Westminster 2015 : The Manifestos Part I

The following two posts are the most important of the lot this election campaign : What are we voting for in May? Or, more accurately, what might be on the table during negotiations in the event of a hung parliament?

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Westminster 2015 : The BBC Challengers Debate

(Pic : The Mirror)

The second of the main TV debates of Election 2015 was held last night, this time consisting of the opposition party leaders – so no David Cameron bwark-bwark-bwark-bwaaaark or Nick Clegg, which damaged the legitimacy a little bit.

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Westminster 2015 : The Key Issues in Wales

What are likely to be the main issues for Welsh voters?
(Pic : Click on Wales)

The first debate's out of the way, I've given my verdict on the Coalition and the manifestos are going to be released over the next few weeks (I'll look at them in more detail once their all out, though UKIP are dragging their heels by the looks of it) - which means it's time to focus on some of the issues that might be fought over in Wales.

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Westminster 2015 : The ITV Leaders Debate

The big debate has been held, and here's a run down of how the leaders did.
(Pic : ITV)

I'll only count this and the BBC opposition debate on on 16^th April as "debates" because they're....actual debates. I'm not going to count the Question Time and Daily Politics specials or the interviews. I don't know if there are Wales-only debates planned over the next few weeks (as 2010), but if there are I'll cover them too.

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Senedd/Election Watch - March 2015

• Welsh Secretary, Stephen Crabb, described the Welsh Government's rejection of a referendum on income tax powers as “bizarre”, saying he “moved mountains” to secure the St David's Day agreement on extra powers for Wales.
• The First Minister told the National Assembly the deal was “rushed, incoherent and unsatisfactory” and was “no more than a staging post” to a better devolution settlement. Labour also denied that Shadow Welsh Secretary, Owen Smith, was blocking further devolution.
• A new GP contract was agreed between the Welsh Government and General Medical Council, meaning more repeat prescriptions and appointments could be offered online, while GPs will be given more treatment time with vulnerable patients. Health Minister, Mark Drakeford (Lab, Cardiff West), said the new contract, “places more trust and reliance on the professionalism of GPs”.

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Westminster 2015 : How have the Coalition performed?

As of Monday, every MP will be unemployed and scrounging for votes. So it's fitting
to kick them when they're down, as the Cameron administration know all about that.
(Pic : millenniumhotels.co.uk)

With the formal dissolution of the UK parliament coming on Monday, the time's come to kick-start my coverage of the 2015 House of Commons election.

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Assembly takes a ride on Heavy Metal

Heavy metal? Or no metal at all?
(Pic : Paul Webb via pickledimages.co.uk)

The last plenary session before Easter recess was held yesterday, and I've picked out two debates to cover. Today, I'll look at a members debate on the steel industry, while the Assembly also went south of heaven - I'll (hopefully) return to that tomorrow.

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Gissa Job : Assisting Young People Into Work

An Assembly committee has investigated the barriers facing young people as they enter the
world of work, as well as assessing Welsh Government actions to reduce youth unemployment.
(Pic : The Guardian)

Another tome, I'm afraid. All part of the service.

Last week, the Enterprise & Business Committee published their report into how young people find  work (pdf). This is particularly important as quoted statistics underline how hard young people have been hit by the recession - up to 18% of 18-24 year olds were unemployed in 2014 compared to just 4.4% of 35-49 year olds.

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Legally High

Earlier this week, the National Assembly's Health & Social Care Committee published their inquiry report (pdf) into new psychoactive substances (aka. NPS, "legal highs"). It was an extensive and wide-ranging inquiry which took evidence from a huge list of witnesses and focus groups around Wales.

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The Green, Green Glas of Home

The National Assembly's Public Accounts Committee have said that while the Glastir
scheme is well-intentioned, there are problems with how it's been managed.
(Pic : Nanhoron Estate)

I don't normally cover farming issues, mainly because such posts often go unread and I don't know anything about farming in the first place.

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Third Sector "bullying" criticised by AMs

Third Sector lobbying at the National Assembly is nothing new and has become a key
part of Welsh civic life. However, over the past week things took an unpalatable turn.
(Pic : The Women's Institute)

Following last week's Stage 3 debate on the Violence Against Women, Domestic Violence & Sexual Violence Bill, the National Assembly held the final Stage 4 debate yesterday. The Bill was passed unanimously and awaits Royal Assent.

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Mo' money, mo' problems

They asked the audience....then completely ignored them.

Last year, the Independent Remuneration Panel for the National Assembly proposed a change in AMs' and ministers' pay (The £64,000 Question).

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A St David's Day Deposit

Legend says the ground beneath St David rose so all of his audience could see and hear him.
Like his namesake, the ground beneath David Cameron rose too, but it was a steaming mound of dung.

Most people don't care about the constitution, what powers the Assembly has or the intricacies of how devolution works. They're more concerned about public services, and what the decisions made by politicians mean for themselves and their families.

Some of us realise the constitution determines what decisions politicians are able to make in the first place – all of which has a direct impact on the public.

As you probably all know, the Silk Commission published two reports between 2012-2014 as part of "the next step in Wales' devolution journey" etc.

The first report (Silk I) covered taxation powers for the National Assembly. Those powers are now on the statute book in the Wales Act 2014, meaning from 2018 the Assembly will have the power to set landfill tax, stamp duty and the aggregates levy. It also means the Assembly can call a referendum on whether they should have the power to vary income tax - which the First Minister is already attempting to scotch. This is despite the inclusion of a new funding review, which Carwyn Jones said would be required for his government to back a referendum.

Holding a referendum on such a technical subject is, as Borthlas said today, "one of the silliest ideas ever to be proposed by a government" and very easy to lose.

As I've said before (Marching out of lockstep) a referendum on a general principle of fiscal powers - i.e. "Should the National Assembly have the power to fund devolved services by borrowing money and collecting taxes devolved to Wales?" - would be a juicer topic for the public to have a debate on and would definitely necessitate going to the polls to get a mandate from the electorate.

The second report (Silk II) covered extra powers, which was taken forward by the Welsh Secretary, Stephen Crabb MP (Con, Preseli Pembs.), who set a deadline of 1^st March – St David's Day – for a cross-party, cross-government consensus on Silk II's recommendations. You can read the full report, which was published last Friday to great fanfare, here (pdf).

Whisper it quietly, but I've been impressed with how Stephen Crabb has gone about his job. He's done more for Wales in 8/9 months than his predecessors have in the best part of a decade. I don't blame him personally for this brown whale, rising from the depths of the bowl to mock Ahab.

This may well be another "step forward on Wales' devolution journey", but it's also one last blast of Westminster's brand of constitutional Poodigree Chum out of the tradesman's entrance before the election.

What's been agreed?

• A reserved powers model, which should clear up what the Assembly's powers are by listing what the Assembly can't do. Except it won't clear anything up because of the piecemeal nature of Welsh devolution. Reserved powers would be like putting the current Schedule 7 in a mirror (if you see what I mean).
• Inter-governmental relations – Puts relations between the two governments on a more equal footing, with better co-ordination of policies in areas like training, economic development, cross-border rail routes and franchises as well as cross-border health services.
• Ports policy and development.
• Speed limits.
• Bus and taxi regulation, along with Traffic Commissioner functions.
• Places a duty on the UK Government to consult with the Welsh Government, and take into account Welsh energy policy, when approving energy projects of up to 350MW. This effectively means the Welsh Government will have a veto on "fracking".
• Sewerage and some aspects of water (with further negotiation).
• Marine licensing.
• At least one appointee to the Supreme Court should have an understanding of Wales.
• Local government elections.
• The Assembly itself – The Welsh Secretary will no longer have to appear before the Assembly, or have a right to participate in Assembly proceedings. The Assembly will also gain control over the age to vote in Assembly elections, the size of the Assembly and its name/branding. The National Assembly will also be recognised as "permanent".
• The First Minister should have the power to recommend appointments to Lord Lieutenancies (more on this from me later this month).

What's been taken off the table?

Some significant stuff – arguably the only significant powers outlined in Silk II.

• Youth justice and probation services.
• Policing (all aspects).
• There'll no longer be a review of devolution of the criminal justice system (courts, prisons, criminal law) in the 2020s.
• Drink-driving limits – this has already been devolved to Scotland.
• Network Rail funding – Scotland currently receives a population-based proportion of Network Rail's UK-wide funding (around 9%). In 2013, just 1% of Network Rail's budget was spent in Wales compared to a population share of ~5%. This means Wales will continue to, in nominal terms, "subsidise" English rail projects, resulting in significantly less than our "fair share" to invest here.
• The Crown Estate – It currently generates a £9.4million surplus in Wales, and is devolved to Scotland and Northern Ireland.
• State funding for S4C and appointment of S4C board members.
• Any and all aspects of social security - aspects of which will be devolved to Scotland.
• Responsibilities in relation to the Equalities and Human Rights Commission.
• Teachers' pay and conditions.
• The civil service.

What does this mean?

Thanks to the efforts of Nick Clegg and the "true party of Wales", the
National Assembly is set to have power over shit. Literally.

Not only are the UK Government hamstringing devolution, but there are people in and around the Assembly doing so as well.

The reason criminal justice powers have been taken off the table – the devolution of which would've finally put Wales on a near equal footing with Scotland – is because the Welsh Conservatives oppose it and must've vetoed it.

Welsh Labour probably did too, but they support devolution of policing at least (What's all this then?) – though Ed Miliband doesn't even want to go that far, promising some bizarre role in report-writing. It doesn't help that Owen Smith is arguably the most devo-sceptic Welsh Secretary-elect since 1999. He has to justify his position somehow.

The UK Government have also, quite literally, devolved shit to Wales. So we need to be grateful for the existence of Nick Clegg. Without Nick, Wales wouldn't have powers over faecal poltergeists and used tampons – but, at the same time, we're not good enough to run policing. Lib Dems should put that on their election leaflets.

I'm sure quite a few AMs from all parties will be underwhelmed by the St David's Day agreement, but this is a mess partly of their own making, as they put far too much faith in the "proper process" to the point of being gullible. In short, the UK never has been, and never will be, a union of equals; while constitutional reforms are pushed through in reaction to immediate threats to the status quo, not political consensus and grand commissions.

The UK is a very dysfunctional "family" indeed.The Scots have proven that if you want something you need to rattle your sabres. In political terms that means electing nationalists but, unfortunately, even then Wales would have very few sabres to rattle.

I'm not going to use the same old tired clichés about Wales "being slapped in the face" or "insulted" or "offered third-rate devolution" because this is exactly the outcome I was expecting :

The question there is if Scotland votes no in September, and as a result acquires further devolved powers or devo-max, Wales will be left behind yet again when - based on this report - Wales is tantalisingly close to achieving parity with Scotland (if criminal justice powers were devolved in future).
- See more at: http://www.oggybloggyogwr.com/2014/03/silk-ii-wrath-of-paul.html#sthash.TZafNehB.dpuf

The question there is if Scotland votes no in September, and as a result acquires further devolved powers or devo-max, Wales will be left behind yet again when - based on this report - Wales is tantalisingly close to achieving parity with Scotland (if criminal justice powers were devolved in future).
- See more at: http://www.oggybloggyogwr.com/2014/03/silk-ii-wrath-of-paul.html#sthash.TZafNehB.dpuf

The question there is if Scotland votes no in September, and as a result acquires further devolved powers or devo-max, Wales will be left behind yet again when - based on this report - Wales is tantalisingly close to achieving parity with Scotland (if criminal justice powers were devolved in future).
- See more at: http://www.oggybloggyogwr.com/2014/03/silk-ii-wrath-of-paul.html#sthash.TZafNehB.dpuf

04/03/2014 : "....if Scotland votes no in September, and as a result acquires further devolved powers or devo-max, Wales will be left behind yet again when - based on this report - Wales is tantalisingly close to achieving parity with Scotland (if criminal justice powers were devolved in future)."

The question there is if Scotland votes no in September, and as a result acquires further devolved powers or devo-max, Wales will be left behind yet again when - based on this report - Wales is tantalisingly close to achieving parity with Scotland (if criminal justice powers were devolved in future).
- See more at: http://www.oggybloggyogwr.com/2014/03/silk-ii-wrath-of-paul.html#sthash.TZafNehB.dpuf

he question there is if Scotland votes no in September, and as a result acquires further devolved powers or devo-max, Wales will be left behind yet again when - based on this report - Wales is tantalisingly close to achieving parity with Scotland (if criminal justice powers were devolved in future).
- See more at: http://www.oggybloggyogwr.com/2014/03/silk-ii-wrath-of-paul.html#sthash.TZafNehB.dpuf

There have been several opportunities down the years to put the devolved powers issue to bed once and for all and ensure Wales has a settlement that would last more than a decade. People like me can then shut up about independence and further powers, and AMs can concentrate on running the country, safe in the knowledge that they would be on a clearer footing within the UK's constitution.

Nope, not going to happen. Again.

A cross-party commission's reasonable and proportionate recommendations have been watered down. Again.

Scotland is moving leaps and bounds ahead of Wales. Again.

Powers which, by rights, should be devolved (like abortion limits, medicine licensing, drink-drive limits, and Network Rail funding....because subjects like health and transport are devolved) have been taken off the table. Again.

The only person who has a right to be chuffed with this is the Llywydd, Rosemary Butler (Lab, Newport West). Her recommendations (Assembly Commission steps up to the oche) are included almost word for word.

So don't worry. The National Assembly might, in future be called Welsh Parliament because "National Assembly" isn't a good enough name for Wales....but it is for France, Greece, South Korea, Hungary, Pakistan and South Africa.

Oh, and all those 16 year olds chomping at the bit to vote may be able to (The X-Factor). Great stuff. Meanwhile, the "Assemblement" will be able to block "fracking" but won't be able to control any energy project that produces more power than a BMX dynamo. The UK Government will retain ultimate control.

I look forward to the recommendations of the Baroness Kirsty Williams Commission on Devolution for Wales in 2024, which will outline a lasting settlement and put the issue of constitutional reform to bed for....

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Senedd/Election Watch - February 2015

• Figures revealed to BBC Wales showed the Control of Horses Act 2014 – passed by the National Assembly as emergency legislation – has only been used by 11 of Wales' 22 local authorities to deal with stray horses. Angela Burns AM (Con, Carms. W & S. Pembs.) said the law needed proper funding and should be enforced by councils as a statutory responsibility.
• The Conservative MP for Shrewsbury and Atcham, Daniel Kawczynzki, called for an investigation into the impact of ambulance service delays on cross-border care, after patients were waiting for several hours outside Wrexham Maelor Hospital, which serves northern Shropshire.
• The National Assembly's Environment Committee said the Planning Bill needed to be “more democratic” in their Stage 1 report, after concerns were raised by legal experts that some of the Bill's clauses will reduce the ability of local communities to argue against developments that could impact their lives.

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New Law to Reform Social Care

In the wake of several scandals relating to treatment of people in care, the Regulation
and Inspection of Social Care Bill aims to tighten up professional regulation.
(Pic : nursingcarehomesincornwall.co.uk)

Yesterday, Health Minister, Mark Drakeford (Lab, Cardiff West), introduced the second major piece of legislation reforming social services this Assembly term.

The Regulation and Inspection of Social Care Bill (Bill [pdf], explanatory memorandum [pdf]) outlines a number of reforms to how social care services are regulated and inspected....funnily enough. More info from the National Assembly's In Brief blog.

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Supreme Court overrules Welsh law

The UK Supreme Court has struck down a backbench Welsh law,
ruling that it fell outside the powers of the National Assembly.
(Pic : The Guardian)

I'm afraid this one's for the anoraks (also touched on by National Left).

In 2012, Mick Antoniw AM (Lab, Pontypridd) introduced a Member's Bill called the Recovery of Medical Costs of Asbestos Diseases Bill (aka. Asbestos Disease Bill - more here). Its key proposal was for insurers, on behalf of employers, to reimburse the Welsh NHS (via the Welsh Government) the cost of treating work-related asbestos diseases. This is potentially worth between £1-3million.

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Senedd Watch - January 2015

• Fresh calls were made to scrap Severn Bridge tolls after fares rose in line with the Retail Price Index to become one of the world's most expensive road tolls. The bridges will return to public ownership in 2018, though Plaid Cymru warned that contract clauses could see the UK Government claw back maintenance costs until 2027.
• Plaid Cymru's education spokesperson, Simon Thomas AM (Plaid, Mid & West Wales), said schools needed extra support to use the “world class” online Hwb+ learning portal, after figures released to the party showed only a third of schools were regularly using the service.
• The Liberal Democrats accused Plaid Cymru of “astonishing hypocrisy” for campaigning in favour of a widespread introduction of a public sector £7.85 per hour “living wage”, whilst nearly 4,000 workers at three Plaid-controlled local authorities were paid below this.
• Rhodri Glyn Thomas AM and Jonathan Edwards MP (both Plaid, Carms. E & Dinefwr) called a proposed £446,000 severance agreement with chief executive of Carmarthenshire Council, Mark James, a “disgrace”. The local co-ruling Labour party said they would reject the proposal – one of a mooted ten options. It comes months after the acrimonious exit of disgraced former chief executive of Pembrokeshire, Bryn Parry-Jones.
• The Welsh Liberal Democrats said if they form a government after the 2016 Welsh Assembly election, they would introduce legislation putting a £95,000 cap on “golden goodbyes”, mirroring similar Westminster legislation.
• On January 28^th it was revealed by Pembrokeshire councillor, Jacob Williams, that the cost of Bryn Parry-Jones' exit amounted to over £150,000 in legal fees.
• A Wales Audit Office report revealed Wales was being hit harder by housing benefit reforms (aka. “Bedroom Tax”) than other parts of the UK, with rental debts rising by a quarter. The UK Department of Work & Pensions said they made up to £15million in discretionary payments available.
• A report from the Welsh Institute for Social and Economic Research, Data & Methods (WISERD) concluded that the flagship Foundation Phase is failing to meet its original aim of reducing education inequality between deprived and well-off pupils. However, other findings in the report suggest the scheme has been welcomed by teachers, staff and parents and is having a “positive impact” on some aspects of learning.
• Politicians, journalists and members of the public attended an evening vigil outside the Senedd on January 11^th to mark the deaths of 17 people in an Islamist terror attack in Paris targeted at satirical magazine Charlie Hebdo and the Jewish community. Dr Saleem Kidwai, chair of the Muslim Council of Wales, condemned the attacks without reservation saying, “truth wins over falsehood and light over darkness”.
• Both Welsh and UK governments were criticised for lowering flags to mark the death of King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia on 23^rd January, due to the country's appalling record on human rights and political repression. Simon Thomas AM described the act as “sickening” and a “gutless disgrace”. The First Minister said he “in no way condones” human rights abuses, and the Welsh Government would review their flag policy.
• Estyn reported that progress in improving literacy and numeracy standards under the Literacy & Numeracy Framework, introduced in 2013, was “modest”. They said this was due to insufficient guidance and resources from the Welsh Government.
• Finance Minister, Jane Hutt (Lab, Vale of Glamorgan), announced the spending outline for £123million allocated to Wales via the UK Government's Autumn Statement. Amongst the proposals, £70million will go towards health, while £35million will be used towards business rate relief.
• BBC Wales revealed £120million has been spent by the Welsh Government developing a property portfolio of industrial and commercial sites, including £52million on Cardiff Airport. Leader of the Opposition, Andrew Davies (Con, South Wales Central), said the Welsh Government, “should create planning permission and infrastructure improvements, but should not actually own and develop the land”.
• The latest figures on cancer survival showed a 25% drop in cancer deaths in under-75s and 20% increase in five-year survival rates despite an 18,000 increase in diagnoses. Deputy Health Minister, Vaughan Gething (Lab, Cardiff S. & Penarth), said the report “sets out the challenges” to improve the number of people treated within 62 days.
• The National Assembly approved a non-binding motion calling for the Welsh Government to no longer award procurement contracts or grants to companies with no women board members. Communities & Tackling Poverty Minister, Lesley Griffiths (Lab, Wrexham), said the government couldn't support the motion, as barring awards on these grounds would be illegal. However, the sentiment was supported.
• 19% of people waited longer than four hours at Welsh A&E departments in December 2014 (target 5%) - the worst treatment time in Wales since October 2009. The Welsh Government said A&Es had experienced their busiest December in five years, with an extra £40million allocated to alleviate winter pressures. The Welsh Conservatives said there was “nowhere for Labour to hide”, while RCN Wales director, Tina Donnelly, called for 1,000 extra acute care nurses.
• On January 28^th it was revealed ambulance response times for December 2014 were "the worst on record”, with only 42.6% of ambulances responding to life-threatening calls within 8 minutes, compared to a target of 65%. In some parts of Wales, like Rhondda Cynon Taf, it was below 35%.
• The Welsh Government released information on job creation at Welsh enterprise zones following an Information Commissioner ruling in December 2014. More than 2,000 jobs had been created and 3,000 safeguarded at a cost of £70million, but most were in Deeside, Cardiff and Anglesey. Only 94 jobs were created or protected at St Athan and just 8 in Snowdonia. Rhun ap Iorwerth AM (Plaid, Ynys Môn) said the cost-per-job - even in some of the better-performing zones - was up to four times higher than anticipated.
• A senior Welsh Government civil servant told the Public Accounts Committee that an extra Cardiff-Norwich leg could be provided, on a commercial basis, in the down-time between subsidised Cardiff-Anglesey flights. A new contract with LinksAir is set to run until 2018, but the service has been criticised for not providing value for money.
• Welsh unemployment fell to a rate of 7% in the three months to November 2014, with 103,000 people out of work. The Welsh Government said the raw unemployment and job-seekers allowance claimant counts were both lower than the same time the previous year.
• The National Assembly approved a cross-party motion by 29 votes to 21 calling for radical improvements to services for autistic children and adults, and for parties to commit to introducing an Autism Act in their 2016 manifestos. There was criticism of lengthy waits for diagnoses and a lack of ring-fencing of funds by local authorities.
• Welsh Labour said they will consider introducing legislation to end the “Right to Buy” for social housing tenants, if they form a government after the 2016 Welsh Assembly election, in order to protect dwindling social housing stocks. Shadow Housing Minister, Mark Isherwood (Con, North Wales), said Welsh Labour, “is returning to its outdated socialist dogma of the 1980s”.
• Plaid Cymru amendments to introduce a “smacking ban” to the Domestic Violence Bill were rejected by the Communities & Local Government Committee at Stage 2. Committee Chair – and supporter of the amendment – Christine Chapman AM (Lab, Cynon Valley) said she was “disappointed” but hoped an amendment would be proposed at Stage 3, calling on AMs to be given a free vote.
• In a response to calls for a cross-party agreement on the future of devolution, the Assembly Commission recommended, amongst other things, that the number of AMs increase from 60 to between 80-100, estimating the cost would range from between £9million and £17million. The Welsh Conservatives believed the overall number of politicians would need to decreased elsewhere before an Assembly expansion.
• Public Services Minister, Leighton Andrews (Lab, Rhondda), introduced the first of a proposed two Local Government Bills to the National Assembly on January 27^th. The Bill outlines the arrangements for local authorities to merge voluntarily by April 2018. At the same time, he rejected three mooted voluntary mergers, saying he wasn't persuaded by the vision.
• The National Assembly unanimously approved the Higher Education Bill on January 27^th. The Higher Education Act will provide a new regulatory framework for higher education in Wales and ensure “fair access” for Welsh learners.
• Cardiff University's Prof. Sally Holland was appointed the new Children's Commissioner for Wales, succeeding Keith Towler, who leaves the post after seven years. There had been criticism for the delay in appointing a new commissioner, but the Communities & Tackling Poverty Minister described Prof. Holland as a “strong ambassador” for children's rights.
• A survey on Welsh language use showed the percentage of fluent Welsh-speakers had fallen over the last ten years from 58% of all Welsh-speakers to 46%. However, use of Welsh socially and in work had risen slightly – though there remained a tendency for Welsh-speakers to use English online and when dealing with authorities.
• The Welsh Government launched the “traffic light ranking” replacement for school banding on January 29^th. 238 schools were ranked the highest grade of “green”, while 81 schools were ranked “red”. Education Minister, Huw Lewis (Lab, Merthyr Tydfil & Rhymney), said the new system meant, “there is no hiding place for schools that don't deliver for the most disadvantaged pupils”.

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Local Government Bill : Council mergers edge closer (sort of)

We still have no idea what form local government reorganisation will take. The latest law introduced
to the Assembly will, however, give councils the opportunity to take the initiative themselves
....unless they've already taken the initiative themselves, of course.
(Pic : Wales Online)

A little over a year to the day since the Williams Commission reported on local government and public service reforms, Public Services Minister, Leighton Andrews (Lab, Rhondda), introduced the Local Government Bill to the National Assembly on Tuesday (27^th January), with the aim of outlining the process for voluntary mergers between local authorities.

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