that this is going to be a simple case of lobbying
for funds. There are serious challenges facing this campaign that need to be overcome.
(Pic : Network Rail)

Reinstating the old route – Most of the former route is development-free but there are areas where the route has been built on, mainly for homes or cycle paths. The route can be engineered to avoid these areas, but the old route will have been the most logical path in the first place (short of radically new alignments). This is down to the shortsightedness of planning authorities. Though there's a bit more protection for former railways nowadays, it's too late for this project.

Farm access and (negative) environmental impact – The former route is littered with crossings to and from farms. Network Rail are supposed to be phasing out level crossings, as they're not popular with transport unions and are a safety hazard. I don't think they'll take kindly to including so many unmanned crossings. They might have to be replaced by bridges, which is an added expense.

Reopening a railway may not be associated with environmental damage, but obviously there would be as the route crosses or passes near environmentally-sensitive areas.

The Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) – My personal opinion is that regardless of fiscal tests, as many former railways should be reopened for its own sake where practical (before I'm accused of being a buzzkill).Unfortunately, this is the primary reason why it won't happen.

The political will is there, and I suspect if all of the trackbed were still in place Welsh Government backing for the project would be stronger (and the price tag would probably be no more than £100-150million).

A full CBA (or cost-benefit ratio) usually costs around £20,000-30,000. If the ratio on return of investment is below 2:1 (for every £1 spent, there's a £2 economic return), public authorities won't consider it "high value". That's very technocratic, but it's supposed to prevent the creation of white elephants and discourage "pork barrel spending" , even if at the same time it puts a set of concrete shoes on socially-important projects like this.

A potential price tag of £650million has been bandied about, so this would have to (theoretically) have a wider economic impact of at least ~£1billion to get the levels of return on investment necessary to be approved.

Taking into consideration the relatively small catchment area (population wise) and likely low passenger numbers, the Carms-Aber rail link will fail any CBA instantly (as would my idea of reopening the Mid Wales line). You can have as much heavyweight political support as you want, but these tests determine whether big projects go ahead or not.

AMs and other senior politicians should be well aware of this, but they're not in a position to quibble (because they're pathologically unable to tell the truth and say "no" during an election year) so I'll have to play "the bad guy" for them.

Service levels – It's too early to say what sort of service levels people could expect if it were reopened. You would presume the service would mainly run as a shuttle between Carmarthen and Aberystwyth (due to lack of space on the south Wales mainline) with a few direct trains each day further beyond – probably to Swansea and/or Cardiff (which would make reopening the Swansea District Line for Cardiff-bound trains a higher priority in itself).

The old track alignment between Llanybydder and Strata Florida is remarkably straight and could enable high running speeds. This is offset by some very difficult terrain between Carmarthen and Pencader – though a diversion via Alltwalis has been mentioned. If the line were designed with an average running speed of between 60-70mph then it's possible to get the journey time down to nearly an hour (making Aber-Swansea ~1hr50mins, Aber-Cardiff ~2hrs30mins), but that requires a high quality route that will be expensive to engineer.

Click to enlarge
(Pic : Adapted from Google Earth)

Getting in/out of Aberystwyth (above) – If the economic value for money is the biggest socio-political challenge, this is the single biggest engineering challenge - though there are others elsewhere in the form of reinstated bridges and tunnels. The approach from the south around Pen Dinas and through Llanfairian (above) has been completely built on. The cheapest/easiest option would be to stop the line short of Aberystwyth and build a park and ride, linked to the town centre/railway station by bus. That would defeat the purpose of the rail link though as it would be inconvenient to change modes of transport.

Another option would be to use the path of the Vale of Rheidol narrow gauge railway for a few miles, then create a link to the "main route" south to Carmarthen. This would be rather expensive due to the landscape it would have to cross which requires several deep cuttings and/or short tunnels. It would provide an opportunity to build a station serving the Glanyafon Industrial Estate and with a footpath/cycle path it could link directly to Coleg Ceredigion - but at the expense of stations in Llanfairian and Llanilar.

A further option would be to tunnel under Penparcau, which is certainly doable but depending on the construction method and underlying geology would likely cost £50-60million on its own. This would probably be the best option, but I'm no engineer.

One of the only other options left, therefore, is to CPO the former route, which will mean demolishing several buildings and possibly more than 100 homes (because several blocks of flats have been built on the former line). This means legal challenges, local opposition and a significant additional cost. An alternative would be to allow some limited street-running, but I'm presuming this will be a heavy rail project.

You could create a new route following a ridge around Pen Dinas and going through a caravan park instead (perhaps on a viaduct), but that would be a significant engineering outlay like the tunnel.

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Foundation Fazed

Is the Welsh Government's flagship Foundation Phase all its
cracked up to be? Despite the headlines, it probably is.
(Pic : Twyn School)

Last week it was reported that a review of the Foundation Phase by WISERD has shown it's failing to live up to one of its key aims, which is to reduce the gap in performance between children from well-off families and poorer families.

All of the relevant documents are available here, but you're not going to go through all that, are you? You're not stupid or masochistic enough to do that. Luckily for you, I am.

As you can tell, the report and its supporting documents are much more extensive than the bite size account given by the BBC and Western Mail, so it's worth taking a closer looks to see what impact Foundation Phase - which remains one of the more memorable and radical policies introduced since devolution – is making.

Foundation Phase : An Overview

The Foundation Phase takes children out of the classroom and
allows them to learn through self-directed and structured play.
(Pic : Carrog School)

The Foundation Phase was launched during the Third Assembly by the then Education Minister, Jane Hutt (Lab, Vale of Glamorgan), but its origins lie in a ten-year education plan - one of the first such strategies developed after the National Assembly's establishment.

The original Foundation Phase report, published in 2003, underlined a number of shortcomings in educational attainment for pupils aged 3-7 (Nursery up to and including Year 2).

• Pupils were spending too much time on desk-based activities.
• Pupils weren't spending enough time developing creative and communication skills, and in some cases were introduced to formal literacy lessons before they were ready.
• Insufficient staffing levels for younger age groups.
• Pupils weren't given enough independence to learn.

The review believed this was a direct result of an over-formal approach to early years teaching, which in areas like reading and writing was said to be "counter-productive". Pedagogical research showed the most effective ways for children to learn at this age involve, "problem-solving, exploration, active involvement and language development through play".

The Nordic Countries (in particular Sweden and Finland) have a much more relaxed approach to early-years education, where formal literacy and numeracy lessons doesn't start until much later in school life. These nations often have exceptionally higher attainment rates too.

The Welsh Government decided they were going to come up with a Welsh version, hence Foundation Phase, which would involve "learning through play" in order to meet developmental needs of children as individuals.

In practice this means younger children are guided to figure out certain concepts for themselves, with teachers and supervisors structuring the play – whether indoors, outdoors or through formal lessons. This has resulted in a whole host of different lesson plans and activities being made available either by the Welsh Government or outside organisations.

The Learning Wales website lists the sorts of activities Foundation Phase pupils do. For example, they learn basic mathematical concepts using toys (i.e. number of toy cows in a field) or through activities like cooking (which introduce concepts like measurement); while literacy and communication skills are developed through something called "circle time" (American-style "show and tell") or discussing favourite books.

It sounds a bit "wishy washy new age teaching" but it does have a certain logic behind it. These school days sound significantly more enjoyable and engaging than anyone reading this will remember, and I suppose you can say it tricks kids into learning.

The Review's Findings

Jobs for the girlos. Foundation Phase has resulted in a dramatic improvement in staff:pupil ratios,
and has been broadly welcomed by both teachers and parents alike - though not without specific concerns.
(Pic : Swansea Council)

The findings themselves (dated from the 2011-12 academic year) were split up onto several categories on separate documents, so I'll only pick out the most important conclusions.

• Parents support the principle of the Foundation Phase and have a firm grasp of what it's all about, though 72% would like further information and few parents were involved in day-to-day running. There's also a link between increased enjoyment of school and the teaching methods deployed during the scheme.
• Staff : pupil ratios have changed from 1:19 to 1:10, though only 50% of schools met the recommended 1:8 ratio for 3-5 year olds and 1:15 for 5-7 year olds. The numbers of staff with the prerequisite qualifications has also exceeded expectations, and there are more qualified staff in Wales compared to England. There was resistance amongst a significant minority of staff when Foundation Phase was introduced, and this existed more amongst Welsh-medium staff than English-medium staff and pilot schools. Teachers were generally satisfied with the levels of training and support their received, but there were concerns about "mixed messages" from the Welsh Government which means some teachers are calling for more specific advice.
• There were mixed feelings about the Foundation Phase has on pupils transfering to to Key Stage 2 (ages 7-11), with 19% of teachers saying Foundation Phase was having a negative impact on KS2 (compared to 25% who thought it was positive) . Although there were no major qualms about end of Foundation Phase assessments, there are concerns about levels of uncertainty. Despite this, 85% of parents were happy with reading and numeracy tests taking place in KS2.
• There were no variations between how English and Welsh-medium schools implemented Foundation Phase. 42% of Foundation Phase staff believe that the scheme has improved Welsh-language skills amongst both EM and WM pupils – even use of Welsh when no adults were present. It's said children who don't speak Welsh at home are benefiting the most from Foundation Phase, but EM pupils' English skills had improved more compared to their Welsh.
• Schools spent £15,000 on average improving their indoor environments and £18,000 outdoors (used on average 2/3 times a week, sometimes every day) in preparation for Foundation Phase. Schools said funding would be the factor they would change most about the scheme, particularly for outdoor activities. There was a link between learning outdoors and children being more physically active.
• Schools said their approach to Foundation Phase was "evolving", with some introducing formal literacy and numeracy lessons in the morning to ensure children perform well in KS2 literacy and numeracy tests - with gender gaps persisting in subjects like English and Maths.
• There was broad agreement that Foundation Phase is having a "positive impact" on pupils' well being, attendance levels, attitudes to learning and confidence – in particular boys. However, there was less of a consensus on the positive impact towards literacy, numeracy and amongst more-able pupils.
• The Foundation Phase hasn't done as much to combat social inequalities as it aspired too, with no significant changes (except in isolated cases). There's continuing under-performance in attainment and attendance amongst children who receive free school meals and those with special needs. Focused and targeted intervention, instead of universal programmes like Foundation Phase, are "generally accepted" as better.

A foundation to build on

For the love of all that is holy, this report SHOULD NOT be used
as an excuse for another round of education policy tinkering.
(Pic : Wales Online)

As much as you would like me to pick holes in the policy I'm not going to as even the report says the findings aren't "fully conclusive".

Despite some of the slightly-critical reports being produced on the effectiveness of this programme (most have, in fact, been well-balanced between good and bad points), policy-makers are on to something and it's still too early to judge.

Although It's clear this hasn't yet been the transformative magic bullet in early years education the Welsh Government would like it to be, one of the key problems in education policy over the last 5-10 years is that if something doesn't work immediately there's a panic and then a clamour to alter it straight away.

Politicians and civil servants then try and chop and change on the hop, meaning teachers end up bogged down in ever changing guidance and pointers. That goes against the whole ethos of Foundation Phase - while attainment is very important, it isn't the main aim of this - and I hope the Welsh Government resist the temptation to tinker this time.

I suppose the only people who have the levels of knowledge and experience to make a proper judgement on Foundation Phase are primary school teachers/support workers themselves. Judging from the full range of key findings from WISERD, there are probably more positives than negatives – but positives don't make headlines, do they.

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The Parc Slip Monster

Celtic Energy's inability to fill a hole they dug has left
a murky "lake" for local communities to deal with.
(Pic : BBC Wales)

Just before Christmas, the issue of open-cast mining in south west Wales reared it's head again after an intervention by a group of Assembly Members, worried about faltering restoration plans at two former mines.

Caerphilly-based Celtic Energy – listed on the recent Western Mail Top 300 as the 56^th largest company by turnover in Wales - transferred ownership of four open-cast sites to British Virgin Islands registered subsidiary, Oak Regeneration. The two largest sites are Parc Slip near Kenfig Hill - which straddles the border between Neath Port Talbot (NPT) and Bridgend (BCBC) – and East Pit near Cwmllynfell in the Amman Valley.

Oak Regeneration are tasked with restoring the two sites following the expiration of mining licences. They propose to develop a garden village at Parc Slip and a resort at East Pit. In order to fund these works, Oak Regeneration were pressing for further extensions to mining licences.

There's a huge coal seem stretching from Margam to Pencoed. Most of it is under the Cefn Hirgoed Common and Sarn, so the only realistic extraction point is towards the Margam end, which has either been open-cast already or is farmland.

Extensions to mining licences are often highly-controversial and strongly opposed in local communities as it's a particularly dirty and noisy industry and renders previously open-access land useless for decades (more at the end of Digging deep into deals done dirt cheap).

Perhaps Oak Regeneration hoped the "ambitious" restoration proposals would swing licence decisions and public opinion in their favour, to the point that some local councillors were won over by the plans. Both NPT and BCBC dilly-dallied on issuing enforcement notices (as the respective planning authorities), which would legally-bind the company to immediately start work on restoring the sites back to normal. Mining even continued at East Pit after the licence expired.

The Serious Fraud Office (SFO) intervened and several Oak Regeneration directors found themselves in court accused of attempting to defraud Bridgend, NPT and Powys councils. In February 2014 the case was dismissed, and an attempt to restart the case failed late last year. By the looks of it the SFO tried altering the charges after the case went to court, but because no money changed hands there was little hard evidence to implicate the defendants.

The cost of restoring both mines is estimated to be £157million, but Oak Regeneration are reported to have only set aside a paltry £8million. Unless extensions to mining licences are granted, it's likely that the resulting enforcement notices would bankrupt Oak Regeneration, and the cost of restoring the mines will fall on NPT, BCBC and the Welsh Government.

Although she wasn't mentioned in relation to the intervention, Bethan Jenkins AM (Plaid, South Wales West) is one of the few AMs who has spoken out consistently on this and has campaigned on open-cast mining since she was first elected.

It's also right to say she's often given short shrift by Welsh Government ministers – usually Carl Sargeant (Lab, Alyn & Deeside) and previously John Griffiths AM (Lab, Newport East) – when pressing for answers in the Assembly.

Since it's become more obvious that the sites are unlikely to be restored, the rest of the AMs in South Wales West have caught up Keystone Cops style – up to and including Carwyn Jones himself (though he did know about this).

The AMs are calling for Celtic Energy - Oak Regeneration's parent company - to stump up the restoration money. Celtic Energy have sung from the same hymn sheet as Oak Regeneration : extend mining licences to raise restoration funds. In light of falling coal prices it's unlikely to raise enough.

It isn't limited to this part of Wales either. Although Bethan's the most prominent campaigner on this issue in the Assembly, others – like Lynne Neagle AM (Lab, Torfaen) - have expressed concerns about a proposed open-cast mine near Fart Egg in her constituency, while protests against the Ffos-y-fran mine on the outskirts of Merthyr have rumbled for the best part of 25 years.

This isn't a particularly popular industry, regardless of whether it provides jobs or not.


This is why Wales can't have nice things....

Is this what we're getting?
Nope, think again....
(Pic : bridgendbites.com)

There's been a clear lack of foresight by the local authorities, the mining companies and the Welsh Government which - unless a solution is found - could leave a scar on the landscape that will last generations.

Open-cast mines can be and are restored successfully, demonstrated (ironically) at Parc Slip.

The eastern half of Parc Slip open-cast, on the outskirts of Tondu, was fully restored in the 1980s-1990s and is now a popular nature reserve (pictured above). If you went there today you would barely know it used to be a mine. To the west, there's a poorly fenced-off moonscape and a massive hole filling with water. I don't know what East Pit is like, but I'm presuming it's similar.

There are obvious safety concerns. Depending on the rocks around it, the water is likely to be either very acidic or very alkaline, so there's no way it can be treated to become a pleasant "lake". It'll either have to be back filled or pumped out and disposed of properly. The water's also so blue it looks like a tropical lagoon, but anyone tempted to take a dip during the summer would be swimming in bleach.

Back in 2013, Cllr. Luke Ellis (Lab, Pyle) warned people to stay away after reports of trespassing, but the water's even higher now. So greater efforts will need to be made to keep people away.

Then there's the flooding risk. It's taken about 5 years to fill 60-70 metres of mine workings. Judging by what I've seen there's only another two to three years left until there's a real threat the "lake" will be over-capacity.

If the "lake" breached, the River Kenfig (which is right next to the mine and the only obvious place for the water to go) is too small to cope, so it could cause flooding downstream in Pyle and North Cornelly. That's bad enough on it's own, but it would be an ecological disaster too, as polluted water will head for Kenfig Burrows - a Site of Special Scientific Interest.

Open-cast mining is safer than drift and deep mining at the expense of the environment. Having said that, as long as power stations like Aberthaw and key industries like the Port Talbot steelworks continue to need coal, it's better to source that coal locally and move it by rail than import it.

In the medium to long-term, Aberthaw power station (and other coal-fired power stations around the UK) will either be replaced or close due to poor emissions standards, while TATA are/were considering opening a drift mine in Margam. Therefore, it looks as though open-cast doesn't have much of a future.

Celtic Energy and Oak Regeneration have been underhand, having sold NPT, BCBC and the Welsh Government magic beans. The latter can't say they weren't warned either.

This has always been about extending mining licences. The regeneration projects are a pipe dream that companies are under no obligation to deliver. Housing developments, which Celtic Energy have been plugging since the AMs' intervention, are moot. Nobody seriously thinks Oak Regeneration - a company without a pot to piss in - would be able to oversee a garden village (which would probably cost £450-500million) at Parc Slip, do they? We'll be lucky if they grow trees there again.

So you can see what's going to happen. It'll either be left as it is for the foreseeable future and become a potential serious environmental hazard. Or, there'll be no choice but to extend mining licences to prevent NPT and BCBC, probably the Welsh Government too, being left with a massive clean up bill as Oak Regeneration go bust. I wouldn't want to see that happen because costs will be be passed on to taxpayers.

A Machiavellian part of me does want that to happen though, because the Welsh Government have been complacent on open-cast mining for years (minerals policy is devolved - MTAN). A nice big bill to bail out a dodgy offshore company would be just the kick up the backside they desperately need.

This is why I get annoyed when politicians say "sustainable" because, as the Welsh Government often prove, they don't practice what they preach. There's absolutely nothing "sustainable" about what's happening at Kenfig Hill.Maybe they won't see open-cast as such a neighbourly industry anymore and start to think about proper regulation, including absolute cast-iron guarantees (perhaps backed by legislation) of financing for restoration projects before mining licences are granted.

Ultimately, the reason why governments introduce so much of the "obstructive red tape" businesses complain about is because some companies continuously breach the trust of local communities this way.

Right, what are we going to call it?

"Lake Sargeant"? "Llyn Carwyn"?

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Senedd Watch - December 2014

• The Welsh Government will receive an extra £123million as a result of the UK Chancellor's autumn statement, while advanced discussions are to be held regarding a proposed £1billion tidal lagoon in Swansea Bay. It was estimated partial devolution of tax-varying powers - in line with the Wales Act 2014, which was granted Royal Assent on December 17th – could eventually be worth up to £3billion.
• Cardiff University's Prof. Max Munday said tax powers shouldn't be devolved until detailed information on the Welsh economy, inward investment and support for businesses was provided by the Welsh Government - echoing long-standing concerns of the National Assembly's Business & Enterprise Committee.
• Education Minister, Huw Lewis (Lab, Merthyr Tydfil & Rhymney), introduced the Qualifications Bill on December 2^nd. It'll create Qualifications Wales, a new executive body to regulate qualifications and awarding bodies. The Minister said the proposed law ensures, “decisions about qualifications are taken....in the interest of Welsh learners”.
• Kirsty Williams AM (Lib Dem, Brecon & Radnor) introduced the Safe Nursing Staffing Levels Bill on December 3^rd, which will place duties on health bodies to ensure a minimum ratio between the numbers of registered nurses, and both patients and health care support workers.
• The National Assembly approved a cross-party motion on December 3rd by 34 votes to 10 with 2 abstentions calling for the devolution of policing. The First Minister demanded the UK Government stop “cherry-picking” the conclusions of Silk II, calling for parity with Scotland, but falling short of supporting devolution of the criminal justice system.
• Rhodri Glyn Thomas AM (Plaid, Carms. E & Dinefwr) later called for Police & Crime Commissioners to be scrapped when their current five year term ends due to the annual £3.2million cost of the posts, calling it an “unnecessary tier of bureaucracy”.
• The National Assembly approved a Plaid Cymru motion by 33 votes to 14 welcoming trade between the US and Wales, but expressing caution over aspects of the proposed Transatlantic Trade & Investment Partnership (TTIP) – notably private involvement in public services and investor-state dispute settlement agreements.
• The UK Information Commissioner ordered the Welsh Government to release details on job creation and investment levels at seven enterprise zones, following a complaint from Plaid Cymru. Business & Economy Minister, Edwina Hart (Lab, Gower), said it was “sensitive information”, but Rhun ap Iorwerth AM (Plaid, Ynys Môn) said the public “deserve to be told the truth”.
• Edwina Hart announced a not-for-profit Welsh Government subsidiary will be established with the intention of running Welsh rail services from 2018 following devolution of the rail franchise. Plaid Cymru supported the move, but Shadow Transport Minister, Byron Davies (Con, South Wales West), said the exclusion of private companies was “Marxist”.
• UKIP held their first Welsh annual conference at Margam Park, announcing that former Plaid Cymru and Conservatives councillors had defected. They said they would carry out a “massive assault” on the National Assembly in 2016 and were confident of becoming the official opposition. Nathan Gill MEP was formally announced as the leader of the party's Welsh branch.
• A Sheffield University report suggests a 50p per unit minimum price for alcohol - proposed as part of the forthcoming Public Health Bill - could save the economy £882million over 20 years, reduce alcohol consumption by 4% in Wales, and lead to 53 fewer deaths and 1,400 fewer hospital admissions.
• Public Services Minister, Leighton Andrews (Lab, Rhondda), expressed disappointment that only 11 of Wales' 22 local authorities responded to the Welsh Government's white paper on local government reform. Over 170 responses were received in total. On December 9^th, 10 local authorities announced they would create a strategic body for south east Wales, but said this wouldn't conflict with council mergers.
• Plaid Cymru announced proposals to change the business rate relief system which would take 70,000 businesses out of rates altogether at a cost of £25million. They also (re)announced a target for up to 75% of public procurement contracts to go to Welsh companies, which they estimate would create up to 50,000 jobs.
• The Welsh budget for 2015-16 was passed by 26 votes to 22 with 4 abstentions on December 9^th following an agreement between Labour and the Welsh Liberal Democrats worth a reported £223million.
• The National Assembly approved the Animal Welfare (Breeding of Dogs) Regulations 2014, which will introduce new standards for dog breeding, including a minimum ratio of staff to dogs. The Welsh Lib Dems said the new regulations were “inadequate”, while Deputy Minister for Farming and Food, Rebecca Evans (Lab, Mid & West Wales), said they would, “help stamp out irresponsible breeding practices”.
• The latest gross value added (GVA) figures for Wales in 2013 showed that Wales remained the poorest performing nation or region at £16,893 per head (~72% of the UK average), with total GVA at just over £52billion. Wales did, however, see the joint fastest rise in GVA of the UK's nations and regions at 3.4%.
• The National Assembly rejected a cross-party motion supporting the principles of the Assisted Dying Bill – proposed in the UK House of Lords - on December 10^th by 12 votes to 21 with 20 abstentions. Simon Thomas AM (Plaid, Mid & West Wales) – who supports the Bill – said, “it was vital that our own parliament has an opportunity to form a view”.
• The Welsh Government opened a new thirty-year National Transport Plan for consultation, which includes improvements to the A55 and A40, previously-announced bypasses of Newtown, Llandeilo and Caernarfon, projects to improve rail capacity and a youth concessionary scheme for buses.
• Farmers' group Fairness for the Uplands won a legal challenge against the Welsh Government over EU subsidies, which were awarded on the basis of being worth ten times less for land above 400 metres. Deputy Minister Rebecca Evans said she was “disappointed” by the ruling, but will consult on revised payment arrangements.
• The new chief executive of NHS Wales, Dr Andrew Goodall, warned that non-urgent operations could be cancelled over winter “as a last resort” due to demand. It comes as non-urgent operations were cancelled in the Abertawe Bro Morgannwg local health board until after Christmas.
• Multiple AMs representing Bridgend and Neath Port Talbot called on Celtic Energy to restore two opencast mines after a fraud case involving the ownership of the sites was dismissed. It's understood the offshore company which now owns the sites – Oak Regeneration – will be unable to meet the costs of restoration unless mining is allowed to continue.
• Unemployment rose sharply by 8,000 in the three months to October 2014 to stand at 7.1% - the sharpest rise of the UK's nations and regions. Across the UK, unemployment fell by 63,000.
• The latest figures from the Research Excellence Framework showed more than a third of university projects in Wales were categorised as “world class”, with Wales outperforming the UK in the highest 4* and 3* categories. Cardiff University is now said to rank in the top 5 research institutions in the UK with 87% of projects ranked 4* or 3*.
• The National Assembly Health & Social Services Committee inquiry into medical technologies recommended a national approach to prevent excessive regional variations in availability. Committee Chair, David Rees AM (Lab, Aberavon), said, “The role new technology has to play in improving the delivery of health and social services is long recognised."
• The National Assembly's Environment & Sustainability Committee inquiry into recycling recommended that, despite impressive recycling rates, the Welsh Government should prove kerbside recycling is the best option, and research whether weight-based recycling targets are working at the expense of overall waste reduction.
• The Welsh Government launched a consultation on changes to teacher assessment of pupils work, which will be compared on a regional basis to ensure consistency. The proposals were welcomed by teachers' unions who say in-class assessments can be as robust as external exams.
• Plaid Cymru accused the Welsh Government of exacerbating a doctor recruitment crisis after freedom of information requests showed just over £1,000 was spent on medical recruitment in 2013-14 compared to more than £45,000 a year earlier. Plaid's health spokesperson, Elin Jones AM (Plaid, Ceredigion), said the government was, “sitting on its hands and refusing to take workforce planning seriously”.

Projects announced in December include : A £150million investment in flood defences from 2018; a 7,000-home “garden city” to the west of Cardiff; a new five-year suicide prevention plan, a £35million innovation centre at Aberystwyth University; a “Pupil Offer” scheme to encourage low-income pupils to pursue interests out of school; an extra £2.2million towards a Citizens Advice Bureau benefits assistance scheme and a £31.7million round of Communities First funding.

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