This post was
originally going to be on problem gambling, but I've decided to
postpone that to the weekend due to this afternoon's "dramatic" developments in Cardiff. Tomorrow could also prove to be another "dramatic" day for unrelated reasons, but more from me on
that when appropriate.
I said back in December that I expected a Welsh cabinet reshuffle "early in 2013" and without sounding too smug, I was right.
Actually, there's no reason to get smug at all as there've been rumours that the First Minister was going to reshuffle for some time – since at least last October. The only surprise is that it's happened in the penultimate week before the Assembly goes into Easter recess, rather than during the recess itself.
Health Minister
In : Mark Drakeford (Lab, Cardiff West)
Out : Lesley Griffiths (Lab, Wrexham)
I hate to say this, but it was inevitable. Lesley Griffiths gave it a good go, but it hasn't worked out. There's no shame in failures here due to the immensity of the task, and I think Jane Hutt's experiences have proven that sometimes it takes two or three cabinet roles until you find your niche. This just wasn't Lesley's niche.
It's unusual for someone with "little" Assembly experience to rise to cabinet so quickly, but as I've pointed out before, Mark Drakeford has been one of the more prominent Labour backbenchers. He has a breadth of academic experience behind him in areas like social care – including being a proponent for co-operative models of delivering care – and has proven to be a capable chair of the Health & Social Services Committee.
This should be, on paper, a match made in heaven. But all the academic and committee experience in the world means diddly squat if he can't grasp Welsh politics' poisoned chalice with both hands and not have his face melt.
My question would be whether it's wise to reshuffle while the controversial – you could say bungled – NHS reconfigurations are still ongoing.
Local Government Minister
In : Lesley Griffiths (Lab, Wrexham)
Out (sort of) : Carl Sargeant (Lab, Alyn & Deeside)
As one door closes....
Like I said above, it sometimes takes two or three roles until you find your niche. With her background as an administrator, this might be more suited to her. But this could well be a case of "out of the frying pan...."
Taking the helm of the two biggest vested interest groups in Wales – the NHS (and not doing a particularly good job of it) and now local government. Is she 100% sure Carwyn likes her?
Thumping onto her desk will be issues surrounding shrinking local government budgets, the possibility of some sort of significant local government reorganisation being required (much more on that from me over the next fortnight) and issues surrounding the delivery of some local government services – in particular education services (though that's more Leighton Andrews' domain – who remains Education Minister).
I'm not surprised Lesley's retained a cabinet position, but you've got to question the strength and depth of Labour's ministerial gene pool.
The transport aspect of the portfolio has been (rightly) transferred to Edwina Hart (Lab, Gower), who remains Business & Economy Minister.
Communities & Tackling Poverty Minister
New Role : Huw Lewis (Lab, Merthyr Tydfil & Rhymney)
I'm not sure if this counts as a demotion or not. He was a deputy minister but has, seemingly, been promoted to a full ministerial role, which I presume will be predominantly to do with "social justice" and community safety. I doubt Huw has ever been that committed to the culture and heritage side of his old brief, and clumping all those competing roles together in 2011 seemed odd.
"Tackling Poverty Minister" is a very grand-sounding title – the sort of thing you'll find pilloried for appearing in Guardian public sector job adverts - but it's unclear if there'll be anything concrete to back that up.
Housing & Regeneration Minister
New Role : Carl Sargeant (Lab, Alyn & Deeside)
Again, you've got to say this is a demotion of sorts, or a logical break up of Huw Lewis' clunky old portfolio. It isn't a shock he's been moved, but I think it's right that there's a Housing Minister as a full cabinet role. Jocelyn Davies (Plaid, South Wales East) did a good job of it during the Third Assembly, so there's plenty for Carl to get stuck in to.
I've had Carl Sargeant down as one of the more proactive ministers during One Wales – especially when you consider how he waded into Anglesey. He just hasn't been there this term.
He's had to (inexplicably) balance things like transport and community safety with local government. He's also made big errors – notably the issues around council tax benefit regulations at the end of 2012. I have to note his reluctance to get involved in Carmarthenshire too.
In his new role, it'll be interesting to see how he'll handles the RIFW issue.
Minister for Culture and Sport
New Role : John Griffiths (Lab, Newport East)
A little baffling. Issues around his perceived "weakness" on the badger cull aside, I don't see what John has (or hasn't) done to be (effectively) demoted like this. Considering he's overseen the establishment of Natural Resources Wales – coming into being in a few weeks time - it would've been right for him to see that through.
So....who's gets the Environment portfolio?
Minister for Natural Resources & Food
New Role : Alun Davies (Lab, Blaenau Gwent)
I'll be honest. When I saw John Griffiths move, in the back of my mind – maybe wanting a bit of excitement and chaos - I expected to see "Dafydd Elis-Thomas is the new Environment Minister" appear on Twitter. Perhaps as a cross-bencher, or on the basis of some major deal between Labour and Plaid that would be announced tonight. It would've also explained the timing (Leanne Wood is on Question Time). Clearly though I was being far too Machiavellian in my thought processes there.
....and I'd forgotten about Alun.
He was, in my opinion, doing a decent job as Dep. Min. For Rural Affairs. Environment and Rural Affairs are natural bedfellows, so there's no real shock that Alun's duties have been beefed up here (excuse the pun). A promotion of sorts, and a largely deserved one.
It's unclear what's happened to European Programmes though, unless they've passed to Jane Jutt (Lab, Vale of Glamorgan) who remains Finance Minister. Carwyn did say he wanted more personal oversight of energy back in 2011, so presumably he'll be overseeing that jointly with Alun.
Overall impressions
Aside from Mark Drakeford making it into the cabinet (widely expected), there's not much to note really, is there?
You don't necessarily have to bring in new faces for a cabinet reshuffle to be legitimate, but this just comes across as a differently-stacked deck. As Vaughan Roderick has pointed out, the fact the number of cabinet posts has been increased suggests that Labour are going to see out the term without seeking any coalition agreement.
There are a few backbench Labour AMs who are potential (I stress potential) cabinet material – namely Ken Skates (Lab, Clwyd South), Vaughan Gething (Lab, Cardiff South & Penarth) and perhaps Mick Antoniw (Lab, Pontypridd) and Julie Morgan (Lab, Cardiff North) too. You have to wonder why any of those four didn't make the step up this time round, even to a deputy role.
Maybe a fresh perspective within some departments will work out, but I don't think we should get our hopes up somehow. I suppose it gave us political anoraks something to chew over for an hour or two.
I think I should've just stuck with the gambling post....
I said back in December that I expected a Welsh cabinet reshuffle "early in 2013" and without sounding too smug, I was right.
Actually, there's no reason to get smug at all as there've been rumours that the First Minister was going to reshuffle for some time – since at least last October. The only surprise is that it's happened in the penultimate week before the Assembly goes into Easter recess, rather than during the recess itself.
Health Minister
In : Mark Drakeford (Lab, Cardiff West)
Out : Lesley Griffiths (Lab, Wrexham)
I hate to say this, but it was inevitable. Lesley Griffiths gave it a good go, but it hasn't worked out. There's no shame in failures here due to the immensity of the task, and I think Jane Hutt's experiences have proven that sometimes it takes two or three cabinet roles until you find your niche. This just wasn't Lesley's niche.
It's unusual for someone with "little" Assembly experience to rise to cabinet so quickly, but as I've pointed out before, Mark Drakeford has been one of the more prominent Labour backbenchers. He has a breadth of academic experience behind him in areas like social care – including being a proponent for co-operative models of delivering care – and has proven to be a capable chair of the Health & Social Services Committee.
This should be, on paper, a match made in heaven. But all the academic and committee experience in the world means diddly squat if he can't grasp Welsh politics' poisoned chalice with both hands and not have his face melt.
My question would be whether it's wise to reshuffle while the controversial – you could say bungled – NHS reconfigurations are still ongoing.
Local Government Minister
In : Lesley Griffiths (Lab, Wrexham)
Out (sort of) : Carl Sargeant (Lab, Alyn & Deeside)
As one door closes....
Like I said above, it sometimes takes two or three roles until you find your niche. With her background as an administrator, this might be more suited to her. But this could well be a case of "out of the frying pan...."
Taking the helm of the two biggest vested interest groups in Wales – the NHS (and not doing a particularly good job of it) and now local government. Is she 100% sure Carwyn likes her?
Thumping onto her desk will be issues surrounding shrinking local government budgets, the possibility of some sort of significant local government reorganisation being required (much more on that from me over the next fortnight) and issues surrounding the delivery of some local government services – in particular education services (though that's more Leighton Andrews' domain – who remains Education Minister).
I'm not surprised Lesley's retained a cabinet position, but you've got to question the strength and depth of Labour's ministerial gene pool.
The transport aspect of the portfolio has been (rightly) transferred to Edwina Hart (Lab, Gower), who remains Business & Economy Minister.
Communities & Tackling Poverty Minister
New Role : Huw Lewis (Lab, Merthyr Tydfil & Rhymney)
I'm not sure if this counts as a demotion or not. He was a deputy minister but has, seemingly, been promoted to a full ministerial role, which I presume will be predominantly to do with "social justice" and community safety. I doubt Huw has ever been that committed to the culture and heritage side of his old brief, and clumping all those competing roles together in 2011 seemed odd.
"Tackling Poverty Minister" is a very grand-sounding title – the sort of thing you'll find pilloried for appearing in Guardian public sector job adverts - but it's unclear if there'll be anything concrete to back that up.
Housing & Regeneration Minister
New Role : Carl Sargeant (Lab, Alyn & Deeside)
Again, you've got to say this is a demotion of sorts, or a logical break up of Huw Lewis' clunky old portfolio. It isn't a shock he's been moved, but I think it's right that there's a Housing Minister as a full cabinet role. Jocelyn Davies (Plaid, South Wales East) did a good job of it during the Third Assembly, so there's plenty for Carl to get stuck in to.
I've had Carl Sargeant down as one of the more proactive ministers during One Wales – especially when you consider how he waded into Anglesey. He just hasn't been there this term.
He's had to (inexplicably) balance things like transport and community safety with local government. He's also made big errors – notably the issues around council tax benefit regulations at the end of 2012. I have to note his reluctance to get involved in Carmarthenshire too.
In his new role, it'll be interesting to see how he'll handles the RIFW issue.
Minister for Culture and Sport
New Role : John Griffiths (Lab, Newport East)
A little baffling. Issues around his perceived "weakness" on the badger cull aside, I don't see what John has (or hasn't) done to be (effectively) demoted like this. Considering he's overseen the establishment of Natural Resources Wales – coming into being in a few weeks time - it would've been right for him to see that through.
So....who's gets the Environment portfolio?
Minister for Natural Resources & Food
New Role : Alun Davies (Lab, Blaenau Gwent)
I'll be honest. When I saw John Griffiths move, in the back of my mind – maybe wanting a bit of excitement and chaos - I expected to see "Dafydd Elis-Thomas is the new Environment Minister" appear on Twitter. Perhaps as a cross-bencher, or on the basis of some major deal between Labour and Plaid that would be announced tonight. It would've also explained the timing (Leanne Wood is on Question Time). Clearly though I was being far too Machiavellian in my thought processes there.
....and I'd forgotten about Alun.
He was, in my opinion, doing a decent job as Dep. Min. For Rural Affairs. Environment and Rural Affairs are natural bedfellows, so there's no real shock that Alun's duties have been beefed up here (excuse the pun). A promotion of sorts, and a largely deserved one.
It's unclear what's happened to European Programmes though, unless they've passed to Jane Jutt (Lab, Vale of Glamorgan) who remains Finance Minister. Carwyn did say he wanted more personal oversight of energy back in 2011, so presumably he'll be overseeing that jointly with Alun.
Overall impressions
Aside from Mark Drakeford making it into the cabinet (widely expected), there's not much to note really, is there?
You don't necessarily have to bring in new faces for a cabinet reshuffle to be legitimate, but this just comes across as a differently-stacked deck. As Vaughan Roderick has pointed out, the fact the number of cabinet posts has been increased suggests that Labour are going to see out the term without seeking any coalition agreement.
There are a few backbench Labour AMs who are potential (I stress potential) cabinet material – namely Ken Skates (Lab, Clwyd South), Vaughan Gething (Lab, Cardiff South & Penarth) and perhaps Mick Antoniw (Lab, Pontypridd) and Julie Morgan (Lab, Cardiff North) too. You have to wonder why any of those four didn't make the step up this time round, even to a deputy role.
Maybe a fresh perspective within some departments will work out, but I don't think we should get our hopes up somehow. I suppose it gave us political anoraks something to chew over for an hour or two.
I think I should've just stuck with the gambling post....
Do you agree that there should be more assembly members? Aren't a quarter of AM's in the cabinet? Edwina Hart has been a minister since 1999....
ReplyDelete^ More AMs and less MPs, let's say zero MPs.
ReplyDeleteAs for Drakford, this is the man who called Plaid poujadist, basically comparing them to Nazis and far right parties in France.
He's also anti-Welsh language and one of his employees is a Labour councillor that called Welsh medium education "ethnic cleansing".
No wonder he's going places.
The argument for more AMs is sound, it's just we have an odd attitude towards politicians in general, so any move to create "more of them" is going to be a hard sell to the public even if we need them.
ReplyDeleteThe most worrying thing is that there's clearly an elite "leadership clique" at the top of Welsh Labour who are becoming increasingly separated from the backbenchers. I couldn't imagine the likes of Edwina Hart being outside the cabinet now - and that's not healthy for any democracy.
Welsh Labour has many arseholes what a suprise.
ReplyDelete