The War on Terror's forgotten front

The terror attacks on Nairobi's Westgate Shopping Centre are a reminder
that the War on Terror is as much an African war as an Asian-focused one.
(Pic : The Telegraph)

If you asked most people to name a front line in "The War on Terror", I'm willing to bet most would say Afghanistan or northern Pakistan. In terms of intensity that may well be true, but like all global wars, there are other front lines which might not be getting the attention they deserve, but where US and allied troops are involved.

As demonstrated by the terror attacks and siege in Nairobi over the last week, one of those forgotten fronts is the Horn of Africa, in particular Somalia.

To date, multilateral efforts in this region of Africa to undermine Islamist terrorism have been relatively successful, carefully targeted with seemingly minimal casualties – estimates put the total number of deaths in the area directly attributable to The War on Terror (Operation Enduring Freedom - Horn of Africa) at around 200.

The United States has led those efforts, possessing a large military presence in Djibouti, with between 3,000-4,000 troops stationed at the Camp Lemonnier, which is also a base for the US military's Africa Command (AFRICOM).

Despite this American involvement, the African Union has put substantial resources into fighting anti-government forces in Somalia's long-running civil war. They've achieved many key objectives, with the legitimate Somali government re-taking control of Mogadishu in 2011 from al-Qaeda linked groups like al-Shabaab.

The most heavily-involved nations as part of the African Union's operations in Somalia are Uganda, Burundi and bordering Kenya. All have between 4,000-5,000 troops involved at any one time.

The latest attack is a worrying sign that Somalia's conflict could be spilling over into the wider region, and it has precedence.

Nairobi was where Al-Qaeda and Osama bin Laden made their "debuts", becoming a recognised international threat following the 1998 US embassy bombings in Kenya and Tanzania which killed more than 200 people and injured more than 4,000. In 2002, there was an attack against a hotel popular with Israeli tourists in Mombasa, killing 13 people, and a failed attempt to bring down an Israeli passenger plane.Kenya is one of the more developed nations in east Africa, and wealth is heavily concentrated in Nairobi, and that's probably why a major shopping centre – popular with ex-pats and wealthy locals alike – was chosen as a target.

There are massive income disparities between wealthy urbanites & ex-pats and those who live in slums and rural areas. Kenya is also ethnically and religiously diverse. Although the majority of people are Christians, around 11% of the population are Muslim (compared to 4.5% in the UK, or 1.5% in Wales) and there are concerns they are increasingly being radicalised.

There have been times these inter-ethnic differences have descended into widespread violence, as it did in 2007-08. Luckily, it appears Kenya has recovered well from that. Violence was widely expected during and following the general election in March, but it never materialised to any great extent.

If militant Islamists like al-Shabaab can gain a foothold in Kenya, in reaction to Kenyan involvement in Somalia, it spells danger for the whole of east Africa, especially those with large Muslim populations like Tanzania (35%).

It could not only undermine the relative stability nations like Rwanda, Uganda, Tanzania and Ethiopia have managed to foster over the last decade, but it could feed off tensions within these countries, and provide another avenue for training Islamist terrorists to carry out attacks closer to home.

The latest attacks in Nairobi could also be interpreted as be a sign that al-Shabaab are weakening, and were carried out as an act of desperation, perhaps hoping to turn public opinion against Kenyan involvement in the Somali Civil War, which could ease some of the setbacks that Islamists have endured there. That's signified by the "threat" issued by al-Shabaab a few days ago.

The more worrying thing here though is possible foreign involvement, with suggestions there could well have been American and British people involved in the execution of the attacks.

Apart from Yemen, and long-standing problems in Pakistan, it'll probably be east and Sub-Saharan Africa which will become the new spring board for Islamist-inspired terrorism. European governments should perhaps take a keener interest in the area that extends beyond combating piracy.