Oggy Bloggy Ogwr

Do shock tactics work anymore?

2012-02-25T11:01:00.000Z

Firstly a heads-up – some of the links could be considered distressing, offensive, cripplingly nostalgic or all three.

The Welsh Government's recent campaign against smoking
in cars is the latest attempt to shock people into lifestyle changes.
(Pic : Fresh Start Wales)

Now I'm not a fan of the "nanny state", however last year I expressed regret at the loss of the Central Office of Information, which will be wound up at the end of March. I consider myself something of an aficionado of public information films – you could call that "sad" but judging by most of the content on this blog that's par for the course.

"Whether it's taking extra care with chip pans, or making sure you don't accidentally on purpose get hit by a train. It was comforting to know that the state actually cared enough about you to warn you of these things, even if it came across as incessant nagging."

More often than not it was via public information films during school holidays, warning you to stay away from stagnant water, not to throw fireworks in other people's faces or get trapped inside an abandoned fridge.

In school, excitement would build as the portable television was wheeled to the front of the classroom, only for a British Transport Police officer to describe in some detail what it's like to scoop someone who had an unexpected encounter with the 7:30 from London Paddington into a bin bag. Or a SWALEC education liaison officer showing a teenager getting fried trying to retrieve a football. The one that sticks in the mind though was seeing a group of kids die in various horrible ways in farming accidents. I can honestly say I've never been near a slurry pit since and look both ways when crossing a railway line. Shock tactics certainly work on the young and impressionable.

Although it's before my time, the Saatchi & Saatchi AIDS awareness campaign – arguably the most successful public information campaign ever (Margaret Thatcher isn't everyone's cup of tea but I think you can list this as one of the "good things" she did) - was notable for it's apocalyptic and blunt style. The message and imagery was clear – "ignore this and you'll be carving your own tombstone".

The Welsh Government recently launched an equally candid campaign against smoking in cars with children, possible leading to legislation at some point in the future. The underlying message again is point blank - "you're poisoning your children".

In the last decade or so the public information campaign has evolved from being almost entirely about personal safety to encompass charities, social awareness and equalities issues. Anti-fur groups have long produced gory 18-rated horror campaigns for cinemas as have environmentalists. I think the turning point was back in 1999 when the NSPCC produced a TV spot on child abuse as part of their "Full Stop" campaign. It was so shocking that in the end it was only broadcast after the watershed. In terms of raising awareness and funds the campaign was a resounding success, however the BBC report that in the same year the NSPCC spent more on administration and campaigning (£38m) than it did on actual children's services (£28m).

Shock tactics are nothing new and that's the problem.

"Hard-hitting", "scare 'em straight", "dropped anvils" – there are many descriptions for this tactic. But 2012 is a different world. It's post 2 Girls 1 Cup, BME Pain Olympics and Blue Waffles. With absolutely anything you can possibly think of being a mouse click away it's an increasingly desensitised world too. Images that would've once been exclusive to medical textbooks are now on Wikipedia.

Animal rights group PETA sparked controversy this month by producing a darkly-humourous advert that shamelessly implies that violent sex is a side effect of veganism. It got people talking – not about PETA's causes – but about the misogyny (you can argue there's a bit of misandry in there too), prompting debate over whether charities should resort to shock tactics at all.

That sums it up – "resort to". It's almost becoming a rather lazy fall back position for advertisers that have run out of ideas. If shock tactics continue to be used so casually we could reach a point where absolutely nothing grabs the audiences attention.

Picture this. You're settling down with a curry for some ITV drama, then Ray Winstone pops up to say:

"Vis ain't just 'ard 'ittin' , it's 'ard-shitting".

A morbidly obese woman – resembling Bella Emberg - takes a rather painful dump in a dank, miserable public toilet, sweat dripping off her face, crying in anguish. The sights, the sounds - it evokes memories of that regrettable vindaloo from Caroline Street. In the end there's a close-up on a lot of dark blood clotting on toilet paper.

"Evry yeeuh, fifteen faahsand peepw in the UK die from bowew cancer. So tha' next time you take a tom tit, and notice somefing a bit fahnny in the old Wrigley's, get dahn the GP's."

You carry on eating. These adverts are now part of the background noise. Five years previously someone would've been looking at an obscenities charge, or the very least a Daily Mail headline reflecting on the hell of it all, but who's going to drag a charity through the courts? They all do it.

There are hints that shock tactics are starting to go out of fashion. The British Heart Foundation launched a campaign at the end of last year featuring Vinnie Jones. It was a funny, catchy way to remember basic life saving information using music and rhythm rather than a sense of impending doom, gore or primal fears.

In contrast back in 2008 the same charity used "shock tactics" – "Watch Your Own Heart Attack" – in which Steven Berkhoff describes in agonising detail what having a heart attack (or being beaten up by Steven Berkhoff) actually feels like.

I have my own opinion on which is more effective and sticks in the mind.

With charities now facing traditional business pressures as "consumers" become ever more discerning about where and why they donate money, I don't think the shock tactic, or the heartstring tugging advert are going to disappear any time soon. However if it becomes a default position that all advertisers and campaigners – private and public – fall back on because they can't think of something more creative, then the effect of knocking your around the head to change your behaviour or your lifestyle will ever lessen.

It'll become as corny as the low-budget crackle, the Hammer Horror production values and the gentle nagging of the 70s public information film.

Schmallenberg virus - a threat to Welsh farmers?

2012-02-23T18:00:00.000Z

Welsh lamb exports are opening doors in China and elsewhere,the last thing
Welsh farmers need is the threat posed by a virus speading from mainland Europe.
(Pic : Welshfoodie.com)

First some encouraging news.

Deputy Minister for Rural Affairs Alun Davies (Lab, Blaenau Gwent) recently told the National Sheep Association in a keynote speech that sheep farmers have "a lot to be optimistic about". Lamb exports have increased significantly over the years thanks to the success of cooperative ventures like Hybu Cig Cymru. Carwyn Jones has also reportedly discussed possible lamb deals with the Chinese in recent months.

Cases of the Schmallenburg virus, which affects sheep, goats and cattle, have been detected in the south east of England (with a case in Cornwall) after first appearing in Germany, Belgium, France and The Netherlands at the end of last year.

I have to stress though, so far no cases of Schmallenberg have been detected in Wales, but cases are starting to spread into the Westcountry so South Wales is now reported to be in the firing line.

The virus causes illness in cattle and deformities in newborn lambs (more detailed information from the Welsh Government here), although judging by some of the monitoring reports it appears to only affect small numbers in large herds. With the majority of lambing coming in the next few months this is a concern. Defra are monitoring the situation and are producing regular updates on infections and farm inspections.

At the end of January, Environment Minister John Griffiths (Lab, Newport East) published a new climate change risk assessment which included reference to new pests and diseases. But as far as I can tell, a question from Antoinette Sandbach (Con, North Wales) on that risk assessment is the only record of Schmallenberg being mentioned in the Senedd.

With the UK Government's recent decision to consolidate and downgrade veterinary health laboratories in Wales this is a timely reminder that these services are vital to farmers livelihoods in some of Wales's most isolated parts. According to Plaid's Jonathan Edwards MP by 2013 there'll be no veterinary lab testing facilities in Wales, despite agriculture being a largely devolved area.

I don't think we would tolerate NHS testing being centralised in this way, so why animal health? Especially when our meat exports could help build and strengthen economic links with China.

I hate to be a cloud on an otherwise sunny day but I don't need to underline the impact the virus could have on the rural economy if it made it's way to Wales and took hold.

Labour delivering (a horrible echo...cho...ho....o...)

2012-02-20T17:52:00.002Z

If you're a Pontypridd RFC fan/rugby fan following the various links on Facebook etc. - my post on the regions is here.

"Up above the streets and houses, Labour climbing high...igh...igh..gh....h"
Labour might be bouncing after their conference at the weekend
but Carwyn needs to stop the echoing.
(Pic : Metrostar Media)

Two of my favourite stops on the Welsh blogosphere - Valleys Mam and A Change of Personnel – have both lamented that not much appears to be happening and the Welsh blogosphere is running out of puff. I don't blame them.

Is it our fault for expecting miracles from a pretty weak Assembly with few "juicy" powers that, by and large, just goes through the motions week by week? Or perhaps there's another reason everything seems to trudge on with increasing familiarity, going around in circles, repeating the same points over and over again.

Minister approves multi-million pound hospital plans at Ysbyty Glan Clwyd - 26^th May 2011
Plans for £77m redevelopment of Ysbyty Glan Clwyd approved - 11th October 2011
Welsh Government gives go ahead to redevelopment of Ysbyty Glan Clwyd - 16^th February 2012

Hello?...ello?....ello?.....llo?....lo?.....lo?..........?

Cardiff Royal Infirmary to receive £16m revamp - 8^th June 2011
Go-ahead for £15.8m Cardiff Royal Infirmary revamp - 16^th January 2012

Bore da?.......re da?.......e da?.....da?....a?......?

Igloo submit plans for Cardiff creative industries centre - 14^th February 2011
Porth Teigr enters next phase of development - 13^th February 2012

Is there anyone there?....there? .......ere?.....ere?....re?.....e?

New link to reduce congestion on the M4 - 9^th March 2011
New access road for Newport moves a stage closer - 13^th February 2012

Echo!....cho!.....cho!.......ho!.......o! Echo!!.....cho!!.....cho!!.....ho!!......o!!

What next? Carl Sargeant turning up in a hard hat to announce the start of work on Harbour Way?

Now I do believe it's completely unfair to say the Welsh Government haven't done anything, but perhaps you can see where some of us are getting that impression.

Welsh Rugby Union : Time for a review?

2012-02-18T11:37:00.000Z

There's clearly a demand to watch rugby, but why not the regions?
(Pic: Eurosport)

Welsh rugby is currently on a high. After a relatively successful, if heart-breaking, World Cup last year, the national side have made a great start to the current Six Nations – even managing to draw 10,000 people to an open training session. However the regional sides have struggled to attract decent crowds, threatening their financial sustainability. Back in December the average gate at a Welsh regional home game in the Pro12 was just 6,300. Is Welsh Rugby peaking before a fall?

The Regions – success or failure?

The Labour MP for Pontypridd, Owen Smith, wrote an article on Wales Home a few weeks ago effectively calling for a "valleys regional side" and saying that rugby fans have been "sold short" by the current structure.

I'm not sure this is the right call for a number of reasons.

Firstly I believe there's a rose-tinted view of the game pre-regions. Attendances weren't great at any of the clubs in the old Welsh Premiership/Welsh-Scottish Premier. Clubs like Pontypridd did take massive support on the road – as highlighted here in a game against Bridgend, but the clubs were kept afloat largely off the back of wealthy benefactors. It was unsustainable. Creating the regions was the right call however unpopular it was and still is.

Secondly there's the question of talent. Isn't it sometimes better to promote quality over quantity? I'm sure many of the towns across Wales could support a top-flight team – but could they support a modern, professional team, paying top-end salaries? Unlike football, you generally can't just pick up a rugby ball and play at the top level. Rugby players are generally "made" or "born" and due to the highly specialised positions you need the strongest, biggest or quickest person for each one.

One of the reasons the regions were created was to boost the national team and by and large I think it's succeeded. That doesn't mean I'm saying it's perfect, clearly there are issues that need to be resolved.

What's gone wrong?

BBC Wales's Week In Week Out examined this a few weeks ago, following a family from the Bridgend valleys to see why they turned their back on the Ospreys, but continue to follow Bridgend Ravens and the national side.

We have to remember that Welsh rugby has always been rather tribal. It's a well worn point but expecting Pontypridd fans to support a "Cardiff" team is a bit like expecting Cardiff City and Swansea City to merge. These wern't regions – they were superclubs. I can't ignore the demise of the Celtic Warriors – effectively the "valley region" - in this debate, however the Warriors were on the track to becoming just another M4 club. The town of Bridgend and the southern half of the county is more an extension of the Vale of Glamorgan and Cardiff commuter belt after all. Although there were ambitions for the Warriors to relocate to a central location like Llantrisant, the WRU clearly had their heart set on just 4 regions from the outset.

The number of games on television is also cited as a concern. It often means games are moved to suit the broadcasters (an issue in football too) with a big carrot of TV money. It generally doesn't put bums on seats. At the end of a working week the last thing your average family wants to do is go through the effort of travelling from home, hours after returning from work or school, to an out of town stadium or a city centre on a Friday night. It's easier to just stick the telly on.

Owen Smith does have a point about the game becoming a "commodity" instead of something that belongs to the community. Sadly that's not just confined to rugby, commercial pressures are being exerted on all sports. Fans clearly want to a "connection" with players and want to see a "local boy do good". There's a disconnect between the clubs ( and their communities) and the regions and nothings been done to try and bridge that gap.

In trying to solve these issues, I think we actually have to take a leaf from America's NFL and New Zealand's domestic rugby set up.

Proposed new structure for Welsh rugby union

(Click to enlarge)

Schools Rugby

A focus on developing technical skills, developing interest and knowledge of the laws.

A gentle introduction to tackling, starting with tag rugby.

Tag rugby games against primary schools with uncontested scrums on smaller pitches. Full-contact competitive games shouldn't start until Under-12 level.

Training sessions with pro-players in the respective region nearing retirement (for coaching/referee qualifications)

Retain competitive inter-school/college league and cup competitions for older teenagers. Games should ideally not clash with regional or club fixtures.

At the bottom are the schools. Schools play an important role in getting kids interested in the game in the first place. Skills should be introduced slowly and gradually. I can only speak for myself but as someone who can be described as "vertically challenged" and one of the youngest pupils in my year, having to play full-contact rugby as a 10 year old with and against boys sometimes twice my size was absolutely terrifying. It put me off playing the game for life and threw me right into the arms of football. It's only in the last ten years or so I could even watch a rugby game the memories were that bad.

As kids get older it should become clear to PE teachers and scouts who amongst the respective year groups had the potential to make a step up to semi-professional or even professional level. The existing school and college league/cup system should be strengthened so these players can stand out more, the best being selected for the Wales Under-18s or Under-16s national sides.

Club Rugby

Should revert to being a wholly amateur game again – Welsh rugby's "heart". Clubs could be run on a cooperative model.

National Leagues and cups would largely be unchanged but perhaps club games could be moved to Sundays to avoid clashing with regional games.

Would continue to provide additional training and playing opportunities for youngsters, but more for fun and enjoyment than serious player development.

Clubs would continue to "bridge the gap" between the WRU and grass roots and should be the first port of call for fans of all ages.

The "Super 16"

A new semi-professional competition based on New Zealand's ITM Cup or US "College Football". It would be the premier domestic competition and clubs would also compete in the British & Irish Cup.

Super 16 sides should use local FE College training facilities as bases.

Four licenced clubs per region based on multiple criteria including catchment area, club facilities, recent record in the Welsh Premiership and history of player development (indicative list) :

Blues : Cardiff, Pontypridd + 2 others
Ospreys : Bridgend, Swansea, Aberavon, Neath
Dragons : Newport, Ebbw Vale, Cross Keys, + 1 other
Scarlets : Llanelli, Gogledd Cymru, Carmarthen Quins, Llandovery

There could be a case for not including clubs from towns/cities that host a regional side.

Season could be made formatted as:

1. Two 8-team conferences – East (Scarlets & Ospreys) & West (Blues & Dragons) – playing once against teams in own conference and once to teams in opposite conference. Top 3 in each go to end-of-season play-offs to determine a champion (second v third placed sides, winners v first place sides, grand final) and would also qualify for the following season's British & Irish Cup.

2. A 16-team division with each side playing against the others once either home or away (15 game regular season) followed by a play off series.

The competition could be expanded to include "up and coming" clubs rather easily – that's the reasoning for only playing one game against other sides per season. It also helps make every game an "event" – especially derby games.

Under performing clubs could be replaced by the best performing club in their region every X years (similar to Super League licencing).

These "superclubs" would act as the academy for the regional sides, with a minimum number of players aged under-23. Fans would be watching "internationals of the future" as locally as possible.

End of season draft

Any under-23 players from the Super 16 would be eligible for the draft and the opportunity to become a professional. "Exceptional talents" can be drafted at a younger age, but no younger than 18.

Players should be expected to become a professional by age 23 and either drop down to the club game, be kept on as a semi-pro player in the Super 16 or be helped into coaching or refereeing.

The lowest placed Welsh region in the Pro12 would have first pick and the highest last pick.

Regions can trade draft picks with one another for older players out of contract or for an extra draft pick in a subsequent year. Regions can also pass on a draft pick if they don't want to select any of the remaining players.

If a drafted player accepts a contract offer with a region, their school, club (if relevant) and their Super 16 club would be compensated for a set % of the value of the contract or a mutually agreed fee.

Drafted players are under no obligation to accept a contract offer from a region. If a player turns down an offer, the region would have an extra pick or if a drafted player has their heart set on a particular region, the two regions can negotiate a settlement (i.e. Player exchange or draft pick trade).

The Regions

Would remain the highest level in the domestic game and the only fully professional level. They would no longer have academy's, that role would be undertaken by the "Super 16".

A salary cap should remain in place. Older players moving abroad would be replaced by "drafted" players from the Super 16.

Central contracting is often mentioned but is probably unworkable. The regions should maintain some autonomy from the WRU.

The regions should be expected to take games "on the road" within their region, especially games where they wouldn't expected to fill more than 40% of their main stadium.

As a result the WRU should work with the "Super 16" sides to improve their stadia to a minimum standard required to host regional games.

In the long term a fully-blown European league is possible, perhaps 2 divisions with promotion and relegation between them and the Heineken Cup becoming a straight knock out competition. This could lead to the NH nations developing their own "Super 16"/ITM Cup for the clubs left out. Wales could be a step ahead by starting early.

Broadcasting

The number of live games shown on TV has been
given as a reason for a slump in regional game attendances.
(Pic : BBC)

The NFL has a system called a"blackout" where local home games are not broadcast on the local TV network to ensure attendances at the games themselves hold up. It's similar to there being no 3pm live games in football.

I'd propose a reciprocal broadcasting arrangement whereby only away games involving respective nations sides/regions in the Pro12 should be broadcast live. So for example BBC Alba would show Glasgow and Edinburgh away games, and S4C/BBC the Welsh regions playing away. Big derby games could be an exception to this.

The Pro12 sides could consider a joint TV rights bid like the Premier League and should also consider commercial terrestrial broadcasters (ITV Wales, STV, TV3) to broadcast highlights – Scrum V effectively acts as a Pro 12 Match of the Day – as well as live matches.

The "Super 16" should also have a (single) live game every week, full coverage of the play-off series or a highlights show. The WRU, Region and Super 16 sides should consider investing in mobile aps and in online "magazine" coverage.

Plaid Leadership : Where do they want to take Plaid?

2012-02-15T18:20:00.000Z

In this section I'm looking in closer detail at what each of the candidates propose for Plaid itself; it's policies, relationship with other parties and internal structures.

In the next couple of weeks I'll take a final look at the candidates views on independence and the possible directions Welsh nationalism could take under each potential leader.

Simon Thomas has withdrawn as you already know, so that leaves three other candidates.

Dafydd Elis Thomas (Campaign Website)

Dafydd believes that Plaid should aim to be a "party in government". He's called for something reminiscent of the "progressive alliance" mooted at Westminster in 2010 – a coalition with Labour and possibly the Liberal Democrats for the sake of "effective democracy". He takes a holistic approach to the nature of devolution in Wales and believes it's his duty, and Plaid's, to ensure the Welsh Government delivers it's pledges. If Dafydd becomes leader there'll be a One Wales II that much is clear. However he does appear to rule out working with the Conservatives, unless Labour were no longer the largest party.

A key plank of Dafydd's campaign is sustainable development and a "green economy". He says he would like to "enforce sustainable development across Wales". He also believes that Wales can be a "world leader in sustainability and environmental issues". Dafydd understands the importance economic drivers are in environmentalism and would like to invest in "green jobs" as part of a wider "green stimulus". He focuses on improving "green skills in the construction sector" as one way to kick start that process. Whether you consider his support for nuclear power a contradiction to these green ideals is for you to decide. I know what I think of it. Nuclear power? No thanks.

Thorium-fuelled nuclear power is a different story but the technology is probably decades away. Thorium is relatively abundant compared to the amount needed to fuel a reactor and guess which part of Europe has some of the largest reserves? Until then it has to be renewables all the way.

From his answers in the BBC Q&A it looks like Dafydd has brushed off many of the findings of the Moving Forward report and certainly doesn't support a name change for example.

Elin Jones (Campaign Website)

Elin believes that Plaid has "more important things to do than revel in Westminster politics on a Welsh stage". She wants the party to to "reach out and listen" more and has broadly welcomed the Moving Forward report – including the proposed name change. Elin believes there's a "place in Plaid for everyone" but she would "expect discipline" from both new members and old members alike. I'm not sure what that means exactly. Elin is ambitious for where Plaid should go, saying that Plaid "cannot allow Wales to become a one-party state" and that the next Plaid leader "should aim to be First Minister".

Does that mean Elin isn't ruling out a possible coalition with the Conservatives to achieve that? She doesn't seem too enamoured with Andrew Davies but goes on to say that it's Plaid membership that would decide any coalition, not the leader.

Elin goes into some detail on public services. She laments that "the NHS of Aneurin Bevan has ceased to exist" and goes on to say that Wales shouldn't follow the reforms of the English NHS. Elin also rules out profit motive in health services – but what if they were "nicer" forms of profit, like cooperatives or social enterprises? On education Elin believes that children should be "challenged by the education system to reach their fullest potential" – echoing the recent Estyn report that suggests that more able students in primary schools are let down.

As an economist, Elin touches on fiscal policy saying she supports "the distribution of wealth via progressive taxation" and that "income taxes based on ability to pay is the fairest form of taxation". She also underlines the need to tackle child poverty in Wales – as Labour have often laudably (but in my opinion misguidedly) targeted. Elin also makes the point that "economic policy needs to be tailored to Wales's needs not the City of London".

Elin would like to see a "second industrial revolution" based on natural resources exploited for Wales's benefit – echoing other candidate's calls for a "green economy" or a "devolution of control over natural resources". She believes Wales needs to "unleash talent" in small businesses – a nod towards that old chestnut of "less red tape"?.

On the future of the Welsh language Elin says it isn't secure and that Plaid should continue to support it's growth. Also more interestingly Elin says she would like Wales to become a "multi-lingual society beyond bilingualism". Does that mean a third language taught in primary schools becoming official Plaid policy? Judging by recent reports Wales hasn't quite got the bilingualism bit nailed down just yet.

As an additional note, her maneuverings re. Simon Thomas/Jac-do show a somewhat Machiavellian side to Elin. There might be a bit of steel under those brightly-coloured cardigans after all. For some reason I quite like that.

Leanne Wood (Campaign Website)

Leanne has gone into some detail on where Plaid as a party could improve itself, perhaps more so than other candidates. She notes that Plaid need to sort out "policy inconsistencies", though she doesn't cite any particular examples. Somewhat surprisingly Leanne hasn't mentioned public services in her campaign yet (AFAIK). I don't think any of us need to think twice about what her stance would be there though.

Leanne has a clear vision for the role Plaid could play, saying that the party should strive "to end war, inequality and discrimination" and that the economy should "distribute wealth fairly". The bedrock of Leanne's views and vision for the economy are in the "Greenprint for the Valleys" document and I intend to look in greater detail at that at a later date.

Leanne has also recently published a detailed document on possible green energy proposals, which you can read courtesy of Syniadau. She has consistency in supporting a green, decentralised economy based on cooperatives and mutualism – echoing The Collective Entrepreneur. In a nod to traditional capitalism she also believes that small businesses "needs to be supported to foster enterprise". Leanne has clearly put in a lot of hard graft in compiling these policy documents and setting out a clear policy direction for Plaid, but some of it does read as a bit wishy-washy at times (yes I'm a fine one to talk).

She plays to the gallery by saying Plaid need to break new ground in Labour heartlands by showing Labour voters that Plaid shares their concerns. That's probably the main reason she's built up such a momentum behind her. Of the three candidates I don't doubt that Leanne would be the most likely to be able to do this. However it's not a guarantee. An increase in vote share not matched by an increase in seats wouldn't do her any good.

Leanne wipes the idea of a coalition with the Conservatives out right away. A Leanne-led Plaid wouldn't work with anyone who would "obstruct the path to independence". Strong stuff, but is it pragmatic? I'm unconvinced.

For Plaid's structures, Leanne suggests several changes. The ones that stick out are proposals that local party meetings should be revamped - with open Q&A's. On membership she would like members to be "clear what role they can play to further the aims of our independence project" with an interconnected "active tier" of members. I think that's an absolutely outstanding idea and I hope whoever wins the leadership takes that on board. She believes there needs to be "better communication between the grassroots, elected officials and the leadership".

As a Welsh learner herself, she approaches the Welsh language in a positive manner, saying that although Plaid needs to move away from "being seen as a Welsh language only party", Plaid should be unapologetic about it's support for Welsh and treat it as an equalities issue.

AWEMA - someone in Cardiff needs to own up

2012-02-13T18:21:00.000Z

More on this at Jac OThe North, Inside Out, National Left, The Western Mail, Betsan Powys, Gareth Hughes and Wales Home.

It's been a point made elsewhere but Martin Shipton and his team at The Western Mail (as well as BBC Wales and the South Wales Evening Post) need to be congratulated for this excellent piece of investigative journalism. It's shows the true value a solid national press has for Wales and the vital role it plays in holding TPTB to account.

The latest report from the Welsh Government and Big Lottery Fund was published last week into the goings-on at All Wales Ethnic Minority Association (AWEMA). We've had things called "scandals" in the past (Nick Bourne's Ipod, The Lib Dem 2, second homes in Penarth and Rosie Butler's table), but I'd agree with Daran Hill that this is "perhaps the biggest scandal around the use of public money since devolution began". However we have to put this in perspective. It's still small fry compared to some of Westminster's shenanigans.

You probably already know about what happened but here's a summary of the allegations from the latest report:

AWEMA didn't submit any accounts to Companies House or the Charity Commission for the year 2010-11 and no management accounts exist having "not been produced for some time".
There's an "absence of key policies and procedures within AWEMA", for example an expenses policy, conflict of interests register or register of hospitality's given/taken – this was taken advantage of (mobile phone bills paid, greetings cards, parking charges) although the sums were small and backed with receipts.
Creditor information was not available - said to be vital to give assurance of solvency.
Naz Malik (the CEO) hadn't been subject to a performance appraisal since 2006.
ABOMA (the board of management) held no regular meetings or were done so on an "ad hoc" basis with big gaps between them – sometimes as long as 11 months.
Naz Malik's decisions were only given retrospective approval by ABOMA.
Expenditure from AWEMA's funds included £2,100 on gym membership, £800 on rugby and cricket tickets and one of Naz Malik's parking tickets worth £110. None of these were disclosed to HMRC and it's unclear if these were funded from public money.
Naz Malik relied on the Financial Director for details of financial processes, when as CEO he should have "a key duty in overseeing these processes".
The AWEMA payroll system was "seriously inadequate". The three directors salaries were "high in comparison to other members of AWEMA" though action has now been taken by ABOMA.
Naz Malik's daughter reported to him as a director, a "clear conflict of interest" and her salary increased from £20,498 in 2008 to £50,052 in 2012 with Naz Malik present at meetings of ABOMA (when approving salary increases) both as CEO and an ABOMA member.

The most damning statement of all is that there can be "no assurances" that there were "appropriate arrangements in place to safeguard and make proper use of Welsh Government (£105k), Wales European Funding Office (£5m) or Big Lottery Funds (£523k) entrusted to AWEMA". That's a potential (and I have to stress potential) misuse of some £6million in public funds.

But it gets worse.

As you probably know the Welsh Government were warned about AWEMA in a 2004 report (found by a Lib Dem researcher – more on that at Gareth Hughes's blog) that suggested all public funding was stopped there and then.

So it's taken the Welsh Government 8 years to act, after they commissioned their own report into AWEMA, after the resignation of their acting chairman in 2007 and after that report rung whacking great big alarm bells that AWEMA had issues.

We needn't dwell on the fact that the Malik family are prominent Labour members and supporters. I don't buy that this was a conspiracy - just a toxic mix of negligence, arrogance and old fashioned cronyism. In fairness Labour were quick to suspend them and appear content to stall things for now while distancing themselves from the Malik's and AWEMA. No doubt they'll want to "move on to the important issues that matter to the people of Wales blah blah blah" and they'd have a point.

However this going to be hard for them to shake off for the following reason.

Somebody, somewhere, signed off public money to AWEMA back in 2004 (probably with the best of intentions) while ignoring independent advice wilfully or accidentally. Presumably a social justice, European affairs or equalities minister, a deputy minister or a senior civil servant.

Only the anoraks who follow Welsh politics closely are really interested in this and we're comfortably out-numbered by those who aren't. However I think we'll all be more forgiving if that person (or persons) owned up instead of hunkering down hoping this will blow over. If it turns out public money they signed off has been abused in any significant way, a dent in their pride by taking ownership of their mistake should be the least of their concerns.

At the very least that person(s) has to come out with an apology, explain the reasons why they ignored the original report and cooperate with any new investigations. The sooner the better. We don't know what any possible criminal investigation could reveal though I suspect the worst of it is already public knowledge.

I'm not going to speculate on who that could be.

Of course that's small comfort to those losing their jobs or having their schemes/funding/programme under threat by AWEMA's demise. I hope that all those who had nothing to do with this can move on to better things.

I also hope someone in Cardiff Bay or Cathays Park is having their conscience tugged before someone else tugs it for them.

Independence Minutiae : Wales & Net Neutrality

2012-02-11T11:44:00.000Z

What is "Net Neutrality"?

Network neutrality, or "net neutrality" is the view that all traffic on the internet should be "treated equally". That means that access to all websites, web content and other internet platforms is the same for all internet users and only restricted by their hardware or software capabilities (i.e. connection speeds).

It's a bit like having a subscription to satellite/cable television and having the same service regardless of which company you subscribe to.

Why is this important?

The internet is the most open medium in existence and a major technological and social breakthrough – although I don't think it's correct to say it's completely unrestricted. Companies can come out of nowhere and become major players in their field. It can be a force for political change and it's an important weapon in the fight against corruption and in local and global campaigns for greater transparency.

Of course the internet has it's darker side. The so-called "deep web" however isn't something 99.9% of people know about, let alone access regularly (it requires certain software and proxies). Most of the extreme pornography, hacking and copyright infringement will start off there with a little of it making it's way up into the visible "surface web".

What threatens it?

Many telecommunication providers see potential in offering "tiered" access to the internet. That means a company could charge more for faster access to certain websites or web services when currently everything is open to everybody unless blocked. It could also mean bigger companies could block the websites of potential competitors or start-ups that would threaten their business.

Using my earlier satellite television analogy. The internet could become a marketplace with differences between ISP's being like those between Sky, Virgin Media or ESPN. You might be able to access Facebook on all ISP's, but a few sites/services – for arguments sake iTunes, Netflix, Skype or Twitter - could become "exclusive" to certain ISP's or slower depending on how much you're willing to pay.

The latest threat comes in the fight against online copyright infringement. I'm certainly not condoning it by the way and agree that there needs to be a sensible resolution to the issue. In the US the "Stop Online Piracy Act" (SOPA) and the "Protect IP Act" (PIPA) are the two latest attempts to clamp down on online piracy. Both are very wide ranging in scope and vague in their definitions. It could - in the loosest definitions possible - allow authorities to close websites that host user content (like Youtube videos with a soundtrack in the background), bar search engines or ISP's from allowing access to sites that breach copyright infringement (i.e Torrents) and as a result possible discourage investment in new internet ventures – potentially costing jobs rather than saving them.

SOPA/PIPA look unlikely to be passed by the US Congress. However a new bill has been introduced by the creator of SOPA called the "Protecting Children from Internet Pornographers Act" that includes measures that would allow the tracking of IP addresses and financial details under the cover of a welcome arsenal in the fight against child pornography.

Perhaps what the US really needs a "Neutral Titles for Bills Act".

What are the arguments against net neutrality?

Obviously ISP's own the infrastructure that carry the internet, so any restriction on what they can and cannot do with it could be considered a violation of their property rights.

With the internet ever expanding, companies like Skype have been accused of "freeloading" on infrastructure and bandwidth that ISP's pay for, construct or maintain. ISP's and other telecoms companies believe that offering tiered/prioritised access would enable them to invest more in their infrastructure through higher charges to preferential users.

There's also the argument that net neutrality laws would provide another "red tape" burden that would stifle innovation and competition.

What's the current UK position?

The Minister for Culture, Communications and Creative industry is on record as backing an end to net neutrality in the UK. Ed Vaizey said in November 2010 that "in order for the internet to continue as the open, innovative force for good that it has been for the last 20 years it is essential that all elements continue to prosper". He argued that many ISPs already have some form of "traffic management" to ensure smooth running "without compromising on competition or consumer rights".

The ISP Association welcomed this as a "lightly-regulated, market-led approach".

There have been several debates in Westminster down the years, including one sponsored by American telecoms company AT&T. It was decided that net neutrality laws would be "extreme, unattractive and impractical".

Even the US – where the issue is most widely debated - has what could be loosely described as net neutrality laws or rulings in the judiciary that protect net neutrality in principle.

The EU is establishing a "framework" to protect net neutrality with pressure on the EU Commission at the end of 2011 to make new EU laws protecting net neutrality in all member states.

What could an independent Wales do?

It would probably make Wales a pariah, especially to Hollywood executives, but I believe that "net neutrality" should be enshrined in any Welsh constitution. It could be a 21^st century partner to "freedom of speech" or "freedom of assembly" clauses.

Belgium, The Netherlands, France and Italy have all passed or are considering passing laws that protect net neutrality to varying degrees. Many other EU member states, in particular Germany and Spain, are coming under pressure from their telecoms companies to abandon net neutrality

If the EU does establish some form of net neutrality law and Wales eventually becomes an EU member state then this might render that requirement null and void.

Welsh Government makes a splash on school toilets

2012-02-09T17:51:00.000Z

Lack of supervision, a laissez-faire attitude to defecation and bullying.
I'll be posting on the AWEMA report another time.
(Pic : Time.com)

I like to pride myself on looking at issues in Welsh politics that might get overlooked. Sometimes that means looking under a rock and not finding anything particularly interesting. Back in January I noticed that the Welsh Government issued new guidelines for school toilets. As a challenge to myself I decided to actually try to blog on it and make it as interesting as possible.

It's easy to criticise present and previous Welsh Government's for focusing on minor "quality of life" concerns just so they can say they've done something. However in this case there's a serious side. Back in 2005 an outbreak of E-coli in south Wales schools affected 150 people, lead to 31 hospitalisations and the death of 5-year old Mason Jones from Caerphilly. There have also been smaller outbreaks since; Wrexham in 2009, Bangor and Swansea in November 2011.

In the Pennington Inquiry which followed the 2005 outbreak, it was recommended that the Welsh Government look at toilet facilities in schools. As a result Education Minister Leighton Andrews (Lab, Rhondda) and Health Minister Lesley Griffiths (Lab, Wrexham) carried out a joint venture between their departments. They surveyed 1,800 pupils and 71% described their school toilets as "horrible" or "quite bad". Only 3% described them as "nice".

The pan-UK campaign Bog Standard was set up in 2003 to raise awareness of school toilets and provide information to schools, architects, parents and pupils on what they can do to improve them. They published "Lifting the lid on the nation's school toilets" which was taken up by the Children's Commissioner for Wales and formed part of the foundation for the new guidelines.

Poor school toilets can spread diseases, lead to health problems in later life if pupils are reluctant to use them (ie. chronic constipation, "small bladder syndrome") and as an "adult-free zone" can be breeding grounds for bullying and sometimes lack the basic essentials for privacy.

The new guidelines recommend several examples of "good practice":

Schools will require a written toilet policy with the participation of pupils and governors.
Toilets should be free to use at all hours a school is open.
Staggered checks of toilets by staff as a deterrent to bad behaviour.
Toilets should be warm enough in the winter.
No location of drinking water in toilet areas.
Proper supervision of hand washing amongst younger children.
Proper provision and disposal of sanitary products in girl's toilets for those aged 8 or over.
Toilets should be cleaned at the end of every school day, with cloths, mops etc. not used anywhere else in a school.
Toilets should be inspected, adequately budgeted and inspections properly recorded.

All well and good, a lot of common sense there, but you also have crackers like:

Disabled toilet cubicles should be big enough to manoeuvre a wheelchair (simply revolutionary).
Toilet paper dispensers should be mounted where they are easily accessible ( as opposed to hanging from the roof like a piñata?) .
All toilets should have seats and should be strong enough to cope with a high volume of users (I realise childhood obesity is a concern but....).
"Malodours" should be prevented within toilet areas (kids love the smell of fresh turd in the morning......smells like.....victory).
CCTV should be considered at the entrance/exit when "all other options have failed" regarding supervision (..............yeeeeeah.......good luck with that one).

As far as I know, the Welsh Government are the first in the UK to publish "good practice" guidelines like this. Very well intentioned, very relevant with regard good hygiene practice, I'm not criticising it.

However, like their approach to sex education, I wish the Welsh Government would learn that sometimes 45 pages of guidance can be whittled down to under 10 pages. Separate the guidance that goes out to relevant people/authorities (shorter, less bureaucratic) from the documents and studies justifying it (longer, more legalese).

Everyone is happier.

The Collective Entrepreneur : Social Enterprise & The Smart State

2012-02-06T18:56:00.000Z

(Owen : For those of you who've got wood for Leanne, yes I'll be giving the "treatment" to Greenprint for the Valleys at some point)

Robert Owen (1771-1858)
Are his ideals finding new life in the 21st Century?
(Pic: Robert Owen.com)

Last March by joint report was published by Prof. Kevin Morgan of Cardiff University and Adam Price (no not the Borgen creator) entitled The Collective Entrepreneur – Social Enterprise and the Smart State. Backed by Community Housing Cymru and the Charity Bank, the report looked in detail at the opportunities social enterprise, cooperatives and mutualism can bring to the UK (under the banner of the Big Society) as well as a detailed look at Wales. The foreword by Prof. Ian Hargreaves trumpets a "revival of the spirit of Robert Owen."

The reason I'm posting this now, is because in the past few months, "new capitalism", "mutualism" and "cooperatives" have been in the news due to a "decaying case for a monoculture of shareholder-led enterprise". This is embodied by the rise in things like open-source software - given as an example of the rise in mutualism and collaboration in business.

In From the Margins

The fallout from the Credit Crunch "exposed the shortcomings of the traditional business model", particularly the banking sector and credit agencies. However social enterprises have a "Cinderella status", being a "poor relation to conventional business".

Andrew Haldane of the Bank of England argued that there needed to be "more systemic diversity" in the financial sector because the UK banking industry's over-dependence on share-holder owned PLC's led to a "homogeneity" that "bred fragility". As risk-management at these companies failed the interconnectivity and similarity between individual bank's business models caused the crisis to spread quickly and devastatingly (contagion).

The creation of banking mutuals like credit union in Wales promotes Haldane's "systemic diversity". They also protect consumer choice - something seen as critical to providing more resilience in the financial services sector. The report also says that government needs to realise that social enterprise cannot just be an "arm of the state". The sector needs it's own distinctiveness.

The Collective Entrepreneur

Big social changes rarely come about without some sort of crisis. The NHS and welfare state as we know it came about as the result of the Second World War. Also before this David Lloyd George's rapid social reforms post World War One could also be an example.

Although not completely diminished, the anger
against the excesses of the free market has been replaced
with disappointment after the Occupy Movement's failure.
(Pic : The Telegraph)

The credit crunch made us "ask questions about the nature and purpose of enterprise". However the momentum was lost. Look at the Occupy Movement – a "popular" cause that lost steam quickly. Were these examinations too uncomfortable for the free-market orthodoxy? Or did we have too many distractions? Phone-hacking, the Olympics, the Royal Wedding, MP's expenses.........

The report highlights two different types of entrepreneur. The "Heroic" and the "Collective".

The Heroic Entrepreneur – a neo-liberal, rugged-individualist soldier in a war against state control. Austrian economist Joseph Schumpeter is called the "ambassador" for this type – saying that these individuals are not content with "being ruled", they "break routine" and are visionaries with "mental freedom". Schumpeter also interestingly argued that as socialisation grew alongside innovation and technological developments this "type must diminish".

During the rise on neo-liberalism this "hero" was given a new lease of life as a personification of the free-market. This celebration of the heroic entrepreneur gave the impression that "social inequalities in wealth were the result of individual differences in talent".

However teamwork is in fact a key to enterprise success - a fact "ignored by centre-right politicians". A study is cited of Wall Street analysts where "star performers" who transferred to a different setting experienced a drop in performance that lasted as long as 5 years.

Collective Entrepreneur – Enterprise is seen as a collective social endeavour where "the team is the hero". Innovative firms aim to create a "corporate community" where workers and managers exchange innovation and ideas freely. Some of the worlds biggest and most innovative companies – Google and Facebook for example – do tend to use this sort of model. Indeed it's very common in "knowledge intensive industries".

Facebook HQ - An example of a new type of workplace hierarchy.
(Pic : Abduzeedo.com)

This changing nature of authority is said to present problems however. Authority would be based on knowledge instead of a strict, layered hierarchy. That could mean that some workers could be answerable to those "below them" rather than superiors.

Collective entrepreneurship can't be given a singular definition. Indeed the roles of the knowledge economy and the social economy are quite different. The knowledge economy is focused on making profit, while the social economy is about providing a service with a surplus to ensure sustainability. The report argues however that many industries not traditionally associated with cooperatives or mutualism still extol the virtues of cooperation and teamwork.

In social enterprises, there's a "strong element of mutual support as a response to social and ecological problems". Robin Murray of the LSE argues that social economy requires "new infrastructures, tools and means of distributing resources services, new forms of organisation and new ways of linking the formal and informal economies".

From Big State to Big Society

At first glance the authors compliment the Conservative Party's Big Society vision. They say that David Cameron draws on a "One Nation" conservatism and that Eric Pickle's Localism Bill could "easily appear word for word in a centre-left manifesto" with it's aims to "fundamentally shape balance of power in society......letting councils and communities run their own affairs". David Cameron is said to be trying to reshape the state "in the interests of civil society" undoing the Thatcherite policy of reshaping for market interests.

Cameron's Big Society is the opposite of previous Thatcherite
ideology of what society is and what role the state should play in shaping it.
(Pic : Political Scrapbook)

They are also critical of Labour's state-centric approach which gave the impression that the public sector as "neither democratic nor innovative" when they had in the past looked towards mutualism more.

On a closer examination of the Coalition's deficit reduction programme, it appears to be out of kilter with the Big Society ideals. Local authorities in particular are looking at "27% cuts over the four years to 2015". As a whole the voluntary sector is reliant on the public sector in the UK, so declining income from state sources would leave "too big a gap to be filled". Of the £12.8bn public money spent on the voluntary sector in 2007-08, 70% of that came from public contracts and the remaining 30% from public grants. Liverpool City Council, one of four pilot councils for the scheme, say it would be "impossible to pursue Big Society aims while absorbing £100m of budget cutbacks".

To counteract this a Big Society Bank is to be set up, funded by dormant bank accounts as well as donations from the commercial "big banks". However the arrangements and scope of those donations is yet to be decided.

Threats and Opportunities for the Social Enterprise Sector

Opportunities

1. More opportunities for direct service provision as the state cuts back.
2. Social enterprises could receive a proportion of the public money saved as a result of their work (Social Impact Bonds).
3. "Community Asset Transfers" from public sector to third sector.
4. Up to £236bn (2009-10) in public procurement possibly open to social enterprises.
5. Social enterprise could help public sector meet social and environmental goals as they are dropped due to costs.
6. Skills burden/dearth could be addressed by drawing on pool of unemployed graduates.

Threats

1. Public spending could dry up faster than public markets open to social enterprises.
2. Social enterprises need alternative sources of finance (40% of surveyed social enterprises were reliant on the state).
3. "Community Asset Transfers" can become a liability if the resources aren't there to maintain them.
4. "Management culture" in the public sector means penalties outweigh awards when risks are taken.
5. Social enterprises need to be able to form consortia to become credible bidders for big contracts.
6. More action is needed from government to develop leadership skills in the third sector.

Wales : The Social Network Nation

Social enterprise in Wales is expected to thrive due to the communitarian values, including the historic "cymortha" tradition of collective harvesting. Wales has historically high reserves of social capital and the Wales Co-operative Centre is said to be the largest co-operative development body in the UK. Wales is also said to be responsible for 8% of UK social enterprise turnover compared to a population share of 5%. However these statistics are dubbed "questionable" and when compared to general business, the proportion of social enterprises was much smaller.

The longest running co-ops in Wales are agricultural societies, established due to the "dogged determination" of Augustus Brigstocke from Carmarthenshire. These societies had government support and these models of co-operation in agriculture continues today with the "successful marketing co-ops for Welsh Beef and Lamb". The Miners Institutes of industrial Wales are also given as an example of Welsh cooperative tradition, with many out-surviving the mines they were formed for.

The report outlines three challenges needed to be overcome to sustain the growth of cooperatives in Wales.

1. Social Procurement

The biggest possible consumer for social enterprises is government. However social enterprises "face the same barriers as other small businesses" listed as; too much information, being perceived as high-risk ventures, the lack of trading record, public contracts being too large in scale and a decision process that emphasises cost reduction.

Public bodies have responded to these barriers by using EU procurement "community benefit" clauses to give social enterprises a "hook" with which to win public contracts. An example is given of the One Wales government encouraging the NHS and social landlords to use social enterprises in procurement. Despite this Welsh Government statistics show that their procurement arm, Value Wales, only sought 8% of services from social enterprises.

The report says that there needs to be more detailed data on the social market share of government procurement and suggests setting a target of 20% of public procurement from social enterprises by 2020.

Joint purchasing agreements in the public sector created larger contracts than individual social enterprises could realistically provide for. Local authorities, the report suggests, should be given financial incentives to include "community benefit" clauses – for example by the Welsh Government rewarding organisations that include these clauses in a high percentage of their purchases.

Another, more interesting suggestion - to immediately save up to £30million in procurement costs - is to transfer all major public sector IT contracts to open-source software.

Housing stock transfers have met resistance in Wales, but by transferring social housing to community housing mutuals – these housing associations are said to have become "major players" in themselves. Welsh housing associations have not only sought procurement from other social enterprises but have established their own. Moneyline Cymru – an alternative to doorstep lenders – is given as an example, as is the fuel-efficiency Arbed programme to retrofit social housing – recently given a boost in the Welsh Government's budget deal with the Liberal Democrats.

The report wonders whether the Welsh Government will continue to carry this experiment into services like health and education. Combining the "entrepreneuralism of the private sector with the accountability of public services" can "drive up quality and effectiveness of Welsh public services".

Examples of where this might work is in the reorganisation of rural schools, where parents and teachers form co-operative trusts as an alternative to LEA's.

Co-operatives are cited as being a "bulwark against (the) privatisation" of social care and there are plenty of examples already. The Assembly could aim for social enterprise to be the "biggest supplier of social care within a generation".

Social enterprises are already a part of the healthcare scene - despite the potential for controversy in this area. Children's hospice Ty Hafan is the leading example but there are also others, particularly in mental health and substance misuse. Independent health providers in Wales are said to be "closer to healthcare friendly societies" than outwardly profit-driven health providers.

With the possible future devolution of S4C to the Assembly, Gerry Holtham suggested a mutual solution there too. Viewers could made voluntary contributions to S4C's funding as a "partner" and the S4C Authority would be elected by it's membership, which is said would increase accountability. Labour have also suggested that the BBC Trust become a mutual.

2. Scaling up, skilling up

The Welsh Social Enterprise Coaltion is "challenging some cherished beliefs within parts of the social enterprise movement". They call for social enterprise to turn into a "large-scale economic model". Despite these ambitions, RBS says that social enterprise growth in Wales is the slowest in the UK in spite of an inherent "cooperative culture".

The report says that over the next 20 years, Wales should aim to create three "beacon firms"; another Glas Cymru, a financial mutual to rival Principality Building Society and a "Welsh John Lewis" (I recently suggest something similar for Peacocks).

Jeff Skoll, founder of ebay is quoted as saying that "social entrepreneurs will be the driving force of next 100 years". Wales needs to become it's own centre of excellence during this future boom in the social market. It goes onto suggest a "Social Business School", with a Master of Social Business Administration, which would work to build skills in the existing social market as well as disadvantaged communities. The report creates an ambitious future role for Wales, including a "Hay Festival for social enterprise" inspired by the TED movement as well as many more ambitious plans outlined in the next section.

3. Finance is key

Surveys have found that good finance and funding are the greatest enabler of success. Out of the "People's Bank" idea, floated by both Labour and Plaid Cymru, there is a "public appetite for an ethical financial sector".

A Development Bank – Finance Wales would be moved from being a public interest company to once based on the Glas Cymru model. It could be part financed by the creation of Labour-owned investment and pension funds, however this would require central government support and legislative changes (an argument for independence? Wales wouldn't have to wait for "central government support").

The 8 major public sector pension funds in Wales have a collective £6billion under management. Even the diversion of a small amount of this would have a big impact on the capital available to business in Wales. It's said the creation of an "All Wales Pension Fund" would save on administration fees and would focus exclusively on investment in Welsh businesses, regeneration and public infrastructure – especially housing.

Could a "social enterprise square mile" become Wales's niche?
(Pic : Guardian Cardiff)

Mutual Home Ownership – In partnership with Welsh mutuals (Principality, Swansea & Monmouthshire Building Societies), tenants would pay a monthly payment for a share of collective equity funded by a "corporate loan by a social enterprise instead of a personal mortgage".

A not-for-profit rail company – Suggested by Plaid Cymru for when the Arriva Trains franchise ends in 2018.

A Renewable Energy "Glas Cymru" – A public interest corporation investing in locally-owned, community-based energy production or funding larger projects like tidal lagoons and the Severn Barrage. Simon Thomas AM (Plaid, Mid & West Wales) has suggested something similar in a recent short debate in the Senedd in the creation of a "Wealth Fund".

Broadband Mutual – The Dutch town of Nuenen is cited as an example where 95% of the broadband infrastructure is cooperatively owned. It's suggested a scheme similar to this could be rolled out in Wales via Public Bonds (issued presumably by the Development Bank suggested above).

A Savings Super Mutual – This would be a "national umbrella" that would "provide back office functions to Credit Unions" – effectively a "super Credit Union". It's suggested to reduce the risks that this company should start within an existing housing association, then be "spun-out" eventually as an independent company.

A National Trading Bank – This would provide "liquidity, treasury and payment services to local authorities" who currently "receive low rates of return from London-based funds that don't invest in Wales".

A Welsh Wholesale Social Bank – Communities First funding and the money from dormant accounts would be transferred here. It's role would be to "pool capital for social purposes" including a "right-to-buy" for community assets. This is similar to the Big Society Bank mentioned earlier.

The report is grand in it's scale and ambition, saying that a "social square mile" in Cardiff could "steal a march from other financial centres". This "Welsh niche" would also involve hosting a social investment market and a "social stock market" which would trade social impact bonds and other "ethical investments".

The Smart State Strategy

Social enterprise offers opportunities in areas where "neither the market or the public sector offer hope for social innovation and economic renewal". However social enterprise needs "stronger, better and more imaginative nurturing and structure" – a "Smart State Strategy".

The Smart State should:

Create a "networking culture" where all partners; state, private firms and social enterprises collaborate.
Use it's own powers creatively to boost the social enterprise sector.
Mobilise other key players like universities and banks to deploy their own resources.
Deploy public procurement effectively and manage value instead of costs.
Use new financial instruments (i.e social impact bonds) to mix banking finance with social capital.
Fashion new training opportunities and university courses to upskill the third sector.
Create a "social infrastructure" where social enterprises learn from each other.
Wales in particular needs to prove that it's cooperative values are an asset not a "thing of the past".

Conclusion

It's been hard to try and cram a 45 page report into under 3,500 words, so if you're still reading at this point I'm both impressed and gratified. I hope that you now get an idea of the ambition and vision this report – practically ignored by the media – has for the Welsh economy. I hope when you've got the time you'll read it yourself and make your own opinions.

I've always had the impression that social enterprises and cooperatives are only necessary to stave of a business failure. Clearly my thinking is wrong. Although the Welsh Government has a commitment to social enterprise and the "third sector", if we want Wales to achieve anything close to the ambition laid out in the report – a development bank, a "social square mile" and a re-ignition of Wales's "cooperative culture" – then it will not only require the tools but the political will. Independence might be the ultimate way to have all those tools and see this vision though – not having to rely on the UK Government to pass legislation for example, but clearly it's not as simple as that. (You can't blame a nat for making that point can you?)

AWEMA are still trying to defend the indefensible.
Allowing organisations to use "social enterprise" and "good causes" as
a shield to deflect criticism is just asking for trouble.
(Pic : BBC Wales)

In recent months, the Welsh third sector has been rocked by the AWEMA scandal, allegations made by Cllr. Neil McEvoy about Safer Wales and Welsh Women's Aid as well as ongoing concerns about how Welsh housing associations allocate housing. I fear that a small corner of the third sector is in danger of becoming a breeding ground for corruption without the proper skills and without proper oversight.

So I'd include the following "additions":

The proposed "Social Business School" should be the first step in scaling-up the third sector before anything else. It should be academically rigorous and aim for global respect. Within a generation anyone running a third sector organisation in Wales should be expected to have an "MSBA" regardless of that organisations purpose.
There needs to be a "third sector watchdog/third sector FSA" to properly audit social enterprises and charities – independent of government. Hiding behind "good work" cannot be used as an excuse for nepotism, embezzlement, incompetence or corruption. AWEMA for example are currently playing the race card with aplomb.
The third sector should no longer be funded by central government grants - only from the proposed development bank, social market bank or other ethical investments. The links between the state and social enterprise should be broken completely or at very least held at arms-length.

In my personal opinion, transferring public services to a social enterprise or a not-for-profit is still privatisation by definition – just "nicer". I'm not sure what point the authors were trying to make by saying it would be a "bulwark against privatisation" in the cited social care example.

We also cannot ignore traditional enterprise. Profit isn't a dirty word. Although social enterprise might be the best way to reduce Welsh reliance on the public sector - as an employer and as an economic driver – free-market capitalism doesn't look like it's going anywhere soon.

As much as the Welsh Government should support the not-for-profit rail company or the "People's Bank" it needs to support the recruitment company or the fast food franchise. Cooperatives might be a way of making business more palatable to the Welsh people, who have traditionally been (or socially ingrained to be) mistrustful of the capitalist class. However it's going to take patience and time before it replaces the traditional free-market, good or bad, as the major economic model in Wales.

Six Nations Predictions

2012-02-03T18:11:00.001Z

This year's tournament promises to be one of the most open for many years.
(Pic : The Telegraph)

Final Table

France
England
WALES
Ireland
Scotland
Italy

Wales

There have been too many injuries to key players in the build up to the tournament and I think that's going to play a big part in how Wales fare. It'll also be interesting to see how Wales cope with the loss of a "game changer" like Shane Williams. However if the whole "brutalising treatment in Poland" thing unites the team and they take a more disciplined approach, then maybe they can get some due revenge.

With injuries this might be a chance some of the younger players like Ryan Bevington, Scott Williams and Rhys Webb to make an impression while the likes of Toby Faletau, George North and Dan Lydiate (when they're fit) firmly establish themselves after the World Cup (if they haven't already done so). Getting Jamie Roberts and Rhys Priestland back is a big boost but there'll be match fitness concerns no doubt.

Worth a punt but I don't think any of us should expect miracles.

France

I'm going to be boring and predict a French grand slam. Change seems to be a theme in all of the national sides involved but a new coach should bring some stability to France compared to the "eccentric" Marc Lievremont. They play home games against both England and Ireland and that should see them take the title in my opinion.

England

Despite the goings on at the World Cup, England have the makings of a young, very effective team. The antics overshadowed the fact that they only lost one game. I suspect France v England will be the tournament decider with the French coming out just on top once again. It remains a question whether there'll be any instability following coaching and squad changes. They'll probably wobble every now and again but this could be the beginnings of another wave of English dominance in the run to hosting the World Cup in 2015.

Ireland

I can see this being something of a "transition period" for the Irish having lost Brian O'Driscoll. Their squad has a mix of very experienced players and relatively inexperienced players - similar to Wales. I think that the game against Wales on the weekend will decide how this tournament pans out for them (I'll predict a narrow Welsh win). If Ireland can start well and maintain consistancy then a push for second isn't out of the question but I think it'll be between Wales & Ireland for third and fourth.

Scotland

The Scottish club sides have had a good season so far, especially in Europe. If they can maintain the kind of form Edinburgh and Glasgow have shown through into the national team, Scotland can cause an upset or two. Unfortunately I think it's a year or two too early for them to resurrect a reputation in the Six Nations. They are due a break at some point, could it come against England or France?

Italy

They're improving year on year but they are still some way away from being properly competitive and losing Nick Mallet will be something of a blow. It'll be interesting to see how the Pro12 has impacted on the development of Italian players. I'll suspect it'll be positive and they'll probably push one or two of the other nations in the odd game. Wooden spoon - but the days of Italy being the whipping boy in it's truest sense are coming to an end.

Estyn's Annual Report 2010-11

2012-02-01T18:50:00.000Z

Estyn - the Welsh school inspectorate - published it's annual report this week. The report is available at this website. For this summary I focused on "Insights & Issues" and "Sector Report", similar to what I did for the Chief Medical Officer's Report last year.

There have been several issues, in particular literacy, that have made headlines but looking at the report in more detail there are some seeds of hope. I'll leave you to judge the report's findings for yourselves.

General

Nearly all pupils "felt safe" at school, general well being at school is high and pupils generally enjoy learning.
Behaviour is improving in both secondary schools and primary schools.
School staff "actively engage in collaborative efforts" to improve the performance of schools.
Between 85% and 90% of parents surveyed were positive about their child's school. There are high percentages of learners enjoying school or college at all levels.
In schools that promote individualised learning, more able pupils benefit significantly.
Levels of attendance remain disappointing, rates have changed little in the last six years and remain below England.
Few teachers have a detailed plan for improving literacy skills progressively. Teachers don't see potential for cross-curricular opportunities to develop skills.
There are "significant challenges" in improving outcomes for Gypsy & Traveller children.
In a quarter of schools, governors have limited knowledge of the school's performance and rarely "challenge and hold leaders to account".
Headteachers in typically "coasting" schools often present performance data in a way that "hides real issues".

Primary Schools

Performance is "good or better" in 80% of primary schools compared to their last inspection.
23% of primary schools need follow up visits by Estyn, with 5% causing "serious concern". Very few schools have standards that are "excellent".
In 30% of schools, standards of reading and writing "remain a concern", but 80% of schools are making "good progress" in literacy and numeracy in general.
Boys continue to under-perform relative to girls, but this is reversed in a few cases where schools offer targeted support, competition, use of IT, practical activities and male role models.
40% of pupils arrive at secondary school with reading ages below their chronological age, 20% have a reading age below 9yrs 6mths.
Welsh language standards are good however some teachers are not knowledgeable enough or confident enough to teach Welsh as a second language at Key Stage 2 (KS2).
10% of primary schools do not identify and challenge more able pupils, with too few achieving well above expected levels in KS1 or KS2.
Children often end up "repeating" activities at Foundation Phase and make little progress while "looking busy".
Children's writing skills are not as well developed as their reading skills by KS2.
Boys in particular have benefited from learning outdoors in Foundation Phase, children are more willing to attempt new things, persevere longer and shy children are more outgoing.
All children understand the importance of healthy eating and regular exercise.
Schools are improving literacy levels by introducing phonics, encouraging oral skills and providing a wide range of reading material.
8% of schools had a deficit of up to £3million in 2010-11 while 18% had reserves greater than 10% of their delegated budget.

Secondary Schools

Of 31 secondary schools inspected, performance is "good or better" in 65% of them compared to their last inspection. Of these 13% were excellent, 32% were adequate and 3% unsatisfactory.
23% of secondary schools need follow up visits by Estyn.
Nearly all secondary schools test pupils reading age in Year 7.
Most pupils "listen well and are responsive" in lessons, but in 10% of schools they are too brief or superficial.
There is much better linking between subjects at KS3 to develop pupils skills.
A third of schools have "excellent" care, support or guidance services.
Half of schools have shortcomings in accommodation (PE, Science and Sixth Form areas are singled out in particular) but nearly all schools use their buildings well.
Only 2/3 of KS4 (GCSE) pupils gain a recognised qualification in Welsh first or second language and pupils only make "good progress" in Welsh second language in 10% of schools*.
Most pupils feels safe at school however a third of secondary school pupils have concerns about the behaviour of other pupils.
25% of secondary schools had a deficit amounting to £10million, 5% had reserves greater than 10% of their allocated budget.

Special Schools

Standards are excellent or good in 7 of 8 maintained special schools inspected.
Pupils well being was at least good in all of the schools.
Most schools provide a good range of learning experiences through to 14-19 year olds.
Leadership and management are excellent or good in 7 of 8 schools inspected.
Of the two independent special schools inspected one was adequate and the other was unsatisfactory in terms of outcome and leadership.

FE Colleges, Work-based learning and Adult Learning

Standards vary widely in each of the 4 FE colleges inspected.
Learners make good progress in developing oral and written work and are enthusiastic about their experiences.
One in six learners at FE colleges believe they have poor access to good work placements or believe that employers don't support them enough.
FE providers need to do more to encourage pupils into engineering, manufacturing, construction and business administration courses.
There are not enough post-16 courses that meet the needs of Welsh speakers.
All work-based learning providers have programmes for learners from deprived areas.
Adult community learning provides "effective support" for learners aged 50-65 but not so good for 65+

* It's important to note that while Welsh second language is compulsory in English-medium schools to GCSE level, the most popular option is a "short course" that involves just one or two hours contact time a week – similar to religious education, PE and IT. More detailed analysis of that here at Syniadau. I've also posted on the issue of language teaching at GCSE level.

WAG Watch - January 2012

2012-01-31T18:20:00.000Z

I've now added an "Independence Index" page in the top bar which will include my current and future posts relating to nationalism, devolution or Welsh independence categorised by subject matter. It also includes a list of future blogposts I'm yet to write and an expected date for when to expect them.

Building regulations were devolved to the National Assembly on December 31st. Environment Minister John Griffiths (Lab, Newport East) hopes that it will enable the Welsh Government to "deliver a 55% improvement on 2006 [carbon emission reduction] requirements for new homes".
A row over export figures has broken out after the First Minister said in a letter to Prime Minister David Cameron that 50% of Welsh exports were to the European Union. Plaid Cymru MP Jonathan Edwards and Conservative economic commentator Prof. Dylan Jones-Evans have both said that exports to the EU amounted to just 39.9% in the final quarter of 2011 while Wales exported significantly more to North America than the UK average.
Nominations for the next leader of Plaid Cymru opened on January 3^rdand closed on January 26th. Dafydd Elis Thomas, Elin Jones, Simon Thomas and Leanne Wood will be the leadership candidates.
The Archbishop of Cardiff has criticised the Welsh Government's proposed opt-out organ donation law saying that "our bodies are not the an asset of the state." The Church in Wales held a public debate on the issue.
Keith Davies AM (Lab, Llanelli) has claimed that the A&E department at Prince Phillip Hospital in Llanelli is being "bypassed" by ambulances - suggesting patients are being transported to Carmarthen or Swansea. This comes as Hywel Dda NHS trust undertakes a review of hospital services in Carmarthenshire, Pembrokeshire and Ceredigion.
The number of district nurses in the Abertawe Bro Morgannwg Health Board have fallen, while the number of patients has risen according to figures obtained by Peter Black AM (Lib Dem, South Wales West). He said that he was concerned "increasing workloads will take their toll on the health of district nursing staff".
UCAS figures show that applications to Welsh universities fell by 9.3% up until December 2011 compared to a whole UK figure of 6.3%. Other figures also suggest that Wales is struggling to retain graduates with 34.6% of new graduates leaving Wales between 2003 and 2007. However the home student rate in Wales was higher than many regions of England.
The Welsh Government says that the Welsh NHS will remove and replace faulty breast implants of women based on clinical need. The faulty implants were manufactured by a French company and differing government responses to the potential risks, as well as the role of private clinics, had led to confusion.
Four nations; Botswana, Lesotho, Mexico and Liberia, have chosen Wales as a training base for the London 2012 Olympic Games. Minister for Housing, Regeneration and Heritage Huw Lewis (Lab, Merthyr Tydfil & Rhymney) said that the training camps would "provide opportunities to develop sporting, educational and cultural exchanges with countries that come to Wales and provide opportunities for children and local communities to get involved".
The First Minister criticised the UK Government's decision to use tunnels to ease concerns about the environmental impact of a £32bn high speed rail network in England in the Welsh Secretary's constituency of Chesham & Amersham. The First Minister said that the £500m cost of the tunnel amounted to "buying off" Cheryl Gillan, who had threatened to resign from the Cabinet over the issue.
The proposed 30 new Westminster constituencies in Wales have been unveiled by the Boundary Commission for Wales. The reduction by 10 MP's is the result of a UK Government decision to equalise Westminster constituency sizes.
Simon Thomas AM (Plaid, Mid & West Wales) has criticised a 500m "no go zone" around the Millennium Stadium during the 2012 Olympics as a missed opportunity to promote Welsh business. The Welsh Government responded by saying they were tied by Olympic rules which protect corporate sponsors and were a condition to allow Cardiff to host events.
Education Minister Leighton Andrews (Lab, Rhondda) has rejected calls by the National Union of Teachers and Simon Thomas AM to abandon plans to introduce school banding for Welsh primary schools. Conservative education spokeswoman Angela Burns (Con, Carms. West & South Pembs.) said that while she was not opposed to school measurements she was "concerned about the way the categories were weighted." He has also been criticised by the Association of Teachers and Lecturers (ATL) for deciding to stop producing figures showing a funding gap between English and Welsh schools. This is due to there no longer being a consistent comparison between the two sets of figures.
Deputy Minister for Agriculture Alun Davies (Lab, Blaenau Gwent) gave a keynote speech to the National Farmers Union saying that Common Agricultural Policy reform was at the top of his agenda to "meet the needs of farming, of rural communities and Wales as a whole." He also aims to reduce bureaucracy and regulation for the farming industry. He also welcomed the development of a new feed for cows developed at Aberystwyth University that would help produce premium milk all year round. The project will be supported by the Welsh Government via an EU programme.
Business Minister Edwina Hart (Lab, Gower) has held talks with her UK counterparts relating to a debt crisis at Cardiff-based clothing retailer Peacocks. Peacocks failed to find new investors and entered administration on January 18^th with the loss of 249 jobs. Peacocks is one of Wales's largest private companies, employing 10,000 people in the UK.
Unemployment in Wales fell by 1,000 to 8.9% in the three months to November 2011. Unemployment across the UK rose by 118,000 to 8.4%.
There have been calls for Wales to "opt out" of a UK Government proposal for an 80mph speed limit on motorways. Sustainable Transport Cymru says and increase in the speed limit could lead to more accidents and increased carbon emissions.
A Plaid Cymru review into their poor election performance in last year's Assembly election has made 95 recommendations, including a possible English-name of Welsh National Party, a new Academy for campaigning and organising and clearer leadership and accountability. Dr Eurfyl ap Gwilym, who chaired the review, also criticised the performance of some Plaid spokespeople saying they need to "pull their socks up" and need a "sound understanding of their own brief."
A Welsh Government report into support for micro-businesses (that employ under 10 people) has concluded that it's "confusing" and that regulation was "overwhelming". It calls for a single-brand for business support. Edwina Hart welcomed the report and said she intends to "take forward their recommendations".
Minister for Communities & Local Government Carl Sargeant (Lab, Alyn & Deeside) has unveiled a Welsh Government target of a 50% reduction in road deaths in Wales, including a 65% reduction in child deaths. High-risk drivers like young drivers will be targeted in particular and officials will launch consultations with road safety organisations and the police.
Funding for a race body – All Wales Ethnic Minority Association (AWEMA) – has been suspended by the Welsh Government after it's chief executive Naz Malik was accused of nepotism and corruption in running the organisation. Darren Millar AM (Con, Clwyd West), chair of the Assembly's Public Accounts Committee, has said he would welcome a police investigation due to the nature of some of the allegations.
A tourism survey by Visit Wales has found that visitors rate Wales highly, scoring 9/10 in many areas including general satisfaction, friendliness and the natural environment. Edwina Hart welcomed the findings and said that she was pleased that Wales "lived up to the promise."
The First Minister joined school children to celebrate the 90^th year of Urdd Gobaith Cymru at the organisation's centre at Llangrannog, Ceredigion. Special receptions were also held at the Welsh Office and Downing Street by Welsh Secretary Cheryl Gillan and UK Prime Minister David Cameron.
The Assembly's Petitions Committee will allow opponents of energy schemes to put forward their views in a call for evidence after the committee received three separate petitions relating to waste-to-energy plants.
The Assembly's Enterprise & Business Committee will launch a high-level inquiry into Wales's airports and seaports. It comes as Cardiff Airport saw a 10% fall in passenger numbers in 2010. Committee chair Nick Ramsay AM (Con, Monmouth) said that "if Wales is unable to to connect to the world through it's ports and airports it makes our ambitions much more difficult to realise."
School inspectorate Estyn published it's annual report and it's findings suggest that up to 40% of pupils arrive at secondary school with a reading age below their chronological age. It also found that most pupils feel safe at school, teaching standards were generally good but that disadvantaged and more able pupils were both not achieving as well as they could.

Projects announced in January include a joint Wales-EU £30million "Skills Growth Wales" fund to improve skills in Welsh companies until 2015, £1.3million towards a flood prevention scheme in Pontypridd, £2million towards the development of a motorsports park in Blaenau Gwent, approval for a £16million revamp of Cardiff Royal Infirmary, a joint Wales-EU £2million fund for "high growth start-up" companies and an £82million fund to train 2,000 non-medical NHS staff.

Linking north and south Wales by rail

2012-01-29T11:27:00.002Z

Before I'm accused of being a fantasist. This is a "money no object" idea, not a serious proposal. I need to make that crystal clear. And if you think this post is long - just wait until next week!

The Challenge

The economic difference between the lowland east Wales and the highland west Wales is stark. In the latest figures, East Wales (Cardiff & Vale, E Gwent, Powys and NE Wales) had a GVA per capita that was 91.4% of the UK average. In contrast West Wales & the Valleys was just 62.8%. So while there are clear challenges in catching up with the rest of the UK, we have to remember there's a huge chasm within Wales that needs to be bridged to ensure an equal spread of prosperity.

One of the main reasons for this, in my opinion, is because of the sparsity of population in rural Mid Wales and it's lack of connections with the surrounding areas. In a national context, the lack of adequate connections between major centres of the north and north west with the M4 corridor and Deeside reduces social mobility and increases the gap between the wealthy east and the stunted west. Also, yes from a nationalist perspective it does hinder the "unity" of Wales.

The Welsh rail network has often been described as "extractive". After several line closures, what we were left with were "three" networks. A south and south west Wales one, a mid Wales one linking Aberystwyth and Pwllheli to Shewsbury and Birmingham (as well as the Heart of Wales line) and the North Wales network, linked heavily to Manchester. All lines head east and are joined by the Marches Line which acts as a "spine". It wasn't always like this though. There was a time when you could travel by rail between Cardiff and Aberystwyth with no problems and even from Swansea to Wrexham without spending much time in England.

The Current Situation

The Marches Line between Newport and Chester is the de-facto "north south" mainline for Wales. Indeed there are direct services between Cardiff and Holyhead – taking a torturous 4 or 5 hours to complete and not linking sufficiently with the major centre in north Wales – Wrexham. I don't think there's any reason to change it's role, indeed improved services via Wrexham are forthcoming once various improvements are made to track between Wrexham and Chester. The Marches Line should still be the "main" north-south line.

It's central and north west Wales that needs the links to the south. Aberystwyth has no direct rail service to Cardiff, and subsequently neither does Machynlleth, Porthmadog, Pwllheli, Newtown or Welshpool. It's perfectly possible to do this via Shrewsbury but it would likely be a typically torturous 4 hour journey.

This is a huge swathe of Wales "cut off" from it's more prosperous parts and it's seat of government. As said before, in my opinion the lack of major centres in rural parts of Wales is one reason why it's being held back economically. I believe that there are certain towns that could benefit from planned expansion - focusing on retaining young people in particular and ensuring that in many communities Welsh can remain a living language. If we want the jobs, the services and the investment that rural parts of Wales are crying out for, they are going to need improved links with each other and with "East Wales".

A Proposal for North-South Rail

Back in 2008, community organisation Ein Blaenau put forward a proposal for a north-south rail link (more on that at Prof. Dylan Jones Evans). It was fairly ambitious, but the route was torturous travelling north from Cardiff, through the Brecon Beacons, Mid Wales and on to the north Wales coast via Corwen and Denbigh. Although railways like the Clwyd Valley line should be on the list for reopening in the future I actually think there's an "easier" way to link north and south effectively without having to drive reopened lines through the Brecon Beacons or the Clwydian Range.

I'm outlining five separate "big projects" to hopefully fullfil these strategic aims:

1. Improve links between north east Wales, Merseyside and Cardiff.
2. Directly link major settlements in Mid and North West Wales to the M4 corridor.
3. Directly link major settlements in Mid and North West Wales to Wrexham and Merseyside.
4. Improve connections with major English settlements in the Midlands and North West.
5. Improve rail services for existing settlements in eastern Carmarthenshire, Powys and Ceredigion.
6. Allow direct north-east to south-west rail services (Wrexham-Swansea) not only for passengers but as an alternative freight route (i.e. To/from Milford Haven).

All the screen caps are taken from Google Earth. I'm not an economist, an engineer or an accountant so the cost estimates are based largely on existing projects elsewhere.

1. Upgrade to the Welsh Marches Line

Electrification and track speed upgrades.
Aim of getting Wrexham-Cardiff journey times to as close to 2hr15m as possible, with knock-on improvements to Holyhead-Cardiff journey times.
Even better journey times possible with electrification of north Wales coast line.
Improved journey times between Marches towns (i.e Hereford & Shrewsbury) and Cardiff, expanding Cardiff & Newport's economic catchment area.
Electrification would allow improved rolling stock (i.e. Penedlino), reduced travel times, less wear on the track and improved passenger experience.
Possible additional freight or passenger paths.
Electrification in the Gwent area as part of a "south Wales metro" between Abergavenny, Cardiff Central and Newport.
Estimated cost - ~£200million (based on £0.8m per km of double track electrified)

2. Swansea District Line – West Wales Line Gorseinon Link

Gorseinon Link (click to enlarge)

Could be either single or double track, part of the former line between Pontarddulais and Swansea Docks.
Allows direct services to Swansea from Heart of Wales Line without having to turn back at Llanelli, improving journey times.
New station at Gorseinon, might require relocation of Gowerton station to allow a new junction.
Could form part of a wider Swansea/Carmarthenshire metro system including reopening of the Amman Valley line and new stations (i.e. Cockett) pushing Swansea's economic catchment area firmly into eastern Carmarthenshire and southern Powys.
Part of the line has been built on, CPO issues. Would require a segregated crossing over/under the A484. Would probably require resignalling in parts.
Estimated costs - ~£50million

3. Rebuilt Mid Wales Railway

Moat Lane - Llanidloes (click to enlarge)

Llanidloes- Nantgwyn (click to enlarge)

Nantgwyn - Rhayader (click to enlarge)

Rhayader - Newbridge on Wye (click to enlarge)

Newbridge on Wye - Builth Junction (click to enlarge)

Complete reopening of 55km of Mid Wales Railway between Builth Wells and remodelled Moat Lane Junction near Caersws.
Could be a mix of single track and double track passing loops to improve line resilience.
New stations at Llanidloes and Rhayader – could negate need for Rhayader Bypass and other road improvements.
Would allow direct services between Aberystwyth, Pwllheli, Barmouth, Porthmadog and Newtown to Cardiff (via Swansea District Line), Swansea (via Gorseinon Link) and West Wales (via Llanelli).
Could also allow direct Llandudno-South Wales services via link between Blaenau Ffestinog and the Cambrian Coast line near Penrhyndeudraeth (link here to Syniadau article)
Drastically improved services to/from larger settlements south of Builth Wells (Llandovery, Ammanford, Pontarddulais, Llandeilo).
Aim for an Aber-Cardiff journey of 3hrs 20m and Aber-Swansea journey of 2hrs 40m
Should be built with electrification in mind.
Would likely require improvements to Heart of Wales Line south of Builth Wells and Cambrian Coast Line, including reinstating some double track, for optimum travel times.
Direct trains to Cardiff & Swansea shouldn't call at request stops, causing scheduling issues.
Some major engineering work required, might not follow exactly the same route as former Mid Wales Railway.
Serious environmental, CPO and private access issues. Would likely be strongly opposed by some, welcomed by others.
"Nationally and strategically important" but unlikely to have a strong business case.
Seat of government in Powys (Llandrindod Wells) effectively left out, would require good connections at Builth Wells.
Would require a new bypass of Llanidloes, easily costing £40million+
Estimated cost – At the very least ~£400million

4. Rebuilt Gobowen-Welshpool Link

Welshpool - Gobowen link (click to enlarge)

Reopen 25km of line through Oswestry, Pant and Four Crosses.
Could be built as single line with passing loop at Oswestry and built with electification in mind.
A new station at Oswestry (one of the largest towns without a station in the UK), possibly Pant as well.
Might negate need for A483 upgrades.
Could form part of a metro system in north east Wales, Cheshire, Shropshire and Merseyside.
Mainly on the English side of the border, would require cooperation, almost certainly would be entirely funded by Welsh Government as such a link has no strategic value to England.
Would allow direct services between Cambrian Coast Line and Wrexham (as well as Swansea via Heart of Wales and Mid Wales Line)
Aim for journey time Aber-Wrexham of 2hr, comparable to Shrewsbury and a Wrexham-Swansea journey time of as close to 3hrs as possible (via Mid Wales Line).
Estimated cost - ~£60million

5. Reinstated/upgraded Halton Curve

Reinstated Halton Curve (click to enlarge)

The most likely of these projects to actually happen.
Entirely within England, no Welsh influence but strategically important to North Wales.
Would allow direct North-Wales – Liverpool services and possible Cardiff to North West England or Glasgow.
Should have a direct Cardiff-Liverpool Lime Street (or Cardiff-Manchester) service via Marches Line as the "premier" North-South rail service, complimenting Cardiff-Holyhead service.
Estimated Cardiff-Liverpool journey time (with upgraded Marches line) ~3hrs Wrexham-Liverpool ~40m
Estimated cost - £7million (£5m 2004 estimate), more if route is electrified

The Plaid Leadership Candidates

2012-01-26T17:57:00.000Z

Before I'm asked why I didn't pay as close attention to the Welsh Conservative leadership election last year, I'd say that it was because it was debated largely internally within the Tories and predictable. Obviously I'm going to have a keener interest in who runs Plaid than any of the other parties. That doesn't mean that if the other parties were in a similar situation with such a wide field of candidates I wouldn't be covering it in the same detail.

It's also important from a general political standpoint. With constitutional wrangling likely to rumble on through 2012 in the form of Scotland's independence debate and the Silk Commission, Plaid's role is more important than a third-placed party otherwise would be.

I have to reiterate. I'm not a Plaid member. I'm not a member of any political party and for the time being I have no desire to join a party. I'm not presumptuous enough to "endorse" any one particular candidate and I'm not egotistical to think my opinion could persuade people one way or another. The choice is for Plaid's membership alone. Obviously I do have a favourite but I'll give opinion from as neutral a perspective as possible. Over the next few weeks I'll post on what each leader could offer Plaid as a party in terms of vision and policy and what they could do for Welsh nationalism as a whole.

If there are any Plaid members (or anyone else) who want to leave comments endorsing a candidate or discuss the leadership election then go ahead.

The deadline for applications closes in a few hours. Barring any dramatic last minute announcements these are four candidates for the Plaid leadership in alphabetical order by surname:

Dafydd Elis-Thomas

(Pic : National Assembly)

Age : 65
From : Carmarthen, brought up in Ceredigion and Conwy
Alumnus : Bangor (PhD , President)
Constituency : Dwyfor Meirionnydd
Occupation : University lecturer, chair of multiple organisations, company director, life peer
Political Experience: MP for Meirionnydd Nant Conwy 1974-1992, President of Plaid Cymru 1984-1991, Presiding Officer of National Assembly 1999-2011, AM since 1999
Campaign Website

He might have damaged his chances by being lukewarm on Plaid's constitutional goals but Dafydd is still a candidate with gravitas. He's charismatic, recognisable, has green credentials and a wide range of public and private sector experience. Not only that he has a safe first past the post seat in Plaid's heartland. In many respects he's the ideal candidate.

I don't think it's his ambiguous views on independence or monarchism that could cost him a second run at the leadership. He's mentioned his desire for Plaid to "return to government", presumably in a One Wales II. There's a danger that Dafydd could lock Plaid in as a "nationalist Cooperative Party" - forever affiliated and associated with Labour.

That doesn't mean Plaid's membership shouldn't hear him out, he just has to be careful he doesn't create traps for himself or the party.

Elin Jones

(Pic: National Assembly)

Age : 45
From : Lampeter, Ceredigion
Alumnus : Cardiff (BSc Economics), Aberystwyth (MSc Agricultural Economics)
Constituency : Ceredigion
Occupation : Director of Radio Ceredigion and television production company, economic development officer
Political Experience : Town Councillor 1992-1999, AM since 1999, Rural Affairs Minister 2007-2011
Campaign Website

Elin has long been considered the front-runner, but I'm not sure that's as assured as it might have been a few months ago due to the momentum building for Leanne Wood.

Elin has an advantage in being the only candidate with experience in government and by and large doing a good job too. The badger cull might be a black mark, stoking the wrath of animal rights campaigners and "good lifers" in rural Wales, but Elin comes across as someone willing to graft. Her background in economics is also a massive professional advantage.

A hardworking, perhaps a little "mumsy", safe pair of hands but someone who's also down to earth, warm and approachable. Elin is the "Sali Mali" candidate and I mean that as a compliment. If you had a problem she looks like she would listen to you, would actually care and go on and do something about it – not resort to rhetoric. However Elin isn't the best public speaker and probably not that well known outside of the Bay Bubble, Plaid or the farming community. Would Elin be too safe a choice?

Elin's obviously for independence and a republican but she's not as vociferous as other candidates might be (until recently anyway). A nice balance. Elin has a relatively safe first past the post seat and there's no real chance of her being unseated.

Simon Thomas

(Pic: National Assembly)

Age : 48
From : Aberdare, Rhondda Cynon Taf
Alumnus : Aberystwyth (BA Welsh & PgD Librarianship)
Constituency : Mid & West Wales
Occupation: Library curator, local government researcher, rural development manager
Political Experience : Local Councillor, MP for Ceredigion 2000-2005, special adviser to Plaid Cymru in the Assembly, AM since 2011
No campaign website as yet

It's timing that's Simon's problem here. If he had been in the Assembly 4 years earlier he might have been a shoo-in. I once thought it was pretentious that a recently elected AM stands for a leadership, however Simon has qualities that would make him a good leader.

Like Dafydd Elis Thomas he has parliamentary experience and by all accounts stood out in London as a pretty good MP. He's obviously used to "rough and tumble" politics and he has impressed in the Senedd so far, seemingly keen to focus on "bread and butter" issues.

His stance on independence as a gradualist is sensible but he's in danger of treading in too many of Dafydd Elis-Thomas's footsteps. He also seems to have more centrist views on matters Plaid have been to the left of Labour on. Whether that could divide the "Hwntw" socialist-republicans and the "Gog" cultural/green-nationalists or open up a third sect of technocratic "functional nationalists" (probably what I would describe myself as) is an issue. Nobody in Plaid apart from Simon seems keen to target that "centre ground" or the "ordinary voter".

Simon's arguably the closest thing Plaid in the Assembly has to an Alex Salmond type figure if that's what they want. However of all the candidates, Simon is probably the most likely to "do a Nick Bourne" and lose his seat if Plaid did particularly well in FPTP seats.

Leanne Wood

(Pic : National Assembly)

Age: 40
From : Penygraig, Rhondda Cynon Taf
Alumnus : Cardiff (MA Social Work, lecturer)
Constituency : South Wales Central
Occupation : University lecturer, probation officer, Women's Aid support worker
Political Experience : Local councillor 1995-1999, AM since 2003
Campaign Website

Leanne Wood is one of the most consistently impressive and formidable AM's and right this moment some bookies are saying she's the favourite and I'd agree with that. We all know Leanne has become the standard bearer for the southern socialist-republicans. However at a time when Welsh politicians in general need to be reaching out to the Welsh private sector do Plaid want a leader who is, perhaps deep down, hostile to free-market economics?

She's by no means a "wet" on independence or republicanism. She's galvanised Plaid's younger members (and many older socialists). Good. But she wouldn't get away with, for example, boycotting a royal visit as a party leader compared to being a backbencher. I would hate to see Leanne lose her "edge" by becoming a party leader, something she might have to do, even if the likes of Bethan Jenkins are already there to fulfil Leanne's "niche" as a campaigner, rabble-rouser and digger of dirt.

Leanne's supporters might be over-estimating how progressive the Welsh electorate actually is. From anecdotal evidence, the Welsh are left-leaning but small-c conservatives to the point of pig-headedness. That's an incredibly frustrating combination for any politician of any colour but a particular problem for a "radical".

Leanne is saying a lot of the right things and I'm more impressed with her leadership campaign than I was expecting. She would obviously be a choice outside of Plaid's "comfort zone" of a first-language Welsh-speaker, Bro Cymraeg, FPTP candidate – a big, big plus - and she should be safe in her regional list seat.

The Wire and Wales

2012-01-24T18:28:00.002Z

Despite being labeled the hand-wringing Guardianista's favourite TV show, I don't think there's ever been a grittier depiction of post-industrial decay than HBO's The Wire. Created by former journalist David Simon, with assistance from past members of the Baltimore Police Department, what starts out as a bog-standard police procedural ends up becoming a wider examination of a society that's lost it's way.

It's a society that's lost it's sense of purpose, but not it's soul. It's also lost confidence in the systems and institutions that are supposed to bind that society together. Whether it's through corruption, nepotism, sheer incompetence or the seemingly insurmountable crises affecting Baltimore – gang culture, crime, drugs, a burgeoning underclass who can only see a future in the black market, deindustrialisation and the effects of globalisation.

The two seasons with relevance to Wales are the second and fourth. The second season is set in the Port of Baltimore. It deals with the fallout of post-industrialisation and globalisation and the decline of the traditional unionised working class.

Warehouses are turned into swanky apartments, work becomes scarcer due to competition at home and abroad and expensive technology is required to maintain a competitive edge – whether it's with other ports or even to keep politicians and investors onside. It also introduced viewers to one of the shows most tragic and sympathetic characters – docker's union leader Frank Sobotka. His desperation to keep his workplace going when the writing is on the wall as he's being taken for a ride by the powers that be – both official and unofficial - is something I'm sure many people in Wales can relate to. Albeit not having the same outcomes.

In the fourth season – by far the best – the focus is on the school system and the fate of a group of boys, each of whom end up following different paths. Not only is there a lack of discipline and focus in the city's schools, there's also a crushing bureaucracy which focuses on box ticking over learning (sound familiar?). In the absence of real learning and engagement the kids end up making their own curriculum, as one character put it, they're "learning for the street". It also shows that an inspired, motivated teacher can really make a difference and that teaching is more a vocation you're "called to" than just another job you can plonk whoever you like into.

From a Welsh perspective, it's also interesting that the Mayor of Baltimore – a single US city - seemingly wields more political and economic power than our First Minister. Despite possessing an arsenal of powers that, in a few respects, would make Alex Salmond jealous, even the Mayors of Baltimore can't make water go uphill.

When Bunny Colvin, a police commander, tries a radical solution to the War on Drugs – the system, the society, the institutions - crush it despite it largely achieving a positive outcome. It was an autonomous local solution to a local problem, but because the "federal" government leaned on the Baltimore it was abandoned forcefully. In The Wire though nothing is ever as simple as black and white. Even with this solution there were shades of grey. It was a perfect example of "the road to hell being paved with good intentions". For want of comparison, Baltimore is about the same distance from Washington DC as Cardiff is from Swansea. You get the impression they may as well be a thousand miles apart.

Yet there remains hope in parts and the people of Baltimore keep on going somehow. The city keeps on ticking. I think that's what Wales has effectively been doing for the past century. Coasting along, accepting whatever fate, federal governments, Tommy Carcetti's and the forces of a changing global economy throw at us. Too many Clay Davis's, not enough Bunny Colvin's.

What The Wire is, is an eye-opener. It's stimulated debated about the "War on Drugs". It highlighted how political, economic and institutional systems that are broken can have a massive negative impact on people.

This doesn't mean that many of the experiences of the people of Baltimore in The Wire reflect directly on any experience in Wales. Wales doesn't have much in the way of gang culture, crime is low and there's an obvious difference between a single urban setting and a whole nation. Although drugs are certainly prevalent in parts of Wales it's more a case of it being just as much a public health concern as a criminal one. However the economic issues raised are as relevant to Dai Phillips in Merthyr Tydfil as they are Frank Sobotka in Baltimore. The political issues are as relevant to Carwyn Jones as they are Tommy Carcetti . With the coming of elected Police Commissioners, those institutional elements could be as relevant to Alun Michael or Elfyn Llwyd as they are to Ervin Burrell or Bill Rawls.

And of course Wales has it's own Bubbles. It's own Bodie's. It's own Naymond Brice's, Dukie Weems's and Randy Wagstaff's.

Wales needs it's own "Wire". But unlike the HBO version, it doesn't need to open anyones eyes but our own.

We need something so provocative, so real, that we'll all take a good look around at ourselves, our communities, our public institutions and public servants and ask the question "how long are we going to put up with this?"

Science in Welsh schools

2012-01-22T11:31:00.001Z

Wales has been a branch manufacturing outpost for the best part of 40 years. With ever increasing global competition in terms of wages, production costs and skills – Wales needs to adapt faster than ever before and start to think hard about the quality of the products we produce. If we want Wales to attract, create and retain highly-skilled, high-IP potential, high value added jobs in research & development it has to start at the bottom. We need a critical examination of the science and technology curriculum in our schools to ensure Wales can remain competitive. From a nationalist perspective this could also help Wales become ever more self-sustaining economically.

In 2010 the previous Welsh Government announced that a "National Science Academy" would be set up, led by the then Deputy Minister for Skills (and current Health Minister) Lesley Griffiths (Lab, Wrexham). As a scientist (and a day dreaming idealist), I naïvely thought when it was mooted that this would literally be a bricks-and-mortar science academy that would attract the best-of-the-best from within Wales and abroad.

We didn't get that.

What we did get, was a £2million promotion of science subjects in schools.

"Science Academy" is pushing the envelope as a description. A "proper" National Science Academy would've been nice but even I accept that it's unlikely in the face of budget cutbacks.

The good news is that this modest approach does seem to be paying off to a certain extent. The number of separate science GCSE entries in Wales rose in 2010 according to the Western Mail, with the biggest rise in physics. Science of course isn't just confined to the traditional "big three" but can also be expanded to include maths, IT, engineering, (academic) PE and even subjects like geography and economics – so called STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering & Mathematics) subjects.

So what else can be done?

In the critical "middle phase" of Key Stage 3 (years 7-9) science should be as engaging as possible if we want pupils to take science subjects beyond GCSE level. If you lose the pupils here, you lose them for good. At present the science curriculum includes several cross-cutting skills such as use of ICT (Leighton Andrews has been singing the praises of ICT in schools in Twitter recently), numeracy, literacy & communication, as well as Curriculum Cymreig (which adds a Welsh/everyday life element). Science also helps in PSE, presumably sex education in the main. At KS3 the main focus of study is on the "interdependence of organisms", "sustainable Earth" and "how things work".

The science curriculum has become more about rote learning facts and ticking learner progress boxes – making the subjects appear an awful lot harder than they actually are. While knowledge of theory and scientific facts is vital, what's also as important is developing practical skills, objectivity, logic and independent thinkers. Science is as much about that than equations, diagrams and periodic tables and probably the only reason it's a core subject at GCSE level anyway. Those skills are also transferable to many other subjects.

Science should attempt to answer questions. Open-ended individual investigations, a scientific "question of the week" and regular practical sessions could be one way to keep interest levels high. Only when the subject is taught in-depth at later stages should a more rigid science curriculum come into play. For example teachers could spend a week on "how mobile phones work" – indroducing wave physics, digital signals & technology and geosynchronisity. Go easy on the box ticking and tests, focus on the knowledge.

Science should be fun and hands-on. Yes that means it should be slightly "dangerous" and exciting. I'm not convinced that pupils need to be wrapped in cotton wool to protect school staff from frivolous law suits. Science teachers already need nerves of steel and the patience of a saint to let teenagers near gas taps, animal parts and chemicals. It might come down to a simple case of schools lacking the right resources, staff and equipment. It's great to have brand new science blocks springing up all over the place but not so if the store cupboards are empty. Developing practical scientific skills is as important as the theory. When I was in school (not so long ago) I don't believe we did anywhere near enough practical work. If practical skills aren't up to scratch by Key Stage 4/GCSE then it does seriously hinder your progress through A-Levels, university and employment. There's no better way of learning anatomy for example than actually feeling the structures and seeing what you are studying instead of a picture in text book or on a computer screen.

Science should develop independent thinkers. Although there are plenty of black-and-white answers in scientific subjects there are also plenty of grey areas. If you can provide thoroughly researched, credible evidence to back up a theory then it's hard to be dismissed out of hand. Those pupils who think "outside the box" or read around the subject, or introduce cross curricular evidence – however wacky - are as good at science as those who know A Brief History of Time by heart. I mentioned open-ended investigations earlier – an approach taken in Scotland – and in younger year groups I think it would be a great way to develop scientific talent and scientific curiosity. That spark of curiosity today could lead to the products that Welsh companies and universities are IP-protecting and exporting around the world tomorrow.

I don't think there's that much wrong with the underlying principles of science education in Wales. At Key Stage 3 the focus on sustainability and interdependence is very relevant to the modern World and impacts on pupil's everyday lives. But to get kids hooked on science and pursuing science into higher qualifications the subject needs to be the highlight of the timetable. Science shouldn't become a subject defined by political objectives (sustainability). It should be felt. It should be smelt. It should inspire and turn kid's natural curiosity into knowledge and equip them for the economic challenges the rest of the 21^st century will throw at their generation and Wales.

Peacocks in crisis : An opportunity for "new capitalism"

2012-01-19T18:52:00.000Z

Peacocks faces an uncertain future, but could it be the
test bed for the UK Coalition's recent drive for a "new, responsible capitalism"?
(Pic : Sky News)

In one of the biggest blows to the Welsh economy since the collapse of Hyder in 2001, clothing retailer Peacocks entered administration yesterday threatening as many as 10,000 jobs across the UK and some 2,000 of those in Wales – not only the HQ in Cardiff but at major distribution centres at Nantgarw near Pontypridd and other sites in the valleys. There'll be 249 immediate redundancies in Cardiff, though for the moment it's "business as usual" in the stores.

In the latest Top 300, Peacocks is listed as the 6^th biggest company in Wales, with an end year turnover of £527m in 2010 and pre-tax profits of near £40m. All of this, however, is submerged in the company's debts. Estimates for the debt hover around the £600m mark with some £240million+ of that being loans at suicidally high rates of interest. Those debts were acquired as the result of a leveraged buy out when Peacocks delisted from the Stock Exchange in 2006 and was "taken private". Another company "enhanced" by private equity.

I'm clearly not an expert, but the underlying business doesn't seem too shabby at all. The Guardian says Peacocks Group had sales of £720m in 2010 and as mentioned the company is still "profitable". The company even reported a increase in like-for-like sales of 17% over Christmas, bucking the general trend. It's only when the company's debts are taken into account do the underlying cash flow problems become apparent – and the losses start to mount. Royal Bank of Scotland has emerged as the "enemy" in all this, by withdrawing support for a debt restructuring deal (so are we expecting banks to prop up debt-laden businesses now?) However Barclays have said they are still "committed to Peacocks", even RBS are reported in the Western Mail as saying they hope a deal can be done.

Though clearly RBS withdrawing from negotiations was the "last straw" I don't think the banks aren't the "big bad" here. The blame in my opinion should fall on private equity and leveraged buy outs. The UK has come close to losing some of it's biggest names in previous years, in particular football clubs, thanks to this form of finance. Sometimes it's done with the best of intentions like a management buy-out to save a company, other times for what seems like nothing other than vanity. Load a profitable company with debt then walk away while it burns and creditors sift through the wreckage looking for anything of value.

I'd be astonished if Peacocks went into liquidation and I don't think anybody is predicting that. It'll still be a player on the High Street. I imagine a slimmed down Peacocks with fewer stores, fewer workers and many bruised egos is the likely outcome. Bad news, but not catastrophic. Of course it could be saved by another company or another buy out but that would likely means profits (and probably the HQ) exiting the Cardiff and Welsh economies.

We've heard a lot about "responsible capitalism" the last few weeks as well as the benefits of cooperatives (I'll be looking in depth at Prof. Kevin Morgan & Adam Price's "The Collective Entrepreneur - Social Enterprise and the Smart State" over the next few weeks).

Perhaps the "New Peacocks" can emerge as a test bed once stabilised– adopting a John Lewis model – to insure that in the future the company's workers benefit from any profit, not hedge funds, private equity firms or banks. Indeed Dr Jonathan Deacon of Newport Business School has suggested to Radio Wales that this could be one route the company could take.

Exactly how this can be done, while easing the debt burden, would be critical. For a back of a fag packet example - employees could "buy into" the company by purchasing a partnership/shares at a fixed price - for arguments sake £10 per share - and the money raised used to pay off a chunk of a renegotiated debt. After that a ring-fenced percentage of post-tax profits can be distributed back to "partners" as a John Lewis style "Annual Bonus" or a commission based on sales performance at individual stores. The running of the company could be democratised in a similar manner.

Sustainable - what does it actually mean?

2012-01-16T18:21:00.000Z

The Welsh Government is one few in the World that has a legal obligation to pursue "sustainable development" and it underpins all it's policies. This has many benefits, but also many drawbacks.

As Grangetown Jack posted recently, one of the areas successive Welsh Government's can point to considerable progress in is the environment – in particular waste management. The recent push by Environment Minister John Griffiths (Lab, Newport East) to get Wales over the 50% recycled waste mark should be applauded by everyone across the political spectrum. Wales is genuinely leading the way in recycling – credit should be shared between Sue Essex, Carwyn Jones (previous Environment Ministers) but in particular Jane Davidson.

John Griffiths looks as though he's making the right noises too, sticking with an ambitious target of 70% of waste recycled by 2025 and a "zero waste Wales" by 2050. Also a new Sustainable Development Bill and national body are proposed in the next few years.

In Wales "sustainable" is becoming a very funny word. It appears to mean many different things to different people.

"Taking out as much as you put back."

"Self-perpetuation with minimal impact to the environment."

"Good stewardship of the planet."

In recent times it appears "sustainable" has expanded to include proposals and schemes such as -

Diverting waste from landfill to furnaces to produce energy.
Importing wood chips from thousands of miles away to burn here.
Large housing developments in rural villages without jobs or community facilities.
Large housing developments in the south Wales valleys reliant on commuting by car.
No large housing developments in major cities with potential for strong economic growth and a shortage of family housing (tempered by some news today).
Open-cast mining.
New nuclear power stations.
Confusion over policy on wind energy.
A £multi-billion tidal energy scheme partly in a country that's already a net-exporter of energy and in an important wildlife habitat.
Extracting gas from former coal beds.
Extracting gas from former coal beds close to one of the most environmentally sensitive parts of Wales.

Do we want sustainable development to mean responsible stewardship? Or do we want it to become a buzzword put on planning applications to inflate the egos of elected officials and grease "un-green" proposals through?

Carwyn, John - please don't mess it up.

Religion in an independent Wales

2012-01-14T11:52:00.002Z

This started off as an "independence minutiae" post, but obviously there's too much here to justify that tag. It's not really that important, but how a nation handles religion is part of how it projects itself to the rest of the World.

I'm well aware I've picked up extra readers since joining Twitter who might be interested in Welsh independence. Here's some links to other posts I've made on the subject and it's (possible) practical applications:

A summary of The Flotilla Effect
Too small, too poor, too sick, too thick, too Welsh - The five pillars of Welsh Unionism
Media Content Rating
Would Cardiff City et.al be forced into the Welsh Premier League?
A Welsh Time Zone?
Wales in Space
Legal Ages
Republic of Wales – exploring the options

I know some of that subject matter is really dry stuff (I'll be posting "specials" on meatier topics like defence and local government over the next few months). However I believe nationalists have failed in Scotland and certainly in Wales to outline exactly how independence can change the lives of ordinary people for the better and make a Welsh state "work" better than at present. We're very good at ideology, not so good at the practical stuff. I hope I'm "doing my bit" by posting these. Think of them as a personal pre- independence manifesto, wish-list or (very) amateur green paper.

Now on to the main event.

Religion in Wales

Statistics on religion in Wales are pretty scant and date back to the 2001 census so these figures are probably out of date now. We won't have a clearer picture until the first findings of the 2011 census are published.

Religion/Belief	Numbers	Percentage of Population
Christianity	2.08million	71
No religion/Not stated	771,000	27
Islam	22,000	0.7
Hinduism	5,400	0.2
Buddhism	5,400	0.2
Judaism	2,300	0.1
Sikhism	2,000	0.1
Other	6,900	0.3

In 2001, just 10% of the population considered themselves regular church goers. I'm not sure if this figure includes non-Christians (church goer meaning a regular worshipper) but it does present a problem for the Christian churches. The vast majority of people in Wales identify as Christian, but don't practise. Where have they gone?

What also stands out is how small the non-Christian religious population in Wales really is with only Cardiff, Newport and Swansea have anything approaching a sizable non-Christian community. Some of these communities have problems too. Recently there have been concerns that the Welsh Jewish community could disappear within 20 years due to migration to more established English communities.

Bangor Cathedral - In 2001 Wales clearly identified
itself as "Christian" but church attendances slumped.
(Pic Church in Wales)

You could conclude that Wales is a fairly homogeneous non-practising Christian nation. In fact the statistics for Wales are very similar to those of Norway, Denmark and Scotland. England however, stands out in the UK for having larger non-Christian communities and a marginally larger church-going population but that's to be expected, I'm not trying to make a "nat" point there.

When examining individual Christian denominations, there are noticeable differences between the Home Nations. Scotland and Northern Ireland have larger Catholic communities than England and Wales, while Wales has much more plurality, like Baptists– a legacy of Welsh non-conformism.

The Relationship between State and Faiths – A Secular Wales?

There should be separation of church and state in Wales.
Religious and secular charities should have equal status under charity and tax laws.
Soft secularism/constitutional secularism – no banning of "Merry Christmas", holidays would still based around Christian calendar etc.
A new council - an expansion of Inter-faith Wales and including humanist and secular organisations - could be established to act as a "national conscience", debate community issues and resolve differences when they arise.

I'll come out and say it - an independent Wales should be a secular state. What does that actually mean in practice? Technically Wales hasn't had an established church since 1920, so we're there, right?

Sort of. Religious charities have a clear position in UK charity law, while secular charities don't. In an independent Wales, secular and religious charities should enjoy the same rights under the law. There should also be a requirement for charities not to deny aid based on belief or promote views that are unconstitutional or breach civic rights.

What sort of secularism could Wales follow? I'd prefer a "soft" version that acknowledges Wales has a Christian culture but doesn't promote one particular belief. Wales could still have holidays at Christmas and Easter – and call such festivals what they are – because they are a part of what Wales is and what it's citizens are used to, not (officially) for religious significance. There might even be an opportunity to reintroduce or promote older Welsh festivals like Calan Gaeaf, St Dwynwen's Day, Calan Awst as well as traditions that haven't quite died out like the Mari Lwyd (photos of it here at Eye On Wales).

Discourse between different faith groups and secular groups is vital to maintain community cohesion. Inter-Faith Wales and Cytun fulfill this role to a large extent. Can there be a bigger role though? Norway for example has a "state philosopher". Could a broader "Philosophical Senedd", which includes academic ethicists, philosophers and secular groups like the Humanist Association alongside religious leaders, be a possible Welsh version of this? Their role would be to remind politicians and the public alike of issues beyond politics and much bigger than ourselves. All those grey areas like the nation's ethos, ethics at home and abroad and general morality.

All we should really expect of one another - faithful or faithless - is tolerance. A secular "blank slate" in Wales might be the best environment to foster it.

Protecting Religious Freedoms and Freedoms from Religion

People in Wales should have a right to adhere to a faith, change faiths or have no faith.
Religion should be defined as a "matter of conscience". Welsh citizens should have a freedom to practise faith as long as it doesn't infringe on the religious freedom or civic rights of others. This is in line with Article 9 of the European Convention of Human Rights.
Outlaw "aggressive proselytising". Defined as preventing people from otherwise going about their business to convert them to a new faith (i.e door-to-door calling, cold calling). Public preaching and passive proselytising like leafleting should still be allowed.
There shouldn't be any limitations on religious garments, icons or items in public or the workplace unless it makes a person a danger to themselves or others – removing bangles or religious jewellery near machinery etc. Exemptions should still exist where the garment is deemed a fundamental religious necessity (i.e. Sikh turban).

I might be an atheist and a humanist but I'm not militant about it. I've always been fascinated by different belief systems from an anthropological perspective. I accept that faith plays an important part in certain communities and faith (though not necessarily organised religion) can change a person's life for the better. As we probably all know one of the only reasons the Welsh language survived the 19^th and early 20^th centuries was due to the influence of non-conformist chapels.

Elizabeth I is famously quoted as saying she had "no desire to make windows into men's souls" and however anachronistic that sounds and however much she didn't live up to these high ideals I think it's a good place to start. Religion should be an entirely private matter and a matter for it's adherents. The state shouldn't interfere in how faiths organise themselves, how they practise or what they believe – however once those practises cross the line into breaching the principles of how the state organises itself, runs itself or the rights it grants it's citizens – the state should have primacy.

Faith and belief shouldn't be used as an excuse to infringe on another person's or group's rights. I'd call this religious prejudice rather than religious hatred as defined in existing law.

Freedom of speech or inciting religious hatred?
Where would an independent Wales draw the lines?
(Pic : The Independent Blogs)

If a religion opposes abortion, then only it's adherents need to, not everyone else. If a religion believes homosexuality is immoral they can think it or say it but can't act on it - "love the sinner, hate the sin". If a religion believes the world is flat or that evolution doesn't exist, again that's fine – but it'll be confined to the place of worship and won't be allowed anywhere near a geography or science classroom.

Faith Schools and Faith in Schools

Parents should reserve the right to choose to send their children to a faith-based school.
The requirement for a daily religious observance should be abolished in non-faith schools and instead appropriate arrangements made for religious pupils to practise their faith if/when they want to.
Religious Education (RE) should no longer be a compulsory subject in non-faith schools post-14. The RE curriculum should be modified to be more philosophical in scope and explore religion as part of a wider critical examination of metaphysics, culture(s) and society.

A parents choice to send their child to a faith-based school should be defended. I do think one area that needs to be looked at is state-funding of faith-based schools. Faith schools are exclusionary and selective to a certain extent – therefore public spending on faith schools should be tied to secular/whole community benefits. A good example is the new Archbishop McGrath Catholic School in Bridgend which doubles as a sports centre for Brackla. Ideally this is a model all secondary schools – faith-based, private, Welsh-medium and English-medium can follow.

Clearly if a parent is sending a child to a faith-based school, the child should be expected to follow a faith-based curriculum. It shouldn't be expected of secular non-faith schools to do the same. Daily collective "Christian" worship is compulsory in schools and a black mark in inspection reports if the schools don't provide it. Many schools ignore it - at my old secondary school presumably because there simply wasn't the space to do so for 2,000 pupils. It's a requirement that attempts to force a faith or moral outlook on people who are old enough to decide for themselves. For example in Germany, children reach an age of "religious majority" to varying degrees between 10 and 14. Currently in Wales only sixth-formers can opt out by themselves.

However religious education, as a subject, does have a valuable role in all schools by introducing pupils to different cultures, different ways of looking at the world and different moral outlooks as well as the reasons behind such. If the subject were to take on a more anthropological and philosophical bent then it could play a huge role in helping Welsh children develop their curiosity, tolerance and think more about the big issues objectively. Personally I think that's far better than collective worship.

I don't believe the state or school authorities should stop anyone who wants to practise a faith from doing so and non-faith schools should make arrangements – like a room or hall set aside for the purpose – to enable religious pupils to practise when they want (within reason).

Religious Extremism and Cults

Religious extremism and cults would require a proper legal definition. Such groups should be proscribed as a last resort if they incite religious hatred, treason, terrorism or sedition.

People have different ideas about what constitutes a cult
or a religious extremist. How would an independent Wales
deal with the issue?
(Pic : Blogging Los Angeles)

With a few obvious exceptions, it's a subjective matter for what you or I would define as religious extremist or a cult. Some would only use it to describe certain sects in larger faiths, others might go so far as to include evangelical Christian denominations in it. This isn't a particularly easy subject to tackle as the definitions of an extremist or a cult can blur the lines between orthodox adherence and full on religious terrorism.

If the state were to define an "extremist" or a "cult" it should be based on practises - not ideology or belief. Such definitions should protect the religious freedoms of well-meaning "new religious movements" and emerging denominations.

I'm not claiming to be a legal expert but my own definitions of both would be:

Extremist – A group would have knowingly committed, planned or be planning to commit acts in Wales or friendly nations that were treasonous, seditious, unconstitutional, infringed the fundamental rights of others or incite religious hatred.

Cult – A group's practises would have to make it difficult or impossible for members to leave without retribution, require extraordinary donations of money, labour or property and otherwise manipulate or control it's members with the potential for harm.

Plenty to ponder there I'm sure.

Llynfi biomass plant "recommended for approval"

2012-01-11T15:45:00.002Z

A new biomass power plant off the A4063 near Coytrahen (between Tondu and Maesteg for the unfamiliar) has been recommended for approval by Bridgend councillors – subject to a Section 106 agreement. A link to the monthly planning report is here.

The reason planning officials gave to recommend approval is because the plant "complies with Welsh Government aims in delivering sustainable development and reducing carbon emissions" and will "make a significant contribution to the provision of sustainable energy generated within Bridgend County Borough."

The 25MW plant would use imported woodchips (from Latvia or North America apparently) and is estimated would power more than 50,000 homes. The plans are highly controversial in the local community and have met fierce resistance, illustrated by the number of objections listed in the monthly report - including written objection from Bethan Jenkins AM (Plaid, South Wales West).

It's estimated around 20 jobs would be permanently created at the plant (not including construction jobs).

Although I'm not a fan of "nimbyism" I don't think anybody would want a power station built near them. Personally I've been on the fence about this proposal. We need more sustainable forms of energy in the coming decades but the fact that the woodchips will be imported, transported by road (until a rail head is built) and – ultimately it's just burning wood - doesn't make this some ultra-green "sustainable" project.

Network Rail believe a rail upgrade is possible before the plant becomes operational so that's a bit of good news I suppose. Until then woodchips will arrive at Newport Docks and be transported by road.

The Environment Agency will still have to issue a permit, but the appraisal says that the carbon footprint of the new plant (between 0.091kg KWh- 0.11kg KWh) will be significantly less than UK standards set by DEFRA (0.54 kWh).

The Section 106 agreement requires the developers contribute to improvements to the A4063, restrict output capacity to 50% of maximum until a rail head is built and only use a Class 66 locomotive (which is quieter).

There are also 36 other conditions.

Bridgend Council's planning committee is scheduled to meet tomorrow (Jan 12th).

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

UPDATE : 19/01/2012

According to the Glamorgan Gazette the application was approved by Bridgend Councillors, but there was a "fierce debate" and strong opposition from Cllr. Mel Winter (Ind. Aberkenfig) and Cllr. Bob Burns (Ind. Oldcastle) in particular.

Calling Salmond's bluff or unionist browbeating?

2012-01-10T18:15:00.001Z

The UK Cabinet met yesterday and the at-some-point-but-we-don't-know-yet referendum (Owen : Alex Salmond has just announced it'll be held in autumn 2014, which I imagine was most people's guess) on Scottish independence was high on the agenda. There are several lines from my last post "Saving the Union – impossible without unity?" that might be relevant and reinforce my own view that creating a New Union – one based on sovereignty at a lower level than Westminster, united by popular consent and a culture shift in unionist thinking - is going to be an uphill struggle for a whole host of reasons.

"There's browbeating of the Celtic Fringe that sounds like the threats a fat, bald, middle-age husband would make to a divorcing wife. "

David Cameron - ".........it is unfair on the Scottish people themselves (Won't someone pleeeease think of the children?). It would be desperately sad if Scotland chose to leave the United Kingdom (Go on, see if I care!).........Let's not drift apart........I think he (Alex Salmond) knows the Scottish people at heart do not want a full separation........(Let's give it one last try.)"

DC – "If Alex Salmond wants a referendum on independence, why do we wait until 2014? (You don't tell me what to do! You're not my mother!)"

Danny Alexander - "The idea that we should decide the fate of the UK on the basis of the date of a medieval battle....."

June 24^th is also the anniversary of the English destroying a French fleet at the Battle of Sluys, the start of the Great Siege of Gibraltar, a successful British-Native American victory at the Battle of Beaver Dams in the War of 1812, the preliminary bombardment that starts the Battle of the Somme, the start of the Berlin Blockade and the granting of self-government to Zanzibar by Britain.

Every day is the anniversary of something, Danny.

"There's also those who want to "play the ostrich". It's 'all a diversion from the important issues of the day'. "

DC - "The uncertainty about this issue is damaging to Scotland and Scotland's economy. "

Danny Alexander - "....when we are in the middle of a financial crisis and youth unemployment of one in four would be laughable if it wasn't so serious."

........damage and crisis of partially your own making guys. Who holds the economic levers again?

"All we're hinted at getting is a typical Westminster fudge that patches over problems until said patches wear out..........A British Constitutional Convention – bound to be a needed - could rumble on for years. It would almost certainly open up the whole EU in-or-out debate at some point."

DC - "Then we need a proper debate where people can put forward their views......... so let's clear up the legal situation and then have a debate about how we bring this to a conclusion."

"Let's have a debate" – New Labour's favourite line. Not very original Dave.

There's been an inevitable backlash from the SNP who see Westminster as "dictating" to the Scottish Government and Scottish Parliament. That's a charge David Cameron resolutely denies and he goes further by acknowledging that it'll be the people of Scotland who decide it's future.

The Scottish Parliament has no competence on the constitution. The "Union between Scotland and England" is a specifically reserved matter to Westminster in the Scotland Act 1998. As I post this Scottish Secretary Michael Moore has said that any referendum would require Westminster's authority.

However, as usual, there are potential ways around. All referenda are consultative – so no referendum is ever legally binding. Also due to parliamentary sovereignty, any action approved via referendum can be repealed (though that's political suicide). The Scottish Parliament does, as far as I know, have the power to carry out consultative referenda. Whether it has the authority to do so on a "reserved matter", without Westminster's say so, is the issue. I don't think David Cameron is suggesting the Scottish Parliament can't press ahead with a referendum, he just wants it done on Westminster's terms to try and regain some control over proceedings.

Most independence referenda usually authorise a negotiation between governments on a settlement that would lead to independence – if there's a yes vote - followed by a confirmatory referendum after those negotiations are completed. So in most cases it's consultative anyway – never a straight case of in-or-out. What's more interesting is if Westminster tries to block, or prevent, the Scottish Government putting a "devo-max" option on the referendum ballot. In my opinion that really would be interfering in Scottish affairs but there's always the threat that a multi-option referendum would confuse the electorate.

I don't think there's any chance of Westminster blocking or changing a consultative referendum on independence or nullify any yes vote for "legal reasons" - the fall out from such a move could have the opposite effect unionists want. What should worry unionists more in this instance is that a key part of an Act of Parliament (that the constitution and union between Scotland and England are reserved matters) in practice isn't worth the paper it's written on. As a result parliamentary sovereignty and the supreme authority of the UK Government, both cherished by unionists, is undermined just by the Scottish Government considering a referendum, let alone eventually having one.

David Cameron is well within his rights to press the issue but there's not much the UK Government can do in this situation without coming across as arrogant, condescending bullys. Perhaps the SNP will cave in and hold a referendum as early as mid-2013, but perhaps they won't.

I return to another line from my last post.

"It might irk conservatives but some of those cherished traditions might need to go out the window to ensure a New Union happens – in particular Westminster's primacy."

Dave, give it up butt. Stop expecting the worst.

If you love someone, let them go.

Saving the Union - impossible without unity?

2012-01-08T13:42:00.003Z

Carwyn's new relationship with the UK

Back in November the First Minister gave the Welsh Politics Annual Lecture at Aberytwyth University on devolution (more on this at Borthlas, Welsh Ramblings and Click on Wales). In his speech he said that should the Scottish people vote for independence, then Wales's relationship with the rest of the UK would need to be reformed or reworked.

Carwyn Jones outlined three "tests" that he believes are key considerations to warrant the devolution of further powers:

1. That the new powers are potentially beneficial to the Welsh public

New powers are neither beneficial or unbeneficial to the Welsh public. It's how they are used that determines that so a matter for individual party policy and subsequent application. The same can be said of a whole raft of constitutional arrangements including independence.

2. That the new powers can be accommodated in the existing Welsh Government structures

Carwyn has a point - but this could automatically rule out new powers that could be beneficial to the Welsh public - like policing - because there's no Welsh "Department of Justice" or legal jurisdiction (yet). It's a bit of a cop-out (excuse the pun).

3. The impact of new powers on the wider UK is limited

Existing devolved powers and policies that are "beneficial" to the Welsh public might not always be beneficial to the rest of the UK or vice versa – free prescriptions, single use bag charges or differing tuition fee policies for example. It also means that Carwyn could technically be ruling out powers over areas like energy, water resources and even the railways (contradicted in part by Network Rail's "devolution" to Wales in the last few months) because of cross-border impacts.

Saving the Union from itself

Nation states made of nations (as opposed to non-national federal units) vary wildly in their longevity - Austria-Hungary, the various pan-Scandanavian unions, Yugoslavia, the USSR, the United Arab Republic, Spain, Belgium......etc.

The constitutional flux the UK is currently in could be part of a natural "untying" phase peculiar to these nations-of-nations that can lead to various places including federalism, more formal centralisation (as in France or the UK historically) or independence. What we now call the UK is radically different from what it was 20 years ago, let alone at the turn of the century. A UK existing at the end of the decade isn't guaranteed - neither is a break up - but in all likelihood the UK is going to be as different in 2030 compared to the present as it was in 1990. Hardline unionists are going to have to accept that.

I do believe unionists are unnecessarily pessimistic and dour, both in terms of how they see the referendum in Scotland going and the arguments they currently present for Scotland to remain in the Union. A positive case for union, accompanied by significant changes to the relationship between the Home Nations (including a proper answer to the England Question) can win in Scotland. They can save the Union by transforming it into an ever evolving relationship between sovereign states – a mini-EU on steroids.

Things can't go on as they are. There's browbeating of the "Celtic Fringe" that sounds like the threats a fat, bald middle-age husband would make to a divorcing wife. There's a struggle to define civic "Britishness" due to identity politics - not only in the Celtic Fringe but in England too. Proper "British" institutions seem confined to Auntie Beeb, a distant and haughty Westminster, English benevolence towards sponging Scots and whinging Welsh, the Windsors and an increasingly deified military.

There's also those who want to "play the ostrich". It's "all a diversion from the important issues of the day". Stick your head in the sand if you want, cover your ears going "la la la I'm not listening" but having a well-oiled, properly functioning nation-state certainly helps provide solutions to all those bread and butter issues "ordinary people" concern themselves with. I might be giving them too much credit, but our politicians are smart enough to deal with day to day things alongside the big picture issues.

Throwing "British" into every sentence and Union Flags into every picture with a plodding, middle-of-the-road Elbow soundtrack does not a Union make. The cake, pride of place at the centre of the party - draped in red, white and blue icing - is a lie. It's been hollowed out. What's the point of icing without a delicious cake underneath it?

What a bangin' party! Turn off the Steps Greatest Hits CD, burst the balloons, chuck the sausage rolls in the bin. It's over.

You could blame the chubby, charismatic Scot in the corner with chocolate around his mouth.

You could blame the massive elephant in a St Georges Flag making everyone claustrophobic.

Or you can blame the cooks who took their position for granted, expecting cake to always be under the icing by the grace of God, well away from that cheeky scamp Alex. The cooks can stand around moping and shouting at everyone, steadfastly denying the cake's gone, or they can bake a new one. One the likes of Alex won't try to scoff quite so quickly.

"That'll do" won't do anymore

Wales's foremost federalist - David Melding AM (Con, South Wales Central) - has consistently said that sovereignty over Wales, within the Union, should rest with the people of Wales constitutionally. The Welsh should remain in Union with the Scottish, English and Northern Irish by popular consent, not because of due deference to the tradition of parliamentary sovereignty or because "it's the way it's always been".

In his recent Wales Home article, David Melding says there needs to be a "mega-political big deal". I'd agree that any "New Union" will need to be "uniquely British" due to the political system and practices. However I also think it will have to be rigid to a certain extent – perhaps not allowing organic development down certain avenues - or we'll just return to this conversation again at some point in the future. It might irk conservatives but some of those cherished traditions might need to go out the window to ensure a New Union happens – in particular Westminster's primacy.

There's a stubborn reluctance to properly address England's sheer size and economic clout in the Union, it's constitutional position as well as the status of Cornwall, Greater London and the Crown Dependencies. All we're hinted at getting is a typical Westminster fudge that patches over problems until said patches wear out (English votes for English laws).

Despite all the hard graft David Melding has put into creating a new purpose, vision and underlying justification for a New Union, what he's saying appears to be falling on deaf ears where it matters. I might not agree that the Union, at heart, is really worth saving but I think he's earned the respect of everyone who ponders these grander constitutional issues by putting in the effort in the first place. He's one of the cooks who notices a new cake recipe is needed but sadly, is David Melding the Cassandra of British unionism?

The reason? MP's and Lord's (maybe some devolved politicians too) won't like some of the possible answers to, or fallout from, the following question.

What power should Westminster retain?

There's nothing particularly exciting about constitutional change. With a hollowed out Britishness – and a potential big transfer of sovereignty down to the Home Nations - only a bland, mundane, constitutional, administrative and institutional United Kingdom can really survive. Before unionists get too depressed or say it can't work, or that it would dilute "Britishness", I'd say it works brilliantly in Switzerland.

David says that Conservatives and Labour need to unite to provide an "exciting alternative to Celtic nationalism". That makes the job of unionists, and the creation of a New Union, much harder than it need be. Just look at the difference between Carwyn Jones and David Melding on the issue – a box ticking exercise vs a brand new form of federalism. That's just two people. Ask all 60 AM's the same question and you'll probably get 180 different answers from Dafydd Elis-Thomas alone.

Just declaring something a federation doesn't make that so either. The changes will need to be
tangible. The UK might even have to become a confederation rather than a federation (yes, there is a difference) to properly stem nationalism – a seismic change to the UK's constitution and the relationship between the Home Nations. Unfortunately I don't think that outcome is something many unionists would have the stomach for. Can you picture a scenario whereby Carwyn Jones effectively wields more power than David Cameron within the UK?

That brings us right back to the main question. How does the constitution evolve to keep a strong "core Britain" at Westminster while devolving as much sovereignty as possible to the federal/confederal units to stave off nationalism and secessionism? How do you get the balance right? Where do you draw the lines?

David Melding believes that the welfare state led to the centralisation of the UK and "it's multi-national identity subdued". Logic doesn't necessarily follow that welfare be devolved, partially or wholly, within this New Union. However without considering devolution of the "big time" powers like welfare, wouldn't a unitary state just continue wrapped in name-only federalism? That's just a re-branding exercise (or from a "nat" perspective detoxification) not a grand New Union.

In a 2007 poll by University College London on attitudes to devolution, 59% of respondents said that the Welsh Assembly should make decisions on benefits. The annual St David's Day BBC polls over the last four years suggest that around 60% want the Assembly to have "the most influence over Wales" compared to 25% believing Westminster should. Obviously you can't properly judge public opinion by a small set of polls but the view that Wales should have more sovereignty – but not independence - has some consistency.

Those on the left might oppose devolution of some aspects of welfare – I'd picture Welsh Labour opposing such a move with every fibre of their being. Meanwhile those on the right might resist certain economic or criminal justice powers being devolved. The Lib Dems have long been supporters of federalism, but the likes of Peter Black have argued, not without reason, that even something as basic as teachers' pay and conditions shouldn't be devolved. Nationalists will always find some powers that "need to be devolved" and are unlikely to stop pressing for secession even in a New Union although "post-nationalists" might be satisfied with a federation or confederation.

That's just the politicians. Just wait how hard it'll get when the public are asked.

A British Constitutional Convention – bound to be a requirement - could rumble on for years. It would almost certainly open up the whole EU in-or-out debate at some point. Meanwhile Alex Salmond is checking his watch and looking towards the door.

We nationalists often tie ourselves in knots umming and ahhing over the finer points of independence, including trying to decide what the word actually means. Well now it's the unionists turn. These discussions are an awful lot easier within one party or one movement broadly united around social democractic principles. Where do unionists, from across the political spectrum and not speaking in one voice (ironically), start with this beauty?

Answering the Question

Firstly, I haven't gone all "Dafydd-El" and I still believe that independence is the optimum constitutional settlement for Wales. However if I were to have my own preconditions for a New Union it could be simplified to the outline below.

1. Each of the Home Nations should have the same powers (symmetrical devolution, federalism or confederalism) clearly laid out in a written constitution.

2. Residual reserved powers and budgets directly related to existing devolved areas should be devolved.

For example in health – Abortion, Xenotransplantation, Euthanasia, regulation of health professions.

Peculiar to Wales - the devolution of Network Rail funding in line with Scotland.

3. Reserved powers would be defined as those powers that have to be applied consistently across the whole of the United Kingdom with no scope for variation, using other federal/confederal system around the World as a template.

For example – regulatory bodies, financial regulations, employment law, "federal" voting system, the Supreme Court, weights and measures.

4. The UK should retain powers that have to be applied consistently for the United Kingdom to meet common definitions of a nation state and ensure international obligations are met.

For example – defence, intelligence, immigration & identity, foreign affairs, currency, the constitution, human & civil rights, VAT.

Again what could be included or removed depends entirely on how you would interpret these preconditions. What I've listed isn't set in stone and is just back of a fag packet stuff. It could raise as many questions by itself.

Should, Cornwall and the Crown Dependencies be considered separate devolved nations? If not, why not? How would they fit into the constitution? What would be the constitutional status of Greater London? (Precondition 1)

Would devolving "residual powers" in existing devolved areas leave the Federal/Confederal Parliament too weak to hold the union together? (Precondition 2)

Should there be a return to a pan-UK NHS – how would the theoretical "repatriation" of powers from the Home Nations to the UK be handled without fuelling nationalism? (Precondition 3)

Would devolving drug laws (for example) make it hard for the UK to meet international obligations on things like smuggling? (Precondition 4)

Creating a New Union sounds easy enough, but it most certainly isn't.

More than just a game - missed opportunities for the Welsh economy?

2012-01-05T18:26:00.003Z

Games and gamers have evolved significantly in the last decade.
Time for Wales to plant a flag in the competitive games industry?
(Pic: Digital Trends [Elder Scrolls V: Skyrim])

Video games have come a long way since the arcades of the 1980's. Far from being a pastime for spotty geeks hunched over a bleeping screen in darkened rooms (ahem), it's now a mainstream medium. Last year the computer games market was estimated to be $74billion and in 2008 UK sales amounted to $6billion – one of the largest markets in Europe.

Indeed the games industry is estimated to have become the leading form of entertainment globally sometime between 2005 and 2007. Growth in the industry continues to exceed expectations after a gaming renaissance in the early 2000's and the success of next generation consoles like the Xbox 360. The demographics of games has changed too. Although being seen in the past as a largely male pursuit, 40% of gamers are female as of 2010 and the average age of a gamer was as high as 37 in 2011 according to an American study by the Entertainment Software Association.

This doesn't mean that the gaming industry has "survived" the recession – games sales fell consistently throughout 2011, buoyed only by the release of "blockbusters" like Skyrim, Modern Warfare 3 and Battlefield 3. If you want a comparison with the film industry, one of the largest game companies - Activision - is cited in the New York Times as saying combined box office revenues for 2011 was $9.4billion.

Modern Warfare 3 sold $1billion worth of copies alone in just over a fortnight. Only 10 films have grossed more than that in cinematic history. Gaming is serious business.

Game "franchises" like The Sims or MMORPGS like World of Warcraft can easily sell millions of copies. Groundbreaking games like LA Noire are beginning to blur the boundaries between scripted entertainment and immersive interaction.

Meanwhile major film studios churn out sequel after sequel hoping the fickle public are guaranteed to like them. This is something the game industry is in danger of repeating it has to be said – franchises and series games are vitally important to major game developers. Indeed many smaller game developers have been swallowed by giants like Electronic Arts (EA), Activision and Take-Two Interactive down the years, especially if they get into financial difficulty after "flops". There are also long-established "survivors" like Sega and Nintendo who usually make their own consoles as well as the games.

The UK capital of game design is arguably Dundee, which spawned Grand Theft Auto publishers Rockstar (since decamping to Edinburgh). There are also noticeable hubs in Liverpool, Manchester and.......Guildford. The nature of games design used to mean that a company can set up anywhere. The ever successful Football Manager franchise (formerly Championship Manager) began life in a bedroom. However with increasing complexity of game mechanics and demands from consumers, many new games now require large teams of highly-skilled designers, coders and engineers.

Developing these high-end skills is critical. In Wales this has been damaged by the University of Wales, Newport's decision to axe it's Games Development and Artificial Intelligence degree early last year, although they retain a general Game Design degree. Aside from Newport, four other Welsh universities (Aberystwyth, Swansea Metropolitan, Glyndwr, and Glamorgan) offer some sort of game design degree. Far from being a doss subject or a hobby degree – the figures I listed earlier should underline the importance games are to creative industries at present let alone the future.

Wales can't keep missing out but has a blind spot to software development - in particular gaming - despite being home to big IT companies like Logica in Bridgend and EADS in Newport. There are exceptions to this. Cwmbran has a noticable cluster of software companies like Comtec, Tribold, Isca Networks and CIS Healthcare. The skills and expertise are there to a certain extent.

While there are glimmers of hope with an emerging group of Welsh "indie" game developers, the fact remains that Wales doesn't have much of a games industry. For example it's rather ironic that Mabinogi - a MMPORPG based on the medieval Welsh literature classic Mabinogion – was developed in South Korea. It's since become a hit and spawned a spin-off as well as a sequel currently in development.

The popularity of mobile games like Angry Birds and stripped down Facebook games like FarmVille shows that demand for "casual" on-the-go entertainment shows no signs of slowing down despite the economy. While Wales might have missed the boat when it comes to traditional console and PC games, we are at least playing a role in the development of smartphone apps.

At the University of Glamorgan, a £5million Centre of Excellence in Mobile Applications and Services (CEMAS) was established by the previous Welsh Government and EU Convergence funding to take advantage of the growing use of smart phones. CEMAS aims to help SME's take advantage of phone apps or assist in developing new ones and is a example of productive collaboration between higher education and business. Could CEMAS turn to mobile games too?

While it's all well and good that the Welsh Government and business brains focus on big-box, high-tech manufacturing, they also have to help Wales claim a slice of this ever more lucrative, and foolishly ignored, part of the technology and creative sectors.

I'm not suggesting that cheap Android and iPhone games are a magic bullet. With the news that Wales struggling to retain graduates compared to other Home Nations it's important Wales and Welsh business create and sustain these highly-skilled, highly-relevant and potentially well rewarding jobs.

Well it'll be easier than space wouldn't it?

WAG Watch - December 2011

2012-01-02T16:38:00.000Z

I trust anyone reading this had a nice Christmas and New Year.

As you can see I've given the blog a bit of a revamp, complete with cheesy new banner. Hopefully it's a bit more polished and easier on the eye now. I'm now also on Twitter which should make it easier to keep up to date with my latest posts if you are so inclined.

NHS boards in Wales are facing a £50million shortfall despite warnings from Health Minister Lesley Griffiths (Lab, Wrexham) that there will be no more "bail outs" in future. Conservative Health Spokesman Darren Millar (Con, Clwyd West) said that the Welsh NHS was in a "dire financial crisis". Liberal Democrat leader Kirsty Williams (Lib Dem, Brecon & Radnor) implied that poor performing health boards should use good practice from better performing ones.
The Auditor General has said that the system of grants administered by the Welsh Government – worth some £2billion a year – is "overly complex" and "rarely learns from mistakes". Darren Millar (Con, Clwyd West) said "valuable lessons needed to be learned" and that "grants are not always the best vehicle to deliver support".
Education Minister Leighton Andrews (Lab, Rhondda) has unveiled the Welsh Government's scaled-back "21^st Century Schools" programme of school building and modernisation. The total budget until 2015 will be £1.36billion to be spent on numerous projects throughout Wales – significantly less than the £4billion initially proposed by local authorities.
The Welsh Government's budget for 2012-2013 passed the Assembly on December 6th by 34 votes to 22 after Labour and the Liberal Democrats reached a deal in November, which will see extra spending on deprived pupils and energy efficiency schemes. Further negotiations between Labour and the Lib Dems are due for the possible Barnett consequentials related to the UK Government's Autumn statement which could see an extra £300million come to Wales.
The First Minister accused the UK Government of "financial chicanery" after Scotland received more as a result of the autumn statement compared to Wales. He also criticised the length of time it took to determine the consequentials.
School banding for secondary schools was unveiled by the Welsh Government. Schools were placed into five bands – 1 the best 5 the weakest – based on several statistics and factors, including social factors. Six local authorities in Wales failed to achieve a single secondary school in the top band.
Local Government & Communities Minister Carl Sargeant (Lab, Alyn & Deeside) unveiled the prioritised National Transport Plan. The plan now focuses on improving east-west connectivity and reducing poverty. Opposition politicians have attacked the plan as lacking vision and a regurgitation of previously announced projects.
The First Minister wrote to UK Prime Minister David Cameron to criticise the PM's decision to walk away from a possible accord relating to the ongoing economic problems in the Eurozone. The First Minister also raised concerns that the decision could provide ammunition to the Scottish independence movement and lead to the break up of the United Kingdom. A joint letter from Carwyn Jones and Scottish First Minister Alex Salmond was also sent to the Prime Minister expressing the concerns of both devolved administrations.
Unemployment in Wales rose by 11,000 over the three months to October 2011 to stand at 9.1%. The UK as a whole also saw a large rise of 128,000 to 8.3%.
A new Welsh Seal has been approved by the Queen for use on legislation passed by the Assembly. The Seal was a requirement after the yes vote in the March 2011 referendum which enabled the National Assembly to pass Acts on devolved matters for the first time.
Headline Gross Value Added (GVA) for Wales rose by 3.5% in 2010 compared to 2009 to stand at £45.5billion or £15,145 per capita – the fastest growth of the UK's nations or regions. Despite this GVA per capita in Wales remains the lowest of the UK's nations and regions at 74%, with a big difference between East Wales (91.4%) and West Wales & The Valleys (62.8%).
A poster campaign has been launched by the Welsh Government to prevent attacks on NHS workers by patients. There have been 200 successful prosecutions since April 2010.
Julie Morgan AM (Lab, Cardiff North) has called for compulsory micro-chipping of dogs after a spate of attacks on people in Wales in the last three years.
A row has broken out between the Welsh Government and the Welsh Office after it was revealed that the Welsh Government were seeking to open a full time office in London to provide "flexible accommodation". The Welsh Office have accused the Welsh Government of seeking "separation between Wales and Westminster for the sake of it."
A dispute between the devolved administrations and the UK Government over spending on the 2012 London Olympics has been resolved. An extra £8.9million will be transferred to Wales after changes were made to spending on the Olympics by the previous Labour UK Government but neglected to include a Barnett Formula consequential.
Community Housing Cymru have urged the Welsh Government to spend an additional £122.5million on social housing as a way to boost the economy. They claim it could create up to 2500 jobs and apprenticeships and ease the estimated 91,000 strong waiting list for social housing in Wales.

Projects announced in December include a £64m expansion of the Children's Hospital of Wales in Cardiff, a £40million improvement to rail services between Llanelli and Swansea, station access upgrades and Chirk in Flintshire and Ystrad Mynach in Caerphilly county, a proposed £30million bus rapid transit system in Cardiff, a joint £2million grant to the Cardiff Experimental Cancer Medicine Centre from the Welsh Government and Cancer Research UK and a £5.5million investment in mental health as a consequence of the Mental Health Measure 2010.

See you in 2012!

2011-12-20T17:13:00.000Z

It's been an eventful year for Wales, the UK, Europe and the rest of the World. 2011 has been a groundbreaking year of change for billions of people around the planet for better and for worse.

Next year promises to be just as eventful. There's the Plaid leadership election, the local elections in Wales, Scotland and parts of England (including Boris vs Ken Round 2), the build up to the London 2012 Olympics, Euro 2012 and no doubt the economy is going to dominate the headlines once again at home and abroad. There are also all the things we can't predict.

For those of you interested in my posts on independence or further devolution, in the first few months of 2012 I hope to put forward my views and ideas for Welsh broadcasting, the possible role of religion in an independent Wales, a Welsh postal service, a possible structure and role of a Welsh armed forces and reforms to local government.

For those of you bored by such posts I apologise.

Since starting this blog in March, it's exceeded my expectations enormously and I'd like to thank each and every one of you who've visited and contributed in it's brief existence. In the new year I want to make some changes that will hopefully take things to the next level. Don't expect anything too dramatic though.

Unless something significant happens in the next fortnight or so that warrants a blog I'm knocking off for Christmas. I think we can all do with a bit of a quiet period anyway, even if the Welsh Government are doing their best to make it an eventless 5 years (sorry, couldn't resist).

Nadolig Llawen a Blwyddyn Newydd Dda oddi wrth Owen!

Top 300 and GVA figures - grounds for cautious Welsh optimism?

2011-12-17T12:41:00.000Z

In the boardroom

The Western Mail published it's list of the Top 300 companies in Wales on Wednesday. Although the same faces tend to be in the list year after year it does highlight how strong the private sector in Wales really is. It can always be better of course and the Welsh and UK governments should be working tirelessly to improve our lot.

The top ten is dominated by frozen food retailer Iceland, Wales's largest company, closely followed by Cardiff-based insurer Admiral. Iceland has been subject to takeover rumours recently with ASDA and Morrisons reportedly interested but subsequently pulling out. Whether Iceland's £2.4billion turnover will be extracted from Welsh economic figures as a result remains to be seen.

Iceland remains Wales's largest
company by turnover but has been subject
to takeover rumours. (Pic: My Retail Media)

GE Aircraft Engineering is now comfortably Wales's third £1billion company, while the likes of Celsa Steel, Calsonic Kansei, Dow Corning and Redrow highlight how important manufacturing still is to the Welsh economy and how little Wales relys on high-end financial services (with the exception of Admiral) – for better and for worse.

To break into the top 50 companies, the turnover needs to be pushing £100million per year and to get on the list it needs to be just over £18million. There is clearly a very strong base for growth and "small nation stars" – how can the Welsh Government help these companies take things to the next level? Should similar companies merge to provide resilience and compete on the international markets? Do we need to create more recognisable Welsh "brands" like Admiral, Gocompare and Iceland?

In addition, I've previously blogged on Wales's recent excellent export statistics – no doubt an important driver for growth in our manufacturing sector and reason for Wales to look closer to Europe where exporter nations, especially small adaptable ones, are king.

On the national balance sheet

First the good news. Welsh Gross Value Added (GVA) – the value of all services and goods produced in Wales over the last year – rose by 3.5% to £45.5billion (~$71billion) or £15,145 ($23,475) per capita. This means that Wales is very close to wiping out the economic "losses" incurred in the recession, being only slightly short of the pre-recession GVA (£45.6billion).

If we want to internationalise these figures, based on 2010 IMF figures, Wales's GVA per capita would rank at around 38^th in the World – top table, "first world", but clearly with room for improvement.

This rise was faster than the rest of the UK and joint fastest with the East Midlands. However because of the distorting effect a major financial centre like London has, Welsh GVA remains at 74% of the UK average and actually fell relative to the rest of the UK. More depressingly, there was a huge difference between East Wales (91.4% of the UK average) and West Wales & The Valleys (62.8%).

An environmental paradise
but an economic desert. Does
West Wales's sparsity drag the
Welsh economy back? (Pic:Snowdon.com)

Instead of an east-west split it could be seen as an increasingly rural-urban split in Wales, with the Valleys falling neither in rural or urban. East Wales actually outperforms many parts of the UK outside of London/South East, yet West Wales with it's lack of major urban conglomeration still suffers a negative "rural penalty" through no real fault of it's own. It's with some inevitability that rural areas have lower GVA's than urban ones. One of the main reason's Ireland's economy is stronger than Wales, in spite of it's rural nature, is that Dublin is a major global city and focal point for high-end economic development. It's a really tough problem to solve, but one way out would be to focus development on larger settlements in this area (like Aberystwyth, Carmarthen, Haverfordwest, Bangor) and continually improve transport links with east and south Wales.

On the ground

However good rises in GVA and the turnover of companies is to the national accounts, the impact of the figures above is ultimately meaningless to ordinary people on the front line.

What stands out on the Top 300 list is how many of the bigger companies have gained employees in the current year, the likes of Iceland and Admiral taking on as many as 1,000 new workers each. Further down the list however the picture is far more mixed. The private sector recovery isn't exactly in full swing in our larger and medium sized companies by the looks of it.

Economic inactivity rates in Wales, while remaining 2.2% higher than the UK average at 25.4%, are 0.9% lower than a year earlier and has consistently fallen over several years in spite of the recession. Good news? Certainly, but how long will this last?

The unemployment figures are a different story. After yet another unwelcome rise, unemployment now stands at 9.1% in Wales. However the rate at which unemployment is rising in Wales appears to be slowing, while the rest of the UK is "catching up", in particular Scotland, rising to an average of 8.3%. One possible explanation for the rise in unemployment may be the impact of school leavers in August at GCSE level as well as A-Level school leavers failing to get a place at university (for whatever reason), putting their career and education plans in limbo.

The Assembly's First Bill - Local Government Byelaws

2011-12-15T17:39:00.000Z

The Local Government Byelaws Bill aims to streamline the
process by which byelaws are made in Wales(Pic : Welsh Icons)

Just before the Assembly went into recess, the Welsh Government laid the first bill since the successful March referendum in front of the Senedd. The Local Government Byelaws Bill will "simplify procedures for making and enforcing local bylaws".

Byelaws are pieces of delegated legislation passed by local authorities that can "provide an effective and flexible method of addressing a variety of local problems." But I bet you already knew that, right? A local authority is defined in the Bill as a county borough council (unitary authority), national park authority, the Countryside Council for Wales or town/community council.

In some cases legislation by the Assembly and Westminster has superseded the need for byelaws, however local authorities still have the power to make byelaws in certain areas such as:

Taxis
Parks, recreation grounds, open spaces, promenades
Graveyards, mortuaries, crematoria and burial grounds
Prevention of "nuisances"
Public toilets
Swimming and bathing pools
Walkways and public rights of way
Hairdressers, barbers, acupuncture and tattooists
Conduct in libraries and museums
Car parks

The new bill proposes several changes to the procedures through which byelaws are made:

It removes the requirement of Welsh Minister (Welsh Government) approval for byelaws in certain areas (Schedule 1 Part 1 of the Bill). This list can be amended by the Welsh Ministers by adding or subtracting areas.
It gives local authorities the option to issue fixed penalty notices for certain byelaws (Schedule 1 Part 2) which is "more effective and efficient" than through the Magistrate's Courts.
It allows local authorities to seize or retain property connected with breaches of a byelaw.
Welsh Ministers will retain approval powers for byelaws relating to the environment and child employment and will also be able to revoke "obsolete" byelaws.
Local Authorities will be legally required to go through a consultation process to see if a new byelaw is an appropriate measure and publish an intention to make a new byelaw one month before the byelaw is made.

It's estimated that for byelaws that would no longer require confirmation, it would save the Welsh Government £1250 per byelaw and by avoiding the Magistrate's Court, would save £500-1000. The cost of the consultation process in creating a new byelaw is estimated to be between £2000-3000. There are currently about 4 or 5 byelaws confirmed by the Welsh Ministers each year.

OK, like many things coming out of this current Assembly it's not grand stuff. However this could be seen as - in part - a devolution of powers away from Cardiff Bay and a small reduction in local government bureaucracy.

What do we do with Cardiff Airport?

2011-12-13T19:03:00.001Z

Hat tip to Andrew Davies AM and Click on Wales.

Cardiff Airport is in a hell of a state. Passenger numbers have plummeted over the years from a peak of around 2.1million in 2007 to threatening to fall below the 1 million number this year – the lowest passenger figures for the best part of 15 years. That's a catastrophic turn in fortunes for the airport and something that should concern Welsh politicians.

Niches, needs and propensity to fly

We need to take a look at what types of services Cardiff Airport offers compared to it's main rival Bristol Airport.

Cardiff Airport's passenger figures tend to see upward trends when the economy is doing well seeing big rises from 1998-2001, 2003 and 2006-2007. This reflects the flight offer - "bucket and spade" charter flights to sunshine destinations in Europe, internal flights within the UK and the odd "hub" flight, in particular services to Amsterdam Schiphol and Paris Charles de Gaulle. It's very seasonal and dependant on consumer spending on holidays. Proper business destination flights seem to be few and far between.

At first glance, Bristol Airport offers largely the same type of flight on the whole, but there are several key differences. Bristol Airport has managed to attract key "low cost" carriers such as Easyjet and Ryanair which have fuelled much of the growth in UK air travel the last few years. Many of these low cost services are to major European cities such as Berlin, Madrid and Rome in addition to major cities in eastern Europe. No doubt such links are useful for business and more affluent travellers.

Then there's the airports themselves. Despite ambitions of expansion, Cardiff Airport's terminal is dated compared to the airy and modern Bristol Airport which is due to be further expanded in the future. Consumers now expect a certain level of service at airports and however well meaning Cardiff Airport's recent improvements are, I doubt they will ever offer the same level of service you can get at Bristol without a radical overhaul.

Then there's propensity to fly. When the last UK Government consulted on the future of air travel, its figures showed that Wales has lower propensity to fly (0.6) compared to the UK average (1.3) and a small catchment area confined to south Wales, with minimal passengers from west Wales and the south west of England. 65% of air passenger traffic "leaked" from Wales to the likes of Bristol, Manchester, Birmingham and the London airports. Only the south west of England and north of England leaked more.

The blame game

There are many targets for blame for Cardiff Airport's decline. Firstly there's Welsh Government for "not doing enough" or not getting it's priorities in order, usually targeting the subsidy for the Anglesey-Cardiff air link or not backing an improved road link. It's easy to blame them and in some cases justified but I've always got the impression they are as frustrated as everyone else.

Then there's the airport's owners Abertis. They are accused of using "sky high" fees to rake passengers and airlines. Fees like landing fees, parking fees and even fees for dropping/picking people up. Cardiff Airport's one-week parking fees for example are amongst the most expensive in the UK. Somehow Cardiff Airport is still profitable, so it's unlikely Abertis will just give it up that easily to another company, cooperative or even the Welsh Government.

The overall management and airlines strategy for the airport has also been brought into question. The failure to attract a major low cost airline has been highlighted as a possible blunder, as attracting Easyjet and Ryanair led to dramatic turnaround in performance at Bristol compared to Cardiff. There was hope that a new Welsh-based low cost carrier, "flyforbeans", would be up and running by now however it looks as though that has been postponed indefinitely for perhaps multiple reasons.

In a bit of good news, Cardiff Airport has managed to attract the Catalan low-cost airline Vueling and a service between Cardiff and Barcelona three times a week. Hopefully this could lead to more destinations in the future and close a gaping hole in Cardiff's offer.

Cardiff Airport's strengths and how to play to them

Firstly Cardiff has a longer runway than Bristol and can comfortable accommodate aircraft like the Boeing 747, which regularly use the British Airways maintenance facility at the airport. If long-haul flights can be enticed to Cardiff then it would no doubt be a big boost, enabling travellers in Wales and the west of England to fly further without having to use Heathrow. Perhaps there is a case for a "one airport, two-sites" model for a merged Cardiff-Bristol "Severnside" Airport along these lines.

Contrary to popular belief, in my opinion road access to Cardiff Airport isn't a particular problem and only requires modest improvement. Compared to Bristol driving to Cardiff Airport is a breeze. The rail link via Rhoose is a welcome USP, albeit not an entirely direct service. It might be useful to have better connections with trains from the west of Wales (requiring junction improvements at Bridgend or service upgrades on the Vale of Glamorgan line). An express bus from the centre of Cardiff has often been thought of as a good idea and I agree. However in Labour's recent National Transport Plan, an express bus has now been pushed back to beyond 2015 which to me is completely inexplicable.

There's also an opportunity for the Welsh Government to throw it's backing behind the airport. It's often said their hands are tied by various EU regulations on state support, but that isn't an excuse to not explore alternatives and loopholes. Manchester Airport is co-owned by 10 local authorities via Manchester Airport Group. One of the major loopholes in EU rules on state-aid is that if a government has an interest in an airport then the rules are relaxed and options for support are opened up.

That could bring Carwyn Jones's hope for an air link to China and the Welsh Conservative manifesto commitment of an air link to North America closer to reality. There is proof that this kind of service is sustainable as Zoom's service between Cardiff and Vancouver was by all accounts a roaring success until the airline collapsed. I don't doubt that a service to New York could be just as successful.

I think there is too much emphasis on outgoing passengers than incoming passengers. Helvetic Airlines service between Cardiff and Zurich clearly has demand from the Swiss end, but hardly any from the Welsh end, meaning the flight will now stop over at Bristol for the return journey. We might have to accept that Cardiff Airport is probably more likely to be used by incoming tourists than outgoing business travellers and passengers and adapt accordingly – working with local companies and hotels to provide excursions to castles and golf courses direct from the airport for example.

The ghost of Severnside Airport

I hinted above that a "one airport, two sites" model is a possible basis for a Severnside Airport. However was the "real" Severnside ever a goer or just a pipe dream?

The plans for a multi-billion pound airport in the Bristol Channel on an artificial island near Newport were certainly ambitious and promised as many as 13,000 jobs when first mooted. It would've been one hell of an entrance to Wales and indeed the south west of England. However it was claimed that the only way this airport would come about would be with the closure of the existing Cardiff and Bristol airports.

In the current Newport City Council Local Development Plan, the land for the airport island has been put forward as a candidate site. It would be a big statement of intent for the UK Government to drop plans for a "Boris Island" airport in the Thames estuary and instead build it at Severnside together with the phased closure of both Cardiff and Bristol airports, or even retaining Cardiff airport as a freight-only/maintenance-only airport (due to the longer runway).

An airport to the west of Heathrow might relieve some of the current pressure there, and with an appropriate upgrade to the south wales mainline, be readily accessible by public transport, negating the need for an expensive project at Heathrow.

Unfortunately there are several problems that make the Severnside project nothing more than an idealistic fantasy project. Firstly the obvious environmental concerns, secondly Bristol is unlikely to be satisfied losing "their airport" and thirdly the UK government is unlikely to put a single penny towards such a large, risky project in Wales – where the likelihood of a return is less compared to "Boris Island".

That's the trouble with Wales in the UK. Always the bridesmaid.......

Perfidious Albion and where it leaves Wales

2011-12-11T12:09:00.000Z

Cameron's veto was ballsy but do we really want the UK on the fringes of Europe?

Did Cameron call it right?

Being the only EU member not to sign up to a new accord makes the UK look like a socially awkward accountant, walking like "Rain Man" around Brussels looking in vain for sandwiches with the crusts cut off. Of course this will only be how the rest of Europe sees "us".

Back home the blue-rinse brigade and Colonel Blimps will welcome Cameron back with the finest chutneys, warm beer and thousands of off-key performances of Land of Hope and Glory. "We're an island again! Huzzah!"

Cameron stuck by his word – he refused to sign up to a treaty that would transfer powers to the EU from Westminster. Despite looking over his shoulder at 80+ eurosceptic backbenchers baying for blood, I don't question Cameron's sincerity. I don't think he was ever going to sign up for this. He would probably have been looking at the beginning of the end of his tenure as Prime Minister if he handed over any economic powers to the EU.

If however the UK Government think that the EU (or should that be Sarkozy and Merkel) will let Cameron get away with this unscathed without sour grapes then they'd be wrong. Cameron took the big call and might very well have saved "the city" but he could've caused a lot more problems for the rest of us in the long term.

The EU will never bow down to the wisdom of the United Kingdom, say "you were right all along" drop all pretences of political union and adopt English as a working language, perhaps even put some Old Etonians in high positions in the EU bureaucracy to "sort them out". There won't be tears shed when/if the UK leaves, they won't "regret it", they won't be crying over a photo of David Cameron while half way through a tub of Häagen-Dazs. It'll be "tschüs" and a door slammed quickly in the UK's face - perhaps with relief. Come to think of it this is probably how the respective nations of the UK would react to independence – except the "British" who will be on the third tub of chocolate chip cookie dough wiping their tears with a dusty "Wills & Kate" flag.

The UK might not be leaving the EU party yet. It's nursing a cheap can of beer in the kitchen alone with Sweden, Hungary and the Czechs popping in, smiling and asking where the sausage rolls are before leaving and closing the door behind them – more a courtesy than genuinely backing the "British" view.

Rhodri Morgan summed up in the Western Mail a key issue affecting Wales and it's future relationship with Europe.

"For Wales I always used to start from What’s best for Airbus?, not What’s best for the City?"

Would a quintessentially "European" company like Airbus now think twice about investing in a sidelined UK?

It's unlikely that Friday's events will really have that much on an impact and (to answer my original question) at the most fundamental level David Cameron probably made the right call for the UK. However Rhodri's quote does indirectly illustrate the wider problem - Welsh interests in the EU will never be a priority and happily put at risk to protect whatever the UK Government decides is "more important".

That "more important" bit being London's financial services sector. I'm not naïve enough to think that it doesn't underwrite the rest of the UK but isn't that thinking and policy crippling Wales (and indeed parts of England)? It looked as though the Coalition Government understood that there needed to be a rebalancing of the UK economy but now it seems as though we are locked in to another cycle of dependence on shifting other people's money around.

"Don't worry if we piss off the frogs and krauts that buy your stuff, rubber stamps your farming subsidies and Objective One funding - that lovely dole money will keep pouring out of the city and down the M4. Now shut up, do as your told, and be grateful."

Cameron the British Bulldog. The bulldog might be a fine symbol of "British spirit" but bulldogs are also inbred, live short lives compared to other dogs, suffer painful hip and breathing difficulties and are pretty dumb and aggressive.

I'd rather pick a Welsh spaniel........

Welsh Government's reprioritised National Transport Plan

2011-12-07T17:52:00.001Z

Local Government and Communities Minister Carl Sargeant (Lab, Alyn & Deeside) has unveiled the Welsh Government's reprioritisation of the National Transport Plan (NTP).

Transport has been one of the areas where, in my opinion, successive Welsh Government's can point to some success. We've seen multiple road schemes delivered after long waits, rail lines and stations reopened and a clear commitment to sustainable development.

Unfortunately I think that's coming to an end now.

I realise that transport isn't a "sexy" portfolio for Labour in particular .The fact it's been inexplicably lumped in with Local Government portfolio instead of the economy shows what Labour consider transports role to be – not an economic driver or key plank in infrastructure but as something to be "tweaked" at a "community" level to provide "opportunities".

We could've done far worse than have the capable Carl Sargeant in charge of transport, but having looked at the reprioritisation I can't help but feel let down.

Far from prioritising "key" east-west transport links, it appears as though "tweaking" has won the day. The Welsh Government may point to 40% cuts in capital expenditure but just take a look at the Scottish Government's plans for infrastructure development and weep.

Instead of "standing up for Wales", we're increasingly going to be looking to Westminster as the key driver of infrastructure development. The ridiculous M4 Newport bypass has already been resurrected from the grave for the umpteenth time along with that other zombie the Severn Barrage. I don't think either will happen to be blunt, despite the headlines.

Before I'm accused of bias, I don't think Ieuan Wyn Jones's original NTP was "blow your socks off" stuff either and he didn't have to deal with the capital budget cuts. In Plaid's defence, they offered an alternative model to raise money – something the Scottish Government have taken onboard. Labour have offered nothing but excuses.

It isn't all bad news though.

The commitment to complete A465 duelling by 2020 remains and construction of the next stage is imminent.
New bypasses for Newtown, Caernarfon and Builth Wells are included in the "taken forward" programme.
New stations at Brackla (Bridgend) and Energlyn (Caerphilly) by 2015 plus capacity improvements in the south Wales valley rail network and between Wrexham and Chester.
A commitment to an hourly service between Aberystwyth and Shrewsbury and redoubling of track between Llanelli and Gowerton.

As you can probably see, the reason I'm so disappointed is that many of these things have already been announced. None of it is "new" and I'm not convinced that these schemes are seriously going to boost the economy. I'm more "relieved" that these things have been kept in.

I was expecting Labour to want to stamp their own mark on the NTP and perhaps drop some, if not all, of the "north-south" improvements and deliver at least one of the "big bang" transport schemes Wales is crying out for. Schemes that would really boost the Welsh economy.

In my view these "big bang's" are:

Electrification of the Valley Lines (or a clear commitment/timetable with Westminster cooperation)
Upgrade the A48 around Newport to near-motorway standard (i.e some grade separation of junctions on the SDR) and remodel the existing M4 through Newport
The A4232 Cardiff Periphery Distributor completion (Cardiff Bay-Newport Road)
A494 Queensferry-Ewloe Upgrade

........none of them made the list, although there is some vague reference to provide more "resilience" to the M4 at Newport. Perhaps there's still time for Carwyn, Kirsty or Carl to pull a rabbit out of the hat with the £200-odd million coming courtesy of Gorgeous George's Autumn statement but I'm not holding my breath.

I mean why the hell are we going to have to wait until after 2015 for an express bus to Cardiff Airport for heaven's sake!?

Independence Minutiae : Legal Ages

2011-12-05T18:00:00.001Z

In another look at the practical applications of independence, I'm visiting the current myriad of legal ages for different consumer rights, civil liberties and other privileges. Not exactly a hot issue I know but it poses some interesting questions. Also I have to make it clear that the ability to change some of the ages could come through further devolution or federalism, not necessarily independence.

Some of the questions and issues I hope to raise and address are:

At what ages should these rights and privileges come into effect?
Could an independent Wales change legal ages to improve social and civic opportunities for young adults?
Could an independent Wales use legal ages to promote healthier relationships with "vices"?
Could an independent Wales use legal ages to promote a new relationship between the individual and the state?

Many of my proposals for age changes stem from a personal ideal that the individual is sovereign. It's just part of setting out a vision of what sort of Wales we would want to shape post- (theoretical)independence.

(Click to enlarge)

For a more detailed look at some of my more controversial proposals, read on.

Driving Age (Car, motorcycle, moped)

Current : 17 to apply for provisional licence, no restrictions on driving on private land
Proposal: 16

I prefer some "give and take" here. Cars can be a lifeline in rural parts of Wales, not just something that socially liberates but near essential. Therefore I'd reduce the age of learning to drive one year to 16.

However to allay concerns about immaturity or road safety, some extra conditions could include:

"P-Plates" would be mandatory for a set period after passing the test.
A provisional licence wouldn't be converted to a full licence until either the driver is 18 or they successfully complete a "pass plus" scheme.
There would be a much stricter points tally for provisional licence holders before they have to retake their test.

Age of Criminal Responsibility

Current : 10
Proposed: 11, at the discretion of a judge/magistrate

Leaving primary school is a clear cut off point. A child should have enough education and life experience by then to know the difference between "right" and "wrong". That's the only reason I'm proposing changing it slightly. However the judiciary should have the power to decide for themselves in individual cases if juvenile incapacity is an excuse. Serious crimes (i.e. murder, rape, arson) committed before the age of 11 for example.

Age of Consent

Current : 16 with parental consent
Proposal : 16 unfettered, 14 with a "2 year rule"

Before I'm accused of anything, I would like to see a common sense "2 year rule", sometimes called "Romeo and Juliet clause" or "close in age rule" similar to the one applied in Canada.

If one partner is aged 14 or 15, the other partner can only be a maximum 2 years older, regardless of gender or sexual orientation. Sexual activities with anyone under 14, or breaking this "2 year rule" would still be statutory rape.

This would have to be combined with a massive overhaul in sex education, starting in primary schools. I would hope that Wales can become a little less prudish and teenagers would take more responsibility for their own health knowing all the facts before they are biologically mature enough to act on them.

Laws aren't going to prevent teenagers seeking out new experiences driven by hormones, let's build a society that can set sensible boundaries instead.

Legal Drinking Age

Current: 18, 16/17 for cider or wine with a meal, no alcohol for under-5s unless medically supervised

Proposal : 18 for alcohol by itself, 14 for beer, wine, cider or lager directly accompanied with a cooked meal.

Another controversial proposal. However there's still room for some "give and take".

Under current laws 16 and 17 year olds can buy cider or wine with a meal. I would propose that 14 year olds could drink certain alcoholic drinks as long as it's purchased directly with a full cooked meal.

This wouldn't count takeaways, cold meals like sandwiches or pub snacks as a "cooked meal" and it wouldn't include alcopops, strong beers and ciders or spirits which would still be restricted to over-18's.

For example a typical Wetherspoon's "beer and curry" would be acceptable, because the meal has to be brought over by a member of staff who would be able to see for themselves that there's nothing fishy going on.

The element of control will be with the licensees, who would still be able to refuse service to anyone who looks under 21 who doesn't provide a photo ID showing their age (i.e Vali-date card, driving licence, passport). The spot checks to make sure licensees are complying with the rules would continue.

Hopefully this could lead to a much more grown up relationship with alcohol amongst teenagers - seeing alcohol as an accompaniment to something else, not the whole point of a day/evening out.

Not that this is the most important consideration but it might even give the restaurant and pub trades a much needed leg-up if teenagers are encouraged to drink in safe indoor surroundings without fear of retribution. There can no longer be any excuse for underage drinking in the open and it's a problem that Wales need to tackle, independence or not.

I'm sure such a proposal could cause outrage amongst some parents, but they should ask themselves how would they want their children introduced to alcohol – on a park bench with a flagon of illicitly bought off-licence Diamond White or in a restaurant or pub as a glass of wine to go with steak and chips?

WAG Watch - November 2011

2011-12-01T17:39:00.001Z

Business Minister Edwina Hart (Lab, Gower) confirmed that there will be no public money used to establish a Welsh internet domain name. Two not-for-profit companies; Nominet based in Oxford and Welsh company dotCYM are both seeking to create the new domain name.
Health Minister Lesley Griffiths (Lab, Wrexham) has set our her five-year plan for the Welsh NHS. She also rejected accusations by Plaid Cymru that hospitals were set to be "downgraded", however the new plan does include the centralisation of certain services. She later warned NHS managers at their conference in Cardiff to meet stricter targets without a "margin for error".
The First Minister, after facing criticism from Plaid leader Ieuan Wyn Jones, has promised "substantial" new spending on capital projects, particularly in health. He did however admit that some projects could be "re-examined" in the face of spending cuts. Conservative leader Andrew Davies drew attention to the frustration in the small business community that not enough was being done to help win public sector contracts.
Carbon Monoxide – Be Alarmed, a lobbying organisation, met with Gwyn Price (Lab, Islwyn) to discuss the possibility of amending Welsh building regulations to ensure carbon monoxide detectors are installed in new homes.
The Welsh Government have been asked to justify spending £42million on consultants, IT and marketing in the current financial year. BBC Wales found the figures after the Welsh Government began producing figures for spending over £25,000.
A white paper outlining plans for an opt-out system of organ donation has been published by the Welsh Government and a consultation process, due to end in January 2012 has begun. The plans could affect anyone over 18 who lives and dies in Wales, including those who move to and live in Wales for a certain length of time.
Environment Minister John Griffiths (Lab, Newport East) has announced a new Flood and Coastal Erosion Strategy in the aftermath of a cliff collapse near Rhoose in the Vale of Glamorgan. The new strategy will include a prioritisation of measures at areas most at risk as well as raising awareness of coastal flooding risks.
The First Minister was attacked once again by Plaid leader Ieuan Wyn Jones for "sitting back and allowing the economic crisis to do it's worse" to "blame the Tories". He also said that many of the capital schemes listed by the Welsh Government had been completed or were already underway by the previous Welsh Government. The First Minister hit back by saying that Plaid had written the "shortest suicide note in history" in the May elections and that they didn't offer a "wealth of ideas" to protect the economy.
Leader of the opposition Andrew Davies (Con, South Wales Central) accused the First Minister of being "flippant" for not listening to concerns from nurses who felt overstressed and of whom 60% considered quitting according to a Royal College of Nursing report.
Former transport minister Ieuan Wyn Jones (Plaid, Ynys Mon) has criticised the current £170million Welsh rail franchise, held by Arriva Trains Wales, and has called for it to be radically overhauled when the franchise is up for renewal in 2018. He criticised overcrowding on certain services and the contract that meant Arriva was under no obligation to provide additional services.
Bethan Jenkins AM (Plaid, South Wales West) has called for broadcasting to be devolved to the National Assembly, to "take oversight of S4C from a disinterested Department of Culture, Media & Sport".
Welsh Labour have said they would oppose plans to change the electoral system for the National Assembly off the back of proposed electoral boundary changes for Westminster elections. The First Minister has appealed directly to UK Prime Minister David Cameron to keep the current voting system. Welsh Labour have however been criticised by the Electoral Reform Society for their "preferred change" to 2 candidates elected by first past the post.
The chief constable of South Wales Police, Peter Vaughan, has said he does not back the UK Government's proposal to raise the motorway speed limit to 80mph. He also called for the devolution of policing to the Welsh Assembly.
Network Rail has created a new Welsh division which will bring investment decisions closer to the Welsh Government, where railways are partially devolved. The budget however will still be within the remit of the UK Department for Transport.
Opposition AM's have criticised the Welsh Government's policy on tuition fees, with Angela Burns (Con, Carmarthen West & South Pembs.) claiming that the expected £3.6billion cost of the policy put "Wales's finances at risk". Both Plaid Cymru and the Liberal Democrats also questioned the sustainability of the policy, however Plaid Cymru said they support the proposals in principle.
The First Minister gave a lecture at Aberystwyth University on the future of devolution. He said that in the event of Scottish independence or devo-max, Wales would require additional powers and a "radical reconsideration" of it's relationship with the rest of the UK. He added however that these powers shouldn't be for their own sake and outlines three key conditions which, in his mind, should be key considerations when devolving powers.
The Welsh Government's draft budget and a united opposition motion both failed to pass the Assembly, resulting in a budget deadlock. A deal was agreed between Labour and the Liberal Democrats on November 25th which will include increased spending on poor pupil grants and a £40million capital investment programme on schools, skills and energy efficiency.
Unemployment in Wales rose by 14,000 to stand at 9.3%, matching it's peak during the recession and 1% higher than the UK average.
The Conservatives have accused the Welsh Government of being "wasteful" after "excessive" spending on refurbishing the Cathays Park office complex – around £4million per year. The Welsh Government responded by saying that it's future estate plans would lead to cumulative savings of £18million.
Mick Antoniw AM (Lab, Pontypridd) and Byron Davies AM (Con, South Wales West) have both criticised the Welsh Government and Abertis for the continuing decline in passenger numbers and fortunes at Cardiff Airport. The Welsh Government responded by saying they are looking at alternative ownership models including a partial stake which would enable greater state assistance to be provided.
Local Government and Communities Minister Carl Sargeant (Lab, Alyn & Deeside) has said that Wales is better prepared than ever for potential severe winter weather having based Welsh Government preparations on a "worse case scenario".
People across Wales and the football world have reacted with shock to the sudden death of Welsh national football team manager Gary Speed in an apparent suicide at the age of 42. The First Minister said that it was "devastating news and that our thoughts are with his friends and family at this time."
Environment Minister John Griffiths (Lab, Newport East) has confirmed that three environment bodies in Wales will merge in 2013, despite concerns that the move might impact the economy, particularly the timber/wood industries.
Millions of public sector workers across the UK took part in a one day strike on November 30th due to the failure of the UK Government and trade unions to be able to reach an agreement on public sector pension reforms.

Projects announced in November include the reinstatement of a bus link between Rogerstone railway station and Newport, a £13.5million business park at Cross Hands in Carmarthenshire, a £1.4million investment for Wales Rally GB, a £2.5million improvement scheme to Aberystwyth rail and bus stations, a £55million expansion of the Flying Start pre-school scheme and a £90million Capital Investment Package.

Has Neil McEvoy hit too close to the bone?

2011-11-30T18:19:00.000Z

Plaid Cymru's leader in Cardiff Council has been suspended by the party after posting comments on Twitter and Facebook that implied that certain organisations were "complicit" in child abuse for apparantly helping mothers breach court orders regarding access to children.

It's not as if he hasn't said something along these lines before. It's there in black and white in a Wales Home article back in July 2010. Why has it suddenly taken 18 months for McEvoy's views to make headlines?

Now I wouldn't exactly call myself a fan of Neil McEvoy, he does seem prone to foot-in-mouth incidents. The caustic nature of his remarks and subsequent suspension has overshadowed the big issue here.

On those wider issues, he's right.

The only thing he has to apologise for is being offensive when describing illegal activity. The family court system in EnglandandWales is shambolic and, forgive me before I burn my boxers, discriminatory against men.

There are plenty of fathers out there who are utterly useless, violent and don't deserve children. Just because they don't want anything to do with their kids, it doesn't mean those who do want to play a productive role in bringing up their sons and daughters have to be tarred with the same brush.

Charities and the third sector shouldn't be exempt from criticism just because they do undoubted good work to protect women and children from abuse. If they break the law, they (and other charities) should be held to account. There is no "ends justify the means" defence to denying good fathers access to their children. If it's true and Neil McEvoy can back up his claims (I presume he can or he's going to look very, very silly) then it's illegal and the practice needs to stop.

Just because children might be let down by both parents or one parent, it doesn't mean the judicial system and the voluntary bodies there to protect them have to let them down too. It's quite right that abuse against women and children is stamped out, however men increasingly need champions for our causes as well - especially in health, family law and domestic abuse.

Politicians that are quick to line up and condemn Neil McEvoy's comments would do well to remember that.

Saving the Welsh press

2011-11-29T17:46:00.000Z

(Owen: I have to say my heart isn't in it to write new blogs at the moment, but due to some of the content I have to make it clear that this was written before Sunday's news.)

I've been critical of the Western Mail in the past, but it's still the best source of detailed Welsh political and economic news. It's closure or "downgrade" would be a sad loss to Welsh civic life.

However the print media as a whole is in decline and it's an even worse situation for (so-called) "regional" and local titles. Even the Scottish print press, which Wales has often looked enviously at, has seen significant circulation falls. News is now instant and online. Consumers no longer have the patience to make do with a single source produced once a day and in many cases don't want to pay for it either.

Many may point the finger at blogs, but all bloggers do is provide commentary on what the "old media" report. Blogs are no substitute for quality journalism. I don't believe bloggers are trying to muscle in on that territory or plagiarise journalists work – just provide alternative viewpoints, analysis and ideally provide extra exposure for journalists stories.

In Wales, the situation is typically grim. Wales has always lacked a proper "national" media unlike Scotland, and attempts to create such usually end in failure for a number of reasons. Sometimes commercial, like losing the independent ITV licence or job cuts at Media Wales. Sometimes political and cultural, like a national media that is largely Welsh medium in focus and people simply voting with their wallets.

News on Welsh NHS changes might be important to the Welsh public, but you can't beat a two page spread of Kim Kardashian's arse in the Daily Mail to turn heads. The only way you can get Welsh news high up in the "British" press is either a human tragedy, a story along the lines of "those wacky Welsh and their foreign ways" or something far more banal.

Andrew RT Davies growing a dodgy mullet, Kirsty Williams getting flesh tube earrings or a Labour backbencher grinning through the stages of putrefaction at a really bad Carwyn Jones quip and nobody noticing until the following Tuesday. That sort of thing.

What can we do about it?

Bethan Jenkins (Plaid, South Wales West), who's a member of the Assembly's task and finish group on the future of the Welsh media, suggested on Wales Home a few days ago that one possible "radical" solution would be to take Media Wales into public ownership before handing it over to a not-for-profit journalist co-op.

A not-for-profit/co-op model for Media Wales? Definitely worthy of investigation. However evidence submitted to the group showed that Media Wales was making a tidy profit for Trinity Mirror despite the plunging circulation. A co-op type model is usually wheeled out only when a business is commercially unsustainable or unviable.

Public ownership of a newspaper? No. No. No. No. No. No. No.

I don't want to go off on a tangent but this is a perfect illustration of the Plaid Paradox. A perfectly reasonable solution to a problem overshadowed by a suggestion that sounds "radical" but in reality is lazy or ill thought through. Electable then unelectable at the same time.

Wales might be left-leaning but if a certain tendency within Plaid think that we want to live like The Smurfs they need to loosen the keffiyah, put down the bong and Zillah Eisenstein and actually take a look around.

We like buying pointless crap. We generally like choice. We're some of the worst when it comes to conspicuous consumption. We're fine with publicly owned services but I think most of us will draw the line at a publicly owned newspaper – even if it's temporary.

Surely it's easy to understand why a suggestion that the main newspaper holding the Welsh Government to account should be owned by the Welsh Government isn't going down too well.

At least Bethan Jenkins has stood up and said something about the market failing the Welsh media and prompted some debate. Perhaps good can come out of it after all.

The state can help – but how?

I might not personally believe that the state should be within bargepole distance of the print media, but there are certainly ways the state can help without needing to take over newspapers.

Norway is ranked joint number 1 in the Worldwide Press Freedom Index, yet it operates a form of subsidy for it's press managed by the Norwegian Media Authority. It was introduced in the 1960's after fears the Norwegian press was going through such a decline that freedom of speech and institutional accountability were at risk. Subsidy is given to newspapers that don't have the largest circulation in their respective areas but also for press research and minority languages like Sami.

Technically the Welsh Government already does something similar to this.

Suzy Davies (Con, South Wales West) asked a question to Housing and Heritage Minister Huw Lewis (Lab, Merthyr Tydfil & Rhymney) a few weeks ago about Golwg 360.

Golwg360 is an online Welsh language "newspaper" subsidised indirectly via the Welsh Books Council to the tune of £200,000. It's attracting approximately 1million page visits a year. Golwg 360 is owned by private company Golwg Newydd, it's sister company producing the Golwg magazine.

Some ideas for strengthening the Welsh press

General:

Use the Welsh Books Council as a conduit for government press support. It would be independent of government interference and could have a new remit similar to that of the Norwegian Media Authority.
Use subsidy (via the "beefed up" Welsh Books Council) to increase the plurality of Welsh media online and via mobile devices – including the creation of new English-language and bilingual "online newspapers".
Start a round of "bidding" and grant subsidy to (for arguments sake an initial four) bids with the best case – the criteria can be decided independently by a panel of media experts. These new outlets should be expected to be run on a commercial basis and wean themselves off the subsidy as much as possible.
The Welsh Government can help with publicity but that should be the extent of their involvement. For example giving these new "publications" preferential access to ministers, AM's and news briefings.
Make new media and social media a key part of the curriculum at Cardiff School of Journalism.

Specifically relating to Media Wales and other existing print media:

Encourage a new model of ownership for Media Wales, options on the table should include cooperative and not-for-profit status to ensure Media Wales can survive as a stand-alone business.
Work with Media Wales and Trinity Mirror to massively overhaul and update their online and mobile presence. The Walesonline website is incredibly dated and difficult to navigate for example.
The Western Mail and Wales on Sunday should become a high-quality "broadsheets", perhaps justifying a very high quality – on a par with the Observer or The Times - weekly edition.
Media Wales should consider launching a national free-sheet or national tabloid perhaps based on the South Wales Echo or Daily Post "brands".
At least one of the bigger non-Trinity Mirror owned Welsh publications (i.e. The Western Telegraph, South Wales Evening Post, South Wales Argus) should be encouraged to "go national" – either online or in print form (see general ideas above) to encourage competition and plurality.

Gary Speed 1969-2011

2011-11-27T12:43:00.001Z

I was going to post an "Independence Minutiae" blog today but that can wait due to the, to be frank, utterly devastating and shocking news that Wales football manager and Premier League legend Gary Speed has died.

I'm not going to speculate on how or why.

Utterly shocking. I'm speechless. He was only 42.

=======================================================

UPDATE 29/11/2011

S4C's Sgorio tribute to Gary Speed is now on Clic for the next few weeks. English subtitles are available by clicking the "S" in the player.

Labour and Lib Dems agree budget deal

2011-11-25T17:31:00.002Z

As I predicted last week, Labour and the Lib Dems have broken the deadlock to agree a budget that will now surely pass the Assembly.

The deal includes:

An extra £20million for the "Pupil Deprivation Grant".
A £38.9million economic stimulus package over the next two years to be spent on capital investment in schools, skills, and an increase in funding for the Arbed energy efficiency scheme.
Any consequentials resulting from the UK Government's Autumn Statement will be discussed between the two leaders.

On the surface of it, it looks as though Kirsty Williams has sold herself short. It will only become interesting if we know the scale of any of those possible consequentials from the Chancellor next week. Carwyn Jones and Kirsty Williams really must be hoping for something significant.

If there are substantial sums of money involved, particularly capital investment, then it might be enough to stave off the inevitable backlash on the economy from Plaid Cymru. Ieuan Wyn Jones has an open goal here.

If the Welsh Government think this tinkering really will "ensure jobs and growth can be delivered" then we're in deeper trouble than I thought.

Talbot Green plans submitted and two major Bridgend developments

2011-11-24T18:10:00.001Z

Talbot Green New Town Centre

Artists impression of Talbot Green town centre development (click to enlarge)

The formal outline planning application for this new development near Y Pant Comprehensive, promising up to 2,000 jobs, has been submitted to Rhondda Cynon Taf Council.

The first phase will involve the construction of a new supermarket in 2014 with phase 2 continuing in 2016.

The second phase will include a cinema, multi-story car parks, at least 50 smaller high-street stores, a new department store, hotel, a new Leekes store, a "civic building", landscaped public space and new homes.

If it can be pulled off to it's maximum extent (and I do have my doubts) then it will pose serious competition to Rhondda, Pontypridd, Bridgend and Cowbridge town centres - even large out of town developments like Bridgend Designer Outlet, Merthyr Retail Park and Culverhouse Cross, not to mention the existing centres in and around Talbot Green.

This is a major development, perhaps more significant than anyone has given it credit for.

This should serve as a massive wake up call to Bridgend Council and the owners of the Rhiw Centre and the newly-refurbished Brackla Street Centre. Work on a proper development brief for retail and leisure development in Bridgend town centre should begin as soon as possible.

Bridgend town centre can't afford to be left behind this time.

Parc Afon Ewenni

Parc Afon Ewenni overview (click to enlarge)

A masterplan was shown to Bridgend Council cabinet last week and it also made the front page of the Glamorgan Gazette. More details will inevitably be revealed in the next few months.

It involves development of a "village" of around 650 homes between the A473 and River Ewenny on what is currently the South Wales Police Club, Bridgend Council depot and several light industrial sites.

The developments aim is becoming a "major gateway" to Bridgend from the south, with landmark office development near the Waterton roundabout and a new "community hub" of shops and services alongside an existing gym and play centre. Access would be via new roundabout on the A473 as well as improved foot/cycle links to Bridgend town centre.

The land was included in the draft Local Development Plan as a key site but I'm surprised a proposal has come through so quickly. The area as it is is fairly run down so anything will be an improvement on what's currently there.

I do have concerns, firstly the impact on the busy A473 and A48 by building a new roundabout. Secondly pedestrian access to and from the "village", especially for any schoolchildren living there, whom it's claimed would be in the catchment area of Llangrallo Primary in Coychurch and Pencoed Comprehensive. It wouldn't be a particularly pleasant walk to school, no doubt leading to more car journeys. This "village" looks as though it's going to be "cut off" from the rest of Bridgend by the industrial estates and the A473. These problems can be overcome though.

I hope however that this doesn't become another generic "ribbon/sprawl" development, in part a result of Cardiff Council's stubborn refusal to open up greenfield land for residential development.

Pencoed Technology Business Park

Pencoed Technology Business Park - very Silicon Valley! (click to enlarge)

This is to be build on the large car park to the east of the Sony plant in Pencoed.

It's a generic office development, but in a "green" setting including a lake and "breakout" areas. It would be aimed at light manufacturing and "knowledge economy" companies but on a smaller, more intimate scale. It aims to take advantage of views over the River Ewenny and retain as much of the greenery as possible.

The total new floor space will only be around 17,000sq metres, equivalent to a quarter of the existing Sony plant.

Once again this was a strategic site in the draft LDP, so this proposal isn't much of a surprise.

My concern is that this could lead to an oversupply of office space in south east Wales, especially if other "big schemes" come off, and would divert attention from other key regeneration sites in the county like Brackla Industrial Estate or Bridgend Science Park.

It's undoubtedly a boost to have such a development in Pencoed though, which always seems to be a poor relation in the southern half of the county.

At last! The sensible argument against Team GB

2011-11-22T17:26:00.000Z

At least it's a Welshman that's come out and said it.......

World hurdling champion Dai Greene is quoted on BBC Wales as saying:

"I don't think the football team should be there in the first place. I hope that those big names don't overshadow those people who have trained for four years to be there for that one moment. These guys have four to five weeks off in the summer then become an Olympian. It does seem a little bit out of place.

These guys want to win Premierships, Champions League trophies and World Cup medals. They don't grow up wanting to be an Olympic champion, they want to be the best in football. The crowning glory in football isn't being Olympic champion so I don't think their sport should necessarily be involved - or at least at a professional level."

Thank you Dai.

The "threat" to national teams independent status is the eye-catching reason for opposition to Team GB, but the best reason against it is far simpler.

The Olympics are about "being the best". It's supposed to be the pinnacle for sports that don't have an important or clearly defined World Championship. It's something those pushing Team GB have conveniently forgotten.

Olympic football is a redundant sideshow that players like Gareth Bale and Aaron Ramsey are far too good to play in. It's an under-23 competition that only South American and African countries have ever put any hard effort into in modern Olympics and will be completely overshadowed by the European Championships. I'd be surprised if either Tottenham or Arsenal even release Bale and Ramsey in what will be the late preparation period for the 2012-13 Premier League season.

There are several Olympic sports that the UK has never competed competitively in. Team GB have cobbled together makeshift teams for sports like basketball, handball and of course football because they don't want to "lose face" as hosts.

If I were, for example a German, I'd consider playing against a British handball team on the biggest sporting stage an insult.

I'd also be furious if I were a British athlete who's silver medal has been taken off the back pages because Team GB have drawn with Cameroon Under-23's thanks to a David Beckham assist.

Obviously from my perspective, it would be ideal if there were a Welsh Olympic team. However I don't begrudge Welsh athletes competing under the Union flag in events like athletics or cycling. That's the way they've always done it (Commonwealth games aside) and for them it's the highlight of their career.

Let's not take anything away from them for the sake of saving Seb Coe's blushes.

Back on track - Network Rail's long overdue "devolution" to Wales

2011-11-19T10:56:00.001Z

Network Rail, the company responsible for rail infrastructure in England, Scotland and Wales, has finally created a new all-Wales division. They announced the move many months ago off the back of the Department for Transport's McNulty Report, which suggested "devolution and decentralisation" to improve efficiency. This week the First Minister formally launched their new operation near Cardiff Central station.

Why is this such an important development?

Railways have been partially devolved to the Assembly since 2005. Network Rail decisions, like those relating to station refurbishments or other major railway improvements, were still made on an "EnglandandWales" basis. The Assembly did have some influence over the railways, such as funding the Arriva Trains franchise and providing money to "improve services."

In all honesty, it was a bit of a dogs dinner. The 3rd Assembly's Enterprise & Learning Committee report into future railway infrastructure in Wales found:

Stations like Cardiff Central were not being prioritised in a way that acknowledged their "major role" or passenger numbers.
Network Rail had no idea how much they actually spent on railways in Wales - only estimates.
The UK Government thought it was "unacceptable" to devolve Network Rail to Wales because too many services shared infrastructure and cross-border services. Transport Scotland didn't see this as an issue in their own arrangement.
The majority of witnesses to the inquiry supported further devolution of the railways to the Assembly.
Scotland was able to spend "several hundred million pounds" on rail infrastructure because of it's block grant allocation and rail devolution, Wales "didn't have that luxury".

Now that Network Rail will make decisions in Wales, it gives the Assembly much greater clout in prioritising schemes. It also means that there is, at last, a joined up system for running Welsh railway infrastructure. Hopefully it'll lead to many big improvements in the next few years a lot quicker than they otherwise would have on an "EnglandandWales" basis such as:

Station improvements to Cardiff Central and Queen Street Stations
Electrification of the south Wales main line to Swansea
Possible future electrification of the Valley Lines and north wales mainline
Capacity improvements around Cardiff & Newport
A rail service between Ebbw Vale and Newport
Reopening the Aberdare-Hirwaun line and line from Gaerwen to Llangefni (or Amlwch) to passengers
Redoubling of track between Llanelli and Swansea
More frequent services in west Wales

There is however a big catch. Although the decision making is now devolved, the Network Rail budget isn't, and currently, around 3% of Network Rail funding is spent on the Welsh rail network (which includes a chunk of England's), around 2% lower than the Welsh UK population share. Scotland however does receive it's population share and has used the money to carry out some significant improvements to the Scottish rail network.

Part of that "missing" 2% will be used by the UK Government to fund projects like Crossrail, Reading Station redevelopment and electrifying rail lines to Blackpool (while electification to Swansea is moving at a slow pace).

I believe that this could be because within "EnglandandWales" funding has been dependant on the length on the network/route miles and not on passenger numbers or national/regional population share. With Network Rail devolved, the next piece in the puzzle is to devolve the budget in line with Scotland.

Welsh railways are back on track perhaps, but not going anywhere fast just yet.

Assembly Budget Deadlock - Who will blink first?

2011-11-16T18:26:00.000Z

Carwyn, Andrew, Ieuan and Kirsty -budget negotiations continue with no sign of agreement yet

He might not have a magic pot of money. He might be struggling to pass his government's budget. However Carwyn Jones checked his wallet and £38.9million fell out.

Realistically £38.9million isn't going to go very far and unlikely to satisfy any of the opposition parties unless some extra slack is found from the existing budget, perhaps running up to tens of millions of pounds – if not more than that.

The Conservatives are focusing on health, Plaid Cymru have focused on the economy, while the Liberal Democrats have focused on schools. Three big issues in Welsh politics, and a big headache for Labour. Labour can only realistically choose one and it's going to leave them open to attack by the rejected two that Labour are neglecting "their" areas.

Lets start with the non-starter. I don't see any way that Labour would try (or even be seen to try) and "do a deal" with the Evil Tories©. Andrew Davies took up the mantle of the NHS with some gusto before he became Conservative leader, but even then he didn't make it clear what services he would cut to fund his plans and he flubbed it. It might leave an open goal for him in future Senedd debates but Labour should survive that.

The Conservatives simply aren't trusted with the NHS – their Achilles' Heel in Wales - especially with what's currently happening in England. What's surprised me most is that he hasn't called for a Council Tax freeze in Wales, which is how this "magic" £38.9million came down the M4 in the first place.

Plaid Cymru are targeting Labour's economic plans, arguably the best target politically. Plaid's proposals are probably going to require the most radical rethink of the budget. That's something Jane Hutt might not have time, or permission to do. If there were to be a significant change in capital spending then it might see Labour's manifesto pledges evaporate. I think there are only two things that can happen for Plaid back the budget - a watered down Build for Wales or a coalition once Plaid have elected a new leader. I don't see either happening, however Gareth Hughes's hunch is that Labour can do a deal with Plaid.

The Welsh Government's move to set up two business funds worth a combined £55million could be seen as an attempt to deal with some issues raised by Plaid, perhaps even placate them, even if it's just a short-term fix.

Plaid will have to spell out in detail what they would cut and what they would do budget-wise. If they can do that with some credibility then they'll be on to a winner. If however they just harangue the Welsh Government from the sidelines, then to the sidelines they shall remain. Unfortunately I can only see the latter but perhaps I'm doing them a discourtesy.

My hunch is that the party most likely to reach a deal with Labour are the Liberal Democrats. That £38.9million would go some way to achieving their "pupil premium" manifesto pledge, even if only a small slice of it is used as some sort of pilot scheme. They won't need to go into coalition with Labour, but it might make it more likely. Labour won't want a repeat of this every year until 2016 and a coalition would provide a very convenient opportunity for a cabinet reshuffle.

If Labour did that though, then it might hand a huge advantage to Plaid, who are probably going to come out of this process as "winners" one way or another. Education might very well have been a key issue during the election but with the ongoing depressing economic news it's the economy, which Plaid have visibly pummelled Labour on at late, that's going to be centre stage. Once Labour's centralisation plans for the NHS come into play, then the Tories, many of whom represent rural constituencies likely to be affected by this, will be able to get stuck in too.

Brinkmanship or grown up multi-party democracy with a minority government? You can make your own mind up.

However I'm fairly confident there'll be a budget passed on December 6^th and it's likely to be Kirsty Williams smiling at the end of it.

We've been in this situation before. Dim problem.

Cardiff's illiberal approach to combating alcohol-related crime

2011-11-14T18:19:00.002Z

LOL!..........sorry.......FOR SHAME!
Cardiff's saturation zones policy doesn't extend to transvestites.
(Pic: Maciej Dacowicz via Perthnow.au)

Cardiff Council and South Wales Police (SWP) are taking strong measures to curb alcohol-related crime in and around Cardiff city centre.

Cardiff Council and SWP are using "saturation zones" in certain streets to limit the numbers of alcohol licences permitted. The idea is that if the number of venues selling alcohol is capped, then alcohol-related crime would fall. In the last week or two a businessman planning to bring several derelict buildings into use on St Mary Street as nightclubs (suggesting 200 jobs would be created) has had his application thrown into doubt because it contravened this "saturation zone" policy.

In addition, SWP are pushing for venues in Cardiff city centre to scan the fingerprints and take the photo /scan driving licence of patrons to create a database that could be used to identify troublemakers. SWP are also are pushing for participation in the scheme to eventually become a mandatory licencing requirement.

Saturation Zones

In practically every single town or city in the UK there will be a street (or streets) which become notorious for fights or assorted rowdiness. "Saturation" of takeaways and pubs/clubs right next door to each other is undoubtedly a factor in alcohol-related disorder, I don't dispute that.

According to the Home Office crime maps these are the numbers of recorded crimes on each of Cardiff city centre's main "drinking" streets in September 2011.

St Mary Street -60
Caroline Street -56
Greyfriars Road/Crockherbtown -92
Mill Lane -41

So an average of around 62 recorded crimes a month per street. Many won't be alcohol-related (like thefts) and the bulk of which I'm guessing will be on Friday and Saturday nights, peaking during "events" in the city centre. I'll leave you to make your own minds up if these are manageable figures for the police or not.

I don't believe it's good planning policy to prejudice applications based on their use or set quotas for streets. All that will happen in the trouble will be spread over a wider area, especially if particular venues are problem ones and simply relocate to another part of the city.

I'm sure we've all seen the notorious photos by Polish photographer Maciej Dakowicz of Cardiff city centre at night. However embarrassing it is for the city, or Cardiff Council's vain attempt to create some sort of "highbrow/cosmopolitan" night economy, the hard fact is that the Welsh, English and Scottish can't handle their drink. Swapping Walkabout for few upmarket wine bars won't change the scenes of drunken debauchery which we ~~have a sense of humour about~~ find horrifying.

Fingerprinting/ID

I'm staggered that the Liberal Democrats or Plaid Cymru (the ruling Cardiff Council coalition) would genuinely support this considering both parties previous opposition to ID Cards and the DNA register. In fairness it's a Lib Dem Councillor (Ed Bridges) who's raised the issue. Considering he's also chair of the licensing committee, it seems unlikely that SWP will get their way.

I don't believe that this is a massive erosion of civil liberties, but I do think it's a presumption of guilt towards anyone who goes into a venue in Cardiff. Saturation Zones or fingerprinting wouldn't prevent crimes like the brutal attack on a 19-year old in Cardiff the other week.

I don't understand why licensees would willingly sign up to this.

There's a saying "don't go into a pub with a flat roof". Another saying that could join it is "don't go into a nightclub with a fingerprint scanner".

It's a big neon sign saying "Criminals R Us" or more morbidly "poor fire safety".

Pubs and clubs in Bridgend and Porthcawl have a system where they are linked by walkie talkie (Nite Net) and can notify each other (and the police) instantly of any potential troublemakers/trouble making. It also means that troublemakers can be barred across town centres with every venue knowing who they are. Monthly meetings are held by participating clubs and pubs with the police to coordinate the scheme and raise issues.

Although there would clearly be logistical challenges doing this in Cardiff (or Swansea's Wind Street), is this just too "low tech" and too "common sense" for Cardiff Council and SWP?

The Welsh Government's white paper on organ donation

2011-11-12T12:36:00.002Z

Wales currently has high rates of organ donation, but 51
people still died waiting for a transplant in the last year. (Pic : The Guardian)

It's been a rough week for them so I think it's time I cut the Welsh Government some slack and focus on one of their boldest (and potentially controversial) moves, probably in the history of devolved government in Wales. The Welsh Government published a white paper on Tuesday outlining their plans for a new law on organ donation. They are seeking views in a consultation that will end on January 31st 2012.

Background

51 people died waiting for an organ transplant in Wales for 2010/11. Although record numbers of people in Wales donated organs last year (83), the Welsh Government hopes that a presumed consent law would boost organ donation rates by as much as 25% and reduce unnecessary suffering.

In a rare bit of good news in the Western Mail, Wales currently has the highest organ donation rate of the home nations and one of the highest organ donation rates in Europe (behind the likes of Spain). However donation rates for hearts in particular have fallen consistently over the last 20 years.

What's proposed?

A "soft opt out system" – whereby consent for organ donation would be presumed upon death unless the person opted out of the organ donation register when alive.

Doctors would still look at the organ donor register (options listed below) to see if the deceased has wished to donate their organs and would still seek the family views. The wishes of the deceased would be the overriding consideration. Consulting the family would make the families and medical professionals aware of unregistered objections and possible problems with transplanted organs (i.e lifestyle/behaviour issues).

The law would apply to:

Anyone over 18 who lives and dies in Wales.
Anyone over 18 who has lived in Wales for a certain length of time (the length of which is to be consulted).

The law would not apply to:

Anyone under 18.
Anyone over 18 who lives in Wales but dies elsewhere.
Anyone over 18 who doesn't have the capacity to understand the donation law or make a decision
Tourists and other visitors (anyone who doesn't ordinarily live in Wales).
Unidentified bodies

There are four proposed options for the new organ donor register:

Separate registers for objectors and non-objectors
A register only of those who have not objected
A register of only whose who have objected
No register, but an objection listed via the person's GP

A person would be able to opt out:

..........by "any and all methods put in place to enable an individual to make a confidential objection to donation in an easy and accessible manner". It would also "enable an individual to opt-out of donating all organs and tissues, or to opt-out of donating some organs or tissues."

Myths and rumours

It's time a few myths and rumours were scotched now. There won't be:

State ownership of the body – relatives would still be consulted as currently.

Organ harvesting – the transplantation procedures would remain exactly the same, donated organs would go to those who need them not automatically taken from every single dead person in Wales.

Sale of organs by the NHS – to suggest such is undeniably crass but I've already heard it/read it. Lesley Griffiths should stamp this ugly one out right now.

Donation to science – donated organs/tissues would only be used in transplant not stored for dissection, teaching or research. The dead won't end up in a Gunter von Hagens exhibition. The new law wouldn't change the procedures for donating bodies/organs/tissues to science either.

What are the arguments against?

There's clearly a liberty issue here – should the state have rights over the body after death? The good work to boost organ donation rates in Wales might be undermined if the system loses public confidence or makes people uncomfortable.

There are also moral and ethical questions – should organ donation be purely a gift? Would presumed consent violate religious beliefs about what should be done after death?

In my personal opinion because of the "soft opt-out" system proposed, controversy will be limited as long as the system for "opting-out" is well publicised and transparent.

If the Welsh Government had gone for a "hard opt-out" system – where consent would be presumed without consulting with relatives (unless the deceased had opted out) – then even liberal-minded people like myself would likely oppose the new law and it would be even more controversial.

No other pitfalls in sight?

On paper there shouldn't be any major constitutional or legal issues arising from this, though Alan Trench at Devolution Matters explores it in a bit more detail. Things are clearly a lot more complicated than appear.

Only xenotransplantation (transplantation between different species) is a reserved matter to Westminster if you go by the Scotland Act.

Transplantation requires consent as stipulated in the Human Tissues Act 2004, and under the proposed "soft" opt out system consent would still be sought.

Also, there's no sign that presumed consent would violate the Human Rights Act 1998 or the European Convention of Human Rights. Considering presumed consent is already used in several mainland European nations already, this was a given.

The only issues I can see arising are religious and ethical listed earlier, but the white paper does indicate that the Welsh Government would take personal/religious beliefs into account and are actively seeking such views for the consultation.

For students of politics, medicine or law, the Senedd debates in plenary and committee on this one could be worth watching...........

Regrets?

2011-11-10T15:53:00.001Z

"I regret about the capitalist system, if you want to go to history lessons perhaps I need to go back to Karl Marx and Engels and we could have a discussion about those issues."

Edwina Hart AM (Lab, Gower) - Minister for Business, Enterprise, Technology & Science.

Now I actually (want to) believe Edwina was trying to use dry humour but nonetheless.......

Carwyn clobbered on the economy

2011-11-09T17:24:00.001Z

Well it was gloves off in the Senedd at First Minister's Questions yesterday.

Carwyn Jones found himself and his government's record under attack from three directions, probably with an eye on budget negotiations, but suffered a particularly harsh attack from Ieuan Wyn Jones over Labour's handling of the Welsh economy.

Labour have pointed to several examples of their commitment to capital spending, but as IWJ quite rightly pointed out a large chunk of these projects have been completed or were announced by the previous Welsh Government. There's been little action on the economy and nothing but doom, gloom and finger pointing.

The First Minister correctly said that the Welsh Government doesn't have a bottomless pit of cash. He doesn't have a magic wand to fix all of our economic problems either. It's Labour's lack of ambition, vision and increasingly action that's going to come back and haunt him and the party.

May's election was a good one to lose on many levels. It's going to be Labour ministers making the cuts in Wales and it's increasingly going to be Labour ministers taking the blame for the stagnant Welsh economy. People are beginning to recognise Carwyn Jones, Edwina Hart, Lesley Griffiths, Leighton Andrews and Carl Sargeant and are starting to form opinions about them. It won't be long until some of Labour's election manifesto promises, such as an extra 500 PCSO's, seem lacklustre.

But hey that's what we voted for, right?

New schools and hospitals are not "infrastructure investments". They might be to Labour (and Plaid) but it's improved transport, energy infrastructure, research & development and business development that leads to economic growth. Labour (and again to a certain extent Plaid) are not making any distinction between social/public service investments and the things the economy – especially the private sector – need to restore confidence, provide jobs and wean Wales off seeing the public sector as the fallback position in good and bad times.

It should be done in downturns to temporarily boost the economy. But the Welsh Government needs to create the right conditions to enable growth, not be the growth.

Carwyn Jones accused Plaid of not having any big economic ideas of their own. But they did – Build for Wales – pounced upon by opposition parties as unworkable. It might very well have been but at least they made the effort.

The Liberal Democrats have supported a Welsh Stock Exchange since the idea was mooted in addition to business rate reforms. The Conservatives always have ideas on the economy – often stupidly ignored because of political tribalism.

Ieuan Wyn Jones was an imperfect Economy Minister but in government he put infrastructure (especially transport) and a more self-sufficient Welsh private sector (loans replacing grants) at the heart of economic policy. IWJ "got it" but his crime was being too slow.

Andrew Davies, IWJ and Kirsty Williams might not be in coalition, but with convincing three-pronged attacks they can certainly cause headaches for the Welsh Government and we saw a glimpse of what the next five years are going to be like on Tuesday.

Labour 0 – Opposition 3

Man of the Match - Ieuan Wyn Jones

If this Welsh Government don't make bold and wide-ranging attempts to turn around the Welsh economy – likely to be the primary concern of the electorate for the next decade - then Carwyn Jones, still one of the good guys in politics despite Tuesday's outbursts, might be in deep trouble.

Things just got a whole lot more uncomfortable for Labour. Perhaps that's what we've been crying out for in Wales.

How Wales is funded - a graphical representation

2011-11-07T18:14:00.001Z

There's been much discussion on the Welsh blogosphere over the last few weeks about the potential remit and outcomes of the Silk Commission and in particular possible changes to financing devolution in Wales.

Click on Wales
Two posts on Syniadau here and here.
Borthlas
Glyn Davies MP
Peter Black AM
Peter Hain MP and Paul Murphy MP at Wales Home
Welsh Ramblings here and here
Miserable Old Fart
Jonathan Edwards MP

........I'm sure there are plenty of others as well.

I thought it might be useful to illustrate of the current system(s) of funding Wales as well as a possible post-Silk Commission funding arrangement based on proposals in the Holtham Commission reports, which you can find here.

Firstly a disclaimer. The actual funding arrangements have a few intricacies (especially police and other local authority financing) so I've simplified things. I've also omitted certain sources of income (i.e. TV Licence Fees, student loan repayments, tuition fees) as well as non-identifiable expenditure (largely defence and foreign affairs spending but also money that's hard to allocate to a single UK nation or region).

How things work currently (click to enlarge)

Possible future funding arrangement (click to enlarge)

Together for Health - Labour's latest 5-year plan for the Welsh NHS

2011-11-04T18:01:00.000Z

This isn't the first time a Welsh Government has promised a "world class" NHS and Health Minister Lesley Griffiths (Lab, Wrexham) unveiled the latest five-year plan/vision to boost NHS performance.

To call it a "plan" is over-egging it a little. It's more like a rallying call or a rather grand ministerial statement. There's more promises of "delivery" that Carwyn Jones has said would be at the heart of his government. There's more promises of "sustainability" too, while accepting there are clear problems down the line such as an aging population, budget pressures and difficulties in recruiting the right staff.

There's an acknowledgement that the general public need to take better care of themselves and that some specialist services need to be centralised.

Lesley Griffiths accused Elin Jones (Plaid, Ceredigion) and Plaid Cymru of scaremongering over "downgrading hospitals", but Lesley's trying to dodge the issue. If services are to be centralised from several hospitals to one or two then the services at those several hospitals have clearly been downgraded in most people's definitions. Elin Jones is correct and isn't scaremongering at all, just telling the truth.

Before I'm accused of being partisan, in my opinion the Welsh Government's policy on centralisation is correct too. This blog isn't a criticism of Lesley Griffiths, the new vision, or trumpeting Elin Jones or Plaid in any way shape or form – quite the opposite.

Centralisation makes sense in many cases. There's nothing fundamentally wrong with "downgrading" certain functions at district hospitals, or redefining district hospitals role, or providing more care at (or closer to) home instead of general hospitals - if it can improve the quality of patient care and patient outcomes.

Wales is overly reliant on hospitals to provide rudimentary and long-term care (like managing illnesses such as diabetes and arthritis) at the expense of district hospitals and primary care centres. If we really want a world class NHS, we're going to need world class centres of excellence. This means that our larger hospitals are going to have to focus more on highly specialist, critical and expert care, while our district hospitals might lose such services but in turn become far more important in managing treatment and recovery.

"None (district hospitals) will be downgraded" is bollocks. There'll be clear "winners and losers" from this process but in the end I don't believe patients will be losers despite the inevitable psychological threat "downgrading" poses.

She doesn't need to shirk debate to justify it, as long as she puts across a good enough case. She can call it what it is – downgrading - she's in charge after all.

Lesley Griffiths has arguably the toughest job in Welsh politics. As soon as "downgrading" is out in the public domain by any means other than her own mouth and local councillors start getting in on the action - she's toast. She needs to be honest and up front now, not when the first services are centralised. Being health minister isn't one of these roles where you can pretend to be everybody's friend.

The general public rightly criticise politicians for not telling it like it is. Why are the Welsh Government afraid of defending their own policies properly?

Bridgend LDP Alternative Sites Consultation

2011-11-02T18:07:00.000Z

The Bridgend LocalDevelopment Plan (LDP) has entered the latest phase on the way towards full adoption. Each local authority in Wales needs to plan out how their areas will be developed and Bridgend's will set land use policy in the county until 2021.

The "Alternative Sites Consultation" is now taking place. These sites are not proposed by the council but by landowners, developers etc who believe that land should be included in the final LDP or who disagree with the land allocations in the draft LDP published earlier this year. Comments on these alternative sites are due in by December 9^th.

Some of the standout alternative sites:

Brewery Field – Bridgend Town Council want the Brewery Field allocated for a sheltered housing/extra care complex. Question marks remain about what will happen to the Brewery Field if/when the sports village at Island Farm is built, currently the draft LDP allocates it for bulky goods retail. There's no sign that any development there would be viable in the current economic climate and the land was effectively left out of the recent Bridgend town centre masterplan.

Bocam Park, Pencoed – Redrow want land between Bocam Park and the railway line reallocated for housing and an extension to the business park.

Ty Draw Farm, Pyle – A mixed residential & strategic employment development near junction 37 of the M4.

Ewenny Road, Maesteg – Persimmon Homes want an enlarged local service centre at the site, increased allocation for housing and as they put it "more flexibility required with employment provision". It's good news that this site is being properly considered for development and long overdue.

Waunscil Avenue – Paddle Homes are currently appealing against the latest refusal to build houses on this former railway embankment and are (for the umpteenth time) trying to get this land allocated for residential. Bridgend Council initially included the land for housing in the draft LDP but this was changed to green wedge/open space.

Island Farm – Developers HD Limited are seeking to have the land south of the proposed science park included for mixed use development. Merthyr Mawr Community Council, Island Farm Campaign for Action and residents on Island Farm Road are seeking to keep it as a green wedge. It looks as though HD Ltd will have won this battle considering successfully avoiding the sports village scheme being called in by the Welsh Government. This might be the last chance opponents to the sports village have to stop it.

South Wales Police HQ – The land to the north west of the police HQ is currently allocated for residential, but Watersone Estates want it reallocated for food retail. With the new ASDA and a Tesco Extra across the road, it seems like an odd place personally. The only major supermarket chain without a presence in the town or county is Morrisons, so I'm going to make an educated guess that this might be targeted at them should the land be redesignated.

Angleton Lodge – Opposite Glanrhyd Hospital and north of Wildmill alongside the "Black Path" between Sarn and Bridgend. Proposals for a residential development and an upgrade to community sports facilities. There would be flooding concerns for obvious reasons to anyone familiar with this piece of land.

Wern Ddu, land south of Penyfai and land north of Cefn Glas – IGH Properties are seeking to develop retail at Wern Ddu (under the M4 Ogmore viaduct near Sarn), up to 150 homes south of Pen-y-fai and as many as – wait for it – 3,000 homes between the south Wales mainline and Cefn Glas, stretching from Tondu Road to Llangewydd Court Farm.

It mirrors a withdrawn proposal by "Keyworker Homes" a few years back. My personal opinion is that a development on this scale is 15-20 years too soon, with Parc Derwen and the Porthcawl regeneration area likely to be the main focus for housing development in Bridgend county over the course of the LDP. I doubt I would be the only person in Bridgend who'll be shocked to see any of this happen.